Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

As rumors swirl that Khamenei, 79, is laying the groundwork for his successor after three decades in power, clerics such as Jazari, from his perch next door in the spiritual heart of Shiite Islam, have rare visibility into a transition process known for its secrecy. He says that Iran’s next supreme ruler may not come from a list of more obvious candidates now circulating among analysts and insiders. He bases his assessment both on experience and, given his proximity to Khamenei’s inner circle, a degree of insight into the future. – Washington Post

Iranian leaders vowed on Thursday to control soaring prices, bring stability to the national currency and create jobs as the nation marked the end of a year of economic crisis fueled by renewed U.S. sanctions. – Reuters

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Thursday in a new year speech broadcast on state TV that the Islamic Republic successfully resisted “unprecedented, strong” U.S. sanctions. – Reuters

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani called on the country’s political factions to end infighting and unite against foreign enemies in a new year speech broadcast on state TV on Thursday. – Reuters

Four of the Iranian border guards kidnapped last year by a Sunni militant group on the border with Pakistan were released on Wednesday, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said. – Reuters

The trial of Esmaeil Bakhshi, Ali Nejati and other defendants arrested amid protests and strikes at the Haft Tapeh Sugar Cane industrial complex in the city of Shush, southwest Iran, has been referred to the Revolutionary Court in Tehran. – Radio Farda

A right-wing student group in Iran has called on the country’s new Judiciary Chief Ebrahim Raeesi (Raeisi) to indict his predecessor and another senior politician for being involved in a “land grab” case in the lavish Lavasan area north of Tehran. – Radio Farda

Alireza Nader writes: During this Nowruz, Iranian-Americans and their American friends should think of the struggles of their homeland while they celebrate the spring. As Iranians peacefully fight for a better future, Americans of all political and religious persuasions should stand by their side and publicly express support for Iranian pro-democracy forces. Broader coverage of Iranians’ struggle in the American media is vital, as are statements and actions demonstrating support from policy-makers on the Hill and the executive branch. – ADL

Shaparak Shajarizadeh writes: The world must instead send a clear message: Iran will not be treated as an equal member of the international community if it does not treat women as equal members of humanity. They certainly must not be allowed to lead in these institutions, so long as women leaders like Nasrin languish in prison. Countries should use their clout at the U.N. and other international organizations to pass resolutions calling for Nasrin’s release, and remove and block Iran from leadership positions until it does so. – Time

Syria

President Trump said the Islamic State extremist group would suffer its final territorial defeat by Wednesday evening, even as U.S.-backed fighters in Syria were still completing the battle against the militants. – Wall Street Journal

Robert Burns writes: In a campaign that spanned five years and two U.S. presidencies, unleashed more than 100,000 bombs and killed untold numbers of civilians, the U.S. military engineered the destruction of the Islamic State group’s self-proclaimed empire in Iraq and Syria. That’s a military success, but not necessarily one that will last. The Islamic State group is down, but it is not done. – Associated Press

Zvi Bar’el writes: The one who should be worried about the expected Russian withdrawal is Israel, which sees in Russia the most important guarantor for stopping Iranian military entrenchment in Syria, especially along the border on the Golan Heights. Russia, which did not keep its promise to keep the pro-Iranian forces dozens of kilometers to the east of the border, proposed in August establishing observation points along the border, with the purpose of preventing the entry of foreign forces to the border area – but only now has it completed the construction of a single observation point manned by Russian military police. – Haaretz

Israel

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrived in Israel on Wednesday to discuss threats the country faces from Iran and its allies, a visit that buttresses Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s campaign message as he seeks to win a fifth term in April 9 elections. – Wall Street Journal

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressed the United States to recognize Israeli governance of most of the Golan Heights during a visit by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday. His efforts underscored the growing possibility that the Trump administration may change the American stance on the territory. – New York Times

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alleged on Wednesday that Iran could blackmail his main election rival, Benny Gantz, after hacking the former armed forces chief’s phone, even as Tehran denied doing so. – Reuters

A Palestinian was killed by Israeli gunfire in the occupied West Bank, Palestinian medics said, and the military announced on Thursday that a soldier had discharged his weapon and it was reviewing the incident. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump will host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House next Monday and Tuesday, the White House said, reaffirming the two leaders’ close ties. – Reuters

The United States has reaffirmed its unwavering support for Israel against Iran, with whom Russia said it sought closer ties. – Newsweek

The Palestinian Authority’s ruling party, Fatah, has celebrated the terrorist who killed two Israelis and wounded a third in the West Bank on Sunday as a “perfect person” and a “heroic Martyr.” – Algemeiner

Israelis and Palestinians have been waiting for the Trump administration’s “deal of the century” peace plan since May 2018. Now, President Donald Trump is saying he will unveil this plan only after the April 9 Israeli elections. However, there is a strong argument to be made that the peace plan should be shared immediately. – Jerusalem Post

The head of the Hamas terror group on Wednesday appeared to dismiss recent unrest over economic conditions in the Gaza Strip and vowed major turnout at the upcoming one-year anniversary of weekly clashes along the border with Israel. Gaza saw several days of internal protests last week in a rare public show of dissent in the Hamas-ruled territory as hundreds of Palestinians took to the streets to protest the economic woes of the cash-strapped territory. – Times of Israel

Tom Rogan writes: Netanyahu must now know that he cannot have his American cake and simultaneously reject America’s peace plan. Assuming the U.S. peace plan is practical and just, it must receive serious Israeli consideration. Trump’s threat is thus now justified and appropriate. – Washington Examiner

Petra Marquardt-Bigman writes: The official poster used to advertise this year’s “Israeli Apartheid Week” is an image that is quite literally worth a thousand words because it openly signals support for the Hamas-orchestrated riots that have threatened and terrorized Israeli communities near the Gaza border for the past year. The poster prominently features the kites that terrorists equip with incendiary or explosive material before they launch them across the border into Israel to start devastating fires or hurt unsuspecting children. – Times of Israel

Middle East & North Africa

The United Nations will hold a conference inside Libya in April to discuss elections as a way out of the country’s eight-year-long conflict, a U.N. envoy said on Wednesday, although it remains to be seen whether powerful factions will attend. – Reuters

Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika will hand over power to a democratically elected successor after a new constitution is approved and a national conference is held, Deputy Prime Minister Ramtane Lamamra said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Qatar has called on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to intervene in a dispute over a $24 billion nuclear power plant which the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is building. – Reuters

Kuwait’s foreign minister said on Wednesday that a long-awaited U.S. peace proposal for the Middle East should be acceptable to all stakeholders and factor in regional considerations. – Reuters

Bobby Ghosh writes: For the Algerian protesters to press home their advantage, they need to be at the negotiating table as well as in the street. If they can’t, the lessons of the Arab Spring don’t allow for much optimism about what happens next. – Bloomberg

China

With the U.S. and China preparing for a fresh round of face-to-face negotiations, President Trump said the U.S. expected to keep tariffs on Chinese goods in place for a “substantial period of time,” even after a deal. – Wall Street Journal

In this old Silk Road city in western China, a state security campaign involving the detention of vast numbers of people has moved to its next stage: demolishing their neighborhoods and purging their culture. Two years after authorities began rounding up Urumqi’s mostly Muslim ethnic Uighur residents, many of the anchors of Uighur life and identity are being uprooted. Empty mosques remain, while the shantytown homes that surrounded them have been replaced by glass towers and retail strips like many found across China. – Wall Street Journal

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen will visit Hawaii next week on a tour of diplomatic allies in the Pacific, official media said on Thursday, a move likely to anger China, which claims the self-ruled island as its own amid tension across the strait. – Reuters

The European Union will discuss a more defensive strategy on China on Thursday, potentially signaling an end to the unfettered access that Chinese business has enjoyed in Europe but which Beijing has failed to reciprocate. – Reuters

Claude Barfield writes: As this kaleidoscope of issues amply demonstrates, urgent questions relating to Huawei, Beijing, US allies, 5G, and, ultimately, the game-changing Internet of Things implicate a daunting interaction of technology, security, intelligence, and economic factors. It is well past time for the president’s intelligence, defense, and economic advisers to persuade him to mount an all-government initiative to analyze the trade-offs and devise recommendations for a path forward that integrates economic, technology, and security policies. – American Enterprise Institute

Asia

A smooth political transition after the unexpected resignation of Kazakhstan’s longtime leader serves the interests of neighboring Russia and China, which have economic and security stakes in the region. – Wall Street Journal

The United States remains concerned about India-Pakistan tensions as the nuclear-armed countries’ militaries remain on alert nearly three weeks after their most dangerous confrontation in decades, a senior U.S. administration official said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Sri Lanka’s leader has kept his country’s political rift from spilling over to a U.N. human rights council meeting this week by abandoning plans to oppose the prime minister’s decision to co-sponsor a resolution giving the nation more time to address war crime allegations stemming from its civil war. – Associated Press

A man who owns a Nazi-themed insulation company has been charged with sharing the horrific livestream video of the mass shooting at a New Zealand mosque. – New York Post

Azeem Ibrahim writes: The wild cards here are the shifting domestic landscapes in Bangladesh and China. China is building part of its Belt and Road initiative through Myanmar, in regions near the old Rohingya areas — a project that will bring Myanmar snugly under China’s wing. This means if Beijing ever decides that its interests in Bangladesh would be served by supporting the relocation of the Rohingya to Myanmar, it could easily press Naypyidaw to accept the forceful relocation of the Rohingya refugees – Washington Post

Patrick M. Cronin, Abigail Grace, Daniel Kliman and Kristine Lee write: Now is the time to revisit America’s approach toward Southeast Asia. After reaching a high point during the Obama presidency, U.S. engagement with the region lost momentum at the outset of the Trump administration. That has since changed, as the Trump administration has come to recognize that its overall effort to compete with China will falter if it fails to get Southeast Asia right. – Center for a New American Security

Europe

Fidesz, the party of Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary, was suspended from the European Union’s most powerful political coalition on Wednesday, endangering an alliance that has shielded him from serious repercussions as he has dismantled or co-opted nearly every check on his power. – New York Times

A United Nations court on Wednesday increased the sentence of Radovan Karadzic, the former Bosnian Serb leader, from 40 years to life in prison for his role in the Bosnian war of the 1990s, reaffirming his conviction on charges of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. – New York Times

With Brexit in disarray, it’s hard to imagine that European Union leaders will have more pressing matters on their minds when they meet in Brussels. And yet their two-day summit beginning on Thursday includes existential topics ranging from trade relations with the bloc’s biggest economic partners, to resolving differences over how to save the planet from catastrophic climate change. Here’s a look at some of the other open fronts keeping heads of state awake at night and busy in Brussels. – Bloomberg

The president of the Union of Jewish Students of France (UEJF) called for comprehensive action to tackle antisemitism, after a new poll showed that nearly 90 percent of Jewish students in France encountered antisemitism on campus. – Algemeiner

Lawyers representing the family of the Jewish doctor murdered during a frenzied antisemitic assault inside her Paris apartment in 2017 have expressed angry frustration at the news that the accused killer may yet escape a criminal trial. – Algemeiner

Editorial: Berlin is providing political cover for other NATO members tempted to scrimp on spending if an economic downturn stretches budgets. This will also embolden Mr. Trump and others in Washington who argue that German defense failures are a reason to rethink U.S. commitments to Europe. – Wall Street Journal

Rachel Rizzo and Carrie Cordero write: Accordingly, the time is ripe for Congress to refresh its institutional understanding of the history of NATO, the contribution the alliance makes to global security, current challenges in modernizing the alliance, and the legal issues that would be involved in a potential effort by the president to withdraw. Congress is a key player in protecting the integrity of NATO, and it is vital that policymakers understand the tools at their disposal. – Center for a New American Security

William Schneider writes: The rancor over budgets, however, has overshadowed a more fundamental problem: Military power has shifted from weapons platforms to data. Fortunately, advances in technology now offer a way out of the curiously outdated debate over burden-sharing. Cloud services are the best path forward for NATO’s members to both modernize their military collaboration and patch up their differences. – The Mercury News

The Americas

The liberal group MoveOn is calling on Democratic presidential candidates to skip this year’s AIPAC policy conference, citing the pro-Israel group’s links to the right-wing government of Benjamin Netanyahu and charging that AIPAC has flirted with Islamophobia. – Politico

The head of a New Jersey school district has apologized after a guest speaker dubbed Adolf Hitler a “good leader” and displayed the Nazi dictator’s photo alongside civil rights icon Martin Luther King Jr. – New York Post

A Guatemalan presidential candidate known for tackling high-profile corruption as attorney general said on Wednesday that she would return from neighboring El Salvador within days despite an arrest warrant. – Reuters

Andrew Duehren writes: Brazil and the U.S., along with dozens of other countries, have recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the interim president of the country and called for Mr. Maduro to step down. A closer military alliance between the two countries could help facilitate any potential military intervention in Venezuela, which both leaders did not rule out on Tuesday. – Wall Street Journal

Defense

The Defense Department’s independent watchdog has opened an investigation into allegations that acting defense secretary Patrick Shanahan violated ethics rules by taking actions to promote Boeing after leaving the aerospace company and accepting a top job at the Pentagon.  – Washington Post

Last September, the U.S. Air Force revealed that it will need a total of 386 operational squadrons to take on future threats posed by Russia and China. A new congressionally mandated study posits that number may not be enough. – Defense News

The Army’s newest tracked vehicle, set to replace the half-century old Armored Personnel Carrier, is set to field next year in both the United States and Europe, according to recent Army budget documents. – Army Times

Facing threats from ever-faster missiles and increasingly complicated air threats from China and Russia, the Navy is moving toward a major upgrade to its stalwart Arleigh Burke destroyer fleet. – Defense News

The U.S. Army is embarking on several new missile development programs while ramping up and accelerating other ongoing programs to deliver more fire power to the force at greater ranges, according to the service’s justification books for its fiscal 2020 budget request. – Defense News

The United States has blamed Russia and China for militarizing space, while refusing to sign their joint proposal for placing weapons there. – Newsweek

Tom Rogan writes: Although there are obvious benefits to providing war fighters with easy access to real-time intelligence and other instruments of military power, over-reliance on networked warfare is a mistake. It creates space and incentive for an enemy to destabilize a defined U.S. military center of gravity. – Washington Examiner