Fdd's overnight brief

March 12, 2024

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News


A new U.S. global intelligence assessment says that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hold on office “may be in jeopardy” and suggests Israel will fail to achieve its aim in the Gaza war of completely eliminating Hamas. – Wall Street Journal

The top U.S. intelligence official on Monday warned that the war in Gaza could embolden terrorist groups, which are aligned in their opposition to the United States for its support of Israel. – Washington Post

The U.N. envoy focusing on sexual violence in conflict warned Israel on Monday that the finding of “clear and convincing information” that some hostages taken by Hamas during its Oct. 7 attack in southern Israel were subjected to sexual violence “does not in any way legitimize further hostilities.” – Associated Press

Palestinians began fasting for the Muslim holy month of Ramadan on Monday with cease-fire talks at a standstill, hunger worsening across the Gaza Strip and no end in sight to the war between Israel and Hamas. – Associated Press

President Joe Biden has stepped up public pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, warning he’s “hurting Israel” and speaking candidly about “come to Jesus” conversations with the leader over the growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza. – Associated Press

Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz on Monday demanded the United Nations Security Council “put as much pressure as possible” on Palestinian militants Hamas to release the people it took hostage during the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. – Reuters

A ship taking almost 200 tons of food to Gaza left a port in Cyprus early on Tuesday in a pilot project to open a new sea route for aid to a population on the brink of famine. – Reuters

Prime Minister Netanyahu is making it clear that Israel will conduct military operations against Hamas at Rafah despite public criticisms from President Biden. The “daylight” between America and Israel is not helping Israel in its fight to defeat the terrorist organization, he says. – New York Sun

The almost-daily phone calls stopped months ago. Now the tensions between Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s war on Hamas have burst into the open as the two leaders bicker publicly. – Bloomberg

Bank of Nova Scotia’s asset-management arm reduced its stake in Israeli defense contractor Elbit Systems Ltd., an investment that sparked protests last year as the war between Israel and Hamas raged on. – Bloomberg

The IDF, in joint action with the Civil Administration, under the direction of Israel’s National Security Council, conducted an operation in the past day to rescue more than 70 Gaza orphans from the Gaza Strip and bring them to Bethlehem in the West Bank, N12 reported on Monday.  – Jerusalem Post

Sara Netanyahu appealed to the mother of the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim ibn Hamad Al Thani, regarding the release of the hostages, the Prime Minister’s Office announced on Monday.  – Jerusalem Post

Although aspects of running Gaza can be propped up shortly, finding a full solution to replacing Hamas as the Strip’s ruler will not work until Gaza chief Yahya Sinwar is dead, say IDF sources. – Jerusalem Post

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres failed to properly respond to the Hamas-led October 7 invasion of Israel because its victims were Jewish, Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on Monday. –  Jerusalem Post

Israeli Arab Ali Ziadna, who has family members held hostage in Gaza, confronted Palestinian Ambassador to the UN Riyad Mansour on Monday after the UNSC debate on sexual violence committed by Hamas, and criticized him for allowing his family members and other fellow Muslims to wallow in Hamas captivity, according to a video posted on X. – Jerusalem Post

UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict, Pramila Patten, said at the Security Council briefing on sexual violence on Monday, “What I witnessed in Israel were scenes of unspeakable violence perpetrated with shocking brutality resulting in intense human suffering.” – Jerusalem Post

Designate Hamas as a terror organization and do more to pressure it to release the remaining 134 hostages, Foreign Minister Israel Katz told the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) during its Monday debate on the sexual violence committed by Palestinians during the October 7 attack against the Jewish state. –  Jerusalem Post

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded Monday to President Biden’s hot mic remark after the State of the Union address where he suggested he needs to have a meeting with the prime minister over the escalating situation in Gaza. – The Hill

Troops from the Egoz Unit are continuing to operate and conduct targeted raids in the Hamad area of Khan Yunis. The troops located a military compound containing weapons in the area, including AK-47 rifles, vests, and explosive devices. – Arutz Sheva

Israeli security services are considering enlisting the aid of the Palestinian Authority in building the system that will be responsible for running the Gaza Strip and dispensing humanitarian aid. One of the names being considered is Majid Faraj, the head of PA intelligence and a close confidant of PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. – Arutz Sheva

US President Joe Biden told reporters he does not have any plans to address the Knesset, after saying over the weekend that he may do so to directly appeal to the Israeli public regarding his concerns over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s prosecution of the war in Gaza. – Times of Israel

After a day of speculation, the Israel Defense Forces’ top spokesman on Monday confirmed that the military targeted the deputy commander of Hamas’s military wing in the central Gaza Strip a day earlier, but said it did not have enough information that would confirm whether the hit was successful. – Times of Israel

An armed Palestinian man on his way to carry out an imminent terror attack was killed by troops in the West Bank, the IDF and Shin Bet announced Monday evening – Times of Israel

The Israel Defense Forces has decided it will work to dismantle the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees in the Gaza Strip and replace it with an alternative body, The Times of Israel learned on Monday. – Times of Israel

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that perceived disagreements between the US and Israel make it harder to defeat Hamas. – Times of Israel

President Joe Biden on Saturday warned Israel against invading Hamas’ remaining stronghold in Gaza, but experts say this would only ensure the terrorist group’s survival and recovery. – Daily Caller

Adam Taylor writes: Netanyahu may be willing to risk a break with Democrats, willing to bet on a Republican win in November that would return former president Donald Trump to the presidency. It’s a risky bet, even if Trump does win. The former president told the crowd at a campaign rally in South Carolina this weekend that he views U.S. military aid as a loan that has to be repaid. – Washington Post

Gerard Baker writes: Why does Israel always seem to be held to a different standard? To see the answer, to understand why Israel is usually portrayed as the blood-lusting warmonger, it might be helpful to reframe our original question. Instead of asking what Israel has to do to be allowed to defend itself, we might simply ask: What do Jews have to do to be allowed to defend themselves? – Wall Street Journal

Michael J. Salamon and Louis Libin write: Hamas has spent a great deal of time and money establishing networks, with legions of followers throughout the free world who aggressively support Hamas lies all while denying real reports, to support their cultish goals. Without an effort to confront the beliefs and character of the radicals in Hamas, Hezbollah, and others, battlefield success will be paltry as the cults will continue to attract believers. – Jerusalem Post

Micah Halpern writes: Israel may be isolated, but Israel will soldier on. It is the world that will suffer the greater loss – of that, I have no doubt. – Jerusalem Post

Dr. Hans-Georg Maassen writes: As the new German conservative party, the Values Union is fully committed to supporting Israel and its right to self-defense. Israel is the only democratic state in the Middle East based on the rule of law, which shares the Judeo-Christian values our party is founded on. For many years I have urged that Israel should be invited to join NATO. I believe this is more urgent than ever today. – Arutz Sheva

Daniel Byman writes: The Israel-Hamas war’s end would only mark the end of a chapter in the book of Palestinian suffering: The next chapter may be about the chaotic postwar period. Too often, U.S. and international policy in the region is focused on establishing a cease-fire or beginning negotiations, and not enough on lessening the suffering of ordinary people. To reduce the risk of long-term state failure, the United States, European Union members, and others hoping for a solution to the conflict should focus on who will rule Gaza and how that entity’s rule will be enforced in the long term. – Foreign Policy

Lior Lehrs writes: We need to avoid repeating the mistake of the 2003 Roadmap, which laid out an ambitious plan but was quickly abandoned. It can also include, if possible, a UN Security Council resolution that will update UN Resolution 242 (1967) and ensure an international commitment to the plan. An ongoing positive international engagement based on these elements could also influence the domestic inter-party discourse and shift the balance between moderates and extremists. Our message to the international community can be summed up by borrowing the words of Leah Rabin when she addressed the many young Israelis who had gathered in the streets to mourn the death of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin following his assassination in 1995: “It’s unfortunate you weren’t here then, but it’s good you’re here now.” – Middle East Institute

Jon B. Alterman writes: But Netanyahu is suffering from founder’s syndrome. What brought him success in the past is not fit for purpose in current conditions. He is correct in assessing Hamas’s strategy, but he has no better one for Israel. In particular, his profound lack of empathy for his adversaries—both within Israel and among Palestinians—leads to a dead end. – Center for Strategic and International Studies


Russia said a group of its warships had arrived in Iran to take part in drills with Iran and China in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. – Reuters

An Iranian court ordered the United States on Monday to pay nearly $2.5 billion to victims of a 2008 bombing in the country. The order relates to a convicted US resident whom Iran accuses of being involved in the attack. – al-Monitor

An Iranian lawmaker says women are outraged over lawmakers’ proposal to directly deduct cash fines from their bank accounts for disregarding hijab rules. – Iran International

Benny Avni writes: The Gaza war is raising passions, and in an election year Mr. Biden is attempting a delicate dance between supporters of Israel and fans of Hamas living in Michigan and elsewhere. Meanwhile, even as Washington fails to focus on the instigator of all Mideast wars, it is Iran that could hurt America — and dim Mr. Biden’s re-election prospects. – New York Sun

Dr. Reza Parchizadeh writes: Israel needs to convince the people of Iran that it will ensure a transition to liberal democracy following the fall of Islamists. A stable democracy in Tehran is actually in the best interest of Jerusalem, as it enshrines Iran in the same U.S.-led liberal order that created and upholds modern Israel. The alternative to this, a purported pro-Israel dictatorship composed of the elements of the present and the previous regimes that some promote, will no doubt alienate the Iranian people and lead them to blame Israel for the evils of the autocracy, just as it happened during the reign of the Shah. – Arutz Sheva

Russia & Ukraine

When Maria Andreeva’s husband, Ivan, received his draft summons in October 2022, she said he wasn’t that worried […]While the Kremlin has jailed and punished Russians for expressing any form of dissent, it has allowed Andreeva’s protests to take place. The Kremlin’s inaction reflects the dilemma it faces in responding to the women’s activism ahead of the presidential vote of March 15-17. – Wall Street Journal

Russia’s air force has dramatically boosted its effectiveness in the Ukraine war with its increased use of “glide bombs,” contributing to Moscow’s recent battlefield successes, according to Western experts. – Washington Post

One Ukrainian brigade had defended the same block of industrial buildings for months without a break. Another had been in Avdiivka for nearly the entire two years of the war, bone-tired but with no replacements to relieve them. – Associated Press

A South Korean citizen arrested in Russia earlier this year on suspicion of spying is to remain in custody until mid-June, Russia’s state news agency Tass said Monday. – Associated Press

Thousands of Russians braved the cold for hours earlier this month to honor the opposition politician Alexei Navalny after his funeral. They chanted anti-war slogans and covered his gravesite with so many flowers that it disappeared from view. – Associated Press

Russians are finding a few imported staples, like fruit, coffee and olive oil, have shot way up in price. Most global brands have disappeared — or been reincarnated as Russian equivalents under new, Kremlin-friendly ownership. A lot more Chinese cars are zipping around the streets. Those who want a particular luxury cosmetic may be out of luck. – Associated Press

Ukraine launched a wave of long-range drones against targets deep inside Russia on Tuesday, Russian officials said, hitting at least two oil facilities in the attack on eight regions of Russia in the latest display of Kyiv’s expanding drone capacity. – Associated Press

Russian lawmakers have submitted a draft bill to the State Duma that would rewrite a chapter of history by nullifying the Soviet decision in 1954 to transfer Crimea from Russia to Ukraine. – Reuters

The first condition for any negotiations to end the war in Ukraine is that Russia should halt its aggression, the second in command to Pope Francis said in a newspaper interview on Tuesday. – Reuters

Ukraine pounded targets across Russia on Tuesday with at least 25 drones and seven missiles, Russia’s defence ministry said, in a sweeping attack that one local official said had left at least one refinery in the world’s second biggest oil exporter on fire. – Reuters

The Kremlin on Monday said a call by Pope Francis for talks to end the Ukraine war was “quite understandable”, but NATO’s boss said now was not the time to talk about “surrender”. – Reuters

The Kremlin elite is feverishly jostling for position in Vladimir Putin’s new term as the president surrounds himself with loyalists to pursue his war in Ukraine. – Bloomberg

The deadlock in Ukraine is “shifting the momentum” in the war there in Moscow’s favor, US intelligence agencies told senators on Monday. – Bloomberg

Russia in recent months has made battlefield gains in some pockets of Ukraine, leading to new calls for Ukraine to relinquish territory as part of negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. But CIA director William Burns on Monday told Senators that Russia has no desire to negotiate beyond “theater.” – Defense One

Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson said he was “not going to move the ball” if he asked Russian President Vladimir Putin about the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. – The Hill

James Stavridis writes: Principled militaries around the globe should not only to applaud the prosecution of Russian flag officers, but also to review their own procedures, ethics, morality and adherence to the laws of war and the Geneva Conventions. – Bloomberg

Francis Harris writes: The conscripts who entertained me at that dreary Bohemian barracks 28 years ago are middle-aged men now. Their sons and daughters only serve in the 28,000-person armed forces if they choose to, because the force is all-volunteer. NATO has delivered the security that has helped secure the extraordinary success of the post-1993 Czech Republic. And the Czech people, along with the people of the other new members, have made the rest of us safer in return. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Aura Sabadus writes: Unless there is a coordinated effort to introduce blanket sanctions against Rosatom and its subsidiaries and remove Russian representatives from global organizations such as the International Atomic Energy Agency, which they may be manipulating, Ukraine and its Western partners will remain dangerously vulnerable to Moscow’s nuclear blackmail. – Center for European Policy Analysis


Lebanon’s Hezbollah group said it carried out a drone attack on Monday against an Israeli air defence outpost across the border in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. – Reuters

The Israel Defense Forces carried out strikes deep in Lebanon late Monday, saying fighter jets hit a pair of sites belonging to the Hezbollah terror group. – Times of Israel

Dan Illouz writes: The path forward is fraught with difficulty, but the resilience and determination of the Israeli people have always been our greatest assets in the face of adversity. – Jerusalem Post

Arabian Peninsula

Yemen’s Houthi rebels targeted a Liberian-flagged container ship in the Red Sea with missiles on Monday, producing an explosion near the vessel but causing no damage, authorities said. – Associated Press

Airstrikes attributed to a U.S.-British coalition hit port cities and small towns in western Yemen on Monday, killing at least 11 people and injuring 14 while defending commercial shipping, a spokesperson for Yemen’s internationally recognized government told Reuters. – Reuters

An American diplomatic trip to Saudi Arabia was cut off Monday after a Saudi official asked a Jewish member of the group to remove their kippah, a head covering traditionally worn by Jewish men. – The Hill

Salem Alketbi writes: The most pressing question for observers here is: Is the US-China competition an obstacle to the stability of the Middle East, helping to deepen the conflict between the regional powers and maintain strategic polarization? Or will the desire of some of these powers – especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE – for security and stability manage to create the necessary environment for pursuing their ambitious development plans, in order to avoid the impact of polar competition on the region and work toward peace and coexistence, notwithstanding all the factors of disagreement and divergence? – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

President Biden, marking the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, said he would press for a cease-fire in Gaza and more humanitarian aid for the territory, and noted that many American Muslims were grieving for family members killed there. – New York Times

Five years after the Islamic State group lost the last sliver of land it controlled in Syria, nearly 30,000 children of militants and their supporters of various nationalities are suffering abuse in camps, prisons and rehabilitation centers in the war-torn country’s northwest, a U.N.-backed commission said Monday. – Associated Press

Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said on Monday restrictions imposed by Israel on Muslim worshippers’ access to Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque compound during the Muslim fasting month was pushing the situation towards an “explosion”. – Reuters

Richard Blumenthal and Chris Coons write: At every stop on our trip, we heard that the solution to building greater security and a potential path toward peace is more U.S. engagement, not less. Our colleagues in the House of Representatives who tend toward an uninvolved, isolationist approach need to hear that, and they must help us meet that challenge by promptly passing the national security supplemental. We can set the Israel-Hamas war on a path to peace by making it clear to the Israelis what we expect from them in the region and taking steps to ensure a real Palestinian future. We can give Ukraine the support it needs to defeat the brutal Russian invasion. That might seem like a tall order, but none of it comes together without the United States leading the way. – Foreign Policy

Daniel Byman writes: Its problems are large, enmities run deep, and the U.S. presence has shrunk notably in the past decade. Yet further reducing the U.S. role is perilous. This critical but unstable region could become far more chaotic and war-prone, with anti-American regimes becoming stronger and more entrenched. A limited American presence, for all its problems, is better than none at all. – Foreign Affairs


China’s factory exports are powering ahead faster than almost anyone expected, putting jobs around the world in jeopardy and setting off a backlash that is gaining momentum. – New York Times

China’s National People’s Congress has discussed everything from Taiwan to technology, but observers say the key message – both in substance and style – has been clear: more control for President Xi Jinping and a deeper focus on national security. – Reuters

China’s parliament on Monday revised a law to effectively grant the Communist Party more executive control over China’s cabinet, the State Council, after cancelling the premier’s post-parliament news conference for the first time in three decades. – Reuters

Tom Rogan writes: So, yes, Trump wants Yass’s money and support. And yes, while Trump may also believe TikTok offers a valuable campaign opportunity, that’s no excuse for his stance here. Trump should be following Biden’s example and pledging to approve any divestment requirement that comes out of Congress. Either that, or Trump must accept that when it comes to espionage threats, Biden is tougher on China than he is. – Washington Examiner

Amit Kumar writes: Thus, domestic consumption seems unlikely to be able to fuel China’s growth. The rising unemployment rate, declining consumer confidence, aging population, and rising dependence ratio will further burden any attempt to raise China’s consumption. These trends may be baked in the near to medium term. China will not see a return to the high growth rates witnessed in 1980-2010 and will instead stabilize near 4 percent. This will likely derail China’s plan to transition from a middle- to a high-income country and certainly dent Xi’s dream of transforming China into an advanced socialist country. The much-dreaded fear of the “middle-income trap” is real for China. – Foreign Policy

Nikolas K. Gvosdev writes: Might these documents have been strategically leaked—at this particular point in time—to not so subtly remind China (and the United States) that Russia is contemplating a lower threshold for nuclear use as a warning against taking advantage of Russian weaknesses? The beauty of the leak is that the Kremlin can formally distance itself from the documents (and even claim that the documents are outdated) while still achieving its purpose. China is reminded that tangling with Russia would be costly, and Beijing’s aims and desires can be better accommodated by continued cooperation within the existing framework of China-Russia relations. Yes, the bear might be sick—but its claws remain sharp. – The National Interest

South Asia

India has successfully conducted the maiden flight test of an indigenously developed ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple warheads, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Monday, a development that enhances the country’s nuclear deterrence against rivals China and Pakistan. – Wall Street Journal

Muhammad Aurangzeb, picked by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to be Pakistan’s finance minister, is a vastly experienced private banker who is one of the most highly paid executives in the country, but has never held public office before. – Reuters

A second Chinese research vessel in two months has been spotted near India’s coast, adding to New Delhi’s anxiety over possible military intelligence-gathering in its backyard. – Reuters

India on Tuesday rejected Chinese objections to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s weekend visit to Arunachal Pradesh, saying the northeastern border state has always been “an integral and inalienable part of India”. – Reuters

India moved on Monday to implement a 2019 citizenship law that has been criticised as discriminating against Muslims, weeks before Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks a rare third term for his Hindu nationalist government. – Reuters

The 19-member Cabinet of Pakistan’s newly elected Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif was sworn into office on Monday and held its first meeting. The prime minister appointed several top government posts and promised to tackle the country’s unrelenting economic crisis. – Associated Press

Hundreds of Tibetans in exile marched on the streets of New Delhi on Sunday to commemorate the 65th Tibetan National Uprising Day against China – Associated Press

India signed a trade agreement with Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland on Sunday that includes a commitment of $100 billion in investments and creating 1 million direct jobs in India in the next 15 years. – Associated Press

India’s government rejected comments made by China’s foreign ministry over the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to a disputed border region on the weekend. – Bloomberg

Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi have joined forces to drive innovation in India through a new Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) agreement. This initiative marks IAI’s commitment to social responsibility in India and underscores both parties’ dedication to technological progress. – Jerusalem Post

Beth Bailey writes: Without abrupt congressional intervention, Afghan allies who risked their lives to support U.S. personnel during nearly 20 years of operations in Afghanistan may soon lose access to the special immigrant visas they were promised. – Washington Examiner


Taiwan’s vice president-elect is in Washington this week for a low-profile visit, according to people with knowledge of the matter, a trip that comes at a delicate time in the Biden administration’s dealings with China. – Wall Street Journal

Thailand’s election commission on Tuesday passed a resolution to request a court to dissolve the opposition Move Forward party. – Reuters

North Korea’s Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs Pak Myong Ho met with Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh on Monday, North Korean state media KCNA said, in a rare foreign trip by a diplomatic delegation from the isolated state. – Reuters

Thailand expects to complete negotiations over a free trade agreement with the European Union in 2025, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin said on Tuesday, as the government seeks to draw trade and investment to boost the economy. – Reuters

The Philippine foreign ministry said on Tuesday it had received several maritime-related proposals from China, but added they could not be considered because they were against the Southeast Asian country’s national interests. – Reuters


French President Emmanuel Macron, who once sought to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin, has emerged as one of the West’s most outspoken Russia hawks, forcing Europe into a potentially decisive moment over Ukraine as U.S. backing for Kyiv is blocked in Congress. – Wall Street Journal

Authorities in Europe say they have foiled several terror plots, some involving suspects posing as refugees, raising alarm about a growing array of threats from extremists. – Wall Street Journal

President Joe Biden is hosting Poland’s president and prime minister for White House talks on Tuesday with the Polish leaders looking to press Washington to break its impasse over replenishing funds for Ukraine at a critical moment in the war in Europe. – Associated Press

Poland’s president on Monday called on other members of the NATO alliance to raise their spending on defense to 3% of their gross domestic product as Russia puts its economy on a war footing and pushes forward with its invasion of Ukraine. – Associated Press

Portugal’s inconclusive general election results mean weeks of political uncertainty ahead, and give fresh energy to Europe’s shift toward the radical right. – Associated Press

The French navy frigate, bristling with weaponry and powering through frigid Norwegian seas not so far from Russia, awoke at 7:30 a.m. sharp to what, in the circumstances, was a surreal sound. – Associated Press

Italian police have arrested three Palestinians based in central Italy who they said were planning attacks in an unspecified country, a police statement said on Monday. – Reuters

The big winners of the global weapons race are the U.S. and France while Russia saw a steep fall, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s latest analysis of arms transfers. – Politico

Kyiv’s accidental war slogan “Russian warship, go fuck yourself” is at the center of a fierce trademark battle between Ukraine’s State Border Guard and the European Union Intellectual Property Office (EUIPO). – Politico

Agathe Demarais writes: The claim that sanctions are costly and ineffective is easy to debunk, but this narrative does not appear likely to go away any time soon. As Russia-friendly politicians step up their campaigning for the European Parliament and other elections, one can only expect these talking points to become ever more prevalent in the coming weeks. That may be yet another sign that these myths are wrong: If sanctions were not having a serious effect on Russia, the Kremlin and its allies in the West would probably not spend as much energy trying to undermine them. – Foreign Policy

Jaroslaw Kuisz And Karolina Wigura write: The new government can, of course, limit itself to meeting the expectations of its own electorate. But its long-term goal is something else: the stabilization of liberal democracy in Poland. To achieve this agenda, it will need to attract voters who did not vote for change in the fall of 2023. Thus, a new political experiment has begun in Poland, and the world will be watching closely to see if its post-populist era is here to stay. – Foreign Affairs

Wilson Beaver writes: The Army deserves praise for moving quickly on these new systems, for being proactive in its engagements with partner and allied nations in the Pacific, and for being responsive to policymakers pushing it to reorient its procurement and force structure around the Indo–Pacific. If the Army is able to build and deploy significant numbers of these new systems to the Indo–Pacific, it will deter China from launching an attack on either American forces or its partners and allies. – Heritage Foundation


Angola’s President Joao Lourenco will visit China from March 14 to 17, the Chinese foreign ministry said in a statement on Tuesday. – Reuters

The rally in Africa’s sovereign bonds is barely taking time for a breather, with the prices of the securities in countries including Ethiopia, Ghana and Rwanda rising to almost two-year highs. – Bloomberg

Lauren Evans writes: The world has turned a blind eye on Sudan, but it cannot continue to do so. As the Sudanese people call out for the international community to listen, the U.S. must answer their call with action. Sanctions alone will not end the war. – The Hill


The Americas

Ariel Henry, Haiti’s embattled prime minister, will resign once a transitional presidential council is established and an interim leader is selected, Caribbean Community (Caricom) leaders said late Monday – Washington Post

Raymond Joseph writes: For the past several years, I have been warning furiously — in The New York Sun and in my own paper, the Haiti-Observateur — of the danger of gang rule in Haiti. “As long as the gang issue isn’t dealt with, nothing can be dealt with in Haiti.” Now I add, “As long as there’s not a remobilized modern Haitian Army, under democratic governance, there won’t be security in Haiti” — or a Haiti itself. – New York Sun

Tony Frangie-Mawad writes: Even so, the Maduro regime does not appear to be letting up. The PCV is just one of eight organizations whose boards faced judicial interventions in 2023, including the Venezuelan Red Cross. And the National Assembly recently revived the discussion and approval process for a bill that would increase government control over Venezuelan nongovernmental organizations. Instead of organizing competitive elections, the regime may only further suppress what remains of Venezuela’s civil society as this year’s vote nears. By turning on its ideological allies, the regime may succeed in ensuring that those groups are not able to influence its bases, such as rural communities and industrial workers, even if doing so comes at the expense of alienating its international supporters and further fracturing the Chavista movement. – Foreign Policy

Imran Bayoumi writes: The Global Fragility Act is a landmark piece of legislation that, when combined with the strategy, offers Washington a chance to redefine how it approaches stabilization missions. As Haiti illustrates, there is a clear and urgent need for smartly targeted U.S. moves to protect ordinary people from violence. U.S. policymakers should ensure that the benefits of the strategy are maximized over the remaining time frame, as doing so will bring stability while helping Washington to achieve its strategic interests. – Foreign Policy

United States

Joe Biden and Donald Trump hope to clinch their parties’ presidential nominations with dominant victories in a slate of state primaries on Tuesday as the 2024 fight for the White House moves into a new phase. – Associated Press

Hugh De Santis writes: Lastly, the United States can remain a powerful force for political and economic liberalism in the world. Liberalism has not outlived its purpose, as Putin self-servingly claimed before the G20 summit in 2019. True, only 8 percent of the world’s population lives in a fully functioning democracy, but more than half of the world’s population will go to the polls in 2024 to voice their individual opinions. Rather than lecture the developing world to practice democracy, like nineteenth-century circuit riders preaching the gospel in rural America, the United States can again become a model for others to emulate. – The National Interest

Joseph Webster writes: Bipartisan shipbuilding legislation is politically achievable and necessary. Two previous industrial policy bills, the CHIPS Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, were able to pass with support from both aisles of Congress. To address challenges from China and climate, the United States should embrace a proposal first made by retired U.S. Navy Capt. Jerry Hendrix and pass a bipartisan SHIPS Act that provides funding for both military and civilian shipbuilding. – War on the Rocks

Jami Miscik, Peter Orszag, and Theodore Bunzel write: More broadly, U.S. policymakers will have to get comfortable with a broad set of questions and problems that their forebears during the Cold War and its immediate aftermath had the luxury of avoiding. They will have to develop new economic expertise, build new relationships with industry, and find new ways to operate. But it is worth remembering that those earlier generations of policymakers had to do all those things, as well, in response to the geopolitical paradigm shifts of their times. – Foreign Affairs

Lieutenant General Henry Obering III and Robert Peters write: The Ukraine war and the crisis in Israel have shown how missile defenses can be incredibly effective. And an integrated missile defense architecture that incorporates an overlayer is the only way to stay ahead of the ever-growing North Korean and Iranian missile threat while still allowing the U.S. the opportunity to close off the low-escalation pathway to Russia and China. – Heritage Foundation


The French government said Monday that several of its services have been targeted by cyberattacks of “unprecedented intensity,” and a special crisis center was activated to restore online services. – Associated Press

The U.S. Department of Defense is seeking $14.5 billion for its cyberspace endeavors, including safeguarding information networks with zero trust initiatives, increasing manpower and researching advanced computing. – Defense News

President Joe Biden’s budget proposal for fiscal year 2025 calls for $13 billion in cybersecurity funding for civilian agencies, including additional investments to the Departments of Justice, Homeland Security and Health and Human Services to bolster digital defenses, the White House announced Monday. – CyberScoop

U.S. intelligence officials warned on Monday that the United States faces a growing threat from an accelerating pace of technological innovation and proliferation and that governments are struggling to adapt and respond to these changes. – CyberScoop

Editorial: China has blocked U.S. social-media companies that don’t comply with its censorship regime, and the House bill would prevent Beijing from applying its political speech controls and surveillance in the U.S. Despite America’s political divisions, this ought to be a shared goal. – Wall Street Journal

Aziz Huq writes: A fragmented legal order is one in which deeply dangerous AI models can be developed and disseminated as instruments of geopolitical conflict. A country’s efforts to manage AI could easily be undermined by those outside its borders. And autocracies may be free to both manipulate their own publics using AI and exploit democracies’ free flow of information to weaken them from within. There is much to be lost, then, if a global effort to regulate AI never truly materializes. – Foreign Affairs


The United States is constantly assessing the need to expand export controls to stop China from acquiring advanced computer chips and manufacturing equipment that could be used to boost its military, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said Monday. – Associated Press

The Pentagon has sent $10 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine that it still does not have the money to replace due to congressional gridlock, according to a top Defense Department official. – Politico

The Air Force’s proposed budget for fiscal 2025 would cut procurement of two major fighter programs — the F-35A and F-15EX Eagle II — and boost research and development funding for future capabilities. – Defense News

The U.S. Navy will postpone most of its planned development and purchases of large unmanned systems and next-generation ships and planes in fiscal 2025, citing spending caps. – Defense News

The U.S. Army is changing its approach to acquiring a long-range artillery capability and scrapping its 58-caliber Extended Range Cannon Artillery prototyping effort, according to the service’s acquisition chief. – Defense News

The U.S. Space Force’s $29.4 billion fiscal year 2025 budget request is $600 million lower than what it asked for in FY24 — a dip that follows three years of steady growth for the fledgling service. – Defense News

For the first time, Pentagon officials on Monday estimated the cost of Replicator, a program to field thousands of drones before August 2025 to counter China. – Defense News

The Pentagon’s $849.8 billion funding request for fiscal 2025 comes as last year’s budget request remains unpassed, a new law has imposed limits on government growth, and the White House is pleading with Congress to pass a supplemental funding bill to replenish arms stockpiles sent to Ukraine and better arm Taiwan. – Defense One

The Air Force had to make cuts in its budget proposal for next year, officials warned, amid reports the service won’t be able to buy as many F-35 fighter jets as it had planned. – Defense One

The Defense Department’s early effort to build a fleet of small, unmanned craft designed to stymie a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will cost about $1 billion, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said on Monday. – USNI News

The lead ship in the Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine program is facing a potential one-year delay due to supplier issues, putting the Navy’s number one acquisition program at risk and creating a potential gap in the U.S. nuclear strategic deterrent, five people familiar with the delay told USNI News. – USNI News

The Navy wants to buy six battle force ships and decommission 19 ships in the next fiscal year, according to the service’s latest budget request. – USNI News

Harrison Kass writes: But if the US public is not fully invested, if the population is divided, or apathetic, or skeptical, (as in Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan) then American war planners would be less likely to risk the sinking of an aircraft carrier. And if the public is not fully supportive of a conflict, the US may want to reevaluate the necessity of participating in the conflict. – The National Interest

Stavros Atlamazoglou writes: The “Lightning Carrier” concept that pairs amphibious assault ships – essentially small aircraft carriers – with advanced fighter jets like the F-35B Lightning II can still achieve a lot on the battlefield and help determine a naval clash. More of these ships, coupled with investment in anti-missile technologies such as directed-energy weapons and hypersonic munitions, could be decisive factors in the next near-peer conflict. – The National Interest

Aedan Yohannan writes: All of this is liable to come at a high cost. As China has eloquently demonstrated with its Lunar plans, the clock is ticking. For America to actually take advantage of the strategic opportunities presented by Lunar development, it will need to start thinking more about how space serves the long-term national interest. – The National Interest