Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

In a dark tunnel lined with concrete, 60 feet below ground, the Israeli general held one hand above the other to illustrate his soldiers’ mission: to destroy Hamas in this sprawling city, and in the intricate warrens beneath it. – Wall Street Journal

The small collection of wartime decision makers—Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and former head of the Israeli military, Benny Gantz—is diverging publicly on the two biggest dilemmas they face: whether Israel should negotiate to end the conflict and free the hostages, and who should govern the bombed-out strip once the war is over. – Wall Street Journal

Israel’s war on Hamas has deprived people in Gaza of food, water, electricity and shelter. It’s also disrupted communications. Gaza’s cellphone network had struggled before the conflict. Now, under Israeli bombardment and the mass displacement of Gazans, it’s failing as people are trying to connect with loved ones and secure resources. – Washington Post

Hamas fighters in the northern Gaza Strip fired at least 25 rockets toward a nearby Israeli city on Tuesday, renewing right-wing criticism in Israel of the government’s decision to scale back some military operations in the war. – New York Times

One tunnel in Gaza was wide enough for a top Hamas official to drive a car inside. Another stretched nearly three football fields long and was hidden beneath a hospital. Under the house of a senior Hamas commander, the Israeli military found a spiral staircase leading to a tunnel approximately seven stories deep. – New York Times

Israeli tanks stormed back into parts of the northern Gaza Strip they had left last week, residents said on Tuesday, reigniting some of the most intense combat since the New Year when Israel announced it was scaling back its operations there. – Reuters

A Palestinian shop owner said Israeli troops used him as a human shield to protect themselves during a raid on the town of Dura in the occupied West Bank. – Reuters

The European Union imposed sanctions on Tuesday on Yahya Sinwar, the political leader of Hamas in Gaza, over the Palestinian militant group’s deadly attack on Israel last October. – Reuters

President Isaac Herzog of Israel was heading to the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday with family members of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza to step up pressure for their release. – Bloomberg

New testimony is beginning to emerge in Israel about sexual abuse being perpetrated by Hamas against the remaining female hostages — 13 or 14 of which are believed to be alive — being held by the terror group in Gaza. – New York Sun

The head of a terrorist cell in Nablus was killed on Tuesday overnight in a joint operation between the IDF and the Shin Bet, the military revealed on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: The time for stocktaking and accountability will come after the war. But if Israel is to emerge as a stronger and more resilient nation, it is essential for its people – and its politicians – to stay united during the war. There is no better way to do this than to form a broad national unity government now. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: His remarks are no less true regarding the West Bank. Israel needs to decide what it intends to do in the occupied territories. In the long run, improving the economy and freeing up funds for the PA will not be enough to prevent terrorist attacks. Israel must recognize the reality: that only a diplomatic solution can solve a national problem. But for that, Israel must get rid of Netanyahu, who has been a complete failure at this as well. – Haaretz

Bret Stephens writes: It’s been nearly 50 years since Daniel Patrick Moynihan condemned the U.N.’s “Zionism is racism” resolution as “this infamous act.” “The abomination of antisemitism,” he warned, “has been given the appearance of international sanction.” Maybe the I.C.J. will make a similar mistake. If so, the shame and disgrace will rest with the accusers, not the accused. – New York Times

Russia & Ukraine

With fighting still raging in Ukraine, and a front line that has barely shifted in more than a year, the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, headed on Tuesday to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, amid a swirl of diplomatic discussions about possible peace talks. – New York Times

Russian President Vladimir Putin met the Russian and North Korean foreign ministers on Tuesday, after their meeting in Moscow, Russian state news agency RIA quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Ukraine’s statehood could suffer an “irreparable blow” if the pattern of the war continued, and Russia would never be forced to abandon the gains it had made. – Reuters

A Russian woman accused of assassinating a prominent pro-war blogger told a court on Tuesday she had thought the package she handed to him in a St Petersburg cafe contained a listening device, not a bomb. – Reuters

Russia’s intense missile and drone attacks across Ukraine in recent weeks sharply increased civilian casualties in December with over 100 killed and nearly 500 injured, the United Nations said in a new report Tuesday. – Associated Press

Off in the distance, Ukraine, fighting for its survival. Seen from up here, in the cockpit of a French air force surveillance plane flying over neighboring Romania, the snow-dusted landscapes look deceptively peaceful. – Associated Press

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy met with his Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday, following a rift between the neighboring nations last year. – Bloomberg

Hal Brands writes: We know now that Putin has been quite reluctant to directly confront the West or use nuclear weapons in Ukraine: He didn’t do so even when his army was reeling in late 2022. But it was harder to know that, as opposed to simply asserting it, at the start of the conflict, when events were most fluid and a different US strategy might have had the greatest effect. – Bloomberg

Timothy L. O’Brien writes: . The war in Gaza has now captured the world’s attention and headlines, diverting attention from Ukraine. Further financial and military aid for Ukraine from Europe and the US appears to have dried up. Yet the stakes haven’t changed, and the world remains at risk. – Bloomberg

Yemen

British oil major Shell suspended all shipments through the Red Sea after U.S. and U.K. strikes on Yemen’s Houthi rebels triggered fears of further escalation, according to people familiar with the decision. – Wall Street Journal

The United States carried out a new military strike against Houthi ballistic missiles in Yemen on Tuesday, the U.S. military said, but the latest salvo against the Iran-backed group left the White House grappling with how to stop a battle-hardened foe from disrupting shipping lanes critical for global trade. – New York Times

More manufacturers are seeking to fly their products in the next few weeks as attacks on Red Sea shipping force them to find alternate routes, logistics firms say, a potential boon for a sector dealing with muted post-pandemic demand and overcapacity. – Reuters

David Ignatius writes: But the bizarre little war off the coast of Yemen — and its big potential effect on global commerce — is a reminder of how fragile the logistical network remains. The grandees of the world economy who are gathering this week in Davos, Switzerland, for their annual celebration of globalization should keep an eye on the distant bottleneck at the Bab el-Mandeb, where the system seems very weak indeed. – Washington Post

Paul Krugman writes: One way to think about the effects of Houthi attacks on shipping is that they may recreate a situation comparable to the supply bottlenecks of the first half of 2021, although on a more limited scale. But as I’ve just argued, those bottlenecks ended up being only a relatively small part of the overall inflation story. And nothing happening in the Middle East will cause the kind of broader disruption that led inflation to become so high and widespread. – New York Times

Gulf States

Qatar and France have brokered a deal with Israel and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas to deliver urgent medication to some 45 Israeli hostages held by the group in Gaza in return for humanitarian and medical aid for the most vulnerable civilians. – Reuters

Military strikes will not contain attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on commercial shipping lanes in the Red Sea, but an end to the war in Gaza will, Qatar’s prime minister said on Tuesday during the World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos. – Reuters

Financial aid to rebuild Gaza will be hard to attract unless the key issue of a two-state solution for the Palestinians and Israelis is properly addressed, Qatar’s prime minister said. – Bloomberg

Korean Peninsula

South Korea has sanctioned two individuals, three entities and 11 ships linked to North Korea’s nuclear and missile programmes, its foreign ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters

North Korea’s foreign minister lauded comradely ties with Russia on Tuesday and then held rare talks in the Kremlin with President Vladimir Putin, who has been invited by Kim Jong Un to visit the reclusive nuclear-armed country. – Reuters

South Korea and the United States have agreed to start early talks on how to share the cost of keeping U.S. forces in the country in a bid to reach a deal before the possible reelection of Donald Trump as president, local media reported on Tuesday. – Reuters

The United States, South Korea and Japan conducted combined naval exercises involving an American aircraft carrier in their latest show of strength against nuclear-armed North Korea, South Korea’s military said Wednesday, as the three countries’ senior diplomats were to meet in Seoul to discuss the deepening standoff with Pyongyang. – Associated Press

South Asia

Pakistan said neighbouring Iran has violated its airspace resulting in the death of two children, hours after Iranian state media said missiles targeted two bases of militant group Jaish al Adl on Tuesday. – Reuters

Supply cuts by OPEC+, costly shipments from some traditional Middle East suppliers and geopolitical tension is driving India, the world’s third biggest oil importer, to diversify its crude sources and accelerate its energy transition, its Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said. – Reuters

Industrial and medical gases manufacturer INOX Air Products said on Tuesday that it has signed a memorandum of understanding with the government of Indian state Maharashtra for a green ammonia plant, which has a planned outlay of $3 billion. – Reuters

Andy Mukherjee writes: While China is knocking on the doors of the rich-nations’ club, India is still a lower-middle-income economy, with many more years of wooing at Davos ahead of it. If New Delhi gets the strategy right, the allurement will follow. – Bloomberg

Europe

Ukraine’s border authorities said Polish truck drivers who had been blocking three crossings on the Polish-Ukrainian border lifted all blockades, allowing traffic to pass freely. – Reuters

Four factories in Spain owned by French tyre maker Michelin are planning to halt output again on the weekend of Jan. 20-21 due to delays in the delivery of raw materials caused by the crisis in the Red Sea, the company’s Spanish subsidiary said on Tuesday. – Reuters

European Union member states have given initial backing to a naval mission to protect ships from attacks by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia in the Red Sea, European diplomats said on Tuesday, after the launch of a U.S.-led mission in the region. – Reuters

U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak suffered a substantial rebellion by Conservative Party lawmakers on Tuesday over his stalled plan to send asylum-seekers on a one-way trip to Rwanda, in a blow both to the policy and to his authority over the fractious governing party. – Reuters

The defense minister of Belarus said Tuesday that the country closely allied with Russia will put forth a new military doctrine that for the first time provides for the use of nuclear weapons. – Associated Press

Kosovo’s defense chief said the Balkan nation will be better defended with an influx of US-supplied anti-tank missiles four months after a violent clash in the country’s north dramatically escalated tensions with Serbia. – Bloomberg

Slovenia has decided to formally join proceedings in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) seeking an advisory opinion on Israeli control of, and policies in, the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem, a motion that precedes South Africa’s genocide allegations heard in the court last week. – Times of Israel

The Americas

El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele holds a large lead ahead of his bid next month to win reelection as president, a poll showed on Tuesday, as one Latin America’s most popular leaders rides a wave of support for his hardline security policies. – Reuters

Argentina’s President Javier Milei was en route by commercial jet to the World Economic Forum in Davos in Switzerland on Tuesday, taking selfies with passengers on board and criticizing what he called the event’s “socialist agenda”. – Reuters

Editorial: Last week’s gang attacks may concentrate the minds of Ecuadorans and the U.S. Mr. Noboa wants a referendum to amend the constitution to allow extradition to the U.S. Last week the State Department said it plans to “increase intelligence sharing, cooperation to combat malicious cyber activity, and assistance with the implementation of prison reforms.” The need for help is urgent to save Ecuadoran democracy and prevent a new source of migrants marching to the U.S. border. – Wall Street Journal

United States

The Senate on Tuesday took the first step in advancing a stopgap spending bill to avoid a partial government shutdown at the end of the week, buying time to enact a broader bipartisan funding agreement for the remainder of the year. – New York Times

President Biden invited congressional leaders to a meeting at the White House on Wednesday to discuss his funding request for Ukraine, Israel and the border, which has been stalled for weeks on Capitol Hill. – New York Times

The effort has divided Democrats and spurred an intensive lobbying countereffort by pro-Israel groups. It reached a peak on Tuesday, when the Senate voted on a resolution threatening to freeze all U.S. security aid to Israel unless the State Department produces a report within 30 days examining whether the country committed human rights violations in its conduct of the war. – New York Times

The U.N. human rights office on Tuesday called on the U.S. state of Alabama to halt its first planned execution of a prisoner by nitrogen gas asphyxiation this month, saying it could amount to torture and violate U.S. commitments under international law. – Reuters

Editorial: Whether these activists know it or not, this might end up stiffening American support for Israel among Mr. Biden and other normal Democrats, who don’t want to be associated with such a display. It should increase the public’s resolve that protesters who break the law or stop traffic need to be prosecuted. – Wall Street Journal

Joseph Bosco writes: To avoid repeating his mistakes on Ukraine and Iran, Biden should state again publicly, as he has already, that America will directly defend Taiwan. But this time it should be done not as an ad hoc answer to a reporter’s random question but as a fully vetted presidential statement of official U.S. policy, without staff or State Department watering-down or “clarification.” – The Hill

Graham Allison writes:  This year promises to be a year of danger as countries around the world watch U.S. politics with a combination of disbelief, fascination, horror, and hope. They know that this political theater will choose not only the next president of the United States but also the world’s most consequential leader. – Foreign Affairs

Defense

The U.S. Navy completed its first deployment of four unmanned ships, which spent five months in the Pacific testing concepts for how to integrate their capabilities into crewed fleet operations. – Defense News

Northrop Grumman on Tuesday announced it successfully test fired the second-stage solid-rocket motor for the LGM-35A Sentinel nuclear missile now under development. – Defense News

Kelly A. Grieco and Jennifer Kavanagh write: One of the biggest barriers to the adoption of a balancing approach is Washington’s mindset. The idea that military dominance must be pursued in Asia is deeply ingrained in U.S. foreign and defense policy. This presumption risks becoming even more entrenched as leaders in both political parties fear slipping behind Beijing. But a balancing approach constitutes neither appeasement nor defeatism. It is perhaps the only fiscally sustainable way to protect U.S. interests in the region for decades to come. – Foreign Affairs

Caitlin Lee and Paul Lushenko write: The U.S. approach to countering tactical drones has too narrowly focused on defensive options. The popular narrative around the democratization of drone technologies has fed into the idea that drones are too ubiquitous to be targeted before they launch. But the most sophisticated drone capabilities still require supply chains, manufacturing facilities, and training regimes that are all viable targets for a variety of interdiction efforts. – War on the Rocks