Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israel withdrew thousands of troops from Gaza following pressure from the U.S. to transition to a more surgical phase of its war against Hamas, a move that has sparked concerns among some Israeli officials that the pullout could leave the country vulnerable to another surge in militant activity. – Wall Street Journal

Scores of displaced Palestinians fled the grounds of a hospital in southern Gaza as fighting raged on Wednesday in and around the city of Khan Younis, where the Israeli military says it is trying to crush a Hamas stronghold. – New York Times

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly rejected a proposal from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that would have seen Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel in exchange for Jerusalem agreeing to provide the Palestinians with a pathway toward statehood. – Times of Israel

Israel pressed its assault on Khan Younis in southern Gaza on Wednesday, sending tanks westwards while Jordan decried shelling that badly damaged its field hospital in the city. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday that Israel cannot achieve “genuine security” without a pathway to a Palestinian state, insisting such a move could help unify the Middle East and isolate Israel’s top rival: Iran. – Associated Press

A shipment of medicine for dozens of hostages held by Hamas arrived in Gaza on Wednesday, part of a France- and Qatar- mediated deal that marked the first agreement between Israel and the militant group since a weeklong cease-fire in November. – Associated Press

Qatar said it sought a small window of opportunity for a hostage deal as the trucks of medicine headed to Gaza on Wednesday night with drugs for the captives held in the enclave renewed hope for a second agreement to secure additional releases. – Jerusalem Post

The likelihood that Israel will be drawn into a war in Lebanon is growing, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said Wednesday, hours after Hamas terrorists fired a barrage of rockets at a northern Israel town. – Times of Israel

The Israel Defense Forces said Wednesday a soldier was killed fighting in the Gaza Strip, and another two reservists were killed a day earlier, bringing the toll of slain troops in the ground offensive against Hamas to 193. – Times of Israel

Editorial: It is doubly hurtful, however, when these accusations, and the attempts to tie Israel’s hands, come from Jews. But one shouldn’t be surprised: Jewish history, with all its glory, is replete with instances of Jews blind, indifferent, and worse, to the plight of their brethren. – Jerusalem Post

Marc Champion writes: Changing Israel’s behavior toward the occupied territories is an essential requirement for restoring stability in the Middle East, but it’s only part of the solution. Israel won’t relent until the root threat posed to it by Iran and its proxies also gets addressed, even once Netanyahu and his extremist coalition are out of the picture. No matter how much you hate US hegemony, only a tougher, braver wielding of sticks and carrots against the governments of both countries is likely to work. – Bloomberg

Russia & Ukraine

For a microcosm of how the war in Ukraine has warped Russia’s economy, look no further than a carton of eggs. The grocery staple has been in short supply in recent months and prices have skyrocketed, prompting Russians from Belgorod to Siberia to form lines reminiscent of Soviet times. – Wall Street Journal

Russia launched 33 drones and two missiles at Ukraine overnight, with air defences destroying 22 drones, the Ukrainian military said on Thursday. – Reuters

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged Ukraine and its people on Wednesday to seize the initiative to help determine the course of the 22-month-old war against Russia and secure world-wide support. – Reuters

Russia said on Wednesday its forces had carried out a precision strike a day earlier on a building housing “foreign fighters” in Ukraine’s second city Kharkiv. – Reuters

Ukrainian leaders made no secret of wanting to meet with Chinese officials in Switzerland this week but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has headed home without the desired encounter in a blow to Kyiv. – Politico

Hundreds of protesters clashed with police in the Russian region of Bashkortostan on Wednesday in a rare display of public outrage after a court convicted a local activist and sentenced him to prison, media reports and rights groups said. – Associated Press

Glen E. Howard writes: As Clausewitz reminded us nearly two centuries ago, it is up to military strategists to identify the “decisive point” and concentrate upon it. President Zelensky has urged us to keep in mind that the decisive terrain is Crimea, and that Germany’s Taurus cruise missile could be the one weapon provided by the West to help Ukraine destroy the Kerch Straits Bridge — and make 2024 a turning point in the war. – The Hill

David Lewis writes: With the frontline at a territorial stalemate, Ukraine’s chances of regaining full control of the occupied territories by force of arms in 2024 appear slim. Any armistice or freezing of the conflict would draw a line through southern and eastern Ukraine, leaving millions of Ukrainians under Russian rule. As the war grinds on, Russia has time to further consolidate its political, economic, and administrative occupation, making the eventual reintegration of these territories back into Ukraine increasingly difficult. – Foreign Affairs

Andriy Zagorodnyuk writes: The war in Ukraine may be proceeding much more slowly than it was before, but the West must remember that history is full of protracted conflicts—many wars take years to complete and win. Nothing happening on the battlefield today justifies strategic weakness or despair. Russia’s presence in Ukraine, its potential to mobilize, and its industrial base are large but finite. Ukraine has an unwavering determination to win. If Kyiv is backed by the combined Western economy, and even a fraction of the West’s combined defense budgets, it will be fully capable of succeeding. In these circumstances, victory is not a question of possibility. It is, instead, a question of the correct strategy and policy. Most of all, it is a question of choice. – Foreign Affairs

Can Kasapoğlu writes: Ukraine’s 35th Marine Brigade has established a stubborn presence along Krynky’s Russian-occupied left bank, inflicting heavy casualties on Russia’s newly formed 18th Combined Army. According to Ukrainian sources, the 17th Tank Regiment from the Russian 70th Motorized Rifle Division has spent the previous two weeks evacuating disabled armored vehicles from the battlefield across the T-2206 highway south of Krynky. – Hudson Institute

Gulf States

A criminal court in Qatar has sentenced the Gulf Arab state’s former finance minister to 20 years in prison for laundering more than $5.6 billion, according to a document outlining the judgment seen by Reuters. – Reuters

The Iraqi and Saudi foreign ministers discussed in a phone call on Wednesday the latest regional and international developments, led by the Iranian attack on Iraq’s Kurdistan region, the Iraqi foreign ministry said in a statement. – Reuters

Kuwait on Wednesday formed a government headed by Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Sabah al-Salem al-Sabah, the state news agency said, the country’s first cabinet after the death of its previous ruler. – Reuters

Korean Peninsula

Even for a nation that has perfected the provocative, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s declaration that he would abandon the existential goal of reconciling with rival South Korea was a shock. But a closer look shows it’s the almost inevitable culmination of years of building tension. – Associated Press

Nicholas Kristof writes: What I’ve mostly learned from covering North Korea is not to make predictions about it. But it seems prudent to me for the Biden administration to step up diplomatic outreach to Pyongyang, to try to engage China at senior levels on this issue, to allocate intelligence assets to better understand North Korean risks and to ensure that our military forces are prepared. None of us know what will happen, and it would be wise to be ready for anything. – New York Times

James Stavridis writes: The good news is that while the North Korean dictator will leverage his new sense of importance, he will almost certainly stop short of military action against the south. That’s anathema to his sponsors in Beijing and Moscow. Still, for an America embroiled in two wars already, the increasingly angry rhetoric on the Korean peninsula is more than a distraction — it is another real threat to destabilize the American-led global order. – Bloomberg

Bruce W. Bennett writes: Against any of these actions, North Korea could potentially escalate. Thus the ROK and the U.S. would need to include in their planning how they might respond to such escalations. And in some cases, they should be open about such retaliatory threats. Unless Kim concludes that the ROK and the U.S. are finally serious about reining in his provocations, threats, and nuclear weapon development, Kim might eventually establish a form of dominance on the Korean Peninsula or push the Korean Peninsula into a nuclear war that no one wants. – The National Interest

South Asia

Pakistan recalled its ambassador from neighbouring Iran on Wednesday to protest at a “blatant breach” of its sovereignty after Tehran said it launched missile attacks on militant bases in southwestern Pakistan. – Reuters

India’s navy said on Thursday that it responded to a drone attack distress call from a Marshall Islands-flagged vessel in the Gulf of Aden and that the ship’s crew were safe, with a fire on board under control. – Reuters

Indian and Chinese soldiers clashed at least two times in 2022 along their Himalayan frontier where they have been involved in a bitter standoff since 2020, according to new details that have emerged from the Indian Army’s gallantry award citations. – Reuters

Sadanand Dhume writes: But just because Nehru and his successors failed to devise a viable framework for pluralism in India doesn’t mean that Mr. Modi will succeed. Hindu nationalists have struggled to accommodate the 1 in 5 Indians who profess a faith other than Hinduism. Their preoccupation with the past makes harmony with Indian Muslims unlikely. For the foreseeable future, religious conflict will likely remain a leitmotif for the world’s most populous nation. – Wall Street Journal

Salil Tripathi writes: The BNP boycotted the elections in 2014, participated in 2018, and returned to its boycott in 2024. None of this serves Bangladeshis well. The country’s nongovernmental sector has earned praise for its development work at home, and one Bangladeshi NGO operates in several African and Asian countries as well. Domestic NGOs’ development initiatives promoting public health and women’s empowerment are outstanding, and many socioeconomic achievements have taken place because of these volunteers. But its citizens now feel helpless: They live in a country that has the appearance of democracy but has been drained of its spirit. If Bangladesh’s progress continues, once again, it will be despite its government and not because of it. – Foreign Policy

Europe

Polish truckers have lifted their blockade of checkpoints on the border with Ukraine after reaching an agreement with their government, putting an end for now to a two-month protest that has delayed tons of goods from reaching Europe and strained the Ukrainian economy. – New York Times

France on Wednesday became the latest Western country to reject accusations that Israel is committing genocide against Palestinian civilians in Gaza, a charge that was recently brought before a United Nations court in The Hague. – New York Times

Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik took to the stand on Wednesday in a trial in which he is accused of defying the rulings of an international peace envoy, calling the proceedings a “political process” and attacking prosecutors. – Reuters

Delicate talks to create a new Dutch government around anti-Islam firebrand Geert Wilders suffered a setback Wednesday when a lingering immigration issue divided the parties involved in brokering a coalition. – Associated Press

A university professor has been arrested in Estonia on suspicion of facilitating and conducting intelligence activity targeting the country. – The Record

Max Bergmann writes: Because the focus is on immediate production not on future systems, such as a future European tank that could compete with U.S. systems, there are no significant impacts on the U.S. defense industry. Europeans are also eager to make the summit successful and are looking for guidance on deliverables that go beyond the standard demand to spend 2 percent on defense. Europe has the financial firepower to step up and support Ukraine. The United States should insist it do so. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Latin America

Guatemala’s former president is barred from entering the U.S. for accepting bribes, just days after the impoverished Central American nation inaugurated a new president who vowed to root out corruption amid an open confrontation with much of the country’s establishment. – Wall Street Journal 

Bullets flew. Stores and warehouses burned. At the edge of the prime minister’s compound, hundreds of protesters tugged at the gates and set a guard booth on fire. Inside, on the 10th floor of the beige building that housed the office of the country’s leader, he was facing calls to respond forcefully, perhaps even ask the former colonial ruler for help. – New York Times

Just when you thought it was safe to write off Davos as irremediably dull — think Antony Blinken with a side order of Tom Friedman — along comes the self-described “anarcho-capitalist” president of Argentina, Javier Milei, to shake up the Swiss town with a one-two punch to what he perceives to be the “socialist agenda” of various elites. – New York Sun

Michael R. Pompeo writes: America recently marked the 200th anniversary of the Monroe Doctrine, in which President James Monroe recognized that Latin America and the Caribbean matter to American security and prosperity and that foreign powers should not meddle or settle there. President Biden should heed Monroe’s wisdom and put Maduro’s benefactors—Xi, Putin, and the Ayatollah—on notice, making clear that America will hold them responsible for any breach of Guyana’s sovereignty. – The National Interest

Cybersecurity

Small investors in China are using an underground network of brokers and go-betweens to skirt the country’s strict rules on cryptocurrency trading. – Wall Street Journal

The Philippines plans to propose the creation of a Southeast Asian regulatory framework to set rules on artificial intelligence (AI), based on the country’s own draft legislation, the speaker of its Congress said on Wednesday. – Reuters

U.S. lawmakers are demanding answers from the Department of Defense as to why it ignored signs that a scientist who got tens of millions of dollars in federal research grants was for years transferring potentially sensitive research on advanced artificial intelligence to China, Newsweek reports exclusively. – Newsweek

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the FBI are warning about potential threats from Chinese-made drones on critical infrastructure. – CyberScoop

Clara Riedenstein and Bill Echikson write: It’s important to let the process play out. Legislative efforts should avoid being overly punitive. Yet violations of the EU’s Digital Services Act can lead to fines of up to 6% of global annual turnover, and up to 10% for violations of the UK’s Online Safety Act. Platforms rationally could respond by harshly moderating, taking down posts out of caution, as we are seeing playing out with Facebook. – Center for European Policy Analysis