Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The Palestinian militants who raided Israel in the Hamas attacks on Oct. 7 killed over 1,200 people, according to Israel, and abducted over 240 civilians and soldiers, bringing them back to the Gaza Strip. Israel responded with a military campaign that it said was aimed at destroying Hamas and recovering the hostages. – Wall Street Journal

Israel is increasingly split over its alliance with the U.S., with Washington’s decision to allow for the passage of a U.N. Security Council resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza emboldening populist voices that demand Israel wrest more independence from American influence. – Wall Street Journal

Israeli military briefers show journalists a map of Gaza in the colors red, yellow and green. The map does not show the rubble, suffering or death. But it does illustrate the case made by the Israel Defense Forces that it is steadily winning its battles — if not yet the war — against Hamas. – Washington Post

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin urged Israel on Tuesday to abandon plans for a major ground offensive against Hamas militants in southern Gaza, as the Biden administration attempts to curtail a spiraling humanitarian crisis at a moment of acute strain between the United States and its closest Middle Eastern ally. – Washington Post

Amit Soussana, an Israeli lawyer, was abducted from her home on Oct. 7, beaten and dragged into Gaza by at least 10 men, some armed. Several days into her captivity, she said, her guard began asking about her sex life. – New York Times

Three Hezbollah militants were killed in Israeli air strikes near two towns in northeast Lebanon on Tuesday, the group posted on Telegram, the furthest bombardment yet from the border where Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged fire. – Reuters

Lebanon’s Hezbollah said on Wednesday it launched dozens of rockets at Kiryet Shmona, a northern Israeli town close to the Lebanese border, in response to deadly Israeli strikes on south Lebanon on Tuesday. – Reuters

Israel has agreed to provide security for the temporary pier the U.S. military is planning to build in Gaza to deliver humanitarian aid to civilians on the brink of famine, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the plans. – Politico

As America and the rest of the world eye Gaza, is it time for Israel to concentrate most of its military and diplomatic efforts on a more acute, but globally ignored danger — the threat from Iran’s most powerful proxy, Hezbollah? – New York Sun

The United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) has enough funds to keep operating until at least the end of May, its chief told Swiss media on Tuesday. – Agence France-Presse

Eylon Levy, the recently-suspended Israeli government spokesperson, has now been terminated from his position, according an N12 report on Wednesday night. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF unveiled its new real-time terrorist threat section software – the ‘Hunter’ system, on its website on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Israel has recalled its negotiators from Doha after deeming mediation talks on a Gaza truce “at a dead end” due to Hamas demands, a senior Israeli official said on Tuesday. The official, who is close to the Mossad representative heading up the talks, accused Hamas’ Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar of sabotaging the diplomacy “as part of a wider effort to inflame this war over Ramadan.” – Jerusalem Post

The Israel Defense Forces’ top spokesman on Tuesday confirmed that the deputy commander of Hamas’s military wing, Marwan Issa, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in the central Gaza Strip earlier this month. – Times of Israel

Editorial: Biden’s anger at Netanyahu is misplaced. Even if he got his wish and Netanyahu left office, the opposition party also supports the Israel Defense Forces’s conquest and pacification of Rafah. Americans and Israelis are united in their determination to see Hamas eliminated from Gaza. Not least for his own political fortune, Biden should stop getting in the way. – Washington Examiner

Editorial: At a juncture where collaboration and mutual understanding are paramount, such a decision can only be seen as a diplomatic misstep with potential long-term ramifications for both the resolution of the Gaza war and the strength of Israel-US relations. Netanyahu, please, send your representatives to Washington. That is the right thing to do. – Jerusalem Post

William A. Galston writes: Still, questions about the conduct of the war won’t end soon, nor should they. Continuing moral reflection—and, when necessary, criticism—is at the heart of the Jewish tradition, as American Jews’ discussion about this year’s Purim observance shows. – Wall Street Journal

Bernard-Henri Lévy writes: And finally, in Rafah, the destruction of what remains of Hamas and its death squads. Without this military victory, the endless wheel of misfortune will begin to spin yet again, though faster. This is the terrible truth. – Wall Street Journal

Tom Rogan writes: So whatever the Biden administration’s motive for abstaining in Monday’s U.N. vote, it stretches credulity beyond the breaking point for administration officials to express surprise that Israel was infuriated and Hamas was encouraged by it. – Washington Examiner

Jacob Magid writes: Gallant said he also discussed the ongoing hostage negotiations with both Austin and Burns, reiterating his belief that the military force Israel is applying in Gaza is critical for securing their release. – Times of Israel

Tal Schneider writes: When you look at all these negative consequences, the heart sinks. And the direct confrontation that the prime minister is fostering with the US only deepens the hole in which Israel finds itself. None of which is going to help Netanyahu with his base. – Times of Israel

Gabriel Epstein writes: The exact proportions of men, women, and children killed are even more unclear. The available data does not allow for reliable estimates about the ratio of civilians to combatants killed either, whether independently or by comparison with Israeli estimates. – Washington Institute

Leon Hadar writes: The latter have to understand that if they fail to convince the majority of Israelis that an independent Palestinian State would pose no threat to Israel, such a state will not be established. If they want to save Israel, they have to do that themselves. The Americans won’t do the job for them. – The National Interest

Russia & Ukraine

There were no aides and no note-takers in the Oval Office—just President Biden and his German guest. Chancellor Olaf Scholz came on such short notice that the only plane he could book, a small Airbus 321, had to refuel in Iceland. Russia’s war in Ukraine and the fighting in Gaza dominated the 90-minute meeting. – Wall Street Journal

Russia’s intelligence chief on Tuesday directly blamed Ukraine for orchestrating the assault on the Crocus City Hall concert venue with Western help, alleging without evidence that Kyiv “trained militants in the Middle East.” – Washington Post

Russian oil firms face delays of up to several months to be paid for crude and fuel as banks in China, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) become more wary of U.S. secondary sanctions, eight sources familiar with the matter said. – Reuters

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy dismissed the secretary of Ukraine’s national security council and replaced him with the head of his foreign spy agency on Tuesday in a new shake-up that follows the overhaul of the military high command last month. – Reuters

Ukraine’s air force chief said on Wednesday that Russia launched 13 Shahed drones at Ukraine overnight, 10 of which were downed in Kharkiv, Sumy and Kyiv regions. – Reuters

Ukraine needs any edge it can get to repel Russia from its territory. One emerging bright spot is its small but fast-growing defense industry, which the government is flooding with money in hopes that a surge of homemade weapons and ammunition can help turn the tide. – Associated Press

Ukraine has sunk or disabled a third of all Russian warships in the Black Sea in just over two years of war, the navy spokesman said Tuesday, a heavy blow to Moscow’s military capability. –  Associated Press

The Kremlin on Tuesday called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “peculiar kind of Jew,” when asked how he could be linked to an attack in Moscow claimed by Islamic jihadists. – Agence France-Presse

Editorial: Evan’s fate aside, something has to change in U.S. hostage policy unless this President and his successors want even more Americans to be grabbed and held for exchange on their watch. Iran and Russia have made hostage-taking part of their anti-American strategy, and it has paid off for them. Other countries may figure they can do the same. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Above all, those who wish peace for Ukraine and Europe must first be prepared to show Putin that he cannot win. That this war is existential for Ukraine has been evident since February 2022. Failing to stand firm against Russian aggression would be a mistake that Germany, and Europe as a whole, will come to regret. – Bloomberg

Andriy Yermak writes: To save the world from another century of turmoil, the West must replicate the successful example from the 1980s. Once again, it can outmaneuver Moscow and Tehran and reclaim the initiative. – Wall Street Journal

Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. writes: His war isn’t popular at home. His rigged fifth presidential election can’t conceal the fact. Expose the truth about last week’s terror attack. Expose the truth, likely long hidden in U.S. files, about the 1999 bombings and about Mr. Putin’s many other depredations against the Russian people so he will know the bill for his Ukraine war is going up. – Wall Street Journal

Bret Stephens writes: The American security challenge today is global: a resurgent ISIS, a revanchist China, a regionally aggressive Iran and a Russia where the lines between grandiosity and paranoia blur. Whether what happened in Russia was Islamist terror, an F.S.B. conspiracy, or some appalling combination of both, it augurs ill for us. – New York Times

Tom Rogan writes: But Putin has confidence in his unmoving response: because ISIS are fanatics, because America is the main enemy, and because Ukraine is a Nazi state dedicated to annihilating Russian lives. In a country where Putin remains popular and it is rather dangerous to question one’s leaders, the lie often offers happier appeal than the truth. – Washington Examiner

Irina Borogan and Andrei Soldatov write: The risk is clearly that Russian citizens will be more at risk rather than less. And that apparently doesn’t bother Putin, even if it makes the FSB less competent and less efficient in addressing the very real threat of terrorism. – Center for European Policy Analysis 

Michael C. DiCianna writes: The US and the rest of the Western world bear a great deal of responsibility for tolerating Putin’s evils. American policymakers did little to punish or push back Russian military actions in Georgia, Syria, or Ukraine in 2014. Western hesitation has not just weakened global rules about sovereignty and taboos against rewriting borders by force, it has also undermined the international regimes to punish crimes against humanity. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Elisabeth Braw writes: That doesn’t mean Norway or any other country should ban Russian Orthodox priests, let alone Russian Orthodox believers. But it does mean always remembering that the Russian Orthodox Church is not just any religious denomination: it’s an arm of the Russian government. – Center for European Policy Analysis

James Marks writes: Putin’s long-standing opposition to U.S. natural gas highlights its strategic value—powering our allies to allow them to reduce dependency on Russian LNG. The current geopolitical climate is not the time for playing politics to appease the radical left; it’s a time for decisive action. The United States must respond by imposing stricter sanctions on Russian energy and expediting its own LNG exports, not undermining its own domestic suppliers. This approach is not just about energy; it’s about supporting global stability, aiding our allies, and standing firm against adversaries. – The National Interest

Korean Peninsula

North Korea, already one of the world’s most isolated countries, has walled itself off further over the past years, data and satellite images show, with devastating effects for its population. – Wall Street Journal 

The United States and South Korea this week launched a new task force aimed at preventing North Korea from procuring illicit oil, as deadlock at the United Nations Security Council casts doubts over the future of international sanctions. – Reuters

A senior North Korean official leading a delegation met with his Vietnamese counterpart on Monday and discussed ways to elevate bilateral relations, North Korean state media KCNA said on Wednesday. – Reuters

The powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un rejected the idea of a summit with Japan, saying a meeting can’t be held because Tokyo has “no courage” to take the first step to better relations. – Bloomberg

South Asia

At least five Chinese nationals were killed in northern Pakistan on Tuesday when a car packed with explosives hit their van, Pakistani officials said, the latest in a string of attacks that have targeted Chinese interests in the country. – Wall Street Journal

India plans to spend nearly $3.7 billion to fence its 1,610-km (1,000-mile) porous border with Myanmar within about a decade, said a source with direct knowledge of the matter, to prevent smuggling and other illegal activities. – Reuters

India supports the Philippines upholding its sovereignty and hopes to find new areas of cooperation including in defence and security, its foreign minister said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Peter Suciu writes: At the start of 2023, Russia had 96 S-400s in service. At least five of the systems have come under attack—including strikes on the command posts, launcher, or radars. The S-400 remains a high-value target, and Russia’s need to replace those destroyed will likely come before any additional units are sent to India. – The National Interest

Europe

British judges ruled that WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange can’t immediately be extradited to the U.S. to face spying charges, opening the way for months of further legal wrangling over the fate of the former hacker. – Wall Street Journal

Those seeking German citizenship could soon have to answer test questions about antisemitism, Germany’s commitment to Israel and Jewish life in Germany. – Washington Post

Moldova’s Constitutional Court on Tuesday struck down legislation aimed at barring from elections a banned party linked to a fugitive business magnate who supports opponents of the pro-European government. – Reuters

Portugal’s newly elected Democratic Alliance (AD) minority government had its first clash on Tuesday with the far-right, accusing it of teaming up with the incumbent Socialists to block the appointment of the parliamentary speaker. – Reuters

Bosnia’s international peace overseer on Tuesday imposed changes to the country’s election law to ensure its integrity, including barring convicted war criminals from running, ahead of a vote in October. – Reuters

A prominent journalist in Belarus was designated a political prisoner on Tuesday by the country’s leading human rights group following his conviction on charges widely seen as part of an ongoing crackdown on dissent. – Associated Press

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte is meeting with Chinese leaders Wednesday for talks that are expected to include the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and Dutch restrictions on the export of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China. – Associated Press

Bulgaria is getting closer to a snap vote, the sixth general election in just over three years, as the country’s second-biggest party won’t try to form a government. – Bloomberg

Emmanuel Macron didn’t need to release images of himself walloping a punching bag to tell the world he was up for a fight. – Bloomberg

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s administration was forced to respond after an ex-cabinet minister was caught on tape alleging that the government’s most powerful minister had meddled in a graft probe. – Bloomberg

Finland considers the risk of Russian spying and influencing operations as “elevated” even as its neighbor’s ability to conduct human intelligence operations has deteriorated, according to the Nordic country’s security service. – Bloomberg

Spanish police said Tuesday they had arrested a man on suspicion of carrying out “intensive efforts to encourage terrorism” and who had extensive ties with an international network of jihadists. – Agence France-Presse

Lionel Laurent writes: “There’s always talk about Germany being a sick man … I’m more worried that Europe is getting sick,” Bundesbank boss Joachim Nagel said last week. He has a point. Better get the medicine ready. – Bloomberg

Tom Rogan writes: Top line: Poland must not allow Russia to learn that it can breach Polish-NATO airspace, endanger the Polish people, and then refuse even to meet and discuss the issue. If the Russians expel the Polish ambassador to Moscow in retaliation, so be it. Putin must not be allowed to claim the initiative here. – Washington Examiner

Elisabeth Braw writes: These investigators should take on a good deed for the global maritime order and investigate shadow-vessel owners, then share their identity and activities. Some may be hardened criminals immune to the embarrassment of public scrutiny, but many others may simply be ordinary businesspeople who have spotted an opportunity. Just as with the ships once called out on Danish radio, public shame may be one way to force people to act for the better. – Foreign Policy

Latin America

Venezuela’s regime barred the leading opposition candidate from running in July’s presidential election, a maneuver that political analysts say splits strongman Nicolás Maduro’s foes and reduces voter turnout, both goals of his government as it prepares to extend its 25-year rule. – Wall Street Journal

Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered former President Jair Bolsonaro to explain why he spent two nights at the Hungarian Embassy, and the Brazilian federal police began investigating whether the February stay violated earlier court orders, police and court officials have said. – New York Times

The Brazilian and the French presidents on Tuesday announced a plan to invest 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) in the Amazon, including parts of the rainforest in neighboring French Guiana. – Associated Press

Colombian President Gustavo Petro on Tuesday threatened to break off diplomatic ties with Israel if the country doesn’t comply with a U.N. Security Council resolution that calls for an immediate cease-fire in the Gaza Strip. – Associated Press

Defense

Denmark will sell 24 of its F-16 warplanes to Argentina for an estimated cost of 2.1 billion kroner ($300 million) after receiving approval from the US in what is the South American nation’s first major defense purchase under President Javier Milei. – Bloomberg

France is putting pressure on its defense industry to accelerate production of equipment for Ukraine, with the government threatening to impose its authority on companies it believes are too slow. – Bloomberg

The association representing Canadian defense firms says it is in the dark about the status of equipment exports to Israel after the House of Commons voted to end military sales to that nation. – Defense News

The U.S. Army is speeding up its plan to procure launched effects capable of flying at different ranges and deploying from a variety of air and ground vehicles. – Defense News

Zalmay Khalilzad and Ambassador Robert C. O’Brien write: American political leaders should regularly remind the world that China’s government underperforms for its citizens and has them trapped in a dystopian surveillance state, that Iranian propaganda and state-sponsored terrorism reflect the attempts of a corrupt and deeply unpopular regime to hold on to power, and that North Koreans would thrive like their fellow Koreans in the South if the regime made the needed political, legal and economic changes, an unlikely prospect. – The National Interest