Fdd's overnight brief

Russia

Ukrainian forces are seeking to roll back Russian gains as Moscow shifts its focus to controlling a swath of the country’s south and east. – Wall Street Journal 

President Biden appeared to call for Vladimir Putin’s ouster in a speech Saturday, saying the Russian president’s invasion of Ukraine had ignited a “new battle for freedom” between democracies and autocracies. – Wall Street Journal 

President Biden’s remark that Russian President Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power” came under fire for muddying U.S. policy and threatening to undermine diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal 

The de facto buyers’ strike on Russian crude that began a month ago propelled oil prices to their highest levels in years. Now the real effects are starting to create a second wave of impact on oil markets, disrupting Russian exports and threatening further price increases. – Wall Street Journal 

Nasdaq-listed Yandex, which runs the largest Russian search engine and ride-hailing service, is caught between its local customers and regulators on the one hand, and American technology and finance on the other. The latest flashpoint is the potential sale of its media interests, which consist of a news-aggregation service similar to Google News and a social platform called Zen. – Wall Street Journal 

Russia’s decision to change its Ukraine war plan underscores how Moscow is trying to secure territory closest to its own border that it has coveted for years and sets the stage for brutal fighting in an area already devastated by more than a month of war.- Wall Street Journal 

When Russia unveiled previously secret details of its nuclear-weapons doctrine for the first time in 2020, it confirmed something U.S. war planners had long suspected: Moscow would be willing to use atomic arms to keep from losing a conventional war. – Wall Street Journal 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is further driving up the price of renewable-energy projects, which were already facing supply-chain strains and raw-materials increases before the war. – Wall Street Journal 

President Biden’s declaration that Russian leader Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power” threatens to push deeply strained U.S.-Russia relations closer to collapse, former officials and analysts said, with potentially serious implications for Washington’s ability to help steer the war in Ukraine to an end and avoid a wider conflict. – Washington Post 

Satellite images and videos verified by The Washington Post show that in recent weeks, Russian-backed forces began building a camp just east of the besieged city of Mariupol, Ukraine. – Washington Post 

President Biden’s high-stakes speech in Warsaw on Saturday was crafted with the intent of throwing the full weight of the United States behind its European allies, while framing the Russian invasion of Ukraine as part of a global “battle between democracy and autocracy.” – New York Times 

Russian forces redoubled attacks on strategic targets across Ukraine on Sunday, with fierce fighting reported around the capital, Kyiv, amid signs that the besieged city of Mariupol was close to falling. – New York Times 

Administration officials and lawmakers stressed on Sunday that the United States was not seeking regime change in Russia over President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine despite President Biden’s comment that the Russian leader “cannot remain in power.” – New York Times 

When Ukrainian forces hit a Russian tank with an American-made Javelin missile on a highway on the northern reaches of the capital, Kyiv, the explosion was so huge that it tossed the turret 10 yards down the road and shredded the rest of the vehicle and the men inside. – New York Times 

Russian mercenaries with combat experience in Syria and Libya are gearing up to assume an increasingly active role in a phase of the war in Ukraine that Moscow now says is its top priority: fighting in the country’s east. – New York Times 

Russia signaled a possible recalibration of its war aims in Ukraine on Friday as the Kremlin faced spreading global ostracism for the brutal invasion, hardened Western economic punishments and a determined Ukrainian resistance that appeared to be making some gains on the ground. – New York Times 

Russia struck military targets in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv with high-precision cruise missiles, the Russian defence ministry said on Sunday. – Reuters 

Finland’s national railway operator said on Friday it would suspend services between Helsinki and Saint Petersburg in Russia on Monday, closing the rail link between Russia and the European Union.- Reuters 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has invoked author J.K. Rowling, the creator of the “Harry Potter” book series, while accusing the West of trying to “cancel” Russia. – The Hill 

Chief Ukrainian negotiator David Arakhamia said on Sunday that the next round of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia would take place on Monday in Turkey. – The Hill 

NATO Deputy-General Secretary Mircea Geoana says that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s month-old “barbaric war” against Ukraine is a war he cannot win. – Associated Press 

The Czech Republic has frozen assets worth millions of dollars belonging to Russian tycoons under sanctions, Prime Minister Petr Fiala told national TV. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

The president of Latvia argued today that if NATO had reacted more strongly in 2008 to Russian aggression against neighboring Georgia and the Kremlin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, Moscow wouldn’t have invaded Ukraine. – USNI News 

Editorial: Whatever Mr. Biden and fellow Western leaders do, their goal should be to maximize impact on Russia and minimize harm to the nations supporting Ukraine, while recognizing that no war has ever been won without some sacrifice. It’s worth taking some time to get that right — but not too much time. “My point is: unity. Unity,” Mr. Biden declared in Brussels on Thursday. On energy security, he also needs to make a point about urgency. – Washington Post 

Editorial: We expect Biden sheepishly apologized to his staff (again) for having to do damage control, and to the allies for undermining them and for handing Putin some first-rate propaganda grist. But at 79 he’s not going to stop — again, he’s been doing this his entire adult life. – New York Post 

Holman W. Jenkins Jr. writes: Right now, Mr. Putin and his regime seem likely to survive the Ukraine debacle, at least in the short term. But there is no end in sight that doesn’t leave him in far worse shape than when he started. This, I suspect, is a perfectly satisfactory outcome for the Western allies, with the details of any eventual cease-fire being distinctly secondary. Those details aren’t secondary to 44 million Ukrainians who, by their actions, have created a great nation, mobilized the free world and still hold important cards to play in the crisis. – Wall Street Journal 

Tunku Varadarajan writes: The Russian army’s astonishing underperformance in Ukraine has been attributed to a combination of Ukrainian heroism and rock-bottom morale among Russian soldiers. Bill Browder points to a third explanation: corruption. “My estimate,” he says, “is that 80% of the military budget is stolen by Russia’s generals, because 80% of all budgets in Russia are stolen by the officials in charge.” – Wall Street Journal 

Eileen O’Connor writes: The only people who can truly sway Mr. Putin are ideologues who share his views, the so-called siloviki. The word literally means people with force — the power that comes from being in the security forces or military. These insiders have been with Mr. Putin since his days in the K.G.B. or in the St. Petersburg municipal government, and they see themselves as protectors of Russia’s power and prestige. […]To influence them, the West must prioritize the things that they believe give Russia its superpower status: its oil and its military. – New York Times 

Harry J. Kazianis writes: We got another quick correction in a trip filled with corrections — as when Biden implied US troops were headed into Ukraine, telling some Friday that they’ll witness Ukrainian bravery “when you’re there.” Nothing can be more dangerous than when the world doubts America’s resolve — or questions her policies on matters of war and peace. That can only mean chaos is ahead. – New York Post 

Max Hastings writes: The word of Putin or his spokesman is, of course, worthless. It is certainly unlikely that Russia would launch ballistic missiles against the West: however unstable its president, he knows that this would provoke the obliteration of his own country. Bloomberg 

Tobin Harshaw writes: It’s become pretty reflexive in the media these days to say that the sanctions being imposed by the U.S. and its allies on Russia are “unprecedented.” Even the Treasury Department is letting the superlatives fly. But as the wise man once said (in my case, the wise man was Allan M. Siegal, the legendary standards editor of the New York Times): Nothing is unprecedented. – Bloomberg 

Hal Brands writes: Putin seems to think he can break Ukraine’s will through brutal siege tactics and threats of escalation, perhaps involving chemical or radiological weapons. He is using artillery and air attacks to try to destroy Ukraine’s economy and defense-industrial capabilities, as his forces reposition to press the offensive in the east. He still has powerful non-kinetic weapons, such as cyberattacks, that he can use against the West, and may hope that cascading economic turmoil will weaken his enemies’ enthusiasm for sanctions over time. – Bloomberg 

Dalibor Rohac writes: Today, the idea of a ‘post-Suez’ Russia, chastened by its military setbacks in Ukraine and crippling effects of Western sanctions, is an attractive one. Yet we might come to regret believing it and using it as a pretext to double down on our bet that Ukraine alone, without us, can bring Russia’s invasion to a satisfactory conclusion. – The Spectator 

Ben Cahill writes: Full sanctions on Russian exports would be a pivotal moment for the oil market, potentially touching off a sustained high price cycle with few precedents. The effects could include demand destruction, a significant reordering of crude and product flows, and much stronger policy efforts in Europe and elsewhere to reduce oil demand. – Center for Strategic and International Studies 

Peter Brookes writes: The point here is that there are plenty of reasons to be concerned about Russia’s potential use of chemical weapons in Ukraine—and it’s not only the possibility of a false flag operation to justify its unprovoked and unjust invasion of its neighbor. – Heritage Foundation 

Anthony B. Kim writes: Unambiguously, the effectiveness of the ongoing sanctions and the spillover effects on other countries necessitate deeper and greater analysis for sure. However, there is no question that the sanctions so far have started to bite Putin’s war economy. – Heritage Foundation 

Andrew Lohsen writes: If Russia retains control over southern Ukraine and proceeds to create new pseudo-states there, Western policymakers should act decisively. First, they should support Ukraine in holding puppet leaders accountable and deterring would-be collaborators. – War on the Rocks 

Afghanistan

The BBC urged the Taliban on Sunday to reverse what it said was an order to remove international broadcasters from Afghan airwaves, which has blocked the British broadcaster’s news bulletins. – Agence France-Presse 

The United States expects the Taliban to reverse its decision to keep girls out of Afghan schools “in coming days”, US special envoy Thomas West said Saturday. – Agence France-Presse 

The Taliban have told airlines in Afghanistan that women cannot board domestic or international flights without a male chaperone, two sources told Reuters on Sunday. – Reuters 

The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) said the Taliban has ordered broadcasters to take its news programs off the air in Afghanistan. – The Hill 

Dipali Mukhopadhyay writes: For the United States, its Western allies, Afghanistan’s neighbors, and Afghans themselves, neither the Taliban’s collapse nor consolidation bodes well. […]A more powerful Taliban, wrapped in unmatched glory, might make room for other extremists to flourish, just as they did in the 1990s. Ultimately, whether the Taliban fail or succeed, the fallout for the Afghan people and blowback on the international community will be substantial. Such is the nature of a revolutionary victory like this one. – Foreign Affairs 

Israel

Israel’s meeting with top diplomats from four Arab countries and the United States, set to start on Sunday, is one of the strongest signs yet that the country is beginning to reap the dividends of normalization deals reached two years ago, a profound realignment of Middle Eastern powers that has been accelerated by the war in Ukraine. – New York Times 

When he joins a summit on Sunday focused on Middle East unity, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will ask some of the region’s top diplomats to rally behind another cause: helping Ukraine repel Russia’s invasion. – New York Times 

The militant Islamic State group claimed responsibility on Monday after a pair of Arab gunmen killed two people and wounded four in central Israel before they were killed by police. – Associated Press 

Israel will appoint a military attache to the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain soon, the Israeli ambassador to Manama said on Monday as the Gulf monarchy and three other Arab states took part in a rare summit in Israel. – Reuters 

Israel and the United States will cooperate in preventing a nuclear-armed Iran despite disagreements they have over an emerging nuclear deal, Israel’s foreign minister said on Sunday. – Reuters 

Police were placed on the highest level of alert across Israel on Monday, a day after two ISIS-affiliated terrorists shot and killed two Border Policemen in the northern city of Hadera. Checkpoints will be set up on major thoroughfares throughout the country and security forces will be heavily deployed in highly trafficked areas. – Jerusalem Post 

In the wake of a terror attack in Hadera, there are claims that ISIS has claimed responsibility for the attack. However claims like this require more confirmation because ISIS or ISIS-affiliated networks often claim responsibility for attacks that they had no role in, or that they merely inspired. – Jerusalem Post 

Hezbollah considers the terror attack in Hadera an example of Palestinian “steadfastness in confronting the occupation.” – Jerusalem Post 

The US appreciates Israel’s efforts to stop Russia’s war on Ukraine, including sanctions implementation, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s efforts to mediate between the sides and humanitarian aid, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Jerusalem on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post 

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on Sunday urged the US to listen to its allies in the Middle East concerned over the possibility of removing Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) from a list of terror groups as part of efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. – Algemeiner 

Hamas does not want an escalation with Israel during the upcoming month of Ramadan, though it is likely to pursue terrorist attacks in the West Bank, Israeli defense officials told news site Walla. – Algemeiner 

Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Mahmoud Abbas on Sunday criticized what he described as the West’s “double standards” that he said penalized Russia over its invasion of Ukraine while ignoring alleged Israeli “crimes” against the Palestinians. – Arutz Sheva 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemned Sunday’s terrorist attack in Hadera in which two Israelis were murdered. – Arutz Sheva 

Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US Ambassador to the United Nations, condemned Sunday’s shooting attack in the city of Hadera, in which Border Police officers Yezan Falah and Shirel Abukarat were murdered. – Arutz Sheva 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah on Sunday, ahead of a diplomatic summit with the foreign ministers of Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Egypt in the southern Negev Desert. – Times of Israel 

Editorial: So the diplomats assembling in one of the luxury hotels that now sparkle here and there in the Negev would do well to reflect on this man who built a state in the shadow of the Holocaust and in the face of Arab hostility. He was of diminutive stature but of legendary will. That will is what is needed as Israel and her neighbors face their common foe at Tehran. No doubt the Old Man would have been smiling. – New York Sun  

Editorial: A meeting in Israel that includes top diplomats from four Arab countries would have been unimaginable just a couple of years ago. Israel is firmly on the diplomatic map. Against the backdrop of the Iranian threat and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which brought about the parley, the Negev Summit itself provides welcome room for optimism. – Jerusalem Post 

Editorial: The proximity of the two attacks that managed to sneak under the radar of Israel’s intelligence and security apparatuses, especially now before Ramadan and Passover are set to overlap, should serve as a rude awakening to all of us for fear they may inspire more copycats. – Ynet 

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia underwent a widespread and coordinated barrage of attacks on Friday after Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched drones into the neighboring kingdom, targeting oil facilities and other state institutions, the rebel group and Saudi state media said. – Washington Post 

Saudi Arabia’s civil defence has extinguished fires at two fuel storage tanks in the Red Sea port city of Jeddah that were hit in an attack by Yemen’s Houthis, state television reported on Saturday. – Reuters 

Saudi blogger Raif Badawi, who was jailed for ten years and subsequently sentenced to 1,000 lashes for “insulting Islam” and promoting debate on secularism online, was released this month. – Business Insider 

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett expressed Israel’s “sorrow” to Saudi Arabia on Saturday following a wave of Yemen Houthi attacks, in a rare public message to the country with which it lacks formal ties. – Agence France-Presse 

Editorial: The long relationship will endure ups and downs. But in all dealings with Saudi Arabia, Mr. Biden should stand by the principles that Khashoggi so passionately cared for, however much it discomfits the pouty monarch in Riyadh. – Washington Post 

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Iran now understands that without a deal, its need to pretend that it isn’t destabilizing the region can be reduced. In short, it can now lift the veil on more attacks beyond the recent attacks on Jeddah in Saudi Arabia and the attack on Erbil in Iraq. – Jerusalem Post  

Mohammed Alyahya writes: And it is not lost on America’s regional allies now that, even as Biden asks Saudi Arabia to raise oil production to help support the campaign against Russia over Ukraine, he is granting sanctions waivers to Russia so that it can continue to guarantee the nuclear deal with Iran that it helped broker — in part by husbanding Iran’s uranium reserves and protecting its underground nuclear facilities filled with illegal centrifuges spinning material for weapons.  Jerusalem Post 

Ali Asseri writes: Subsequent irritants have also been worked out through mutual consultations. Pragmatism must prevail again in order to sustain the reform process in Saudi Arabia and overcome the current energy crisis in the world. It is time to heal the unfortunate wounds of the recent past and rebuild a strategic partnership that continues into the future. – The National Interest 

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s political division runs so deep now that the country can’t agree where the next president should live and work. – Wall Street Journal 

Four years ago, the U.S. and its allies won the support of Russia and China to bring tough sanctions against North Korea in response to an intercontinental-ballistic missile launch. Now, Kim Jong Un’s regime has launched a more-powerful ICBM. – Wall Street Journal 

The United States called Friday for tougher U.N. sanctions after North Korea said it test-fired its biggest intercontinental ballistic missile to date, with Kim Jong Un vowing to expand his country’s “nuclear war deterrent” while preparing for a “long-standing confrontation” with the United States. – Associated Press 

North Korea will continue to develop “formidable striking capabilities” that cannot be bartered or sold for anything, leader Kim Jong Un said, according to state media on Monday, as he visited workers involved with the country’s biggest missile test. – Reuters 

The “monster” Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) shown this week in North Korean state media after the country’s biggest test-fire ever is likely from an earlier launch, analysts said after examining the images and video. – Reuters 

China and Russia should tell North Korea to avoid more “provocations” after it resumed intercontinental ballistic missile testing this week, U.S. State Department spokesperson Jalina Porter said on Friday. – Reuters 

South Korea’s President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol asked Chinese President Xi Jinping for close coordination on North Korea’s complete denuclearisation, Yoon’s office said on Friday. – Reuters 

The United States needs to deploy its Next Generation Interceptor by 2028 or sooner to keep pace with North Korea’s accelerating ballistic missile program, most recently demonstrated in Pyongyang’s successful test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile Thursday, Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerck told the Senate Armed Services Committee. – USNI News 

Editorial: For President Biden, as for his predecessors, North Korea’s dangerous gambits pose a serious challenge. Mr. Kim continues to test missiles in defiance of sanctions and U.N. Security Council resolutions. The United States has insisted on a complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, but negotiations with Pyongyang have been long stalled. […]There is a need for some fresh thinking about how to resolve this long-festering threat. – Washington Post 

South Asia

China and India took a tentative step toward repairing their damaged ties, with Beijing’s top diplomat making his first visit to New Delhi since a deadly clash along their disputed border region. – Wall Street Journal 

As a sportsman, Imran Khan led an underdog Pakistan team to victory at cricket’s World Cup. Now he is drawing on that competitive spirit as he tries to come from behind to win a vote that will determine his fate as prime minister. – Wall Street Journal 

Gazprom (GAZP.MM) has asked India’s largest gas transmitter GAIL (India) (GAIL.NS) to pay for gas imports in euros instead of dollars, two sources said, in a sign the Russian energy giant seeks to wean itself away from the U.S. currency in the wake of the Ukraine conflict. – Reuters 

A senior White House official said on Friday India’s position at the United Nations over the crisis in Ukraine has been “unsatisfactory” but was also unsurprising given its historical relationship with Russia. – Reuters 

India is leaning toward continuing to import coking coal from Russia, the steel minister said on Sunday, seeming to buck a global trend to shun Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. – Reuters 

Gordon G. Chang writes: Therefore, talking with China has a price for America, and the price could be long-term alienation of the world’s most populous democracy. If America wants India to commit on Ukraine, therefore, America will have to ditch China and commit to India. Washington, unfortunately, has rarely been able to see the world from the viewpoint of New Delhi. – The Hill 

Jeff M. Smith writes: One hopes India will use what influence it does have with Russia to privately convey the importance of ending the conflict as soon as possible. But rather than publicly condemning India for abstaining at the United Nations or imposing sanctions for its purchase of Russian military hardware or energy, the U.S. government should recognize the complex India-Russia relationship for what it is: a relic of the Cold War, under duress and showing signs of age. – Heritage Foundation 

Sitara Noor writes: Regardless of whether the missile launch was accidental or intentional, this incident is a stark reminder that South Asia remains a nuclear flashpoint with any Broken Arrow potentially turning into a NucFlash. It also exposes the disproportionate focus on Pakistan alone and stark negligence of India’s poor nuclear safety and security record by Western scholars and governments alike. One hopes that this incident leads to some introspection in the Indian security establishment and the Indian government is willing to answer some hard questions – The National Interest 

Europe

The U.S. is ramping up shipments of liquefied natural gas to Europe this year as the continent mounts a world-wide hunt for new supplies to phase out its reliance on Russian energy after the invasion of Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is demanding that the United States and its allies send more weapons and ratchet up sanctions, portraying some leaders as timid in the face of Russian aggression. His escalation of criticism comes one day after President Biden extemporaneously declared that Russian President Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power.” – Washington Post 

President Biden traveled to this southeastern Polish city Friday to visit U.S. troops deployed along NATO’s eastern fringe as a bulwark against Russian incursion, and to laud Poland’s humanitarian role in welcoming more than 2 million Ukrainian refugees. – Washington Post 

The United States announced a deal with European leaders on Friday to increase shipments of natural gas to help wean Europe off Russian energy. And Germany set an ambitious goal of halving its imports of Russian oil and coal this year and freeing itself from its dependence on Russian natural gas by the middle of 2024. – New York Times 

In another impassioned speech to European Union leaders, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine called on Hungary to make clear whether it supported Russia or Ukraine in the growing battle over its neighbor. – New York Times 

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, speaking by video to a major policy conference in Qatar on Saturday, urged that nation and other energy producers to increase their gas exports to Europe as part of a drive to reduce the continent’s reliance on Russian fossil fuels. – New York Times 

After the White House announced this week that President Biden would visit Poland, the Kremlin let rip with a belligerent tirade: Polish leaders were a “vassal” of the United States, gripped by “pathological Russophobia,” and their country a “community of political imbeciles.” – New York Times 

Germany is considering purchasing a missile defence system to shield against a potential attack from Russia, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said late on Sunday. – Reuters 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday that his country would consider neutral status as part of a peace deal if such an agreement was guaranteed by third parties and put to a referendum. – Reuters  

Ukraine is willing to become neutral and compromise over the status of the eastern Donbass region as part of a peace deal, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday, even as another top Ukrainian official accused Russia of aiming to carve the country in two. – Reuters 

Traders have exported the first supplies of Ukrainian corn to Europe by train as the country’s sea ports remain blocked due to the Russian invasion, APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said on Sunday. – Reuters 

The Czech Republic is considering buying more military helicopters from U.S. maker Bell, Defence Minister Jana Cernochova was quoted as saying on Saturday, part of plans to modernise its army following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. – Reuters 

Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova on Sunday said that a failure to preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty against Russia’s invasion would mean that “brutality, oligarchy and war criminals prevail on our planet.” – The Hill 

Editorial: Net zero is a wish, not an energy-security strategy. Other governments in Europe are grudgingly making their peace with this reality and responding accordingly. The political danger for Mr. Johnson is that if he refuses to do likewise, voters eventually will search for a leader who will. – Wall Street Journal 

Thomas D. Grant writes: President Volodymyr Zelensky, affirming that Ukraine won’t accept ultimatums, sees the danger of accepting Mr. Putin’s terms. If the world wants peace and a secure Europe, then it shouldn’t impose a settlement on Ukraine that ignores lessons from places where Russia got the endgames it demanded. – Wall Street Journal 

Andy Kessler writes: New technology for use in commerce often emerges after the smoke of battle clears. World War I produced tanks, field radios and improved airplanes. World War II brought radar, penicillin, nuclear power, synthetic rubber, Jeeps and even duct tape. What we are seeing in Ukraine is the asymmetric power of pervasive inexpensive commercial technology, especially citizen-empowering social networks and crowdsourcing. So far these tools have been altering the war’s outcome. Welcome to 21st-century warfare. – Wall Street Journal 

Sean Monaghan writes: Perhaps Ukraine can also benefit from the addition of the JEF to Europe’s security architecture. As Secretary Truss also said, “New agreements between like-minded countries, even when you’re not part of them, are there to be celebrated.” Taking a more pragmatic tone, President Zelensky seemed to agree with her when he addressed the JEF leaders in London last week: “We emphasize that we need new formats of interaction, new determination. And if we cannot enter NATO’s ‘open door,’ then we must work with communities available, communities that will help us. Like yours.” – Center for Strategic and International Studies 

Alexis Mrachek writes: Moldova and the U.S. face common threats and share common goals. Because it borders Ukraine and desires to align itself with the West, Moldova matters more than ever. Washington must take notice and help in her and Ukraine’s hour of need. – Heritage Foundation 

The Americas

El Salvador’s congress approved emergency powers that suspend constitutional guarantees and loosen arrest rules for 30 days to combat a record wave of gang-related killings that forced the closing of businesses and the suspension of public events over the weekend. – Wall Street Journal 

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador on Friday brushed off comments by a senior U.S. military official who said there are more Russian spies in Mexico than anywhere else in the world. – Associated Press 

The International Monetary Fund’s executive board on Friday approved a $45 billion program for Argentina after more than a year of negotiations, two sources with direct knowledge said, allowing the South American grains exporter to avoid a costly default with the Washington-based lender. – Reuters 

Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes: That said, El Salvador’s new law making it mandatory for merchants to accept bitcoin as payment, despite its volatility, reeks of authoritarianism. The government’s Chivo wallet—where Salvadorans who don’t want to hold the bitcoin they are forced to accept can exchange it for a government-issued stablecoin backed by the full faith and credit of El Salvador—would seem to defeat the purpose of using a cryptocurrency to escape central banking. – Wall Street Journal 

Cybersecurity

American and European Union leaders said on Friday that they had reached an “agreement in principle” to assure that it is legal to transfer personal data across the Atlantic, after a previous pact was struck down when a court found it did not do enough to shield Europeans from American surveillance programs. – New York Times 

Recent White House warnings urging the private sector to shore up its cyber defenses have experts questioning why U.S. officials haven’t already defined what constitutes cyberwarfare. – The Hill 

For an insurance industry trying to recover from a surge in ransomware attacks, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brings another potential threat: a new front in an escalating cyber war. – Financial Times 

The Biden administration has offered ominous warnings about looming Russian cyberattacks. But another reality is equally foreboding: The U.S. may have too many targets to defend them all. – Politico 

Google has released a report identifying two North Korean government hacking campaigns that exploited a Google Chrome 0-day. – The Record 

Maia Nikoladze writes: In sum, U.S. cybersecurity export controls on Russia are likely to succeed when the United States and its allies have near-monopolistic control over the production process of an item. U.S. export controls are likely to be less successful in thwarting Russia’s ability to build up offensive cyber capabilities given that intrusion software and IP network communications surveillance are more easily obtainable domestically and internationally. – The National Interest 

Brandon Valeriano writes: Abstract discussions of what can be done to help the Ukrainian people may transform into a moral imperative at some point. However, if that happens, it does not mean that technological tools can be leveraged to minimize violence. There is no sanitizing violence through cyber operations. Cyber operations do not offer a magical solution to the conflict, and anyone selling this bill of goods has clearly moved on from slinging swampland in Florida. – The National Interest 

Benjamin R. Young writes: It is clear now that North Korean hackers view the Global South as vulnerable cyber terrain. It is imperative that governments and banks in the developing world bolster their cyber defenses and indicate to their employees the importance of up-to-date cybersecurity measures in preventing cyber intrusions. Cybersecurity training is imperative in order to deter North Korea’s increasingly sophisticated and aggressive cyber attacks. – The National Interest 

Long War

The only trial in U.S. court for a member of an infamous terrorist cell is set to begin Tuesday, as El Shafee Elsheikh stands accused of taking part in the capture and murder of journalists and aid workers by the Islamic State. – Washington Post 

Tunisian police forces have dismantled about 150 militant cells in the past six months, a spokesman for the National Guard said on Saturday. – Reuters 

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Monday that Israeli security forces must adapt to the “new threat” posed by Islamic State supporters, after two people were killed in a shooting attack in Hadera, the second attack linked to the militant group in Israel within a week. – Haaretz