Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

When the coronavirus hit Iran in February, it presented its leaders with a choice: Close the country down to contain the outbreak and risk the wrath of a population already fed up with economic hardship, or try to keep the economy ticking over and risk the outbreak spiraling out of control. Tehran chose the latter. – Wall Street Journal

The voices rose angrily and a knot of people gathered on the Iraqi side of the border crossing with Iran. Two Iranian diplomats were trying to get relatives out of Iran, where the coronavirus is rampant, and into Iraq. – New York Times

President Hassan Rouhani said Iran’s fight against the coronavirus was being “severely hampered” by U.S. sanctions, as state television reported that the death toll from the illness rose on Saturday to 611, up nearly 100 from a day earlier. – Reuters

Security forces will empty the streets of cities across Iran in the next 24 hours in a drive to fight the spread of the new coronavirus, state television reported on Friday. – Reuters

A United Nations Human Rights Council report on the human rights situation in Iran was sharply criticized over the weekend by a leading watchdog agency. Hillel Neuer, the head of NGO UN Watch, said in a statement, “When the UN helps gross abusers like Iran act as champions and global judges of human rights, it’s an insult to their political prisoners and many other victims — and a defeat for the global cause of human rights.”. – Algemeiner

A 78-year-old member of the Iranian clerical body that chooses the country’s supreme leader has died from the illness caused by the new coronavirus, news agencies reported Monday. He was the latest of several senior Iranian officials to have been infected in the worsening outbreak. – Associated Press

A top Shi’a cleric in Iran has denied approving the purchase of a possible anti-coronavirus vaccine from Israel, which Islamic Republic considers as its top enemy. – Radio Farda

Iran’s second largest city and a pilgrim destination, Mashhad, is facing the threat of turning into a new coronavirus (COVID-19) hotspot if immediate measures including a lockdown are not put into effect, local officials warned on Saturday. The situation seems critical enough to have forced the powerful ultraconservative religious and political establishment of the city to capitulate and shut down the city’s shrine for three days. – Radio Farda

The deadly novel coronavirus outbreak in Iran has exposed a long-suspected attribute of an outspoken Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) General and former mayor of Tehran, who has is set to preside over the newly elected parliament on May 28. – Radio Farda

A long-serving, senior Revolutionary Guard general has died of coronavirus in Iran on Friday, March 13. – Radio Farda

Even as Iran’s coronavirus epidemic has become a severe crisis, impacting every aspect of life in the country, the Iranian government is continuing to summon and arrest its critics as usual. Mehdi Hajati, a former member of Shiraz City Council, was arrested for tweets in which he had criticized the decision to not quarantine the city of Qom where the epidemic started. – Iran Wire

Editorial: Tehran is dealing with its own coronavirus outbreak, and perhaps its terror masters figured they could get some propaganda gains from the deaths of Americans in Iraq. The U.S. response this week was important and necessary to send a message of deterrence against more such attacks. But if the regime continues to kill Americans using proxy fighters, Mr. Trump will have to consider a more serious military response. – Wall Street Journal

Rahim Hamid and Yasser Assadi write: Unfortunately, this is the reality for many Ahwazi children—not even 13 years old, compelled to work late nights in cemeteries and left to suffer from endless nightmares. […]The lack of education and socialization among the young threatens to create a lost generation that will propagate a cycle of poverty that could last for generations. The region, already stressed, does not need the added pressures of poverty, disease and hopelessness to become embedded in another minority. – Washington Institute

Turkey

Turkey has signaled that it is winding down its two-week operation to aid the movement of tens of thousands of people toward Europe, following a tough on-the-ground response from Greek border guards and a tepid diplomatic reaction from European politicians. – New York Times

Three Turkish men were sentenced this week to 125 years in jail for their part in the drowning of a boy whose death in 2015 became a worldwide symbol of the suffering caused by the Syrian war and the European refugee crisis it triggered. – New York Times

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and his Azeri counterpart Ilham Aliyev agreed in a phone call on Saturday to temporarily halt air and land travel between the two countries, excluding cargo, Turkey’s communications directorate said. – Reuters

Michael Rubin writes: Fifteen years ago, diplomats and analysts denied Erdoğan sought anything more than to imbue democracy with some Islamic trappings. Perhaps fifteen years from now, the same analysts will question how they could have been blind to Erdoğan’s ultimate agenda. It is fine to quibble over the five end goals voiced above, but now is the time to discuss openly how Erdoğan visualizes Turkey fifteen years from now. – The National Interest

Iraq

Rockets struck an Iraqi base housing American troops on Saturday, lowering any expectations of de-escalation after U.S. strikes on an Iran-backed militia in response to the killing of two of its troops at the same base this week. – Wall Street Journal

Iraqi officials reacted angrily on Friday to American airstrikes against an Iran-backed group on Iraqi soil, contributing to increased U.S.-Iraqi tensions as the two countries attempt to jointly defeat terrorist groups operating there. – Wall Street Journal

Bilal Wahab writes: Another item that should be high on the agenda is something the United States is capable of doing quite well when sufficiently focused: rallying international support for credible Iraqi elections. The UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) remains a legitimate, effective channel for helping Baghdad reform its election law, conduct proper redistricting, and orchestrate international monitoring. To stave off further disappointments, it is crucial to improve security and increase free political space between now and the next election. – Washington Institute

Michael Knights writes: In parallel, the U.S. should toughen its mindset, quietly bringing the force protection assets into Iraq that it needs (i.e., Patriot missiles and anti-rocket close-in defenses) without further consultation with an Iraqi government that would rather adopt a “don’t ask, don’t tell” approach.  And finally, the U.S. should let the militias keep over-reaching, keep showing their hand as would-be dictators under Iran’s control, while the U.S.-led coalition keeps helping Iraq to defeat the Islamic State. This is a game we can win. – Politico

Yesar Al-Maleki writes: Iraq’s politics are complicated, but its economic prospects are attractive. The U.S. should support the development of an economically strong and politically independent Iraq. It is the sole successful model of America’s presence in the region. The administration’s short-to-medium-term strategy in Iraq will determine whether the U.S. is interested in sustaining a stabilizing role that is beneficial to both nations. Alternatively, there is a risk of throwing away years of involvement by reducing Iraq to a pawn in a larger geopolitical game with Iran, one which will likely have no winners. – Middle East Institute

Middle East & North Africa

A fear among key members of the UN security council of taking on the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Egypt has allowed the three countries to carry out a wholesale breach of the UN weapons embargo to Libya, one of Libya’s most senior ministers has warned. – The Guardian

Yemen’s third-largest city was once known as its capital of culture. […]Now it is known as Yemen’s longest-running battlefield, the most heavily bombed by blistering Saudi airstrikes, the deadliest governorate in Yemen’s devastating war. The conflict, which enters its sixth year this month, pits the Houthis aligned to Iran against Yemen’s government backed by a Saudi-led coalition supported by western military powers. – The Guardian

Lebanon’s powerful Hezbollah movement, which has strongly opposed foreign interference in the country’s crisis-hit economy, said Friday it could accept Beirut receiving an International Monetary Fund financial rescue package under “reasonable conditions”. – Agence France-Presse

Afghanistan

A single block near the presidential palace, bristling with guns, has become ground zero in a surreal war of nerves between two civilian politicians both claiming to be the country’s legitimate leader […]But as the standoff drags into its second week, many Afghans fear the slightest incident could ignite a violent conflagration between rival camps, plunging the country into chaos and dooming planned negotiations between the government and the Taliban to end Afghanistan’s 18-year war. – Washington Post

Plans for the Afghan government to begin releasing Taliban prisoners were stalled on Saturday over disagreements on the number of detainees to be released and guarantees that they will not return to fighting, a government security spokesman said. – Reuters

The fragile peace deal taking shape in Afghanistan could spell the end of an era of for the U.S. military, one marked by efforts at nation-building and winning hearts and minds. It appears that the Pentagon is also intent on ending a research program from that era–to fund social science for the military. – NPR

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin has formally asked the country’s constitutional court if it is legal for him to change the constitution, the Kremlin said on Saturday, a move that could allow him to remain in power until 2036. – Reuters

Valentina Tereshkova was hailed as a hero when she became the first woman in space in 1963. Now 83, she has became a hate figure for some Russians after this week putting forward a constitutional amendment that could allow President Vladimir Putin to stay in power until 2036. – Reuters

Russian maritime reconnaissance aircraft are really interested in an ongoing U.S. submarine exercise near Alaska known as ICEX — the spy planes have been intercepted three times this week by U.S. and Canadian aircraft, according to the U.S. military. – Military Times

On March 2, Russian President Vladimir Putin, prior to the second reading to the new amendments bill to the Russian Constitution filed a series of amendments. The amendments ran to 24 pages. Inter alia, the amendments contain a reference to the deity, enshrines traditional family values and names the Russians as a state-forming nation. – Middle East Media Research Institute

David Satter writes: If Mr. Putin were to lose power, new leadership could reveal vast amounts of information about the crimes of the past two decades, with devastating consequences for him and all who supported him. Ms. Tereshkova said that allowing Mr. Putin to run again will have a stabilizing effect on Russian society. She is right in one sense. It will certainly prolong the present stagnation. The only question is for how long. – Wall Street Journal

Thomas Rid writes: The Covid-19 pandemic in the United States has three features beyond fear that make it highly attractive raw material for disinformation: The coronavirus is sweeping right into campaign season, it is already flanked by polarizing conspiracy theories and the president’s response to the emergency is hotly contested. The virus is exposing a range of contradictions ready for sharpening — for example, a simmering generational conflict spurred by skewed fatality rates. To reach their disruptive goal, Russian planners may well calculate, as they did in 2016, that helping Mr. Trump weakens America. – New York Times

Jeffrey Mankoff and Andrey Kortunov write: The 2020 elections in the United States represent a massive uncertainty and the stakes will appear much higher than in the recent past, which will impact policies, particularly with the centrality of Russia in U.S. politics. This situation may be an opportunity for more sober discussion about Russia in Washington, even if it is unlikely that the United States—under Trump or a new Democratic leader—will be able to develop a new approach to Russia that enjoys bipartisan consensus and is capable of informing U.S. policy over the longer term. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Africa

A Canadian woman and an Italian man who were abducted 15 months ago in Burkina Faso have been released in the neighboring country of Mali, a United Nations official confirmed Saturday. – New York Times

Ethiopia refuses to be pressured by the United States into signing a deal with Egypt and Sudan over its controversial dam on the Nile River, says Ethiopia’s foreign minister. – Associated Press

In recent weeks, several local leaders have been assassinated for co-operating with the UN and France, whose combined 20,000 troops are in the west African country to keep the peace and fight terrorists respectively. – Financial Times

The Americas

Even as governments around the world struggle to contain the coronavirus pandemic, many officials are themselves falling victim to the pathogen, undermining global efforts to address the crisis. – New York Times

Guyana’s electoral authorities set the stage for the re-election of the country’s president late Friday, when they declared the country’s ruling party the winner of the capital region, in a widely denounced process that threatens to isolate the small South American nation and new oil producer. – New York Times

A parliamentary committee on Thursday warned that China and Russia are threatening Canada’s national security and democracy by stepping up “clandestine and coercive” efforts to influence politicians, students and the media. –  Agence France-Presse

Cuba released dissident artist Luis Manuel Otero Alcantara from jail overnight after dozens of prominent artists, including those traditionally supportive of the Communist government, as well as international rights groups criticized his arrest 13 days ago. – Reuters

Defense

The 1st Space Operations Squadron recently completed a major overhaul of the ground system for the U.S. military’s Geosynchronous Space Situational Awareness Program, which uses satellites to collect space situational awareness data about other objects on orbit. – C4ISRNET

Amidst a grueling round of congressional hearings last week, Murray sat down with me for an impromptu interview. We began by going into detail on Iron Dome, the Israeli-built anti-rocket system that Congress pressed the Army to buy, but which the service is struggling to make compatible with its own Integrated Air & Missile Defense Battle Command System, aka IBCS. – Breaking Defense

But the service still awarded nearly $1 billion in contracts during a virtual version of its event held March 12, which included keynotes from Air Force Secretary Barbara Barrett, a “Pitch Bowl” where companies delivered short pitches in the hopes of receiving small contracts from the Air Force, and other events meant to deepen the Air Force’s connection to small commercial tech firms. – Defense News

A joint exercise launched March 8 and 9 in the Persian Gulf involving the Cyclone-class Monsoon and the two aircraft was designed to see how well a surface patrol ship and a long-range spy plane could select targets in the Persian Gulf for a Special Operations Command Central gunship to blast to bits. – Navy Times