Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Russia’s top diplomat at the Iran nuclear talks in Vienna said world powers had made “significant progress” as their negotiations to revive a landmark 2015 agreement enter their final stage. – Bloomberg 

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman said on Monday that a prisoner swap with the United States was on the agenda in parallel with the nuclear talks in Vienna. – Reuters 

Iran nuclear talks in Vienna have not reached a dead end, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman said on Monday during a news conference in Tehran. – Reuters 

A senior Iranian security official said on Monday that progress in talks to salvage Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal was becoming “more difficult” as Western powers only “pretended” to come up with initiatives. – Reuters 

Hardline Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said on Friday Tehran “never” pins hope on ongoing talks in Vienna aimed at reviving the country’s 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers. – Reuters 

China encouraged Iran to respond to an American proposal, in a rare statement by the Chinese representative to the nuclear talks in Vienna. – Jerusalem Post 

Tens of thousands of Iranians on motorcycles and in cars celebrated the 43rd anniversary of the Islamic Revolution on Friday, Ynet reported. – Jerusalem Post 

A senior Iranian security official said on Sunday that progress in talks to salvage the 2015 nuclear deal was becoming “more difficult” and accused Western powers of “pretending” to come up with initiatives. – Arutz Sheva 

Iran’s former parliament speaker Ali Larijani, who was barred from running for president in 2021, has warned that the Islamic Republic faces decline and collapse. – Iran International 

U.S. military veterans and their families called on the Biden administration Thursday not to release frozen funds to Iran as part of nuclear negotiations until U.S. victims of terrorist attacks carried out by the Tehran regime or its proxies are compensated. – NBC 

For literature lovers in sanction-hit Iran, a new novel has long provided a brief respite from a grinding economic crisis triggered by international pressure imposed over Tehran’s contested nuclear programme. – Agence France-Presse 

Alon Pinkas writes: In a matter of weeks or months, Joe Biden may face the perfect foreign policy storm: three crises in three places of strategic importance – Europe, the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East. If all goes badly, this convergence may generate tectonic shifts in the international system. If managed competently, it could reassert American supremacy, even if temporarily. – Haaretz  

Farzin Nadimi writes: While the peaceful use of space should be the right of any nation—with the Iranian people and scientific community no exception—the ideological Islamist regime in Tehran should not be trusted with a hedging strategy to hide its true intentions, reinforced by sensitive technologies that could benefit its worrisome missile and drone programs, with further destabilizing effects on the Middle East and beyond. – Washington Institute 

Adam Hoffman writes: While a nuclear deal between the US, other world powers and Iran seems almost certain at this point, the stakes for an unchecked nuclear Iran are higher than ever. If Israel feels compelled to act alone to stop a nuclear Iran, a completely different geopolitical reality could emerge in the Middle East. A simulation examining what happens when Israel strikes Iran, featuring some of the world’s top Iran and Middle East experts, gives us a look at the year after such a development. Such a strike would impact Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China and the United States – but also Israel’s regional position. – Jerusalem Post 

Yaakov Katz writes: But the same will be true about Bennett and Lapid. They, too, will be judged by the end result. A bad deal with Iran, if reached, is now also going to become part of their legacy. – Jerusalem Post 

Turkey

The leaders of six opposition parties in Turkey met on Saturday to strategize about the future of the country’s governing system — a move aimed to unseat the country’s longtime president accused of holding power through increasingly dictatorial means. – Associated Press 

A Turkish prosecutor’s office demanded 11 years in jail for a prominent journalist on charges of insulting President Tayyip Erdogan and two ministers in his cabinet, Turkish news agencies reported on Friday. – Reuters 

The Mossad spy agency has helped foil 12 plots to carry out terror attacks on Israelis in Turkey over the past two years. – Times of Israel 

A wave of protests has spread across Turkey over whopping electricity price hikes last month as millions struggle to pay the ballooning bills and many businesses face the threat of going broke amid already galloping inflation. – Al-Monitor 

Yonah Jeremy Bob writes: As the sides near a jump in engagement next month, Jerusalem is making it clear to Erdogan that whatever the Jewish state has to gain by smoothing over some of the disagreements, Ankara has even more to gain – and in the areas that matter most. – Jerusalem Post 

Iraq

A drone attack was intercepted as it targeted US-led Coalition forces in northern Iraq, according to reports over the weekend. According to reports in Iraq the drones were targeting the Harir base in Iraq. Meanwhile, France 24 reported that “the Saudi-led coalition fighting Iran-backed rebels in Yemen destroyed a communications system on Monday used for drone attacks and located near the telecoms ministry in Sanaa, it said in a statement.”  Last October, reports online predicted that Iran might attack the Harir base in Iraq. – Jerusalem Post 

Iraq’s Supreme Federal Court has ruled that former foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari is not eligible to run for the presidency amid corruption allegations, the state news agency reported on Sunday, a move that prolongs a political standoff. – Jerusalem Post 

Iraq’s military is seeking several defense systems of different origins, including French Rafale fighter jets, drones and artillery, as well as Russian T-90 tanks, with some ongoing negotiations reaching an advanced stage. – Defense News 

Yemen

Expanded missile attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels have fueled support among some U.S. and Middle Eastern officials for placing them back on a U.S. terrorist blacklist, a year after the Biden administration ended that designation on humanitarian grounds. – Washington Post  

Five United Nations staff have been abducted in southern Yemen while returning to Aden after a field mission, the United Nations said on Saturday. – Reuters 

The Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen on Sunday night asked civilians in Yemeni ministries in the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa to immediately evacuate, Reuters reported, citing Saudi state news agency SPA. – Arutz Sheva 

Korean Peninsula

The U.S., Japan and South Korea will strengthen their joint efforts to deter North Korea’s missile activity and nuclear ambitions, while continuing to push for diplomatic engagement with Pyongyang, the allies’ senior diplomats said Saturday. – Wall Street Journal 

U.S. President Joe Biden announced on Friday he intends to nominate Philip Goldberg, a career diplomat and a former North Korea sanctions enforcer, as ambassador to South Korea, a White House statement said. – Reuters 

Chinese and South Korean short-track speedskating fans are duking it out online over allegations of foul play, tapping into the historical rivalry between their countries. – Associated Press 

South Asia

A mob lynched a man because he had allegedly burnt pages of Muslim holy book the Koran in central Pakistan and dozens of people have been arrested, police and officials said on Sunday. – Reuters 

Ayesha Imthiaz, a devout Indian Muslim who considers wearing a hijab an expression of devotion to the Prophet Mohammad, says a move by her college to expel hijab-wearing girls is an insult that will force her to choose between religion and education. – Reuters 

Hundreds of Hindu nationalist protesters marched in the Indian state of Gujarat on Saturday, prompting the closure of stores owned by several multinational companies caught up in a furore over social media posts supporting disputed Kashmir. – Reuters 

From Russia to North Korea to Zimbabwe, the impact of diplomatic sanctions has long been questioned. But Bangladeshi activists have no doubts: extrajudicial killings have suddenly stopped since punitive US measures were imposed two months ago, they say. – Agence France-Presse 

Russia

Some residents of Kursk, including those who volunteered to fight alongside pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas eight years ago, are ready to take up arms in case of war, eager to defend Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine against what the Kremlin says is the threat of persecution. – Wall Street Journal 

Russia’s enormous military buildup near Ukraine features some of its most potent weapon systems and provides the Kremlin with the means to attack Ukrainian forces from multiple directions, which likely would overstretch their defenses. – Wall Street Journal 

U.S. officials are warning that Russia could be about to attack Ukraine. For many citizens in this embattled country, the assault has already begun. Ukrainian officials say that Russia, which has positioned more than 100,000 troops around three sides of Ukraine, is stepping up a destabilization campaign involving cyberattacks, economic disruption and a new tactic: hundreds of fake bomb threats. – Wall Street Journal  

President Biden warned President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia that invading Ukraine would result in “swift and severe” costs to Russia diminishing his country’s standing and cause “widespread human suffering” the White House said on Saturday as Western officials made a forceful diplomatic push to dissuade Mr. Putin from pressing forward with an attack. – New York Times 

After decades of getting schooled in information warfare by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, the United States is trying to beat the master at his own game. – New York Times 

Despite a recent uptick in bilateral dialogue, relations between Moscow and Washington are “lying on the floor”, the Kremlin told Russia’s RIA news agency, amid Western objections to ongoing major Russian military drills near its borders with Ukraine. – Reuters 

U.S. and European officials are finalizing an extensive package of sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine that targets major Russian banks, but does not include banning Russia from the SWIFT financial system, according to U.S. and European officials. – Reuters  

The Biden administration is closely eyeing a potential false flag operation or other pretext for Russia to invade Ukraine, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Sunday. – Politico 

The Pentagon says there is “no truth” to a claim by the Russian Defense Ministry that an American nuclear-powered submarine entered Russian territorial waters near the Kurile Islands. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

Sen. Lindsey Graham warned on Sunday that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would destroy US-Russian relations for years to come. – Business Insider 

An upcoming Russian naval exercise has Ukraine worried, as the United States predicts a Russian invasion of the country could come any day. – USNI News 

David Ignatius writes: The world will shudder if the tank and missile assault begins, as we witness a weak country confronting a blitzkrieg, alone. The cries for a negotiated settlement will increase, with some proposing new concessions to placate Putin. But after that global shock will come a wave of rage and a demand that Russia pay a price for its aggression. Then this war will enter the porcupine phase, in which Putin, too, will feel the pain. – Washington Post 

Gideon Rachman writes: That kind of extreme, irrational scepticism is a weak base on which to build a consensus for a western policy response that is likely to be expensive and dangerous. Unfortunately Putin has plenty to work with, as he tries to exploit the weaknesses of the west. – Financial Times 

Joshua C. Huminski writes: Right now, we do not know what Putin’s intentions are and to suggest otherwise is pure fantasy. We do not know what Moscow will do and, as such, we do not know how the West will respond. It is, however, important to think through what could happen and what could happen next. Planning and preparation are not assumptions that any specific outcome will occur, but are prudent measures in advance of any crisis. We do not want to find ourselves unprepared for Russia’s response and fall into an escalatory trap. – The Hill 

Anne Applebaum writes: Now we are on the brink of what could be a catastrophic conflict. American, British, and European embassies in Ukraine are evacuating; citizens have been warned to leave. But this terrible moment represents not just a failure of diplomacy; it also reflects a failure of the Western imagination, a generation-long refusal, on the part of diplomats, politicians, journalists, and intellectuals, to understand what kind of state Russia was becoming and to prepare accordingly. We have refused to see the representatives of this state for what they are. We have refused to speak to them in a way that might have mattered. Now it might be too late. – The Atlantic 

Hanna Notte and Sarah Bidgood write: Despite deep discord between the United States and Russia — which long precedes the standoff on Ukraine’s border — their interests continue to align on many items on the nonproliferation and disarmament agenda. Particularly as tensions rise, Moscow and Washington should prioritize those areas where walling off nuclear diplomacy seems to be most possible, such as the restoration of the Iranian nuclear deal, while pursuing nuclear risk reduction as a matter of urgency and ensuring that the upcoming review conference on the Treaty on Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons is not hijacked by issues attendant to the current confrontation. – War on the Rocks 

Nikolas K. Gvosdev writes: The Syria campaign, however, would suggest that if the Russian government decides to use military force against Ukraine, it would focus on long-distance strikes to destroy Ukrainian equipment, particularly its stockpiles of drones, and try to break up organized military formations. The Syria case also suggests that the Russians would try to avoid having people cross the border, whenever possible, and direct fire from across the line. – The National Interest 

 Janko Šćepanović writes: But there are also those who are more skeptical about Russia’s regional strategy. Some scholars view it primarily as an extension of Russia’s obsessive need to compete with the United States and hinder Washington’s activities in the region, even at the cost of becoming a spoiler. Others question the actual extent of Russia’s ability to influence events, even in places like Syria where Moscow is entrenched. Nonetheless, to Israel, Moscow can still be a valuable partner, given that it has open communication with Iran and perhaps even an ability to influence or restrain some of the latter’s activities. – The National Interest 

Africa

French troops killed 40 militants on the Benin-Burkina Faso border in West Africa’s Sahel region, the French government said on Saturday. – Reuters 

Western foreign ministers will hold crunch talks on their countries’ future presence fighting Islamist militants in Mali on Monday, four European sources said, with three saying regional and international leaders will also meet on Wednesday. – Reuters 

Sudan’s military leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan on Saturday dismissed Western threats of sanctions and said meetings between Sudanese and Israeli officials were part of security cooperation rather than political in nature. – Reuters 

Cybersecurity

President Joe Biden couldn’t have been more blunt about the risks of cyberattacks spinning out of control. “If we end up in a war, a real shooting war with a major power, it’s going to be as a consequence of a cyber breach of great consequence,” he told his intelligence brain trust in July. – Associated Press 

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has issued a “Shields Up” alert for American organizations saying that U.S. systems could face Russian cyberattacks amid warnings from Biden administration officials that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could be imminent. – The Hill 

Viktor Zhora proudly showed off the new facilities at one of Ukraine’s cyber security agencies, where opposing teams stage mock battles to prepare for the real thing. – Financial Times 

Some data belonging to Americans was swept up in a secret CIA mass surveillance program that operated under atypical legal authority for such an operation, according to a letter released Thursday night by two Democratic members of the Senate Intelligence Committee. – CyberScoop