Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Iran and China have quietly drafted a sweeping economic and security partnership that would clear the way for billions of dollars of Chinese investments in energy and other sectors, undercutting the Trump administration’s efforts to isolate the Iranian government because of its nuclear and military ambitions. – New York Times

Iranian investigators blamed the downing of a Ukrainian passenger jet over Tehran earlier this year on the misalignment of an air defense unit’s radar system, in a report issued late Saturday. – Washington Post

Iran said on Saturday that it cannot afford to shut down its sanctions-hit economy, even as the Middle East’s deadliest coronavirus outbreak worsens with record-high death tolls and rising infections. – Agence France-Presse

Iran is determined to develop its oil industry in spite of U.S. sanctions imposed on the country, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said in a televised speech on Saturday. – Reuters

A series of mysterious blasts at sites across Iran in recent weeks have led to speculation that the U.S. and Israel may have launched a covert sabotage campaign against Tehran’s nuclear program. – Jewish Insider

The managing director of the Kish Free Zone Organization, which manages part of an island that offers free trade opportunities in southern Iran, rejected claims that the islands status would be up for sale to China as part of an Iran-China deal. The comments made on Saturday to Iran’s Fars News seek to reduce concerns across Iran that a secret deal with China is in the works among officials within President Hassan Rouhani’s administration. – Jerusalem Post

An explosion was heard in Tehran, shaking buildings in Iran’s capital on Saturday night, according to international media. – Jerusalem Post

Following the US assassination of Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, Washington had begged Tehran not to carry out any retaliation against US interests, Iran’s deputy foreign minister said Sunday, according to Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency. – Jerusalem Post

David E. Sanger, Eric Schmitt and Ronen Bergman write: As Iran’s center for advanced nuclear centrifuges lies in charred ruins after an explosion, apparently engineered by Israel, the long-simmering conflict between the United States and Tehran appears to be escalating into a potentially dangerous phase likely to play out during the American presidential election campaign. – New York Times

Eli Lake writes: At the very least, the fact that someone was able to explode a “crown jewel” of Iran’s nuclear program should make clear that the civilized world can delay Iran’s nuclear ambitions without conferring legitimacy to the regime. – Bloomberg

Michael Rubin writes: The real problem to the United States is not that China will start supporting Iran at the United Nations—after all, whether it votes yes or no, China often does as it pleases anyway. Rather, it is that if Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani lock in China to a long-term Iran deal before Khamenei dies, a death which may unleash both a succession struggle, massive anti-regime protests, and even a turn among many Iranians to the West, a more aggressive Beijing may simultaneously try to enforce its holdings militarily or undermine a post-Khamenei Iran’s recovery via debt traps. – The National Interest

Hillel Frisch writes: Yet even at this point, Soleimani’s death might be instructive. His assassination was a remarkable display of US military and technological capabilities at beheading its enemy. Is Soleimani’s demise and fast-fading memory the first sign of a war that presumably led to the end of the Soviet Empire? – Jerusalem Post

Yonah Jeremy Bob writes: The questions remaining then, are how long these attacks can continue and whether Iran can cope with them or try to make some sort of secret contact to cut a deal to get them stopped. If it does not, the message from whoever is making this happen is clear: Continued aggressive actions on nuclear and other fronts will lead to consequences that the ayatollahs had never imagined. – Jerusalem Post

Turkey

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Friday that the city’s sixth-century Hagia Sophia, which became a symbol of secularism in modern Turkey when it was converted into a museum in the 1930s, would reopen to Muslim prayer as a full-fledged mosque later this month, a shift opposed by the U.S. and others. – Wall Street Journal

But by deciding on Friday to transform back into a full-fledged mosque a building that has been a museum since the 1930s and has become a powerful symbol of ecumenical relations, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent a triple tremor, historians say. – Wall Street Journal

Palestinian resistance group Hamas has welcomed the Turkish court verdict directing the opening of Hagia Sophia as a mosque. “Opening of Hagia Sophia to prayer is a proud moment for all Muslims,” said Rafat Murra, head of international press office of Hamas, in a written statement. – Anadolu Agency

Soner Cagaptay writes: For officials in Washington and other allied governments considering how best to sway Erdogan from this damaging course, such conversations are likely best conducted in private given the issue’s domestic sensitivities. But if the Trump administration does decide to comment publicly, its statement should highlight Turkey’s long, proud history of religious tolerance—and encourage Ankara to shy away from further steps that undermine this tradition. – Washington Institute

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Turkey is seeking to supplant Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region, such as Egypt and Jordan, as the main determiner of what is “Islamic.” This means Ankara’s leadership believes that its changes to Hagia Sophia are only one step of a larger religious militarist agenda in the Middle East[…]. In June, Turkey launched airstrikes in Iraq against Kurdish groups, claiming to be fighting “terrorism.” One day, Turkey could even aim its sights at Jerusalem. The speech about Hagia Sophia clearly indicated this is on the agenda in the future. – Jerusalem Post

Seth J. Frantzman writes: These are some of the largest naval tensions in the region in decades. At stake is Turkey’s newfound decision to have an aggressive military policy that has brought together Greece, Egypt, the UAE, France and others in opposition to Turkey’s moves. Egypt’s naval drill is emblematic of how Turkey’s increased posturing will result in other countries seeking to show off and increase their naval power. – Jerusalem Post

Anthony Avice Du Buisson writes: There will be no peace in Kurdistan until Turkey withdraws. There will be no peace for victims until Turkey is held accountable for its criminal actions now and in the past. And as long as these atrocities are left without a response by international state actors and multilateral organizations such as the United Nations and NATO, Turkey will continue to commit crimes against Kurds, including Kurdish civilians. […]I learned from a young age that remaining silent to injustice does nothing but embolden tyranny. Where there is something wrong or unjust, brutal or barbaric, there is a moral imperative to act. – Jerusalem Post

Louis Fishman writes: Turkey’s opposition is focused on replacing him, even as Erdogan’s authoritarian hold over the country seems tighter than ever, and they have the patience and strategy not to be unnecessarily distracted. That commitment to what once seemed like an impossible goal is a subversive analogy to Erdogan’s long-held and once fantastical dream of “converting” Hagia Sophia. Perhaps Erdogan has actually just shown Turkey’s opposition the way. – Haaretz

Iraq

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhemi launched a new campaign on Saturday against corruption at the country’s borders, saying millions of dollars were being lost by not properly taxing imported goods. Speaking at the Mandili crossing on the border with Iran, Kadhemi said Iraq’s frontier had become “a hotbed for corrupt people”. – Agence France-Presse

He is among tens of thousands of Iraqis who have filed claims to the Nineveh province’s Subcommittee for Compensation, seeking reparations for material goods, injuries and even lives lost in the months-long fight to retake Mosul from the Islamic State group. – Agence France-Presse

Kataib Hezbollah, the Iranian allied group, has vowed to force the US to leave Iraq. It is the last threatening statement in a year of tensions between pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and US forces. US forces are in Iraq as part of the anti-ISIS Coalition. But rocket attacks by Kataib Hezbollah have resulted in three rounds of US airstrikes against the groups and its leaders since December 2019. – Jerusalem Post

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The attack underpins the uncertainty in Iraq and the increasing pressure on the US to leave the country. Diwaniyah is on a road that leads from southern Iraq toward Baghdad. […]What is important is not necessarily whether it happened or who was in the vehicles but rather the attempt to create an atmosphere of attacks, pushed by pro-Iranian media, to pave the way for larger real attacks, such as the dozens of rockets fired at US bases in Iraq over the last year. The creation of new groups that claim to target the US is also part of this pattern – whether these groups really exist or are just a rebranding of existing cells from Kataib Hezbollah or other groups. – Jerusalem Post

Patricia Karam writes: As Iraq resumes negotiations with the United States over the fate of the strategic relationship, hopes have been raised that the reformist Prime Minister Mustafa Kadhimi may finally be able to address the debilitating problems that have stymied the transition of the beleaguered country to democracy. […]For the first time in years, one can cautiously praise the recent measures taken by the government of Iraq to address the many ills that still plague this perennially troubled country. However, there is lots to do and a ways to go before it can come close to winning the war on corruption. – The Hill

Brandon Wallace and Katherine Lawlor write: Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH), a key Iranian proxy militia and US-designated terrorist group, is retaliating against Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi for launching a coordinated campaign to retake segments of the Iraqi state from entrenched political and militia corruption. KH, more than any other militia, is sending a series of violent messages to Kadhimi to force him to abandon his campaign. – Institute for the Study of War

Maya Carlin writes: Kadhimi’s actions so far do indicate that he is committed to some degree to pushing out Iranian influence. However, in order to truly stabilize his country, the prime minister must rein in these rogue militias and consolidate Iraq’s security forces. – Jerusalem Post

S. Ali writes: Al-Hashimi’s killing highlights also the fear of Iran-backed factions that Al-Kadhimi’s plan to curb their power and deprive them of financial resources might succeed[…]. The assassination of Al-Hashimi puts more pressure on Al-Kadhimi, who publicly promised to take serious action to bring to justice the assassins and those behind the assassinations of many protesters. The Iraqi prime minister now has two options: either to turn a blind eye like former prime ministers did and as AAH leader Qais Al-Khazali advised in his televised June 26 speech. Alternatively, he could confront Iran-backed militias despite all the risks involved. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Arabian Peninsula

Yemen’s Saudi-Led coalition said on Monday it intercepted and destroyed four missiles and six explosive drones launched overnight by Houthi forces towards the kingdom. – Reuters

Yemen’s Houthi movement has agreed to provide the United Nations access to a stranded oil tanker that risks causing an environmental disaster off the coast of the war-divided country, two U.N. sources familiar with the matter said. – Reuters

The United Nations said Friday it is encouraged that a U.N. team may be able to visit an oil tanker loaded with 1.1 million barrels of crude oil that is moored off the coast of Yemen, posing a serious risk to Red Sea marine life, desalination plants and shipping. – Associated Press

China

As tensions between the two sides mount, the Chinese government announced on Monday that it would impose sanctions on three American lawmakers and a diplomat in retaliation for similar moves last week by the Trump administration against four  officials in China. – New York Times

A Chinese legal scholar known for his outspoken criticism of China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has been released from police detention, days after he was first taken into custody, the professor’s friends said Sunday. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump damped expectations for a promised phase-two trade pact with China on Friday, saying the relationship between the countries has been too badly damaged by the coronavirus pandemic. – Wall Street Journal

A violent confrontation between the United States and China could take place within months, according to an American lawmaker wary of Beijing’s expansionist foreign policy. – Washington Examiner

China said Friday it will retaliate against U.S. officials and institutions following Washington’s imposition of sanctions on three local officials of the ruling Communist Party over human rights abuses in the northwestern region of Xinjiang. – Associated Press

The U.S. State Department warned American citizens on Saturday to “exercise increased caution” in China due to heightened risk of arbitrary law enforcement including detention and a ban from exiting the country. – Reuters

China has fast become a top election issue as President Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden engage in a verbal brawl over who’s better at playing the tough guy against Beijing. – Associated Press

The U.S. and Chinese ambassadors have gotten into a Twitter spat in Brazil, echoing the tense relations between the nations as a whole. – Associated Press

John Pomfret writes: At the center of all this is the word “reciprocity.” Chinese officials have told me that they define reciprocity to mean that Chinese government media outlets should be able to benefit from the openness of the American system while their U.S. counterparts must tolerate restrictions imposed by Beijing. That’s reciprocal in Beijing’s view. That’s a perversion of the word. Still, that can be discussed in depth after we’ve called a truce. And to get there, a simple quota system for media access is a good start. – Washington Post

Anjani Trivedi writes: As Covid-19 absorbs the world’s attention, Beijing’s steady focus on implementing this industrial policy may make China the manufacturer of parts that most countries will need – soon. In other words, it will yet again become the factory floor, mastering the production of all things 5G. – Bloomberg

South Asia

Now, weeks after a deadly brawl erupted along the border, thousands of Chinese and Indian troops are amassed over a contentious, jagged line in one of the most remote places on earth. Satellite photos reveal a major Chinese buildup, including a blizzard of new tents, new storage sheds, artillery pieces and even tanks. – New York Times

India has started trade talks with the European Union (EU) and is open to dialogue with the United Kingdom for a free trade agreement, the trade minister said on Saturday, as Asia’s third largest economy looks for new markets for its products. – Reuters

India’s government has petitioned a state court to stop any of the Chinese companies whose 59 apps it recently banned from obtaining an injunction to block the order, according to two sources and the legal filing. – Reuters

India’s external affairs minister said Saturday that Indian and Chinese troops are disengaging from a monthslong standoff along the countries’ undemarcated border following a clash last month that left at least 20 Indian soldiers dead. – Associated Press

Pakistan’s military on Sunday said four soldiers and four militants were killed during a shootout in the rugged northwestern region of North Waziristan, which borders Afghanistan. – Associated Press

Russia

Tens of thousands of people protested in Russia’s Far East on Saturday in a rare display of opposition to President Vladimir V. Putin in the country’s vast hinterland. […]Unlike streets protests in Moscow, which the authorities can easily discredit as the work of a privileged metropolitan elite led astray by Russia’s enemies in the West, the outburst of anger against Mr. Putin in a hardscrabble region nearly 4,000 miles east of the capital presented an unusual and potentially more troublesome challenge. – New York Times

President Trump took credit late last week for a cyberattack on Russia’s Internet Research Agency two years ago, citing it as evidence that he has responded strongly to Russian provocations, despite considerable evidence that he has often excused Moscow’s aggressions in cyberspace and on European territory. – New York Times

The Dutch government is taking Russia to the European Court of Human Rights over the downing nearly six years ago of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine. – New York Times

Marc A. Thiessen writes: During an Oval Office interview with me this week, President Trump acknowledged for the first time that, in 2018, he authorized a covert cyberattack against Russia’s Internet Research Agency, the St. Petersburg-based troll farm that spearheaded Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election and was doing the same in the 2018 midterm elections[…]. Here is something he did right. While Trump is accused of not taking Russian interference seriously, he did more than Obama ever did to combat it. – Washington Post

Africa

Burkina Faso is one of the frontlines of a security crisis in the Sahel, a semi-arid region that extends from Senegal eastward to Sudan. […]The resulting vacuum has allowed armed groups, including jihadists affiliated with Islamic State and al-Qaida, to spill over from neighbouring Mali, driving the government from swathes of Burkina Faso’s northern and eastern frontiers, and sending nearly a million citizens fleeing for their lives. – The Guardian

Alberto Fernandez writes: Heir to a grim historical legacy and caught up in Nile dam tensions between neighboring Egypt and Ethiopia, Sudan would be easy to write off. Yet given the deepening despair and deadlock in most of the Arabic-speaking world, it is crucial that Washington do all it can now—not later—to ensure that Sudan emerges as a tolerant, civilian-led country rather than another failed state. This would be better not just for the United States, but also for a region that is starved for relative success stories amid the gathering gloom. – Washington Institute

Muzaffar Ahmad Noori Bajwa writes: The history of the appearance of ISIS in Mozambique demonstrates a new stage in the evolution of IS jihadists. The speed with which the local IG center has gone from a group of a dozen people to units capable of capturing and maintaining control over thousands of cities is amazing. […]Given this, as well as new challenges in the form of coronavirus and the consequences of the global economic crisis for the continent, we can only fear to expect what the spread of IS in Africa will lead to. – Times of Israel

Cybersecurity

Facebook executives are considering a temporary ban on political advertising in the final days before the U.S. election in November as the company continues to grapple with a large advertising boycott, employee unrest and other issues related to its policies on hate speech and misinformation, according to two people familiar with the company’s thinking. – Washington Post

Since Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News on Monday that the United States was considering banning TikTok over national security concerns, a sentiment echoed by President Donald Trump in an interview on Tuesday, TikTok users have been scrambling. […]Suspicion of TikTok, which is owned by Chinese company ByteDance, has come from the private sector, too. – New York Times

Amazon on Friday asked its employees to delete the Chinese-owned video app TikTok from their cellphones, putting the tech giant at the center of growing suspicion and paranoia about the app. Almost five hours later, Amazon reversed course, saying the email to workers was sent in error. – New York Times

China’s Huawei Technologies has requested a meeting with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to work out a deal to delay its potential removal from the country’s 5G phone network, the Sunday Times newspaper reported on Sunday. – Reuters

A U.S. Cyber Command official said that when they examine whether any given operation or even when a strategy has been successful, they’re not looking at metrics, but rather outcomes. – C4ISRNET

Iridium is considering legal action to block the FCC’s controversial approval of Ligado’s 5G mobile wireless network, which much of the federal government says will interfere with GPS. – Breaking Defense

Long War

A man who left London to join the Islamic State group in Syria has died while being held in prison in the country, the BBC has been told. – BBC

Argentina’s federal judiciary last week froze Hezbollah’s finances for an additional year. – Jerusalem Post

Tunisians have constituted one of the largest groups of foreign jihadists in Syria, Iraq and Libya since 2011, with almost 3,000 departures, according to the Tunisian authorities. […]While public opinion at home is hostile towards the return of jihadists, President Kais Saied raised families’ hopes in January by bringing back six orphans from Libya and promising to “speed up the repatriation” of the others. – Agence France-Presse