Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Britain says it has for the first time presented evidence that Iran is supplying advanced weapons to the Houthi rebels in Yemen, after finding images of tests conducted at the headquarters of the Revolutionary Guards in Tehran on the hard drive of an unmanned aircraft seized by the Royal Navy. – Associated Press 

An Iranian operation to surveil an Australian citizen was disrupted by security agencies, Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil said, in what she warned was part of a rising tide of foreign interference efforts. – Bloomberg

Organizers at the annual Munich Security Conference have not invited the Iranian government to this year’s event, citing “the current political situation” in the country. – Bloomberg

An Iranian police officer has been reprimanded after he did not enforce the country’s dress code requiring women to cover their hair, local media reported Monday. – Times of Israel

Jonathan Lord and Andrea Kendall-Taylor write: Last year, the Biden administration debuted a National Security Strategy that seeks to marshal the resources of the United States, with those of its partners and allies, to defend the rules-based order. Iran and Russia are prime offenders that have sought to bully their way to greater power and influence through the brutalization of their neighbors. […]Sending Iran’s weapons to Ukraine advances the mission in ways both tangible and symbolic. Washington should move without delay. – Washington Post 

Seth J. Frantzman writes: So, while it wants to be treated like an equal, it may turn out that both China and Russia see Iran as a junior partner. Iran has been exporting drones to Russia, but Russia may not be providing Iran with what it wants in return. These are the issues that will be on the forefront of the Iranian delegations’ minds when they visit this week. – Jerusalem Post 

Suzan Quitaz writes: Molavi Abdolhamid’s statements are a serious challenge for the leaders of the Islamic republic, as he is considered as an important “moderate” voice in Iran not only by Sunnis. As the uprising continues, his messages have become stronger and less appeasing to the central government. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Farzin Nadimi writes: Yet even without more modern aircraft or a larger fleet, Iran’s expensive new underground air bases could give it some degree of aerial first-strike capability against U.S. naval assets in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Arabian Sea, perhaps including efforts to close the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and naval traffic. Building such bases could also spur other countries in the region to add hardened underground facilities to their existing air bases or construct new bases with this capability. – Washington Institute

Israel

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s right-wing government advanced legislation Monday that would overhaul the country’s top court, drawing tens of thousands of Israelis to protest the proposal in front of the Parliament, or Knesset, as workers across the country went on a general strike. – Wall Street Journal

Tens of thousands of Israelis went on strike Monday, protesting outside the Knesset in what they say is a final push to stop Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from weakening the country’s judicial system. – Washington Post 

Israel was not surprised by U.S. opposition to its decision to retroactively authorize nine Jewish settler outposts in the occupied West Bank, a senior Israeli official said on Monday. – Reuters

The United States opposes Israel’s retroactive authorization of Jewish settler outposts in the occupied West Bank, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday, adding that he was “deeply troubled” by the move that came less than two weeks after he raised U.S. opposition to such moves on a trip to the region. – Reuters

Israeli lawmakers traded insults on Monday over government plans to overhaul the judiciary while tens of thousands of protesters gathered outside parliament, as the president warned the country was on the brink of “constitutional collapse”. – Reuters

An Israeli policeman was killed Monday in a stabbing attack carried out by a Palestinian boy in annexed east Jerusalem, police said, triggering a raid on a refugee camp amid a spike in violence. – Agence France-Presse

A flood of international condemnations began pouring in on Monday after Israel announced that its cabinet had approved moving toward legalizing nine wildcat outposts deep in the West Bank, in response to a series of terror attacks in Jerusalem. – Times of Israel 

The White House condemned on Monday the alleged killing of a Palestinian Arab in self-defense by an Israeli resident of Judea and Samaria over the weekend, calling for the claim to be investigated. – Arutz Sheva

IDF, Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) and Israel Border Police apprehended early Monday morning the terrorists suspected of the shooting attack in which the late Staff Sergeant Ido Baruch was murdered. – Arutz Sheva

Benny Avni writes: While some Americans may question Mr. Biden’s commitment to “building consensus” at home, Israelis were divided. On the left, many saw his statement as an ally attempting to help save Israel’s democracy. For the right, the appeal to outside interference in an internal Israeli debate was akin to Bar-Kamtza’s turning to Rome following a dispute among the Jews. – New York Sun

Turkey

Turkish authorities widened a crackdown on those allegedly involved in shoddy construction practices and looting in cities across southern Turkey devastated by last week’s earthquakes, making dozens of new arrests as hopes faded of finding many more survivors in collapsed buildings. – Wall Street Journal

Howard Eissenstat writes:The rescue phase of operations is now coming to close; the possibility of further survivors is becoming increasingly dim. Nonetheless, the challenges facing the Turkish government and its people remain immense, with hundreds of thousands homeless, hungry, and cold and with perhaps tens of thousands still to be recovered and buried. In this first week since the earthquake, the Turkish government has put a priority on public relations, sometimes at the expense of its own citizens’ lives. It has prioritized “narrative” over effective policy, and focused on stifling dissent. This has been its pattern after the 2013 Gezi Protests and the 2016 attempted coup. But those were more purely political crises. To address the current crisis effectively, the Turkish government will have to place policy above politics — and its record for doing so, thus far, has been very weak indeed. – Middle East Institute

M. Murat Kubilay writes: A new IMF loan is not expected and any international relief will only cover the basic needs of people in the region affected by the quakes. Financial assistance from international development banks is necessary; however, their contribution will be limited due to the government’s poor relations with the West and will be gradual and allocated in tranches. The challenges facing Turkey’s economy are myriad and regardless of how the upcoming elections turn out, the road ahead seems likely to be rocky. –  Middle East Institute

China

The White House on Monday said that the three flying objects shot down over U.S. and Canadian airspace since Friday appear to be less sophisticated than the Chinese balloon found earlier this month but that they were targeted when they were found in a widening detection effort and it was determined their altitude could pose a threat to air traffic. – Washington Post 

China’s Foreign Ministry on Monday said the United States has sent at least 10 unsanctioned balloons into Chinese airspace since last year, as the two countries feud over a Chinese airship discovered and shot down by the U.S. military this month. The United States denied the allegation. – Washington Post 

China’s recovery after years of Covid-19 lockdowns will likely look a lot different from previous ones. And for many parts of the world, economists warn, it could be less potent than governments and businesses hope. – Wall Street Journal

Biden administration officials defended on Monday their decisions to shoot down unidentified flying objects over North America this weekend and disputed new claims by Beijing that the U.S. violated Chinese airspace with high-altitude balloons. – Wall Street Journal

Tensions between the United States and China escalated on Monday as the two nations traded fiery accusations over spying programs, in the aftermath of the U.S. downing of a Chinese spy balloon and three unidentified flying objects a week later over North America. – New York Times 

While many in the world see the Chinese spy balloon as a sign of Beijing’s growing aggressiveness, China has sought to cast the controversy as a symptom of the United States’ irrevocable decline. – New York Times  

The United States Navy and Marine Corps are holding joint exercises in the South China Sea at a time of heightened tensions with Beijing over the shooting down of a suspected Chinese spy balloon. – Associated Press 

The White House on Monday denied Beijing’s accusation that the United States has been sending balloons over China to conduct surveillance, as tensions about espionage rise between the two superpowers. – Agence France-Presse 

The United States said on Monday it still did not know the origin or purpose of three aerial objects that its military shot down over the weekend, as Washington and Beijing traded accusations about high-altitude balloons. – Reuters

The U.S. military said on Monday it had recovered critical electronics from the suspected Chinese spy balloon downed by a U.S. fighter jet off South Carolina’s coast on Feb. 4, including key sensors presumably used for intelligence gathering. – Reuters

Just as the United States appears poised to adopt restrictions on outbound investment to China and is increasing forced labor sanctions on western China’s Xinjiang province, a new Chinese initiative could undercut those measures and divide the U.S. from European allies. – The Hill

China’s foreign ministry says the US has flown balloons into its airspace more than 10 times in the past year.It comes after the US on 4 February shot down a suspected spy balloon over its airspace – which China said was one of its weather balloons gone astray. – CNN

As the world’s security elite gathers in Munich this week, they’ll be connecting their mobile phones to Chinese telecoms equipment surrounding the venue. Heads of state, security chiefs, spooks and intelligence officials head to Germany on Friday for their blue-riband annual gathering, the Munich Security Conference. – Politico

There are no U.S. surveillance aircraft in Chinese airspace, White House national security spokesman John Kirby said on Monday, declining to specify when pressed by reporters on whether such aircraft operate in Chinese-claimed areas. – Reuters

Recent incidents regarding balloons shot down by the United States, which suspects they are surveillance balloons from China, form part of a pattern which highlights the need for NATO to be vigilant, said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. – Reuters

House Select Committee on China Chairman Mike Gallagher (R-WI) is contemplating having his panel undergo “wargaming” scenarios of how an invasion of Taiwan would play out. – Washington Examiner

The governor of the Xinjiang region in China has canceled his controversial trip to Paris and Brussels, three people with knowledge of his plan told POLITICO. – Politico

In a column titled “China on the Eve of a Major Battle” Timofei Bordachev, the program director of the Valdai Discussion Club think tank, claimed that the clash between China and the U.S. was now inevitable. What was taking place was merely maneuvering as both sides sought positions of maximum advantage. According to Bordachev, there is no chance for reconciliation between the sides, and the balloon incident highlighted Chinese determination to take on the Americans. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

William J. Broad writes: The silence of balloon experts might explain why no owner of a shot-down object, with the exception of China, is known to have come forward publicly to discuss the incidents or to complain. Not all balloons are used for strict scientific or commercial purposes. A bizarre event happened, Mr. Fetkowitz said, when a customer used one of his company’s balloons to loft a device that played aloud the Pink Floyd album “The Dark Side of the Moon.” Mr. Fetkowitz said a different balloon carried a child’s Thomas the Tank Engine toy to stratospheric heights. “We do vet our customers,” he added. “We’ve turned away people. We don’t want to do business with a guy who wants to send up a gun.” – New York Times 

Scott M. Moore writes: More than anything, the history of the Fu-Go balloons shows that when tensions are as high as they are between the U.S. and China, countries must use people-to-people ties to better ground their rocky relationship — or risk subjecting the world to far greater turbulence. – Politico

Harlan Ullman writes: Other political questions, such as why Blinken postponed his trip, need answers. It would have been appropriate for Biden or Blinken to confront Xi over whether he was aware of these flights and authorized them. All the circumstances surrounding the four events may never be fully known or disclosed. But for each, a comprehensive investigation is essential. And that investigation should begin immediately and be completed as soon as possible, meaning weeks not months or years. The reasons are clear although potentially volatile. From all appearances, the White House and other government agencies seemed unprepared for this first event, though better for the other three. – The Hill

Jeff Moon writes: The United Nations human rights conventions the Americans prodded China into signing resulted in no lasting changes in Chinese human rights practices. But parallel discussions of commercial issues resulted in U.S. agreement to admit China into the World Trade Organization in 2001. So, the Europeans are now where the United States was 25 years ago in the tug-of-war with China over the intersection between business interests and human rights. Caveat emptor. – The Hill

Noah Rothman writes: We don’t know enough about any of the post-February 4 objects to render a judgment about the threat they pose or who, precisely, is doing the threatening. But the West’s reaction to that balloon is instructive. America’s defense posture shifted almost overnight toward enhanced scrutiny of its airspace. Pivoting from the paralytic reaction to the balloon that started it all, the U.S. apparently has no compunction about neutralizing unknown objects before they’ve had the chance to execute their missions, whatever they may be. These events take place against the backdrop of a genuine, sober, and bipartisan assumption among U.S. lawmakers that China’s rise presents a potentially existential threat to the American-led geopolitical order. – Commentary Magazine

Paul Heer writes: This turn of events is especially disturbing because nothing is more urgent and vital to salvaging U.S.-China relations than dialogue aimed at mutual understanding and developing the principles for managing the relationship that Biden and Xi talked about in November. This would be best achieved through some attempt at strategic empathy on both sides, but the rapid escalation of the balloon incident raises serious questions about whether the two sides are still capable of understanding and acknowledging each other’s perspectives, and whether their domestic politics would allow room for that to happen. In the meantime, another crisis could escalate quickly, given the volatility of the environment. Washington and Beijing need to find a way to defuse that possibility. – The National Interest

Rana Foroohar writes: The problem with this economic codependency, says Roach, is that it is inherently reactive. “The slightest disturbance becomes amplified, risking retaliation and a progressive unravelling. China’s balloon triggers a diplomatic response from Blinken that is strikingly reminiscent of cold war 1.0 actions in 1960, when the USSR shot down our U-2 spy plane. That, of course, ushered in the most dangerous phrase of the first cold war, culminating in the Cuban Missile crisis,” he says. “There is no trust in a conflicted codependency, making it hard to put the pieces of a once healthy relationship back together. That leaves the conflicted codependency hyper-vulnerable to flashpoints.” With House of Representatives speaker Kevin McCarthy heading to Taiwan soon, one might wonder if that island nation will be the next Cuba.- Financial Times 

Asia

China’s use of a laser aimed at a Philippine Coast Guard ship in the South China Sea drew a sharp response from the United States on Monday. The action, which the Philippines said temporarily blinded the crew, was “provocative and unsafe,” U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a statement. – Washington Post 

Prime Minister Hun Sen of Cambodia on Sunday ordered the shutdown of the Voice of Democracy, one of the country’s last independent news outlets, intensifying a long-running crackdown on the news media and political opposition as he consolidates his grip on power. – New York Times 

A Taiwan military intelligence officer said the armed forces had not seen any surveillance balloons from China near the island that were similar to the one shot down over the United States. – Reuters

Concerned Vietnam-based exporters are seeking to ensure they comply with a U.S. ban on imported products using raw materials from China’s Xinjiang as lucrative trade in goods like garments and solar panels comes under closer scrutiny in Washington. – Reuters

The United States renewed a warning that it would defend its treaty ally if Filipino forces come under attack in the disputed South China Sea, after a Chinese coast guard ship allegedly hit a Philippine patrol vessel with military-grade laser that briefly blinded some of its crew. – Associated Press

The United States consul general no longer needs to secure China’s approval before meeting officials in the semi-autonomous Chinese city of Hong Kong, after a rule put in place during heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing was relaxed. – Associated Press

Debt-stricken Sri Lanka is fast-tracking efforts to seal a stalled trade pact with Thailand in order to boost trade and tourism, and improve the foreign currency shortage that has led to its worst economic crisis, a government minister said on Tuesday. – Associated Press   

Myanmar’s military government plans to allow people who are “loyal to the nation,” including government employees and retired military personnel, to carry licensed firearms, but they must comply with orders from local authorities to participate in security and law enforcement actions, the military and media reports said. – Associated Press 

India called on China to be willing to take losses on loans to struggling economies, and asked the world’s biggest bilateral creditor to developing countries to avoid taking positions that would block relief for nations such as Zambia and Sri Lanka.  Bloomberg

The International Monetary Fund, World Bank and India will host an inaugural meeting to deal with global debt issues Friday, bringing together creditors including China with borrowing countries to try to hash out solutions for nations with unsustainable debt levels. Bloomberg

Concerned Vietnam-based exporters are seeking to ensure they comply with a U.S. ban on imported products using raw materials from China’s Xinjiang as lucrative trade in goods like garments and solar panels comes under closer scrutiny in Washington. – Reuters

Taiwan has not spotted any surveillance balloons from China in its vicinity, the island’s defence ministry said on Tuesday, as a dispute between China and the United States over spy balloons triggers worries about rising military tensions. – Reuters

Japan plans to bulk-order Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States by March next year as it begins a rapid military build-up, Minister of Defense Yasukazu Hamada said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The United States on Monday called on the Cambodian government to reverse course after it revoked the media license of one of the country’s last independent news outlets. – The Hill

A recent agreement between Indonesia and Vietnam over maritime boundaries in the South China Sea will likely smooth over the occasionally tense relationship between the two South East Asian nations. – Defense News 

Editorial: Sanctions imposed on Myanmar in the wake of the 2021 coup have made little impact on its rulers, who have decades of experience in circumventing restrictions and scant fear of international opprobrium. The risk now is that the regime will use elections planned for this summer to falsely claim legitimacy and convince regional governments to dial back pressure on the armed forces. – Bloomberg

Tsuneo Watanabe writes: Building on the three new strategic documents, the U.S. and Japanese governments announced plans to enhance Japan-U.S. defense cooperation at the 2+2 meeting between their foreign and defense ministers on January 11, 2023, which were endorsed by Prime Minister Kishida and President Biden during their meeting at the White House on January 13. Japan’s decisions on defense strategy will be irreversible based on a realistic change in the public’s perception of the security environment and will also be an important step toward deepening the Japan-U.S. alliance. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Africa

As Wagner fighters play a central role in Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Russian mercenary group is quietly expanding its alliances in Africa, say European officials, penetrating new mineral-rich areas, exploiting the exit of Western powers and creating alliances with local fighters. – Wall Street Journal

A move by Uganda’s government to close the United Nations’ local human rights office has drawn strong criticism from opposition leaders and activists, who say it highlights the country’s worsening record on civil liberties. – Reuters

James Barnett writes: Even in the event of a tight or contested race, the political heavyweights may decide that violence is not in their immediate interest, as when then-President Goodluck Jonathan conceded defeat to Buhari in 2015, declaring, “Nobody’s ambition is worth the blood of any Nigerian,” amid calls from his base and certain political backers to contest the results. Influential figures within the political establishment and broader society could also unite to effectively discourage a candidate from employing violence in challenging any result, which is how the 2011 crisis was eventually resolved. – New Lines Magazine

North America

Biden administration officials defended on Monday their decisions to shoot down unidentified flying objects over North America this weekend and disputed new claims by Beijing that the U.S. violated Chinese airspace with high-altitude balloons. – Wall Street Journal

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Monday that the four aerial objects shot down in recent days, including one over Yukon territory on Saturday, are connected in some way, without elaborating. – Reuters

The U.S. Congress will take a bipartisan look at unidentified aerial objects that have made their way into U.S. and Canadian airspace, and why they were not found sooner, the Democratic leader of the U.S. Senate said on Monday. – Reuters

Defense

Amid a baffling series of incidents in which the U.S. has shot down three unidentified flying objects, the White House said Monday it would create a team expected to study airborne objects and the potential security and safety risks they pose. – Wall Street Journal

American military and civilian agencies have flown balloons over the U.S. for a growing range of national-security applications, scientific research, intelligence collection and commercial uses, according to industry experts, former officials and government documents. – Wall Street Journal

The system of radars, sensors and other intelligence tools overseen by the North American Aerospace Defense Command, or Norad, didn’t detect the suspected Chinese spy balloon shot down off South Carolina on Feb. 4, but it has been busy ever since. – Wall Street Journal

The Naval Postgraduate School and wireless specialist Qualcomm Technologies inked a cooperative research agreement to explore 5G, artificial intelligence and cloud computing, some of the U.S. Defense Department’s most pressing priorities. – Defense News 

Physical presence by allied navies and coast guards is increasingly important as Russia builds up its military presence and China’s expands its intentions beyond commerce in the waters of the High North, senior maritime officers from three countries and a National Security Council official agreed last week. – USNI News