Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The looming Israeli military plans to invade Rafah have exacerbated tensions between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and the Biden administration, which has grown increasingly frustrated with its attempts to rein in Israel’s military campaign. – Wall Street Journal

Shem Tov and his sister, Dana, were among dozens of families and released hostages who traveled to The Hague on Wednesday to raise awareness about the hostages and help submit allegations of war crimes against Hamas to the International Criminal Court. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. is investigating several Israeli airstrikes in Gaza that killed dozens of civilians and the possible use by Israel of white phosphorus in Lebanon, as part of a probe by the State Department to determine whether one of America’s closest allies has misused its bombs and missiles to kill civilians, U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal. – Wall Street Journal

Israel said Wednesday that it wouldn’t resume negotiations aimed at halting fighting in the Gaza Strip and the release of hostages until Hamas softens its demands, a setback for the Biden administration’s push to secure a deal that could avert an Israeli offensive on the densely populated city of Rafah. – Wall Street Journal

The Israeli government said on Wednesday it has approved the use of Starlink satellite services in a field hospital in the war-battered Gaza Strip, and in Israel for the first time. – Reuters

President Joe Biden handed over nearly all of the $77,942 worth of gifts from foreign leaders in 2022 to the National Archives. One of the exceptions: the Presidential Medal of Honor awarded him by Israeli President Isaac Herzog, which was displayed in the West Wing. – Bloomberg

The United States on Wednesday rebuked Israel for demolishing the home of a Palestinian activist in east Jerusalem, saying its ally was damaging its own standing. – Agence France-Presse

Christopher A. Wray, director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, made an unannounced trip to Israel on Wednesday to meet with officials from the country’s intelligence and law enforcement agencies, the F.B.I. said. – New York Times

Editorial: Is that how Washington managed Lend-Lease for Britain in World War II? Give us the tools, and we will finish the job, says Mr. Netanyahu. Once Rafah falls, Israel’s fighting can shift to a lower-intensity mopping-up phase, bringing the war to an end. Rafah is Hamas’s last stand as a governing force, so expect it to pull every political lever to stop Israel. The question is why the Biden Administration is cooperating. – Wall Street Journal

Russia & Ukraine

The consequences of politics in Washington are playing out in Oleksander Kucheriavenko’s Humvee on the eastern front of Ukraine’s war against Russia. – Wall Street Journal

A Kremlin spokesman said that the fate of Americans detained in Russia could only be resolved “in silence.” – Wall Street Journal

For nearly two years, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell regularly took to the Senate floor to urge America not to abandon Ukraine, even as support for the war-torn country eroded among Republican voters and his critics grew bolder and more vitriolic, openly questioning his ability to lead. […]But more than half of McConnell’s Senate Republican conference voted against the bill, and in an interview after the vote, he acknowledged his views in favor of muscular, engaged American leadership in the world no longer prevail. Instead, he said, it is the isolationist America First wing of his party, led by former President Donald Trump, that is ascendant for now. – Wall Street Journal

Russia is developing a space-based military capability that members of Congress and U.S. officials worry could pose a significant threat to the United States and its allies, possibly by damaging critical intelligence or communications satellites with a nuclear weapon, according to officials familiar with the matter. – Washington Post

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III, speaking by video, told defense ministers meeting in Brussels Wednesday that the United States would maintain its support for Ukraine, but he made no mention of a multibillion-dollar aid package that has yet to gain Congressional approval. – New York Times

The true casualty toll in Russia from its invasion of Ukraine is an enduring secret of the war. The Kremlin maintains a policy of silence, and many Russians do not speak publicly for fear of repercussions. – New York Times

Ukraine said on Wednesday that its forces had sunk a large Russian ship off the coast of Crimea before dawn, in what would be another powerful blow against the Russians at sea, as outgunned Ukrainian soldiers struggle to hold back bloody assaults on land. – New York Times

When former President Donald J. Trump told a campaign rally in South Carolina last weekend that he would encourage Russia to attack NATO allies who “didn’t pay,” there were gasps of shock in Washington, London, Paris, Tokyo and elsewhere around the world. – New York Times

A German man has been detained on arrival in the Russian city of St Petersburg with gummy candies containing cannabis, Russia’s customs service said in a statement. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law Wednesday that will allow authorities to confiscate money, valuables and other assets from people convicted of spreading “deliberately false information” about the country’s military. – Associated Press

US intelligence shows that Russia is discussing the possibility of basing a nuclear weapon in space, according to people familiar with the matter, a finding that emerged after a top House Republican publicly warned of an unspecified national-security threat. – Bloomberg

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley is throwing her support behind legislation that would let the US seize sovereign Russian assets to pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction, as she steps up her foreign-policy attacks on GOP frontrunner Donald Trump. – Bloomberg

Canada is giving Ukraine C$60 million ($44 million) to support F-16 fighter aircraft, as Kyiv works to build up aerial superiority and beat back the Russian invasion. – Bloomberg

UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron urged US legislators to approve a package of aid for Ukraine, saying “it’s a matter of global security.” – Bloomberg

Wesley Clark writes: For Ukraine, this is a matter of national survival. For the West, it is an opportunity to secure Europe and the rules-based international order at minimum cost and risk. It is the last best chance to avoid a larger confrontation with Russia that might require a general mobilization and engulf NATO in open warfare. China is watching. We mustn’t wait for another Pearl Harbor to recognize and respond to the growing threat to our country. – Wall Street Journal

David Ingatius writes: Russia, it seems, is looking for new ways to challenge the United States’ space supremacy. But given the ingenuity of U.S. engineers in helping friends and evading enemies, it’s a safe bet that the cycle of punch and counterpunch in space is just beginning. – Washington Post

Marc A. Thiessen writes: This much is certain: There is no time to waste. Right now, with military aid stalled, Ukrainian troops are being forced to ration artillery. It is only a matter of time before Congress’s failure to act begins to result in Russian military gains on the ground. Johnson needs to move a bill, and fast. – Washington Post

Vladimir Kara-Murza writes: This doesn’t mean that change will happen tomorrow or next month. But a society that feels more empowered and more confident about itself is suddenly a force to be reckoned with. And that is bad news for any dictator. – Washington Post

George F. Will writes: An America whose empathy is so shriveled that it will not help to sustain Ukraine’s heroism had better hope that the world has exhausted its supply of nasty surprises. Such an America is unprepared for any future that resembles the past. – Washington Post

Mikhail Zygar writes: Such a malfunction could have unexpected consequences. The bureaucrats surrounding Mr. Kiriyenko, according to a source close to the administration who asked not to be named to discuss confidential information, have already started mulling a change to the Constitution that would spare Mr. Putin the rigors of re-election. Russian propaganda has long sought to show that Western democracy is destructive and chaotic. Perhaps, the Kremlin might think, the time has come to abandon it altogether. – New York Times

Andreas Kluth writes: More importantly, the international community would send a signal that it’s determined not to fail this time as it did in the 1930s. It will set a precedent which says that the aggressor pays. Two years into Putin’s atrocities, the world must assert justice — by enforcing the letter and spirit of international law. – Bloomberg

Lebanon

Israel on Wednesday launched its longest and heaviest attack on neighboring Lebanon since the start of the Gaza war, striking several locations in the south, killing at least one Hezbollah fighter and three civilians, and raising further the specter of war between the two long-standing enemies. – Washington Post

When the Israel Defense Forces unleashed Wednesday their heaviest airstrikes on Lebanon since the start of the conflict in October, it said several of its targets were sites associated with Hezbollah’s elite Redwan force. […]Here’s what to know about these forces. – Washington Post

Hezbollah’s barrage of rockets today across northern Israel, killing one Israeli soldier, is aimed at terrorizing a number of Israeli communities. – New York Sun

Yemen

The United Nations fears that a U.S. decision to return Yemen’s Houthi rebels to a list of terrorist groups could harm the war-torn country’s economy, particularly commercial imports of essential items, a senior U.N. aid official said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Greece-headquartered Star Bulk will halt sailings through the Red Sea after Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis attacked two of its ships in recent days, the group’s CEO said. – Reuters

Russia and China on Wednesday accused the United States and Britain of illegally attacking military sites used by Yemen’s Houthi rebels to launch missiles at commercial vessels in the Red Sea, disrupting global shipping. – Associated Press

Sailors aboard the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and its accompanying warships have spent four months straight at sea defending against ballistic missiles and flying attack drones fired by Iranian-backed Houthis, and are now more regularly also defending against a new threat — fast unmanned vessels that are fired at them through the water. – Associated Press

Korean Peninsula

The United States supports Japan’s efforts to hold talks with North Korea and hopes any dialogue would seek to resolve issues ranging from regional security to human rights, Washington’s envoy on North Korean human rights issues said on Wednesday. – Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un supervised a test of new surface-to-sea missiles and warned that the country would take a more aggressive military posture in disputed seas, the North’s state media said Thursday. – Associated Press

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s office said Wednesday that presumed North Korean hackers breached the personal emails of one of his staff members ahead of Yoon’s trip to Europe in November. – Associated Press

Kim Jong Un has sent new batches of his workers overseas since relaxing pandemic border controls and launched a fresh crackdown on his people, according to the US point person for North Korean human rights. – Bloomberg

South Korea established formal diplomatic relations with Cuba, a country whose steadfast loyalty to North Korea had for decades apparently kept it from forging ties with Seoul. – Bloomberg

The European Union has proposed sanctions on North Korea for providing Russia with missiles used against Ukraine, according to documents seen by Bloomberg. – Bloomberg

South Asia

The actions taken against former prime minister Imran Khan’s political party in recent months followed a familiar playbook for a disgraced political movement in Pakistan. Khan was jailed on charges that his supporters say were politically motivated, party offices were raided, and its election efforts were ignored by TV networks. – Washington Post

Pakistan’s two main political dynasties reached an agreement late on Tuesday to form a coalition government, ensuring that candidates aligned with former Prime Minister Imran Khan will not take power despite having won the most seats in last week’s election. – New York Times

Once again, India’s capital is bracing itself for a siege. Not by a foreign army but by an army of Indian farmers, streaming toward New Delhi from nearby states to protest government policies. – New York Times

Negotiations on a new government in Pakistan have allayed immediate fears of instability in the nuclear-armed nation following inconclusive elections last week, but the risk of a full-scale economic crisis remains. – Reuters

Sadanand Dhume writes: It seems unlikely that Islamabad will get its act together soon. Over more than seven decades, neither Pakistan’s overbearing military nor its feckless politicians have provided the sustained good governance needed for economic development. Unfortunately, these problems don’t look like they’ll be shrinking any time soon. – Wall Street Journal

Europe

With a war raging nearby and the threat that a second Trump administration could pull the U.S. out of NATO, Europe has ratcheted up military spending. Arms manufacturers are working around-the clock, and new factories are going up to meet demand. – Wall Street Journal

Sweden’s foreign minister said on Wednesday that he expects that Hungary will soon approve the Swedish NATO membership application. – Reuters

The top U.S. official for arms control said on Wednesday she is “very confident” the United States will certify Australia and Britain as eligible for exemptions from export-control regulations under the AUKUS submarine project. – Reuters

Britain wants an “absolute guarantee” that the U.N. Palestinian refugee agency (UNRWA) will not employ staff who are willing to attack Israel, Foreign Secretary David Cameron said on Wednesday, after allegations that some were involved in the Oct. 7 violence. – Reuters

The prime ministers of Spain and Ireland asked the European Commission on Wednesday to urgently review whether Israel is complying with its human rights obligations in Gaza as international pressure grew for Israel to hold off on an assault on the densely-populated southern border city of Rafah. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Albania on Thursday to reaffirm relations with a key partner in the Balkans and an ally in supporting Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s full-scale invasion. – Associated Press

North Macedonia ’s parliament speaker on Wednesday formally set early parliamentary and presidential elections in the spring as the country makes a bid to join the European Union. – Associated Press

Serbia has received another arms delivery from its ally Russia despite international sanctions on Moscow over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. – Associated Press

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said Wednesday that nothing is more important now than strong support for Ukraine as it fights off Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression. – Associated Press

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will visit Germany and France on Friday to hold talks with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Emmanuel Macron as he seeks military support amid the funding fight in Washington. – Bloomberg

Swiss prosecutors say they have a number of preliminary investigations underway into suspected cases of Russian sanctions evasion. – Bloomberg

Germany’s foreign minister will travel to Israel in a bid to convince Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that sending forces into Rafah could create a humanitarian disaster. – Bloomberg

Spain and Ireland on Wednesday asked the European Union to “urgently” examine whether Israel is complying with its human rights obligations in Gaza under an accord linking rights to trade ties. – Agence France-Presse

Latin America

Blessed with fertile farmland and a temperate climate, Argentina once seemed destined to join the developed world. But it’s the sovereign equivalent of a lavishly talented athlete who squanders his gifts. Since 1930, the nation has gyrated between populist fiscal profligacy and chastened retrenchment. Sometimes, as with Juan Perón in the ’70s, it has done both simultaneously. – Wall Street Journal

Of all the government critics, few thought that Rocío San Miguel would be the one to disappear. Ms. San Miguel, 57, has long been one of Venezuela’s best known security experts, a woman who dared investigate her country’s authoritarian government even as others fled. She is also a moderate, has international recognition and appeared to have strong contacts in the secretive world of the Venezuelan military, qualities that her peers thought might protect her. – New York Times

A United Nations-backed expert on food security on Wednesday urged Venezuela’s government to develop a robust plan to address hunger and malnutrition affecting its population, and called for an end to the crippling economic sanctions imposed on the South American country. – Associated Press

Haiti’s government announced Wednesday that it is working on an official agreement with Kenyan officials to secure the long-awaited deployment of a police force from the east African country. – Associated Press

Parker Miller writes: Bukele, whose words also spoke for Ecuador and the other Latin American nations that are joining in the war on crime, effectively gave the middle finger to the decadent and incompetent American leftist establishment. And so do I. – Washington Examiner

Defense

Former president Donald Trump and top advisers have spoken with former Hawaii congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard about foreign policy and how the Defense Department should be run in a second Trump term, according to people familiar with the matter. – Washington Post

Paul M. Nakasone writes: Serving the public in uniform for more than 37 years has been the honor of a lifetime. As head of Cyber Command and the NSA, I urge Congress to reauthorize Section 702, and to do so without imposing new restrictions on how the government can use the vital information it provides. As I saw all too clearly at the Pentagon that morning on 9/11, American lives are at stake. – Washington Post

Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. writes: We are at an inflection point. Americans have died. Our response must be based not on emotion or a desire for revenge but rather on a cleareyed determination about what is best for the United States. I believe it is best to stay the course and to defend our homeland abroad rather than at home. – New York Times