Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

The men were two of three Russian fighters with the Wagner mercenary group who had been captured a few hours earlier in a northern section of the embattled city of Bakhmut, according to a Ukrainian officer with a sidearm on his hip, who was the only other person present. – Washington Post

Shortly after 4 a.m. local time on Feb. 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. This oral history describes the first day of the war as recalled by Ukrainian, American and European leaders and senior political, military and intelligence officials. – Washington Post

Ben Stewart arrived outside the Russian Embassy early on Thursday morning with a throng of volunteers, four wheelbarrows and 70 gallons of blue and yellow paint, ready to send a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine. – Washington Post

The training at a German military base near Munster is part of an effort across Europe to get Ukrainian forces acquainted with the tanks and infantry fighting vehicles they have been promised. But while Berlin had hoped to pull together two Leopard 2 battalions — totaling about 70 tanks — for Ukraine ahead of an anticipated Russian offensive this spring, the West is still short on contributions. – Washington Post

The U.N. General Assembly voted overwhelmingly on Thursday, the eve of the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion, in favor of a resolution calling for an end to the war and demanding that Russia leave Ukrainian territory. The nonbinding resolution advocates for peace, reaffirms support to Ukraine’s sovereignty and highlights the need for accountability for war crimes. – Washington Post

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a year ago today, set off a cascade of global repercussions for energy, economics, geopolitics and the role of American leadership. More than 300,000 people are estimated to have been killed or wounded. Millions more have fled their homes. The war also united the West, recast global energy trade and exposed the limits of U.S. military manufacturing. – Wall Street Journal

A year ago, the United States did something extraordinary — it released previously classified intelligence that exposed Russia’s plans to invade Ukraine. […] In a previous era, the warning might have remained private, at least for some time. But a new intelligence playbook honed just before and during the war in Ukraine has redefined how the United States uses its classified knowledge to undercut Russia and its partners. – New York Times

Ukrainians know that the risk is real. Near the front lines on Thursday, Russian forces pounded residential areas, killing at least three people and leaving two buried in the rubble of a building, Ukrainian officials said Thursday. – New York Times

After Russia invaded Ukraine, the West formed what looked like an overwhelming global coalition: 141 countries supported a United Nations measure demanding that Russia unconditionally withdraw. – New York Times

On Tuesday, Yevgeny Prigozhin went further than he ever had in his public standoff with Russia’s military leaders, claiming the defense minister and the country’s most senior general were starving his private army of ammunition. – New York Times

The Ukrainian military on Thursday said the southern port city of Mariupol was now within reach of its weapons, suggesting without providing details that Kyiv has longer range weapons at its disposal than it did even a month ago. – New York Times

Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said on Thursday that the United States would redouble its efforts to marshal global support to help Ukraine and warned that China would face repercussions if it helped Russia evade American sanctions. – New York Times    

Ukraine’s president pledged to push for victory in 2023 as he and other Ukrainians on Friday marked the somber first anniversary of the Russian invasion that he called “the longest day of our lives.” – Associated Press 

Ukraine’s first lady Olena Zelenska gave a video tour of human rights violations in the country following Russia’s invasion almost a year ago, telling a U.N. meeting Wednesday: “We have the right to live free, not to be killed or tortured.” – Associated Press 

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday countries like India and South Africa, which have not joined the West in denouncing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, were likely on a trajectory away from alignment with Moscow but that process would not happen “in one fell swoop.” – Reuters

The Australian government said on Friday it would send more drones to Ukraine to aid its fight against Russia on the anniversary of the invasion, and imposed new targeted financial sanctions against 90 Russian individuals and 40 entities. – Reuters

Germany will support Ukraine “as strongly and as long as necessary”, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Thursday, the one-year anniversary of the full-scale invasion of the country by Russia. – Reuters

Russia is in talks with a Chinese manufacturer about buying 100 drones, with a delivery date of April, German magazine Der Spiegel reported on Thursday, without citing specific sources. – Reuters

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday he had not yet seen a Chinese plan for ending Russia’s war on Ukraine but that he would welcome talks with Beijing. – Reuters

Britain marked the one-year anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine by issuing more sanctions against Russia, including export bans on every item it has used on the battlefield.’ – Reuters

Moldova dismissed an accusation by Russia’s defence ministry on Thursday that Ukraine planned to invade the breakaway Moldovan region of Transdniestria after staging a false flag operation, and called for calm. – Reuters

Russia’s Wagner group of mercenaries has taken full control of the Ukrainian village of Berkhivka, a village on the outskirts of Bakhmut, Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Friday. – Reuters

The United States will provide Ukraine an additional $2 billion in security assistance, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Thursday. – Reuters

U.S. President Joe Biden will meet virtually on Friday with G7 leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to mark the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and announce new sanctions against those aiding Russia’s war effort, the White House said. – Reuters

Vladimir Putin’s decision to suspend Russia’s participation in the last remaining arms control agreement with the US has increased fears over uncontrolled nuclear proliferation and a potential new arms race. – Financial Times

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reached hit the one-year mark with no clear end in sight. As the United Nations General Assembly passed a nonbinding resolution calling on Moscow to end its war, China and Brazil offered dueling peace plans, neither of which is likely to gain traction. – Bloomberg

An uncrewed Russian spacecraft launched from Kazakhstan early Friday local time, serving as a lifeboat for three astronauts currently on board the International Space Station that will allow them to return to Earth safely after a delayed homecoming. – Bloomberg

The US had been warning of a looming invasion for weeks. Sullivan’s team had a plan, one they’d kept closely held out of fear it would be discovered by Russian intelligence. It involved freezing some $300 billion of Russian central bank assets held abroad. That would generate enough shock and awe, the authors figured, to bring President Vladimir Putin’s war to a halt — or at the very least, severely hamper his ability to fight it. – Bloomberg

Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is intensifying a campaign to mediate an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine as he seeks to reinsert Brazil in the global political stage. – Bloomberg

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky knows he has only one sure path to lasting victory over Vladimir Putin’s invasion force — and it doesn’t involve trading land for peace. – Washington Examiner

A top Biden administration official affirmed that no evidence exists that Ukraine is misusing the financial assistance it is receiving from the United States. – The Hill

A year later, there appears to be no end in sight. The cost of the conflict continues to mount, peace talks have stalled and both sides have suffered staggering losses, with tens of thousands of soldiers killed. – Newsweek

Russian troops have been left “mauled” nearly one year into its invasion of Ukraine, says Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley. – Newsweek  

A Ukrainian political analyst argued in an article Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s suspension of his country’s participation in the New START treaty is a negotiating tactic that “is likely to fail.” – Newsweek

The Russian troops who poured into Ukraine a year ago had a seemingly powerful weapon to keep Kyiv’s would-be allies cowed — Moscow’s dominance of Europe’s oil and gas supplies. – Politico

The U.S. Army is weighing how to get M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, but they may not even arrive until next year, the service’s secretary said Thursday. – Defense News

Editorial: The Administration can get tanks, drones and long-range missiles into Kyiv’s hands if it summons the political will. President Biden promised this week in Poland that “Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia,” but ensuring that result will require tanks, not words. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: In discussing the need to defend national sovereignty and democracy, it should be noted that President Joe Biden cares far more about Ukraine’s than he does about America’s. He abandoned our southern border on his first day in office. The two issues are linked only by principle, not by finances. We have the resources to aid Ukraine and secure our own sovereign democracy. Biden just needs the political will to do so. Congress should do all it can to make sure Biden does both. – Washington Examiner

Iuliia Mendel writes: They’ve already shown that they can innovate on the battlefield — in areas ranging from drones to communications. Engineers are using 3D printers to produce spare parts close to the front lines. The war has given a huge boost to Ukraine’s tech sector.[…]All this gives me hope for the future. Today’s war heroes, organizers and businesspeople will be the leaders of tomorrow. The energies unleashed by this war will enrich the country that comes after it. Accuse me of optimism if you wish. But I feel it in my bones. – Washington Post

Josh Rogin writes: The first thing you will hear from any Ukrainian is “Thank you.” Ukrainians are not ungrateful or greedy — they are trying to survive. But their desperation is increasing. “As long as it takes” must not become an excuse for a lack of urgency. By next year’s anniversary, there might not be a Ukraine to save. – Washington Post

Christian Caryl writes: A scenario in which a devastating Russian loss — like Milosevic’s catastrophic failure to impose his will on the Balkans — prompts Putin’s downfall and subsequent prosecution remains a long shot. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t start putting together the case against him. – Washington Post

Sergey Radchenko writes: The Ukrainians, though perhaps not fully recovering their territories, will have fended off an aggressive foe. The Russians, for their part, can disguise their strategic defeat as a tactical victory. The conflict will be frozen, a far from ideal result. Yet if we have learned anything from the Korean War, it is that a frozen conflict is better than either an outright defeat or an exhausting war of attrition. – New York Times

Paul Krugman writes: None of this means that Russia can’t eventually conquer Ukraine. If it does, however, it will, in part, be because America’s Putin fans force a cutoff of crucial aid. And if this happens, it will be because the U.S. right can’t stand the idea of a world in which woke doesn’t mean weak and men who pose as tough guys are actually losers. – New York Times

Jillian Kay Melchior writes: The Ukrainian government has called on its Western supporters to send more military drones, which fly farther, carry heavier payloads, and are better protected against countermeasures. “If you look at the military aid of the United States to Ukraine, you will see that the amount of drones is very limited,” says Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine’s internal-affairs minister. “We really need more drones.” – Wall Street Journal

Felicia Schwartz writes: But the nuances in outlook between Washington and Ukraine will only be more obvious over time. While Ukrainian officials talk of military victory restoring the nation’s territorial integrity, American officials are less committal. They assess that neither Russia nor Ukraine can achieve their goals on the battlefield this year. For Kyiv to prevail, in their view, will take years, short of a dramatic escalation of military support. – Financial Times 

John Garamendi writes: With no end in sight, we do not know how much longer the war in Ukraine will rage on. However, as Russia and China look to wreak havoc on the world stage, we do know that continuing our support for Ukraine and our strategic partners is both the correct moral decision and the right strategic move for the United States. We must continue to hold the line and push back against extreme Russian sympathizers in the U.S. Congress who seek to undermine America and its allies. – Newsweek 

Joshua C.Huminski writes: The longer the war progresses and the more painful the economic and political situation becomes, the greater the opportunity for Western intelligence success. Maintaining pressure on Russia’s security and intelligence services is as important as supplying arms to Kyiv, not just for the war in Ukraine, but for the longer-term Euro-Atlantic security architecture. – The Hill

Nataliya Gumenyuk writes: But Ukraine didn’t fall, and now its citizens have much higher expectations for the state and what needs to be done to rebuild the country. It will be up to both the Ukrainian people and their leaders not to squander the opportunity when the war is over. – Foreign Affairs

John Herbst, David J. Kramer, and William Taylor write: Ukraine, then, must win completely. The stakes are enormous, and failure would prove costly to the entire world. Such a victory will not be easy; Putin remains dug in, committed to throwing Russian troops at his objectives no matter the human cost. But the Ukrainians can prevail—as long as NATO continues to support their struggle for freedom, democracy, and security. – Foreign Affairs

Nina Tannenwald writes: Responsible U.S. leaders will err on the side of caution to avoid such a catastrophic outcome. The past year saw the continuation of the 77-year tradition of nuclear weapons not being used. Western leaders must do as much as they can to ensure that this streak continues, even as the horrific war in Ukraine rages on. – Foreign Affairs

Joshua Yaffa writes: As Russia’s war enters its second year, and as Russia is unlikely to muster the military force necessary to produce an outright victory, the brick wall is only getting closer. But that doesn’t mean one should expect many more people to jump out before the crash. – Foreign Affairs

Pavel Luzin writes: But its key need is for a ceasefire. The Russian leadership seeks an opportunity to reorganize and refresh its military machine before renewing its assault on Ukraine in the coming years, a victory which it hopes would also destroy Transatlantic unity and Western global leadership. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Oleksandr Moskalenko writes: But what really matters is that this new security arrangement provides Ukraine with clear and practical guarantees which can be implemented in times of crisis. Ukraine remembers the Budapest memorandum of 1994, which deprived it of the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal in return for empty promises. The failure to make good on that document got us where we are today; with Ukraine fighting for its national existence. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Andrew R. Novo writes: This war is fundamentally altering the international landscape in which we live, shaping our lives in ways that will endure for decades to come. Those contours have yet to take shape because Ukrainians and Russians are fighting to establish this new topography. Since they are shaping our future world, the people of Europe and the United States cannot lose focus, even after a long and brutal year of war. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Lera Burlakova writes: And yet so far, the Ukrainian armed forces have grown and have not buckled under the weight of a relentless Russian assault. There is a sense, underlying its performance, of a nation that understands that its freedom and even existence are under threat, and must be defended. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Graham Allison writes: Students of the U.S. War of Independence will remember the Battle of Bunker Hill. There, British soldiers occupying Boston succeeded in seizing the high ground. But their victory came at the cost of so many of their soldiers killed and severely wounded that they never undertook an initiative like that again. Let us hope that the West’s fortitude and Putin’s failure in this case reduces Russia’s appetite for subsequent attacks on its neighbors. – Foreign Policy

Maria Snegovaya, Tina Dolbaia , Nick Fenton and Max Bergmann writes: In both cases, the authorities attempted to stifle social protests through a combination of repression and social spending, yet those solutions only exacerbated the existing pressures on the regime. This analysis, therefore, leads the authors to conclude that the international sanctions regime will eventually make it much more arduous for Putin to sustain his war in Ukraine. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Syria

A German court on Thursday convicted a Palestinian man from Syria of a war crime and murder for launching a grenade into a crowd of civilians waiting for food in Damascus in 2014. He was sentenced to life in prison. – Associated Press

As president of Syria, Bashar Assad has presided over a decade-long war that has killed 600,000 of his own countrymen. With regional and world leaders now rushing to Syria’s aid in the wake of an earthquake in which some 5,000 people died, will the Butcher of Damascus be rehabilitated? – New York Sun 

Syrian President Bashar Assad visited Oman on Monday for an important trip to the Gulf region, where the Syrian regime has been making new inroads. – Jerusalem Post 

Arabian Peninsula

Oman cleared the way on Thursday for Israeli planes to fly over its airspace, ending a decades long ban that indicates a further thawing of ties between Israel and Arab nations that have long refused to openly embrace the Jewish nation. – Wall Street Journal

The Vatican and Oman established diplomatic ties on Thursday, marking a further widening of the Holy See’s official relations with the Arab Muslim World. – Reuters

Fatima Abo Alasrar writes: A mechanism will need to be put in place to ensure that revenues are not captured by militias or improperly disbursed by any party in Yemen’s conflict. Finally, the Yemeni government must take control of the country’s main revenue sources and ensure their fair distribution — this applies to financial resources from the oil sector and revenues generated by the port of Hodeida and areas under Houthi control. Failure to do so to date has effectively helped to finance the conflict. – Middle East Institute

Korean Peninsula

North Korea launched four cruise missiles, flying in figure-eight patterns and landing in the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan as military exercises raise tensions in the region. – Wall Street Journal

The United States will likely limit the level of advanced semiconductors made by South Korean companies in China, a senior U.S. official said. – Reuters

​​North Korean state media marked the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by blaming the crisis on NATO and calling America’s involvement a “trail to self-destruction.” – Reuters

The US and South Korea held discussions over ways they would respond to possible nuclear attacks by North Korea, which has been steadily building up its capability to deliver a credible atomic strike against the two. – Bloomberg

South Asia

The U.S. military released two brothers on Thursday who had been held as detainees in the war against terrorism for helping to operate safe houses where suspected operatives of Al Qaeda holed up after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. – New York Times

Pakistan shut down a key border crossing with Afghanistan just hours after it was reopened on Thursday, officials said, the latest twist in the controversial closure of the Torkham junction that started earlier this week. – Associated Press 

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged global financial leaders to focus on the world’s “most vulnerable citizens” as he inaugurated a G20 meeting on Friday, the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. – Reuters

Europe

The European Commission banned staffers Thursday from using the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok on their work devices over security concerns, following similar moves in the United States and a growing standoff between China and the West. – Washington Post

Small towns in Bulgaria, with its large pro-Russian population, might seem unlikely linchpins of Ukraine’s military effort. But one year into the war, despite an influx of sophisticated Western arms, the Ukrainian military still relies primarily on weapons that fire Soviet-standard munitions. The United States and its NATO allies don’t produce those munitions, and the few countries outside Russia that do are mostly in the former Soviet orbit. – New York Times

The European Union’s judicial cooperation agency, Eurojust, said Thursday that it is setting up a new center to support efforts to gather evidence of the crime of aggression in Ukraine. – Associated Press

But Germany’s chief utility regulator is not ready to sound the all clear on an energy crisis spawned by the war in Ukraine, even with natural gas reserves abundant and prices well down from their peak. – Associated Press

A dissident Irish Republican Army splinter group is suspected of shooting the detective Wednesday night after a kids’ soccer session at a sports complex in Omagh, about 60 miles (nearly 100 kilometers) west of Belfast. Three men were arrested Thursday on suspicion of attempted murder. – Associated Press

Hungary plans to send a delegation to Sweden and Finland to resolve “political disputes” that have raised doubts among some Hungarian lawmakers of whether to support the two Nordic nations’ applications to join NATO, a senior Hungarian lawmaker said Thursday. – Associated Press  

Senior U.K. and European Union officials met Thursday as part of what Britain called “intensive negotiations” to resolve a thorny post-Brexit trade dispute that has spawned a political crisis in Northern Ireland. – Associated Press 

A meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s parliamentary assembly got underway Thursday without the Ukrainian delegation, which described the presence of Russian lawmakers as “an affront.” – Associated Press

European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis told reporters before his meetings with Bulgarian officials that the country wouldn’t become a eurozone member before the beginning of 2025. – Associated Press

The incoming Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides on Thursday held his first meeting with Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar to try and break the ice on frozen reunification talks. – Agence France-Presse

French President Emmanuel Macron will next week undertake a four-nation tour of central African countries, the presidency said Thursday, as Paris seeks to counter growing Chinese and Russian influence in the region. – Agence France-Presse

Moldova has urged citizens to remain calm after the Russian ministry of defence claimed Ukraine was preparing to take over a Moldovan breakaway region that is home to a large ammunition depot. – Financial Times

Germany’s deputy chancellor said Berlin will crack down on companies that dodge western sanctions imposed on Moscow, including the threat of criminal prosecution for false export declarations. – Financial Times  

The head of the International Energy Agency has warned that Europe has not yet won its energy war with Russia despite a big drop in gas prices, as he urged governments to remain focused on conserving and boosting supplies. – Financial Times 

Does Vladimir Putin really want a piece of Moldova? In a sense he already does — it’s called Transnistria — but one year after the Russian strongman ordered an invasion of Ukraine war drums are sounding again as Moscow makes a play for the poor Eastern European country sandwiched between NATO-member Romania and Ukraine. – New York Sun

There are stranger paradoxes, but it took an 86-year-old Italian billionaire politician to make Italy the poster child of Europe’s weariness with the year-old war in Ukraine. The visit of the energetic Italian premier, Giorgia Meloni, to Kyiv this week was largely symbolic and devoid of drama, but the elephant in the room was a former four-time Italian prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi. – New York Sun  

The Black Sea, which borders Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey, was a key naval area for both Russia, which has a fleet dedicated to the area, and to Ukraine, in addition to a path for grain exports from Ukraine. – USNI News 

Joseph C. Sternberg writes: From the Ukraine war’s earliest days one suspected Europe’s problem wouldn’t be ignorance of the dangers facing it, but rather a refusal to address them. The surprise of the past year has been that this refusal persists even as Europe—and not just Ukraine—pays the price for the Continent’s perverse willingness to go dark before it gets smart. – Wall Street Journal

Denis Cenusa writes: While Russian-coordinated subversion cannot be ruled out, Moldovan authorities must also be vigilant about the risks emanating from Transnistria and Gagauzia, an autonomous territorial unit of Moldova, from where provocateurs, with or without military training, can easily travel by land to Chisinau. The most potent threats to Moldova that Russia can most quickly activate come from within. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Nicholas Lokker, Jim Townsend, Heli Hautala and Andrea Kendall-Taylor write: Failure to address this evolving threat could result in a paradoxical situation in which Europe—particularly along its northeastern edges—becomes even more insecure despite NATO’s expanded role in the region. Managing both the short- and long-term consequences of this evolution are therefore critical tasks for NATO, Sweden, and Finland going forward. – Center for a New American Security

The Americas

Three men accused of being high-ranking leaders of the transnational criminal gang MS-13 were arrested in Mexico on Wednesday and will be sent to New York to face charges, the Justice Department announced on Thursday. – New York Times

Trinidad and Tobago next month expects to formally begin negotiations with Venezuela on a promising offshore natural gas project, the Caribbean nation’s energy minister said on Thursday. – Reuters

Marc A. Thiessen writes: DeSantis is right that Biden’s failure to secure our southern border is a disgrace, as was his weak response to China’s brazen incursion into U.S. airspace. But it does not follow from Biden’s failure to secure our border and skies that we should not support the Ukrainian people in their courageous fight for freedom. We need a president with the focus and energy to do both. – Washington Post

Amanda Rothschild writes: This year, Mr. Biden missed an opportunity to garner support among both parties in Congress and among the American people for his foreign policy agenda. House gallery guests are often the best communicators on an issue. Future presidents should let them be heard. – New York Sun 

Defense

Pentagon military planners constantly plan and war game to anticipate various forms of enemy incursions or attacks on U.S. airspace. Even so, the arrival last month of a Chinese high-altitude balloon called for a measure of creativity, putting weapons to an unfamiliar test. – Washington Post 

The Association for Uncrewed Vehicle Systems International said it created a program to evaluate the security of commercial drones, modeled on a similar process developed by the Defense Innovation Unit for the military. – Defense News 

After embedding information warfare sailors and officers aboard two subs, there are now talks “to invest full-time, probably, in at least two cryptologic technicians to be onboard” and perform electronic warfare and related tasks, according to Navy Vice Adm. Kelly Aeschbach, the commander of Naval Information Forces. – Defense News  

The Marines have a plan for a fight spread out across wide swaths of the Pacific with small units moving from island to island. Now, the service is working through how it will get bullets, beans and bandages to units spread across thousands of miles. – USNI News 

In recent years, the United States has focused such efforts on developing hypersonic glide vehicles, which are launched from a rocket before gliding to a target, and hypersonic cruise missiles, which are powered by high-speed, air-breathing engines during flight. – USNI News

Boeing today announced it will finish production of new-build F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter aircraft in late 2025, closing out a line of aircraft that has been a staple of the US Navy’s fleet for four decades. – Breaking Defense  

One year ago Russia invaded Ukraine, sparking a conflict that’s resulted in, by one US estimate, over 200,000 casualties. It also has provided key lessons about modern warfare that, until the last year, were largely academic in nature. – Breaking Defense 

Natalia Antonova writes: That Americans are tired of war is understandable. In fact, Russians gambled on that in the beginning. Americans proved them wrong. We can, and should, continue to prove them wrong. As a nation, we are greater than our fears. – Foreign Policy