Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Newly released records from the document trove are testaments to the depth and scale of Iran’s past nuclear research, showing the country’s scientists racing to master key technical challenges. […]The results of that work are still available to Iran, giving it a head start in the event its leaders decide to make a dash toward becoming a nuclear-weapons state, say U.S. and Middle Eastern weapons experts. – Washington Post  

The coronavirus crisis comes after years of crumbling confidence in the Iranian government, which has been unable to provide its people with relief from the grueling American sanctions imposed after the Trump administration’s exit in 2018 from the international nuclear deal. – Wall Street Journal 

Iran on Thursday stood by its decision to deny U.N. nuclear inspectors access to sites where they have questions about past activities, arguing that the agency’s case is based on “fabricated” Israeli intelligence. – Reuters  

An Iranian director who won last month the top prize at the Berlin Film Festival has been summoned to serve a 1-year prison sentence over his movies, his lawyer says. […]Rasoulof, who was sentenced to a year in prison in 2017, is a prominent critic of the Iranian government and has been banned by the authorities from making films. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Thursday called on all nations to hold Iran accountable for its nuclear commitments and said Tehran’s failure to report nuclear material was a clear violation of safeguard agreements. – Reuters 

The U.S. special representative for Iran said Thursday the Islamic Republic must “immediately” ensure inspectors have access to sites that harbor traces of nuclear material or activity. – Associated Press 

The commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said the coronavirus might be the result of a biological attack from the United States, according to a local news agency. – Fox News 

Two months after a U.S. drone strike killed a preeminent Iranian general, the Pentagon’s top two military leaders said President Donald Trump made the right decision, one that has deterred Iran’s terrorist activities in the region. – Military.com 

Tensions have escalated in the Persian Gulf region in the aftermath of U.S. president Donald Trump’s decision unilaterally to withdraw the United States from the agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear program. […]If war breaks out, American forces likely will attempt to secure Gulf air space by destroying or suppressing Iran’s air forces. – The National Interest 

Bobby Ghosh writes: The lingering European anger at Trump for his unilateral withdrawal is understandable. […]But their passivity in the face of Tehran’s nuclear brinkmanship is dangerous. It signals to the regime that nuclear blackmail works. The IAEA reports give the Europeans a face-saving way to extricate themselves from the corner into which they have painted themselves. – Bloomberg 

David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Frank Pabian write: The Institute’s last report on Project Midan left unanswered whether Iran had made a decision about which of five sites it would develop as an underground nuclear weapons test site. Newly acquired documents from the archive possibly suggest that the Lut Desert sites were emerging as more likely choices. The documents include excerpts from a geological and hydrological survey in the Lut desert. – Institute for Science and International Security

David Albright and Sarah Burkhard write: Under the “Amad Plan,” Iran put in place during the early 2000s a set of five facilities to develop and test key nuclear weapon components and associated diagnostic equipment. […]This document, from a collection of Excel files in the archive, appears to list all of the main nuclear weapons sites testing with propellants and high explosives and outfitted with high-speed diagnostic equipment. – Institute for Science and International Security 

Turkey

The U.S. is exploring ways to help NATO ally Turkey in its fight against Russian-backed Syrian forces, even though it has serious concerns about Ankara’s purchase of an advanced Russian missile system, the American envoy for Syria said Thursday. – Bloomberg 

European Union governments will consider on Friday whether to provide more money for migrants in Turkey, but will not accept that refugees are used as a bargaining tool, the EU’s top diplomat said. – Reuters 

Tension flared at Greece’s mainland border with Turkey early on Friday as volleys of tear gas were fired from the Turkish side of the fence towards Greek border guards. – Reuters 

The young men carrying sticks and knives arrived around sunset on Friday last week, as the Syrian-owned restaurants of Gaziantep’s busy Inönü Street were coming to life. […]Similar scenes have played out across Turkey since Ankara launched a counteroffensive last month to repel an assault by Assad and his Russian allies on Turkish-backed rebel groups in the last opposition stronghold of Idlib. – The Guardian 

James Durso writes: NATO should  take practical steps to get Turkey onside. Some give-and-take is required and, though Turkey needs the U.S. more than the U.S. needs Turkey, America’s interests will be more secure when Turkey is once again a NATO partner. – The Hill 

Jonathan Spyer writes: Now that Turkey has been allowed to strike back and slow the regime’s advance, Putin is likely to be looking to cement a new ceasefire, allowing for Ankara to claim some kind of achievement. […]It will be a tricky arrangement to achieve and to sell to both sides. It may well not last long. But it is what Russia’s strategic interests dictate. And Russia remains the decider in Syria west of the Euphrates. – Jerusalem Post  

Sinan Ulgen writes: As a result, Turkish policy makers may be forced to review their position on Turkey’s fast expanding military cooperation with Russia. Of key importance will be the fate of the S-400. It is difficult to imagine that Ankara would fully operationalize this system, triggering U.S. sanctions, at a time when the relationship with Russia has entered a conflictual phase, at least over Syria. – Bloomberg 

Arabian Peninsula

British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, criticized by some at home for British arms sales to Saudi Arabia, said on Thursday he was hopeful for a de-escalation this year in Yemen’s five-year-old civil war, in which London backs the Saudi-led coalition. – Reuters 

Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the U.S. dismissed the top two Democratic presidential contenders’ criticisms of her country, saying Thursday that candidates’ opinions tend to change once they become president. – Associated Press  

Saudi Arabia denounced Iran for granting Saudi citizens entry amid the coronavirus outbreak and urged it to reveal the identities of all Saudi nationals who had visited since the start of February, a government statement said on Thursday. – Reuters 

The Iranian military has long planned for a defensive naval war in the Persian Gulf, in which it would leverage its large fleet of fast attack boats toting antiship missiles to launch swarming hit-and-run attacks on adversaries in along Persian Gulf, with the ultimate goal of shutting down passage through the Straits of Hormuz. – The National Interest 

Korean Peninsula

The U.N. Security Council discussed North Korea’s latest ballistic missile tests Thursday and didn’t issue any statement but its five European members condemned the “provocative actions,” saying the test undermine regional and international peace, security and stability. – Associated Press 

The U.S. military is threatening to lay off thousands of Korean employees if the U.S. and South Korea fail to reach a deal on sharing defense costs. President Trump wants allies to pay more. – NPR 

South Korea issued a strongly worded protest on Friday against Japan’s decision to quarantine South Korean visitors for two weeks, as coronavirus containment measures ignited a fresh diplomatic row between the Asian nations. – Reuters 

Chinese authorities have told people to stay away from the border with North Korea, which has banned people from China to keep out the coronavirus, or risk being shot by North Korean guards, residents of the area said. – Reuters 

Afghanistan

A new network of Special Operations forces will serve as the backbone of a smaller U.S. military mission in Afghanistan, hunting Islamic State fighters as the United States withdraws and providing firepower against the Taliban if a peace agreement with the group crumbles, military officials said. – Washington Post 

An attack on a Shiite gathering in Kabul attended by opposition leader Abdullah Abdullah left 27 dead and dozens wounded on Friday, a government spokesman said. – Washington Post 

The International Criminal Court ruled that its chief prosecutor can open a wide-ranging investigation of possible war crimes in Afghanistan by the Taliban, Afghan government forces and U.S. troops. – Washington Post 

Defense Secretary Mark Esper said that secret addendums to the peace agreement with the Taliban signed in Doha, Qatar, on Feb. 29 address violence reduction, reversing prior statements. – Washington Examiner 

The United States is seeking U.N. Security Council backing for the ambitious peace deal it signed with the Taliban aimed at ending America’s longest war and bringing U.S. troops home from Afghanistan. – Associated Press   

The Pentagon on Wednesday played down the gravity of new Taliban attack in Afghanistan that cast doubts on a four-day old peace deal between the insurgent group and the United States. – Agence France-Presse 

International Criminal Court judges authorized a far-reaching investigation Thursday of war crimes and crimes against humanity allegedly committed by Afghan government forces, the Taliban, American troops and U.S. foreign intelligence operatives. – Associated Press 

Earlier on Thursday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called the surge in violence in Afghanistan “unacceptable” and warned both the Taliban and the Afghan government that it would need to stop for peace talks to move forward, while maintaining that Taliban leadership remained committed to the agreement. – The Hill 

Mark Mazzetti and Ismail Khan write: And yet American leaders wrestled with just how much to push Pakistan to cut ties to the Taliban, worried that pressure from Washington could undermine the military’s grip on the nuclear-armed country and lead to an Islamist takeover of Pakistan. This “too big to fail” attitude led to Pakistan having outsize influence over the strategy for America’s flailing war in Afghanistan. – New York Times

Asia

The Armed Forces of the Philippines is validating information that about 2,000 to 3,000 Chinese soldiers are in the country, calling it a “matter of serious concern.” – CNN 

The U.S. Department of Justice has delayed the return to Malaysia of another $240 million of recovered money allegedly stolen from the 1MDB sovereign fund, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter said on Friday, with one citing political uncertainty. – Reuters 

Editorial: You’d think Chinese Communist authorities and their hugely unpopular representatives in the city would breathe a sigh of relief and focus on keeping the population healthy. Instead, they chose last week to escalate the repression of opposition leaders. […]Why now? It may be that Beijing sees an opportunity to dispose of key opponents in Hong Kong while the country and the world are preoccupied with the epidemic. – Washington Post 

Europe

OPEC reached a preliminary agreement to cut crude output by 1 million barrels a day to support oil prices through the end of the year, as the cartel seeks to persuade Russia to join its response to the coronavirus outbreak. – Wall Street Journal

The dearth of visitors in Italy’s financial capital offers a glimpse into how the new coronavirus is hitting demand for goods and services. It could be a harbinger of recessions in both Italy and in the broader European Union as the epidemic expands. Italian companies face canceled orders from foreign customers and disrupted international supply chains as Chinese production grinds to a halt. – Wall Street Journal 

Michel Barnier, the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, warned of “serious divergences” with the U.K after the two sides ended their first week of negotiations over their future relationship. – Bloomberg    

Ukraine fired its top prosecutor in a move that risks alienating international donors who backed him to clean up one of the country’s most corrupt institutions. – Bloomberg  

The US Navy supports, and is anticipating, sending an additional two destroyers to Rota, Spain, which would bring the total number to six DDGs based in Europe. – Defense News 

A Metropolitan police officer has been arrested on suspicion of being a member of a banned group linked to rightwing terrorism. […]The arrest relates to suspected membership of a proscribed organisation linked to rightwing terrorism, but the Met said there is nothing to suggest there is any threat to the wider public. – The Guardian

As thousands of people near Turkey’s border with Greece wait to cross over to the European Union, a migration deal the EU and Turkey reached four years ago has become a political football. The two sides accuse each other of failing to respect their commitments. – Associated Press 

Eli Lake: And downgrading the U.S.-U.K. relationship now, in the face of a rising China, would signal a divided front against a potent adversary. The good news for the U.S.-U.K. relationship is that the House of Commons still has an opportunity to reverse Johnson’s Huawei decision. […]If enough Tories break with their leader, there is a chance the U.K. can save itself from Johnson’s error — and in the process preserve their country’s most important alliance. – Bloomberg  

Paul Hockenos writes: A broader coalition of willing European states should be formed to relieve the current crisis. There is ample evidence that ordinary Germans are prepared to accept a new influx of refugees, even if their own national government is hesitant. […]The EU has prevaricated and shamed on migration, and now a crisis has arrived at its shores that was foreseeable in every way. Merkel’s only response has been to offer Erdogan more money, in hopes of buying more time to uncertain end. – Foreign Policy 

North America

A federal judge on the government’s secretive surveillance court said Justice Department and FBI personnel who are under scrutiny for their conduct in a case involving a former Trump campaign aide are barred from participating in the surveillance warrant application process. – CBS News

Justin Trudeau’s industry minister said Canada won’t be strong-armed into a decision on restricting a Chinese technology giant’s access to next-generation wireless networks. – Bloomberg 

U.S. national security officials are recommending that President Donald Trump block Infineon Technologies AG’s proposed acquisition of Cypress Semiconductor Corp., according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg  

Sens. Rick Scott, R-Fla., and Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, introduced a bill Thursday to reduce the risks of training foreign nationals on American military bases — a reaction to the deadly December terrorist attack on Naval Air Station Pensacola. – Fox News 

Cybersecurity

Huawei Technologies Co. is bidding to convince citizens in Australia, one of America’s closest allies, that its telecom gear is safe—a grass-roots fight against the government’s decision to exclude the Chinese company from its 5G build-out. – Wall Street Journal 

Facebook Inc. removed Trump campaign ads that referred to a census, saying they violated a company policy aimed at preventing disinformation and other interference with the nationwide 2020 census, which goes online next week. – Wall Street Journal   

Senior Conservative MPs will try to pass a law next week to ensure that the UK’s telecoms networks, including 5G mobile phone infrastructure, do not contain any Huawei equipment after 2022. – Financial Times 

The United States and the United Kingdom have agreed to “further” reduce Huawei’s presence in telecom infrastructure, U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said at a Pentagon press conference Thursday. – Defense One 

A campaign of pressure from the White House has Europe’s advocates of a “digital services” tax that targets U.S. companies such as Facebook and Amazon backing down for the time being as they look for alternative means to enact the tax, a global approach that would give the United States a buy-in. – Washington Examiner  

Members of Congress are concerned about the size of the Department of Defense’s cyber force. – Fifth Domain 

Grover G. Norquist writes: Government officials are urged to use hypersecure devices to ensure they will not be hacked — and for good reason. It’s certainly interesting that at the same time, some government officials are calling to limit encryption on regular Americans’ phones. […]The bottom line is that encryption secures our critical infrastructure, promotes innovation, and protects both American citizens and businesses from cyberthreats or government overreach. The government shouldn’t meddle with that. – Washington Examiner

Missile Defense

The Army is trying to ease the burden on its frequently deployed air and missile defense soldiers, as well as address what some lawmakers call a “modern-day missile gap” facing troops. – Army Times

How many hypersonic weapons does the Pentagon intend to buy? Top officials won’t say. To be clear, we’re not talking about the number of types of Mach-5-plus missiles. – Defense One 

The Marine Corps is all in on fielding mobile anti-ship missiles in the Pacific to challenge China’s growing Navy, declaring it in written testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee’s seapower subcommittee to be its highest ground modernization priority. – Defense News