Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
U.S. sanctions imposed on Iranian shipping network over proliferation take effect JPost’s Seth J. Frantzman: Syrian currency collapse throws country into uncertainty Turkey seeks 191 soldiers for alleged tie to US-based cleric Don’t bother calling us, North Korea tells South, as Kim’s sister dials up threats Trump plans to sign bill pressuring China over Uighur Muslim crackdown Report: Killing of Utah mayor in Afghanistan was planned U.S. and Russia to meet June 22 on curbing nuclear stockpiles Germany: US troop reduction could harm NATO security Venezuela says flight arrives from Iran carrying COVID-19 aid Trump’s unexpected allies in the fight against Twitter and censorship: Facebook and the FCC Senate faults oversight of Chinese telecom companies in U.S.In The News
Iran
After 11 years of stalling, Iran passed a law on Sunday making it a crime to emotionally or physically abuse or abandon a child, the nation’s first legal protection for children and juveniles. – New York Times
Iran’s health ministry urged people on Monday to wear face masks in public areas, state television reported, following warnings that the Islamic Republic could face a new wave of coronavirus infections. – Reuters
Iran announced on Tuesday that it will execute a man convicted of allegedly providing information to the U.S. and Israel about prominent Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in an American drone strike in Baghdad in January. – Associated Press
U.S. sanctions imposed on Iran’s shipping network took effect on Monday, months after they were announced in December following accusations of supporting proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. – Reuters
Iran dismissed President Donald Trump’s offer of a better deal with the U.S. over its nuclear program as “nothing but political showboating.” – Bloomberg
Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned that America’s foreign adversaries are using the death of George Floyd and the resulting unrest regarding racism and police brutality in the United States to promote propaganda that paints the U.S. as an oppressive government. – Washington Examiner
Christopher Hamill-Stewart writes: Soleimani’s death hurt Iran. It ushered in six months of foreign-policy failure, domestic strife during the coronavirus pandemic and a slow-motion economic collapse within Iran. Without the “shadow commander,” the regime’s grip on its proxies and regional influence appear to be in retreat. It would be premature, however, to count Tehran out completely. – Arab News
Kevjn Lim writes: Absent self-sufficiency and geopolitical stability, even a government with robust reserves would do well to diversify its grain supply basket, or at least be able to do so on short notice. In Tehran, however, guns are generally sexier than butter when it comes to making budgetary decisions and crafting foreign policy. This ethos leaves the country vulnerable to big supply shocks, food shortages, and spiraling prices that can produce effects no less momentous than wars. – Washington Institute
Syria
Protests continued for a second day in regime-held southern Syria, where demonstrators openly denounced President Bashar al-Assad in a rare show of dissent in the authoritarian state. – Financial Times
Insurgents briefly captured several government-held positions in northwest Syria Monday, in fighting that left more than 40 fighters dead on both sides, opposition activists said. – Associated Press
Seth J. Frantzman writes: The Syrian regime thought it was finally out of the woods in its almost decade-long civil war. It recaptured southern Syria in 2018 and has pushed up against US forces along the Euphrates. It has launched offensives into Idlib with Russian and Iranian backing. […]But the regime is gutted and weak. It has no finances and is fighting internally with family feuds within the Assad ruling clan. That means it is like a house of cards: very fragile. Russia can’t save the regime from everything. – Jerusalem Post
Turkey
Turkey is poised to join one of Europe’s largest securities depositories, allowing investors to settle trades in its government bonds, as it bids to attract more international capital at a time when foreign investment has hit a record low. – Financial Times
Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has said he reached some agreements with President Donald Trump in telephone talks about the situation in Libya. – Associated Press
Turkish prosecutors issued warrants Tuesday for the detention of 191 suspects — including 181 on-duty servicemen — who are suspected of involvement in a scheme that allegedly recruited followers of the U.S.-based Muslim cleric blamed for a failed coup in 2016 into air force training schools, the state-run news agency reported. – Associated Press
Israel
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has assured Jewish settlers that he is going ahead with plans to begin annexing parts of the occupied West Bank next month, a settler representative said Monday. – Associated Press
IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi warned on Monday that cutting Israel’s defense budget would be a “grave mistake” and a result of a “security paradox” in which the military’s operational successes had created a sense that its resources could be reduced. – Algemeiner
Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) has received a $350 million contract from a European country for special mission aircraft, the state-controlled company said on Monday. – Algemeiner
In the event of a partial annexation of the West Bank, Israel believes that Germany would serve a diplomatic “buffer,” moderating possible punitive measures from the European Union. – Algemeiner
A Blue and White minister on Tuesday said the centrist party has reached an agreement with Likud on annexing the Jordan Valley, but that party chair Defense Minister Benny Gantz would only support the plan if it was backed by the United States and some Arab countries. – Times of Israel
International Criminal Court Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda has told the ICC’s Pretrial Chamber that a war crimes probe against Israelis can proceed despite the continued application of the Oslo Accords. – Jerusalem Post
Israeli security forces on Monday detained 25 activists belonging to the Palestinian ruling Fatah faction in Jerusalem on suspicion of carrying out activities on behalf of the PA and its security forces in the city. – Jerusalem Post
David Makovsky writes: Many worry that annexation will lead to the demise of the Palestinian Authority and erode Israel’s identity as a Jewish and democratic state. The European Union, Israel’s biggest trading partner, remains strongly opposed to annexation. And some Israelis worry that annexation would doom bipartisanship in the United States, which has been traditionally crucial for Israel. The unthinkable is possible, but not yet inevitable. – Washington Post
Zev Chafets writes: The Trump plan, perhaps improbably given its provenance, reflects the realities of today’s West Bank demography and the balance of power between Israel and its neighbors. The two-state solution of 2020 cannot be the same as the one envisioned 50 years ago. Even so, its success is a long shot. A necessary condition is the belief of young Palestinians in the good faith of Israel and the United States. An unnecessary and provocative annexation right now is a mistake. – Bloomberg
Iraq
A rocket landed in the perimeter of Baghdad International Airport on Monday, the Iraqi military said. – Reuters
A U.S. military plane crashed into an Iraqi military base north of the capital on Monday without causing fatalities, the U.S.-led coalition said. – Associated Press
Isis terrorists have ramped up attacks in Iraq, forcing government troops to step up counter-insurgency operations just as western members of the anti-Isis coalition have pared back their presence in the country. – Financial Times
Libya
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu on Monday agreed on the need to collaborate to create the conditions for a peace process in Libya, Russia’s foreign ministry said in a statement. – Reuters
The United Arab Emirates supports a new Egyptian peace initiative for Libya as a move towards a ceasefire and political solution, a senior official said on Monday. – Reuters
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said a deal with the U.S. over Libya was likely after his phone call with Donald Trump on Monday. – Bloomberg
Libyan fighters allied with the country’s U.N.-supported government in Tripoli pressed their advance on Monday, boosted by recent battlefield gains and their rivals’ withdrawal from around the capital, the warring sides reported. – Associated Press
Korean Peninsula
North Korea said it would shut telephone hotlines with South Korea on Tuesday and ultimately sever all communications with its neighbor, hardening its policy as it attempts to gain concessions from Seoul. – Washington Post
China said on Tuesday it hopes North Korea and South Korea will cooperate through dialogue, amid renewed tensions after Pyongyang said it will cut hotlines with Seoul. – Reuters
A United Nations human rights expert voiced alarm on Tuesday at what he called “widespread food shortages and malnutrition” in North Korea, which have been exacerbated by a nearly five-month border closure with China and measures against COVID-19. – Reuters
China
China is making fresh efforts to influence Chinese communities around the world to advance Beijing’s interests, requiring heightened vigilance from democratic countries, a new study says. – Wall Street Journal
As the Trump administration lashes out at China over a range of grievances, Beijing’s top diplomats and representatives are using the president’s favorite online megaphone — Twitter — to slap back with a pugnaciousness that is best described as Trumpian. – New York Times
U.S. President Donald Trump plans to sign legislation calling for sanctions on Chinese officials responsible for oppressing Uighur Muslims, a source familiar with the matter said on Monday without offering a time frame for the signing. – Reuters
Afghanistan
Talks to end the 18-year-old conflict in Afghanistan may begin this month, sources said on Monday, a day after the U.S. special envoy visited the capital of neighbouring Pakistan and met Taliban leaders in Qatar. – Reuters
An Afghan commando who fatally shot a Utah mayor serving in the National Guard in 2018 had planned the killing for weeks, according to an Army investigative report. – Associated Press
On June 1, 2020, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the Afghan Taliban organization), which signed a peace agreement with the U.S. in Doha on February 29, 2020, released a video showing Taliban leaders addressing squads of suicide bombers at a passing-out parade at the Al-Fateh Military Camp located somewhere in Afghanistan. Titled “Victorious Force (1),” the video was produced by Al-Hijra Studio, which is part of the Multimedia Department of the Islamic Emirate’s Commission for Cultural Affairs. – Middle East Media Research Institute
Asia
China’s leadership believes its main challenge in Hong Kong is a political struggle against forces trying to subvert Communist Party rule, a senior Chinese official said Monday, marking a shift in Beijing’s official diagnosis of unrest in the city. – Wall Street Journal
One year ago on Tuesday, hundreds of thousands of demonstrators in Hong Kong gathered for a march that became the start of the semiautonomous Chinese city’s biggest political crisis and the broadest expression of public anger with Beijing in decades. – New York Times
A year on from the start of Hong Kong’s anti-government protests, the leader of the semi-autonomous Chinese city said Tuesday that all sides should learn from the difficulties and challenging times over the past year. – Associated Press
Japan hopes to draft a joint statement on China’s new security legislation on Hong Kong at the next Group of Seven (G7) foreign ministers’ meeting, a Japanese government source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Monday. – Reuters
Armenia’s prime minister sacked the heads of the army, police and national security service on Monday, saying they had set a bad example over coronavirus restrictions. – Reuters
Taiwan’s air force warned off several Chinese fighter jets that briefly entered Taiwan’s air defence identification zone to its southwest on Tuesday, the defence ministry said. Reuters
New Zealand police on Tuesday scrapped plans for armed patrols prompted by last year’s Christchurch mosque shootings, after criticism the change would lead to a US-style militarisation of the force. – Agence France-Presse
The world is heading for a shortage of the highly prized and super-soft cashmere wool as pashmina goats that live on the “roof of the world” become caught up in the fractious border dispute between nuclear neighbours India and China. – Agence France-Presse
Hong Kong’s leader said she told Chinese officials the city should be transformed into a global hub for private wealth and a more prominent offshore Renminbi center, even amid concerns about the former British colony’s future as a financial center. – Bloomberg
Hong Kong-based hedge funds are exploring plans to uproot their operations as China prepares to impose sweeping national security legislation on the Asian financial hub. – Financial Times
Chinese investment in Australia fell to its lowest level in a decade last year following the implementation of tougher rules on foreign investment and a sharp deterioration in diplomatic relations between the nations. – Financial Times
The Philippine government is putting the brakes on its plan to end a critical aspect of its Mutual Defense Treaty with the U.S., but experts say it is too soon to tell whether this decision signals a warming relationship between the two allies. – USNI News
The development of South Korea’s indigenous KF-X fighter jet has taken another step forward with GE Aviation delivering the first engine for program, although development partner Indonesia continues to rack up overdue payments for its share. – Defense News
Aparna Pande writes: The crisis unleashed by the coronavirus pandemic will almost definitely create a new global order, and India could emerge stronger. But for that, Indians will have to shed the complacency that comes from believing that the nation’s long history makes its rise inevitable.[…] To appeal to neighbours, counter rivals, and bolster alliances, India needs to be economically strong with a rising GDP and a skilled labour force, while welcoming foreign investment and less government regulations. – Hudson Institute
Russia
Russian authorities have charged the director of an Arctic power plant that leaked 20,000 tons of diesel fuel into the ecologically fragile region with violating environmental regulations, a crime that could bring five years in prison. – Associated Press
Russia’s foreign minister is accusing the Trump administration of unleashing a politically motivated campaign against Iran and is calling for “universal condemnation” of the U.S. attempt to get the U.N. Security Council to impose a permanent arms embargo against the Islamic Republic. – Associated Press
The U.S. and Russia will send senior officials to Vienna on June 22 for a new round of arms-control talks, a State Department official said, as the Trump administration tries to enlist Moscow’s help bringing China into broader negotiations to limit all three countries’ nuclear weapons stockpiles. – Bloomberg
Russians preparing to vote on constitutional amendments on July 1 could be forgiven for not knowing they could pave the way for President Vladimir Putin to rule for another 12 years once his current term expires. Months of television, online and poster advertisements have listed proposed changes to pension rights, animal rights and others. But they have failed to highlight the fact that the amendments would allow Putin to run again for president, despite having served the constitutional maximum of two consecutive terms. – Reuters
Europe
Germany’s defense minister suggested Monday that U.S. President Donald Trump’s reported plans to withdraw more than a quarter of American troops out of Germany could weaken not only the NATO alliance but the U.S. itself. – Associated Press
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg downplayed initial reports that President Trump planned to withdraw 9,500 troops from bases in Germany while expressing concerns of an emboldened and more aggressive Russia. – Washington Examiner
The U.K. and Japan start trade talks Tuesday, aiming to replace the free-trade agreement that Britain currently enjoys with the country through the European Union. – Bloomberg
Prosecutors at Spain’s supreme court will investigate the former king Juan Carlos over suspected payments concerning a €7bn high-speed train project in Saudi Arabia, in the latest controversy concerning the former head of state, who abdicated in 2014. – Financial Times
Andreas Kluth writes: The tragedy for the world is that, without the U.S. as its guarantor, the wider “West” is also ceasing to exist as an idea, leading to global instability and anxiety, or “Westlessness,” as some think tankers have punned. […]Germans are certainly among those doubting whether Trump’s America is, in that sense, Western. […]Let’s hope the Americans stay in Germany, and that Europeans reciprocate by doing their part in military defense. Otherwise, it’ll be the cynics celebrating, from Germany’s anti-American Left to the autocrats in Moscow, Beijing and elsewhere. – Bloomberg
Heather A. Conley writes: But if both sides can overcome these obstacles, a U.S.-UK FTA could reorient the UK economy toward North American markets, perhaps justifying closer steps toward integration with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. If a UK-U.S. FTA cannot be agreed to by the end of the year, the UK government will be left unable to immediately demonstrate Brexit benefits while the British people will vividly experience its costs. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Africa
Tanzanian opposition leader Tundu Lissu will run for president in elections in October, three years after surviving an assassination attempt. – Bloomberg
Ethiopia’s prime minister called on opposition members to be patient amid concerns that the postponement of elections will create a constitutional crisis and stoke political tension. – Bloomberg
Andrew Harding writes: But it is also clear that China is using the cover of Covid-19, and America’s many distractions and current struggles, to promote its political agenda on the continent with growing boldness and – I suspect – effectiveness. That is not to suggest that African states – or journalists – are pawns, to be manipulated at will by global powers. But how many governments on the continent, heavily in debt to Chinese banks and under growing Covid-19-related economic pressure, may now be tempted to abandon “the failed… populist multiparty format”, and move towards the “resilience” of China’s political system? – BBC
The Americas
Venezuela’s government said on Monday that a flight carrying humanitarian aid for the COVID-19 epidemic had arrived from Iran, which has become a crucial ally to the South American nation amid U.S. sanctions. – Reuters
Canada is narrowly easing some border restrictions to allow immediate family members of Canadian citizens and permanent residents separated because of the coronavirus pandemic to reunite, officials said on Monday. – Reuters
The head of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police on Monday said she would seek to equip officers with body-worn cameras to increase trust, accountability and transparency, according to a statement from a spokesman. – Reuters
Cybersecurity
Hundreds, if not thousands, of Philippine journalists and students awoke Sunday to find Facebook accounts made in their names — mostly ghostlike profiles with few or no friends, no pictures and sometimes misspellings. – Washington Post
Facebook and some members of the Federal Communications Commission appear to be helping President Trump in his war against Twitter as he pushes for unfettered speech and less content moderation online. – Washington Examiner
Denmark wants to be able to exclude 5G technology suppliers from providing critical infrastructure in Denmark if they are not from countries considered security allies, online technology news outlet ITWatch reported on Monday. – Reuters
IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said Monday that the tech giant will stop offering facial recognition software and called for a “national dialogue” on the way the technology is used for law enforcement. – Business Insider
The Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) has halted all coronavirus-related surveillance of infected citizens, The Jerusalem Post has learned. – Jerusalem Post
Defense
Two carrier strike groups deployed to the Pacific on Monday – the first since the Navy developed a new set of procedures to protect the ships underway from the COVID-19 virus. – USNI News
The Navy and Marine Corps are looking to quickly overhaul their Cold War-era way of moving Marines around, with the services already agreeing on the basic requirements for a new Light Amphibious Warship (LAW) and in the early phases of looking at a separate small amphibious ship class. – USNI News
The secretary of the Army recently acknowledged the emotional challenges National Guard members face in their civil unrest response mission, but said soldiers and airmen cannot protest in uniform. – Military.com
Trump Administration
Senate investigators said Tuesday that government officials had “exercised minimal oversight” of the risks posed by three Chinese telecom companies that operate on American communications networks. – Washington Post
President Donald Trump’s decision to cut U.S. troop levels in Germany blindsided a number of senior national security officials, according to five sources familiar with the matter, and the Pentagon had yet to receive a formal order to carry it out, Reuters has learned. – Reuters
President Trump and his allies on Monday lashed out at activists and some Democrats for their support of the “defund the police” movement, seeking to draw a contrast with the administration’s embrace of law enforcement amid nationwide protests. – The Hill