Fdd's overnight brief

Russia

Just to enter Sievierodonetsk, Ukrainian soldiers run a gantlet of Russian artillery shells zeroed in on the only access route: a bridge littered with the burned husks of cars and trucks that didn’t make it. – New York Times 

Russia is ramping up oil exports from its major eastern port of Kozmino by about a fifth, aiming to meet surging demand from Asian buyers and offset the impact of European Union sanctions, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. – Reuters 

Russia on Tuesday claimed to have taken control of 97% of one of the two provinces that make up Ukraine’s Donbas, bringing the Kremlin closer to its goal of fully capturing the eastern industrial heartland of coal mines and factories. – Associated Press 

The World Bank has sharply downgraded its outlook for the global economy, pointing to Russia’s war against Ukraine, the prospect of widespread food shortages and concerns about the potential return of “stagflation” — a toxic mix of high inflation and sluggish growth unseen for more than four decades. – Associated Press 

The US Treasury stepped up financial sanctions on Russia by barring investors from buying the country’s debt in the secondary market, bringing trading activity almost to a halt on Tuesday as investors scrambled to understand the new restrictions. – Bloomberg 

Boasting a quarter of the planet’s gas reserves and more than 5 per cent of its crude oil, Russia’s economy has long been dominated by the energy sector. As the country’s isolation intensifies following the invasion of Ukraine, the question now is what next for its most important industry? – Financial Times 

After more than 100 days of Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine, Russian troops have now been caught trying to arrange sham marriages to get out of the war, while others say they haven’t even been sent water to survive as the temperatures rise. – The Daily Beast 

Two Russian warships are operating near the international BALTOPs naval exercise in the Baltic Sea, according to photos from ship spotters. A pair of Russian Navy Karakurt-class corvettes were spotted off the coast of Sweden near Stockholm one day after NATO and allied ships departed for the at-sea portion of the BALTOPS drills. – USNI News 

Josh Rogin writes: Western governments need to have a plan for people like Ovsyannikova. There must be space for Russians with imperfect records to oppose Putin and help further erode his internal support. It doesn’t matter how they got here. Now, everyone who is opposed to Putin and his war must set aside their grievances and join together to stop him. – Washington Post 

John Sawers writes: If another round of European diplomacy leaves Russia once again sitting on its military gains in Ukraine, then Putin will regain political strength at home and feel empowered to launch new military adventures in the future. The Ukrainians want to fight on and they need our continued support — advanced weapons and ever tougher sanctions on Russia. That means several more months of ugly fighting. But a premature ceasefire will help Putin snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. No western leader should be his enabler. – Financial Times 

Emiko Terazono writes: Even if there were to be some sort of compromise to shift food out of Ukraine both sides may not strike an agreement until the last minute. The danger is that it turns into a game of chicken, says Ilana Bet-el, political analyst and senior fellow at King’s College London. “At a certain point, with so [many countries] depending on grain out of Ukraine, [the west] will have to take the risk and [come to an agreement with Russia].” – Financial Times 

Daniel Fried, Steven Pifer and Alexander Vershbow write: The Founding Act was an opportunity to build a new Europe by establishing mechanisms for dialogue and cooperation between Russia and NATO. Unfortunately, it has failed. Suspension will leave open the possibility that it might be restored at a future point, when Russia renews its adherence to the principles of the rules-based international order. However, that may only come after Putin has left office and a new generation of Russian leaders demonstrates that Russia once again shares the goal of a stable, peaceful and undivided Europe. – The Hill 

Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Mason Clark, and George Barros write: Russian forces have likely established control over the majority of the residential sector of Severodonetsk and conducted assaults against Ukrainian positions in the industrial zone in the past 24 hours. The operational environment within the city remains fluid. Russian forces continued efforts to advance on Slovyansk southeast from the Izyum area and west from Lyman, attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses that have halted most direct frontal assaults from Izyum. – Institute for the Study of War 

Lee Edwards writes: In either translation, Putin laments the passing of the Soviet Union and its empire. As prime minister and president, Putin has moved again and again to build a new Russian empire, most recently in his invasion of Ukraine. We can deal effectively with Putin only if we accept how much he is in thrall to Marxism-Leninism and its core idea that political power grows only out of the barrel of a gun. – Heritage Foundation 

Afghanistan

Germany will not recognise the Taliban as the legitimate rulers of Afghanistan as long as “dire” conditions under the Islamists persist, Germany’s foreign minister said on Tuesday, calling for a united international call on the Taliban for change. – Reuters 

The Taliban reneged on their initial promise to allow young girls above the sixth grade to return to school. The abrupt reversal hasn’t stopped Afghan women from keeping up the fight for girls’ education. – Fox News 

Lynne O’Donnell writes: The region has been dug over and looted for millennia, and many experts believe that there could be little of value left to be found. Like the empty niches where the Buddhas once stood overlooking Bamiyan’s wheat fields, much of Afghanistan’s cultural heritage could soon be consigned to memory. – Foreign Policy 

Israel

Sens. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) and Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) sent a request to the State Department on Monday for a “full and transparent investigation” into the death of Shireen Abu Akleh, a Palestinian American journalist who was killed while reporting on an Israeli military raid in the West Bank last month. – Washington Post 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday that his country was seeking accountability over the killing of journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, and would follow the facts from a credible investigation wherever they lead. – Agence France-Presse 

Following weeks of violence in different parts of Israel and the West Bank, Israeli nationalists have targeted the red, green, black and white Palestinian colours in an escalating “flag war” that underscores a struggle over status and identity. – Reuters 

An independent commission of inquiry set up by the U.N. Human Rights Council after the 2021 Gaza war said Israel must do more than end the occupation of land Palestinians want for a state, according to a report released on Tuesday. – Reuters 

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has expressed his dissatisfaction with the series of steps the Biden administration is planning to introduce in order to boost ties with Ramallah, deeming the measures insufficient so long as the US consulate in Jerusalem remains shuttered, two US and Palestinian officials told The Times of Israel on Monday. – Times of Israel 

An Israeli military drone crashed in the northern Gaza Strip on Tuesday evening, the Israel Defense Forces said. According to the IDF, the reason for the crash was not known, and was still being investigated. – Times of Israel 

The US State Department responded on Tuesday to an initial report by the United Nations’ highly contentious Commission of Inquiry, which charged that Israel is largely to blame for its conflict with the Palestinians, saying that “the COI in its current form is a continuation of a longstanding pattern of unfairly singling out Israel” – Jerusalem Post 

Israeli security forces, including IDF, Shin Bet and Border Police, arrested 21 terrorism suspects in a number of areas in the West Bank overnight Tuesday, the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit announced Wednesday morning. – Jerusalem Post 

Israeli activists and IDF reservists launched a protest outside the United Nations office in Geneva on Tuesday at the beginning of its public and legal campaign against what they are claiming is an anti-Israel commission of inquiry by the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC). – Jerusalem Post 

Kyiv wants to purchase Israel’s Iron Dome air defenses system and for Jerusalem to sign off on the transfer of its Spike SR anti-tank guided missile system from Germany to Ukraine, the country’s ambassador, Yevgen Korniychuk, told reporters on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post 

Both the Israeli government and opposition are morally lost in their position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, former Mossad director Tamir Pardo said on Tuesday, at the Jewish People Policy Institute’s conference on morality in foreign affairs. – Jerusalem Post 

Oded Eran writes: Fifty years ago, Israel was a mere bystander to the events. Now it is a player, albeit a modest one, and is facing concrete consequences from a failure or success of China and the US to manage their competition. – Jerusalem Post 

Middle East & North Africa

Leading Democratic lawmakers in the House have signed a letter urging President Biden to take a more guarded approach to Saudi Arabia and to warn the kingdom against pursuing more strategic cooperation with China on ballistic missiles. – New York Times 

Federal prosecutors have obtained records indicating that John R. Allen, the retired four-star Marine general who commanded all American troops in Afghanistan and now heads a venerable Washington think tank, secretly lobbied for the government of Qatar, lied to investigators about his role and tried to withhold evidence sought by a federal subpoena, according to court documents. – New York Times 

The State Department and the Defense Department have failed to assess civilian casualties caused by a Saudi-led coalition in the catastrophic war in Yemen and the use of American-made weapons in the killings, according to an internal government report. – New York Times 

The air forces of Russia and Syria conducted a joint drill over the war-torn country Tuesday, the first since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began more than three months ago, Syria’s Defense Ministry said. – Associated Press 

The U.S.-backed and Kurdish-led forces in northern Syria said Tuesday that they will turn to the government in Damascus for support should Turkey go ahead with its threat to launch a new incursion into the war-torn country. – Associated Press 

A top American diplomat laid out the Biden administration’s vision for engagement with the Middle East in a speech on Tuesday and contested the widely held belief that Washington has sought to distance itself from the region in favor of engagement with Asia. – Jewish Insider 

China

Chinese citizens can get rewards of more than 100,000 yuan ($15,000) and special certificates for tip-offs on breaches of national security under measures introduced this week, state media reported on Tuesday. – Reuters 

Italy’s prime minister, Mario Draghi, has vetoed a transfer of technology and software to China in a deal involving industrial robot maker EFORT Intelligent Equipment (688165.SS), according to a Shanghai filing and a source close to the matter. – Reuters 

Old problems in China-Japan relations are intertwined with new ones, and the challenges cannot be ignored if the countries wish to have a “healthy” relationship, China’s top diplomat said on Tuesday. – Reuters 

Hong Kong’s largest national security case was sent to trial on Tuesday, after lingering 15 months in pre-trial procedures during which most of the 47 defendants were denied bail. – Agence France-Presse 

China is willing to strengthen its strategic cooperation with Kazakhstan, expand areas of collaboration and develop a new batch of projects for mutual benefit, foreign minister Wang Yi said during his visit to the central Asian country. – Bloomberg 

The US hit back at China over a social media post claiming American officials in Guangzhou downplayed allegations of human rights abuses, saying the behavior puts Washington’s envoys at risk. A spokesperson for the US Embassy in Beijing said Tuesday that China should “stop attributing false statements to US officials or taking other actions that might subject our diplomats to harassment.” – Bloomberg 

Several European lawmakers are pushing to designate alleged human rights abuses against Uygurs and other ethnic Muslims in Xinjiang by China as “genocide.” The resolution will be presented to the European Parliament this week. – Jerusalem Post 

Beijing is denying that People’s Liberation Army forces harassed Australian and Canadian patrol aircraft in the Western Pacific, claiming that in both cases the aircraft endangered China’s security. – USNI News 

Editorial: Some in Congress seem aware of this relative U.S. naval decline, but the U.S. Navy and Pentagon don’t seem alarmed. They should be. The Chinese military is advancing around the world, and the best guarantee of keeping the peace is a U.S. military and Navy that can reassure allies and deter the hawks in Beijing. – Wall Street Journal 

Mordechai Chaziza writes: Even so, as GCC countries become more entangled in China’s transnational digital infrastructure network and welcome the many benefits such digital integration affords, they must also confront the possibility that this could threaten their ties with the US while expanding and deepening the strategic rivalry between the two great powers. – Middle East Institute  

Asia

President Joe Biden’s special envoy for talks with three tiny but strategically important Pacific island nations will lead a delegation to the Marshall Islands next week amid growing U.S. worries about China’s efforts to expand its influence in the region. – Reuters 

Cambodia and Beijing have denied a report that they are building a secret naval facility for the Chinese fleet, as Australia’s new prime minister voiced concern about the project and called for transparency. – Agence France-Presse 

At the Nato summit in Madrid this month, one of the most important meetings could end up being between the leaders of the US and two crucial but fractious allies from East Asia: Japan and South Korea. – Financial Times 

Editorial: Myanmar’s troubled democratic experiment is in shambles and swallowed by civil war. […]This barbarism would mark the first use of the death penalty in Myanmar, also known as Burma, since 1988 and represents yet another step by the military to frighten the resistance and the civilian population into submission. – Washington Post 

Joseph Bosco writes: It remains to be seen whether the weapons the U.S. decides to send Taiwan will be the most advanced and whether their range and use will be as constrained as the arms going to Ukraine.  Such limitations shrink the costs and risks of aggression and reduce deterrence. – The Hill 

Africa

The world must “widen its gaze from the war in Ukraine” to prevent Somalia sliding into famine, the United Nations’ children’s agency said on Tuesday, warning only a third of the $250 million needed to stave off catastrophe had so far been raised. – Reuters 

The West African regional bloc ECOWAS said on Tuesday that it regretted a decision by Mali’s interim government to extend the transition back to civilian rule by 24 months while negotiations between the two sides were ongoing. – Reuters 

Cameroon’s government said on Tuesday that a group of soldiers killed nine villagers, including an 18-month-old girl, in a “manifestly disproportionate” and “hasty” response to a confrontation in the Northwest region last week. – Reuters 

Militiamen killed 12 people in a night raid on a village in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo near the shore of Lake Albert, a local human rights group said on Tuesday. The group and an army spokesman blamed the attack on CODECO, one of many militias operating in Congo’s conflict-ridden east. – Reuters 

Gunmen with explosives killed at least 38 persons including five children in an attack on a Catholic church in southwestern Nigeria, the Ondo State Catholic Diocese has told The Associated Press. – Associated Press 

Belgium’s King Philippe landed in the Democratic Republic of Congo on Tuesday, in a historic visit to the central African country his ancestor once ruled brutally as his personal fief. – Agence France-Presse 

David Curry writes: In theory, that’s just the first step. A designation requires the president, with some exceptions, to enact sanctions. Yet in the 24 years since the International Religious Freedom Act was passed, no president has enacted any meaningful sanctions against a CPC country expressly because of religious-freedom violations. Mr. Biden has the opportunity to send a clear signal that the U.S. won’t stand by as the innocent faithful are persecuted. He should make the redesignation and enforce sanctions without delay. – Wall Street Journal 

Cybersecurity

The Ruling Class has used Jan. 6 to wage a jihad against its political opposition, including an assault on our most basic rights such as free speech. Big Tech has reinforced the narrative that views antithetical to regime orthodoxy are dangerous and must be policed accordingly. – New York Post 

U.S. agencies on Tuesday offered new details about how Chinese state-sponsored hackers have used publicly known vulnerabilities to target internet service providers and major telecommunications firms around the globe over the last two years. – The Record 

The FBI on Tuesday seized an illicit marketplace that has made millions selling the personal data of roughly 24 million U.S. citizens, according to the Justice Department. – CyberScoop 

There are not many things that Andrew Crocker, who has long fought against the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act (CFAA) as an attorney at the digital rights nonprofit Electronic Frontier Foundation, and Aaron Cooper, a former Department of Justice (DOJ) cybercrimes lawyer who prosecuted CFAA cases, would agree on. – CyberScoop 

Editorial: Perhaps most vexing but most essential is the challenge of reaching criminals who operate from ransomware havens. President Biden’s attempts to persuade Vladimir Putin to crack down on gangs operating with impunity on the Russian president’s turf seemed to be yielding results, but the invasion of Ukraine has likely preempted any further collaboration. Diplomatic overtures could still help elsewhere — especially in countries that would take a firmer hand with malicious actors if they could but lack the resources and know-how. Providing them with both should be a U.S. national security priority. – Washington Post 

David Ignatius writes: The internet confrontation is a microcosm of Russia’s larger standoff with the West. Russia yearns for recognition as a great power and global standard setter. But as the war in Ukraine grinds on, Putin has become ever more prickly, isolated and angry at his foes. He is severing Russia’s connections to the world, even as he seeks to dominate cyberspace. His computer is crashing, and he doesn’t seem to know how to reboot. – Washington Post 

Long War

A 42-year-old woman from Kansas pleaded guilty Tuesday to working with Islamic State to run a female battalion and training more than 100 girls in how to use AK-47s, grenades and other weapons, in one of the first cases to detail an American woman’s extensive operational role in the terrorist group. – Wall Street Journal  

Extremists and conspiracy theorists are praising the deadly May 24 mass shooting at a Texas elementary school that left 21 people dead — and are encouraging others to shoot up schools in similar attacks — the Department of Homeland Security warned on Tuesday. – Business Insider  

On June 4, 2022, the Islamic State (ISIS) Mozambique Province released a series of photographs which document the aftermath of a series of attacks perpetrated by its operatives in late May 2022 against what it describes as “villages of the unbeliever Christians” in Cabo Delgado Province in northeastern Mozambique. […] However, according to previous ISIS reports, it appears that the attacks referred to are those which were carried out against six Christian villages between May 23 and May 31, 2022, in which, according to ISIS, eight people were killed, among them at least four Christian civilians. – Middle East Media Research Institute