Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

Russia has defaulted on its foreign currency debt for the first time in more than a century, as tough Western sanctions designed to punish Moscow for invading Ukraine restrict its ability to pay overseas creditors. – Washington Post

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged President Biden and other leaders gathered here Monday to urgently provide Ukraine with heavy weaponry, a move he said would help drive Russia out of his country by winter. – Washington Post

Global exports to Russia fell sharply after the Ukraine invasion, not only from Western countries that enacted sanctions but also from non-sanctioning countries including China, a new analysis shows. – Washington Post

President Biden and other NATO heads of state and government will gather in Madrid on Tuesday for a three-day summit focused on urgent support for Ukraine as well as the alliance’s longer-term strategy. – Washington Post

A Russian missile strike on a shopping mall in central Ukraine killed at least 15 civilians and left scores injured, Ukrainian officials said Monday, adding urgency to the appeals from Kyiv for Western nations to send more advanced weapons. – Washington Post

In the arched dining hall of a former boarding school in Lviv, Kamila Horbachova and other teenage girls set out dishes, as younger children scrambled into seats and then tucked into dinners handed out by the cafeteria staff. – New York Times

The all-too-familiar blare of an air raid siren signaled rockets within striking distance of this city in western Ukraine on Monday afternoon. It was the fifth time in less than 48 hours. – New York Times

Four months into Russia’s invasion, unprecedented Western economic retaliation and military aid to Ukraine have not curbed Vladimir V. Putin’s ability or apparent determination to wage war, leaving leaders of the world’s wealthiest democracies grasping for new ways to deter him. – New York Times

Leaders of the Group of 7 nations are close to an agreement in principle to begin the process of potentially imposing price caps on Russian oil and are set to impose other new economic penalties on Moscow to support Ukraine, Biden administration officials said on Monday. – New York Times

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appealed to Group of Seven leaders for more support from allies to push Russia out of newly conquered territories, according to officials present for the video address, as the U.S. said it would provide more military aid for Ukraine and impose new sanctions against Moscow to try to turn the tide of the war ahead of the winter months. – Wall Street Journal

The father of a Moroccan man facing execution after being captured by Russia-backed separatists in Ukraine appealed Monday to Russian President Vladimir Putin to intervene, “as a father,” to spare his son from the firing squad. – Associated Press

A display of war-damaged Russian weapons in downtown Warsaw serves as a reminder of the horrors of the war in Ukraine but also that Russia’s aggression can be defeated, officials said Monday. – Associated Press

Less than two weeks remain for two Britons and a Moroccan to appeal the death sentences imposed by separatist forces that captured them during fighting in eastern Ukraine. – Associated Press

Russia sanctioned 43 Canadian citizens on Monday, barring them from entering the country in a tit-for-tat response to Western sanctions on Moscow. – Reuters

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said at a summit of the Group of Seven rich democracies on Monday there would be no return to the times before Russia’s attack on Ukraine, which had ushered in long-term changes in international relations. – Reuters

Any encroachment on the Crimea peninsula by a NATO member-state could amount to a declaration of war on Russia which could lead to “World War Three,” Russia’s former president, Dmitry Medvedev, was quoted as saying on Monday. – Reuters

Poland is to send a protest note to Russia after it removed a Polish flag at the Katyn cemetery, which commemorates Polish military officers killed by Soviet forces in 1940, the government said on Monday. – Reuters

U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday raised the tariff rate on certain Russian imports to 35% as a result of suspending Russia’s “most favored nation” trading status over its war in Ukraine, according to a proclamation issued by the White House. – Reuters

Moldova’s president said during a visit to Ukraine on Monday that her country was “fragile and vulnerable” and needed help to remain “part of the free world”. – Reuters

A former South Korean Navy SEAL turned YouTuber who risked jail time to leave Seoul and fight for Ukraine says it would have been a “crime” not to use his skills to help. – Agence France-Presse

Five emerging powers have become the object of the G7 industrialised powers’ charm offensive, as the club of rich nations seeks broader support in their backing for Kyiv. – Agence France-Presse

Ukraine’s retreat from Severodonetsk after weeks of fighting against Russian forces in the eastern city was a “tactical” move to avoid a repeat of the fateful Azovstal siege in Mariupol, according to the country’s military intelligence chief. – Financial Times

After a stopover in Hawaii, the $325 million superyacht that’s tied to Russian billionaire Suleiman Kerimov and that was seized by US authorities in Fiji has sailed into a port in Southern California. – Bloomberg

A restriction on railway shipments from mainland Russia across Lithuania has put a harsh spotlight on a dangerous boundary between NATO and Russia. – Washington Examiner

The United States is planning to include an advanced air defense system in its next set of military aid for Ukraine, a senior Biden administration official said at the Group of Seven summit. – Washington Examiner

Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader and key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, is forming four new military battalions “with an impressive number of personnel” to help replenish Russia’s troops during the ongoing war with Ukraine. – Newsweek

A Russian state television host warned that the country is ready to confront NATO as tensions between Moscow and the West continue to escalate over the war in Ukraine. – Newsweek

Russia’s military will be relying more on its reserve forces as the war in Ukraine amid slow military progress in the east and the war drags on into its fifth month, according to U.K. intelligence. – Newsweek

An unconfirmed photo of a retired Russian general in Vladimir Putin’s army has sparked speculation amid reports that Moscow is deploying retired personnel in the war against Ukraine because of combat losses. – Newsweek

Editorial: Russia has signed the Geneva Conventions, which prohibit attacks that deliberately target civilians and civilian facilities. Mr. Putin doesn’t care, and he thinks he’ll get away with it if he can defeat Ukraine or force it to submit to his peace terms. There will be more of this in more countries if Russia prevails in Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal

Paul Roderick Gregory writes: Why doesn’t the Kremlin shut down Ms. Zubarevich? There are two explanations: First, she is careful to cite only official Russian administrative statistics. It isn’t she who is sounding the alarm, it is the Russian government itself. Second, the Kremlin can’t shut down the means of transport of her message (YouTube) because that would signal that something is very wrong and must be hidden. – Wall Street Journal

Andreas Kluth writes: The West’s leaders, once they’re done jetting between summits and posing for pictures with one another, have a job to do. They must get the rest of the world out of this no-man’s-land. So they should offer generous support — in dollars, euros and other forms — to countries that pledge help in defending global democracy against the autocrats in Moscow and Beijing.[…]Today, Putin is the elephant, Ukraine the mouse. And no-man’s-land is no place to be. – Bloomberg

Kristina Hook writes: Putin shouldn’t get away with his crimes — or be able to replicate Stalin’s. Western democracies need to step up now to fully support Ukraine’s independence, end Putin’s blockade and prevent a modern Holodomor on an international scale. – The Hill

Harlan Ullman writes: Fortunately, Putin’s advantages are not necessarily as strong or as valid as he believes. Yet, unless the West understands why Putin believes time is on his side and acts to reverse that perception, it is hard to be optimistic about the chances for a viable counter strategy. And, given current flash points, memories of June 28 and the assassination of Arch Duke Franz Ferdinand and his wife in 1914 in Sarajevo loom. – The Hill

Gideon Rachman writes: In the short term, however, the global energy crunch caused by the war in Ukraine is increasing demand for non-Russian fossil fuels — including coal, the dirtiest of the lot. Germany is reopening mothballed coal plants. And China is clinging even tighter to its most reliable form of domestic energy production — coal. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is bad news for the world. It may be even worse news for the planet. – Financial Times

Dave Anderson writes: The time is right for President Biden to meet privately with President Zelensky and explain that we can’t keep giving tens of billions of dollars of military support and have no say in a war that affects our own interests in many critical ways. Major NATO allies who are supporting Kyiv should also have a say, and indeed three met recently with Zelensky to share their point of view. – Jerusalem Post

SaraJane Rzegocki and Alvina Ahmed write: Most immediately, the EU and NATO must send a clear message to Russia that the West will continue to defend European security, aid the Ukrainian people, and make Putin a pariah until he stops this senseless war. But behind the scenes, the Transatlantic community must decide its future shape. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Mark F. Cancian writes: The recently announced 13th aid package to Ukraine ($450 million in total) continues to strengthen Ukrainian artillery since artillery has become the dominant combat arm in the recent fighting and provides 18 coastal and riverine patrol boats to start rebuilding the devastated Ukrainian navy. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Turkey

A NATO summit this week is unlikely to see a breakthrough to overcome Turkey’s opposition to Sweden and Finland’s membership bids as Ankara takes an unrushed approach to negotiations, according to Turkish officials and Western diplomats. – Reuters

Turkish defence firm Baykar said on Monday it would donate three unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to Ukraine, after a crowdfunding campaign there raised enough funds to buy “several” of the Bayraktar TB2 model. – Reuters

Asil Aydintasbas writes: A master of geopolitical balancing, Erdogan has already demonstrated Turkey’s displeasure at support for Syrian Kurds. He should now use a green light as leverage for better relations with transatlantic allies, including the United States. – Washington Post

Neville Teller writes: Inevitably, there has been speculation that Finland might disengage from its joint application with Sweden to join NATO. Finland’s president, Sauli Niinisto, and its prime minister, Sanna Marin, hastened to quash it. Both have said that Finland would continue its application in lockstep with Sweden. As long as Erdogan remains adamant in his demands, Putin‘s worst fears regarding NATO’s expansion to his very doorstep will remain unrealized. – Jerusalem Post

Nimrod Goren writes: Climate change is already reshaping the international system, creating common interests and fostering cooperation between countries that used to be at odds. Israel-Turkey relations stand to benefit from this trend. Tackling climate change can become a central pillar in the new chapter in relations, bringing benefits not only to the citizens of both countries, but potentially also to the region as a whole. – Jerusalem Post

Magnus Norell writes: Since domestic pressure is rising on President Erdogan due to the election in Turkey next year, it’s probably in his interest to have any conflicts with other NATO-members resolved before those elections take place. Not objecting to a Swedish membership in NATO could help Erdogan smooth relations with NATO especially when relations are already fraught because of Turkish ties with Moscow amid the war in the Ukraine. – Washington Institute

Iraq

Top U.S. energy company Schlumberger (SLB.N) has said it will not apply without Baghdad’s consent for any tenders in the oil and gas sector of Iraq’s Kurdistan region, according to a letter sent to the Iraqi oil minister and seen by Reuters. – Reuters

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The agenda is to threaten Erbil’s economy and security. The US puts out statements but does little to stop the attacks. The US has also reportedly ignored some 29 other attacks since last October that have targeted US troops and other facilities across Syria and Iraq. – Jerusalem Post

Michael Knights writes: A targeted intervention by the United States and its partners, the author argues, could guide the dispute toward a long-overdue resolution that greatly aids U.S. interests and the global effort to find a substitute for Russian and Iranian oil and gas. – Washington Institute

Saudi Arabia

Against the backdrop of sweeping change in Israel-Arab relations, a group of 13 American Jewish leaders toured Saudi Arabia last week to learn about Islam and teach the Saudis about Judaism, the first trip of its kind for federation leaders and clergy to the Arab kingdom. – Jewish Insider

The United States has hinted that more Arab nations could take steps to improve ties with Israel, ahead of President Joe Biden’s trip to the Middle East. All eyes are on Saudi Arabia, which Biden will visit in mid-July, after he once vowed to treat the kingdom as a “pariah” state over the 2018 murder and dismemberment of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. – Times of Israel

James M. Dorsey writes: Saudi Arabia has signaled for some time that it would like to formalize its expanding informal relations with Israel, but needs a cover to do so. Future weeks will see how relations continue to unfold. – Algemeiner

Abdullah F. Alrebh writes: This paper aims to investigate the Iranian influence within the Shi’a community in Saudi Arabia by focusing on the followers of the supreme leader’s marj’aiyyah, known as “Khat al-Imam,” and its military wing, “Hezbollah Al-Hejaz,” also known as “Saudi Hezbollah,” often held responsible for carrying out the 1996 attack. – Middle East Institute

Middle East & North Africa

Tunisia’s former prime minister and senior official of the Islamist-inspired Ennahdha party, Hamadi Jebali, was released on Monday, four days after he was arrested, one of his lawyers said. – Agence France-Presse

The African Union Commission chief has voiced his shock at the “violent and degrading” treatment of African migrants trying to cross from Morocco into Spain after 23 people died, and called for an investigation into the incident. – Agence France-Presse

Spain’s prime minister is defending the way Moroccan and Spanish police repelled migrants last week as they tried to cross the shared border into the north African enclave of Melilla, depicting the attempt in which at least 23 people died as “an attack on Spain’s borders.” – Associated Press

The U.N. political chief urged Libya’s rival factions on Monday to agree on measures governing the transition to elections during talks in Geneva later this week, expressing hope this will lead to long-awaited voting “at the earliest possible date.” – Associated Press

The United States, Israel and four Arab countries agreed to closer cooperation and annual foreign ministers’ meetings on Monday, two weeks before President Joe Biden’s first visit to the Middle East. – Agence France-Presse

A crane loading chlorine tanks onto a ship in Jordan’s port of Aqaba on Monday dropped one of them, causing an explosion of toxic yellow smoke that killed at least 13 people and sickened some 250, authorities said. – Associated Press

Editorial: When Shimon Peres outlined his vision for the new Middle East in 1995, he was considered an unrealistic optimist. But two years after the Abraham Accords ushered in a new era in the region, Peres’s vision appears to be materializing. The meeting in Manama is just the latest example. – Jerusalem Post

Benny Avni writes: A gelling Mideast alliance could become President Biden’s crowning foreign policy success – unless he undermines it by re-entering a nuclear deal that would fill Tehran’s dwindling coffers. – New York Sun

Herb Keinon writes: And that is not an insignificant message. When then-prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu was fighting then-US president Barack Obama against the Iranian nuclear deal in the middle of the last decade, he was doing it alone, albeit with much of the Arab world in the background rooting silently for his success. Now, however, that Arab support is neither silent nor in the background but rather out there, and, via meetings such as the one held Monday in Bahrain, apparent for all to see. – Jerusalem Post

China

Hong Kong has weathered financial crises, mass demonstrations and COVID-19. As the city prepares to mark the 25th anniversary of its handover to Chinese rule, Reuters spoke to five people who described the highs and lows since 1997. – Reuters

Every few generations, Hong Kong transforms itself, evolving from a swampy fishing village to 19th century colonial port, to capitalist outpost and factory after China’s 1949 revolution, to 21st century financial center. – Associated Press

The Biden administration is stepping up efforts to combat illegal fishing by China, ordering federal agencies to better coordinate among themselves as well as with foreign partners in a bid to promote sustainable exploitation of the world’s oceans. – Associated Press

Chinese President Xi Jinping kept Hong Kong guessing on Monday about his possible appearance at the 25th anniversary of the former British colony’s return to Chinese rule. – Associated Press

Nato will warn that China is a challenge to its members’ security in its new 10-year doctrine to be agreed this week, as the western alliance seeks to juggle emerging global threats with war on its eastern border. – Financial Times

Marti Flacks and Madeleine Songy write: G7 members have committed to take action to prevent forced labor in global supply chains, but stopped short of committing to parallel import bans; the upcoming G7 Summit provides an opportunity to take these discussions further. […]Both Mexico and Canada are bound under the USMCA to adopt laws prohibiting goods made with forced labor from entering their markets. Broader outreach, including within central Asia, would make such collective prohibitions even more impactful. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Asia

Abroad, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern of New Zealand remains a leading liberal light. During a recent trip to the United States, she delivered the commencement address at Harvard, cracked jokes with Stephen Colbert and met in the Oval Office with President Biden. At each stop, she highlighted her successes in passing gun restrictions and handling the pandemic. – New York Times

A Taiwan-based company said it plans to build a $5 billion factory in Texas to make silicon wafers used in semiconductors, but the deal hinges on financial incentives bogged down in Congress. – Wall Street Journal

Senior US and Taiwanese officials held inaugural talks about developing an “ambitious roadmap for negotiations” to deepen economic and trade ties, a move likely to exacerbate tensions between Washington and Beijing. – Bloomberg

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has warned the Chinese government to learn the lessons of Russia’s “strategic failure” in Ukraine, as he heads to Europe for a meeting of NATO leaders. – Bloomberg

Rodrigo Duterte, who steps down as Philippine president Thursday, has earned international infamy for his deadly drug war and foul-mouthed tirades but remains hugely popular among Filipinos fed up with the country’s dysfunction and political elite. – Agence France-Presse

Ferdinand Marcos Jr has reached the end of a decades-long campaign to rehabilitate the family brand: the presidency. – Agence France-Presse

Myanmar’s Supreme Court heard final arguments on Monday in a long-running, bitter dispute between the country’s ousted leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, and her estranged elder brother over the property where she was held under house arrest for 15 years. – Associated Press

Australia will set up a defence school to train Pacific island militaries, Canberra’s new Pacific minister said, amid mounting competition for security ties in the region and as China lays plans for a rival meeting to next month’s Pacific Islands Forum. – Reuters

The foreign minister of Tuvalu pulled out of the United Nations Ocean Conference opening in Portugal on Monday after China blocked the participation of three Taiwanese included in the tiny Pacific island nation’s delegation list, according to Radio New Zealand. – Reuters

A U.S. Navy aircraft’s flight through the Taiwan Strait last week demonstrated a U.S. commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific, the U.S. military said on Tuesday, after China complained it endangered peace and stability. – Reuters

Dorothy Wickham writes: Washington and Canberra are now saying that we in the Pacific matter to them. They will need to back that up with sustained action. Their wartime sacrifices saved us long ago. But loyalty does not last forever. It must be earned. Small, fragile, but strategic countries like mine have no choice but to chart our own course, with whatever friends we can find. – New York Times

Africa

Ethiopia killed seven Sudanese soldiers and a civilian in a border area in the latest sign of deteriorating ties between the east African nations. – Associated Press

German officials said Monday that numerous priceless artifacts taken from African nations during colonial times will be permanently returned. – Associated Press

Spain is shifting its foreign policy towards Africa while lobbying the EU and NATO for support to address migration from the continent, aggravated by the Ukraine invasion, two senior government officials and two diplomatic sources told Reuters. – Reuters

About 30 villagers were killed in weekend attacks in the Akwaya district of Cameroon’s South West region in what local sources described as a feud over land between neighbouring communities aggravated by separatist insurgents acting as hired guns. – Reuters

Latin America

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Brazilian counterpart, Jair Bolsonaro, discussed global food security and confirmed their intention to strengthen their strategic partnership, the Kremlin said on Monday. – Reuters

Senior U.S. government officials have quietly traveled to Caracas in the latest bid to bring home detained Americans and rebuild relations with the South American oil giant as the war in Ukraine drags on, forcing the U.S. to recalibrate other foreign policy objectives. – Associated Press

Ryan C. Berg and Alexandra Winkler write: Unfortunately, with the new diplomatic outlet provided by Petro’s recognition of Maduro and the region’s generally leftist tide, the Maduro regime already has a best alternative to a negotiated agreement: to continue its criminal activity and strengthen Chavismo’s sphere of influence across the region. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Benjamin R. Young writes: With its focus on Putin’s war in Ukraine, the Biden administration has underemphasized Latin American affairs, which was on display during the recent Summit of the Americas. In a sign of solidarity with Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, who were excluded from the meeting, Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador declined an offer to come to the summit. […]If the United States hopes to prevent growing Chinese and Russian cyber influence in the Western hemisphere, Washington must build long-term economic and cyber links with its partners in Latin America and the Caribbean. – The National Interest

Defense

NATO will sharply increase the number of forces it keeps at a high readiness level to 300,000 in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. – Washington Post

NASA has spotted the crash site of a mystery rocket that slammed into the far side of the moon in March, leaving behind a double crater. – Business Insider

Every branch of the U.S. military is struggling to meet its fiscal year 2022 recruiting goals, say multiple U.S. military and defense officials, and numbers obtained by NBC News show both a record low percentage of young Americans eligible to serve and an even tinier fraction willing to consider it. – NBC News

Two months into his new job as the Air Force’s acquisition chief, Andrew Hunter has no shortage of challenges on his plate. The COVID-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine have stretched vital supply chains to their breaking point. The Air Force is arguing with a key contractor over a program that continues to be delayed. And the service is facing tight timelines as it works to develop and field new capabilities in time for a potential major war. – Defense News

Lockheed Martin’s Sikorsky unit won its 10th five-year contract worth $2.3 billion for 120 H-60 Mike-model Black Hawk utility helicopters with options for an additional 135 aircraft for both the Army and other customers through Foreign Military Sales, the Pentagon said. – Defense News

Both teams competing to develop the Missile Defense Agency’s Next-Generation Interceptor are planting deeper roots in Huntsville, Alabama, as part of an effort to try to speed NGI’s fielding as intercontinental ballistic missile threats from North Korea and Iran grow. – Defense News

This month, as Congress starts crafting the fiscal 2023 Defense Department budget, policymakers must decide how to deal with inflation’s erosion of the Pentagon’s purchasing power. A growing number of legislators have called for increasing the budget above the Biden administration’s $773 billion request to compensate for high inflation, among other rationales. Many policymakers have shied away from proposing dollar amounts, instead endorsing specific levels of real growth — the year-to-year percentage change in spending after accounting for inflation, such that 0% means spending grows at the forecast inflation rate. – Defense News

The Senate confirmed a new leader for the U.S. Air Force’s information warfare branch, the latest move in a shuffling of cybersecurity leadership in the military. – C4ISRNET

USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) will participate in the biennial Rim of the Pacific exercise this summer near Hawaii, USNI News understands. – USNI News

The Navy welcomed the 21st Virginia-class submarine into the fleet over the weekend, the service announced Monday. – USNI News

Adm. Stuart Munsch assumed command of U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa on Monday, the Navy announced. – USNI News

Editorial: The alliance could have presented a more compelling image of solidarity, however, were Turkey not still blocking membership for Finland and Sweden over their links to Kurdish separatists. Appearances matter. The north Atlantic alliance is, belatedly, adopting a strategic concept that recognises Russia as the “most significant and direct threat” to its security. But, as in the Cold War, Nato allies must be ready once more to put serious effort and expense into preparing for something it hopes will never happen — with the aim of making sure that it never does. – Financial Times

Lt. Gen. David W. Barno and Nora Bensahel write: To take advantage of this opportunity, Army leaders need to go beyond the broad lessons that Wormuth discussed last month. They need to rigorously reexamine the ways in which the service trains, organizes, and equips its soldiers, and must be willing to change the Army’s trajectory wherever necessary. They cannot afford to miss the lessons of this terrible modern war, so that the Army is as prepared as possible for the challenges that it will face in the future. – War on the Rocks