Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Rafah, on Gaza’s southern edge, is now a city of tents, and the epicenter of one of the worst humanitarian disasters in years. Yet a deadly mix of war, politics and logistics is choking off emergency aid, and the scale of suffering has raised international pressure on Israel ahead of an anticipated offensive. – Wall Street Journal

Israel is proposing the creation of sprawling tent cities in Gaza as part of an evacuation plan to be funded by the U.S. and its Arab Gulf partners ahead of an impending invasion of a city in the strip’s south which Israel says is the last bastion of Hamas. – Wall Street Journal

Palestinians in the city of Rafah, on the Gaza Strip’s border with Egypt, awoke Monday to the sound of explosions. It was 1:50 a.m., but it looked like daytime outside. – Wall Street Journal

The Israeli strikes that lit up the night in Gaza’s southern city of Rafah on Monday sent pulses of fear through the 1.4 million Palestinians for whom that strip of land has become a shelter of last resort. – Washington Post

The head of the U.N. agency that delivers most aid to people in Gaza expressed guarded optimism Monday that the European Union will provide it with a vital financial lifeline in coming weeks, although divisions within the EU threaten to derail the move. – Associated Press

US President Joe Biden said he’s pushing for a six-week pause in fighting between Israel and Hamas to allow for the release of hostages, saying those conditions could lay the groundwork for broader peace. – Bloomberg

Israeli airstrikes in Rafah should not affect negotiations toward a deal between Israel and Palestinian militants Hamas on the release of hostages, a U.S. official said on Monday, ahead of expected further talks between spy chiefs in Egypt. – Reuters

Canada on Monday joined those urging Israel not to mount a ground invasion against Gaza’s southern Rafah neighborhood, saying such an attack would be devastating for Palestinians. – Reuters

Israel should stop and think seriously before taking any further action in Rafah, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said on Monday, after airstrikes in the southern Gaza city that is the last refuge of about a million displaced civilians. – Reuters

International Criminal Court prosecutor Karim Khan said on Monday he was deeply concerned about reports of bombardment and potential ground incursion by Israeli forces in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. – Reuters

While President Joe Biden has reportedly been calling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an “asshole” behind the scenes for refusing to change Israel’s military tactics, Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz publicly threw his support behind expanding IDF maneuvers in the southern Gaza city of Rafah on Monday, despite the president’s public concerns over such an operation. – Jewish Insider

Will Monday morning’s daring military operation at Rafah, where two Israeli hostages were rescued, change the dynamics of negotiations over the release of 134 hostages taken by Hamas on October 7 who remain in various Gaza dungeons? – New York Sun

Police officers caught a group of illegal residents “red handed” stealing weapons from a military base in the south of the country and arrested them, Israeli Police reported on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu selected Ofir Akunis, a minister in his Likud party, as the next consul general in New York. – Jerusalem Post

A commander and two soldiers were killed fighting Hamas in the southern Gaza Strip, the military said Tuesday as Israel’s war against the terror group stretched into its 130th day with fresh truce talks on the horizon amid a looming push into the southern Gazan city of Rafah. – Times of Israel

Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said Monday that Cairo is committed to upholding its peace treaty with Israel, amid reports in recent days that the agreement may be in jeopardy if the military proceeds with an offensive on the Gazan city of Rafah, abutting the border with Egypt. – Times of Israel

Following US pressure, Israel will be sending a delegation to Cairo on Tuesday for talks on a framework that will see the release of hostages and achieve an extended pause, according to Hebrew media reports. – Agence France-Presse

The IDF on Tuesday said that three of its force were killed from an explosive device placed in a building, in the fighting in Khan Younis. They were all members of the reserves. – Ynet

The Be’er Sheva District Court on Monday lifted a gag order on an indictment against an Israeli man who pretended to be a military intelligence officer during the early days of the war in Gaza, thereby became privy to classified information. – Haaretz

Editorial: Trump’s invitation to attack those nations who are letting the West down was outrageous and strategically incontinent. But he spoke an underlying truth that European allies need to understand: they are destroying NATO because they refuse to do their duty to it. They need to understand their own outrages as well as Trump’s. – Washington Examiner

Hillel Portugais de Almeida writes: To regain its credibility and legitimacy, the UN must distance itself from political and ideological influences that compromise its objectivity and reevaluate its control and accountability mechanisms. The current situation demands deep introspection from the UN. – Ynet

Barry Shaw writes: An early example was the murder of Jews who collectively farmed their land at Tel Hai in the northern Galilee in pre-state Palestine, then a barren district of a failing Ottoman Empire. Marauding Arab gangs repeatedly attacked the fortress in which the Jewish farmers lived until returning in greater force to kill and steal whatever they could find. – Arutz Sheva

Dr. Rafael Medoff writes: Another secretary of state with a fondness for curse words—at least when Israel and Jews were the subject—was James Baker, who served under George H.W. Bush. When Housing Secretary Jack Kemp noted Jewish concerns about Baker’s pressure on Israel, the secretary of state infamously replied, “F— the Jews, they don’t vote for us anyway.” Kemp leaked the quote to former New York City mayor Ed Koch, who publicized it in his syndicated column. – Artuz Sheva

Jonathan Lipow writes: In such a scenario, the PLO will inevitably lose control of the Palestinian Authority. Hamas might simply seize the PA through military action. More likely, however, the craven and feeble leadership of the Authority would attempt to appease Hamas, leading to a situation where the PLO remains nominally in charge while in reality it would merely be a puppet with Hamas pulling the strings. Needless to say, such an outcome would be a disaster – for Israel, for the Palestinians, for the region, and for the world at large. – Times of Israel

John Spencer writes: Ultimately, comparisons with both past and modern cases highlight the fact that there is almost no way to defeat an entrenched enemy defender without destruction, even while implementing all feasible precautions and limits on the use of force required by the laws of war. Let’s put away our military history books. There is no comparison to what Israel has faced in Gaza—certainly none by which Israel comes out looking the worse. – Newsweek

Russia & Ukraine

Yevheniya Synelnyk hadn’t heard from her brother, Artem, since a 30-second phone call shortly after he was taken into Russian captivity 18 months ago. So when Russian officials said a plane with 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war had been shot down late last month, she was gripped with fear. Could Artem have been on board? – Wall Street Journal

A bipartisan coalition of senators on Monday night pushed a $95 billion foreign aid package for Ukraine and Israel to the brink of passage, as Republicans fractured bitterly over the bill, with opponents threatening to fight it until the very end. – New York Times 

Russia accused the West on Monday of sabotaging agreements that would have prevented the war in Ukraine – but the U.S. and its allies put the blame squarely on Moscow, saying there is no escaping that President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of its smaller neighbor. – Associated Press

The governments of Poland, France and Germany vowed Monday to make Europe a security and defense power with a greater ability to back Ukraine, amid concerns that former U.S. President Donald Trump might return to the White House and allow Russia to expand its aggression on the continent. – Associated Press 

Russia attacked the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro with missiles and drones on Tuesday, damaging a power plant and cutting off water supplies to some residents, Ukrainian officials and media said. – Reuters

Russian forces are buying Starlink internet terminals in “Arab countries” for use on the battlefield, Ukraine’s military intelligence said on Tuesday. – Reuters

A preliminary analysis concluded that Russia hit Kyiv last week with the hypersonic Zircon missile, its first use in the nearly two-year-old war, the head of a Kyiv research institute said on Monday, presenting a new challenge to Ukraine’s air defences. – Reuters

Exchange operator Nasdaq (NDAQ.O), opens new tab on Monday signed a partnership agreement with the Ukrainian government aimed at supporting the development of Ukrainian capital markets, Nasdaq and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) said. – Reuters

Russia on Monday imposed sanctions on 18 British citizens including a number of top academics and Russia experts for what Moscow said was an attempt to demonise Russia and fan the war in Ukraine. – Reuters

Volodymyr Zelenskiy is planning a tour of Western European capitals around this week’s Munich Security Conference, according to people with knowledge of the matter, as the Ukrainian president seeks military support amid the funding fight in Washington. – Bloomberg

Elon Musk told US Republican senators “there is no way in hell” that Russian President Vladimir Putin could lose the war on Ukraine, weighing in on a conflict that has been affected by Musk’s own Starlink satellite services. – Bloomberg

An energy facility was severely damaged in the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro early on Wednesday in a Russian drone attack, and water and power supply was cut off in several districts. – Bloomberg

Lucja Swiatkowski Cannon writes: Thus, Zelensky made the decision to dismiss Zaluzhny against the consensus in the Ukrainian military and society that the general has the right skills and concept of strategy to get the best results for Ukraine. Zelensky’s choice might have worsened the situation and damaged his political credibility. – Washington Examiner

Iraq

Iraq is committed to OPEC decisions and after its second voluntary cut announced in December it is also committed to producing no more than 4 million barrels per day (bpd), oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani told reporters on Monday. – Reuters

The Iraqi ambassador to Iran, Nasir Abdul Mohsen, is set to return to Tehran “within the next few hours” to resume his duties. This move comes after approximately a month since Baghdad summoned him following the missile attacks carried out by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on Erbil, the capital city of the Iraqi Kurdistan region. – The New Arab

Several of Iraq’s powerful armed groups have told Sky News in rare interviews that they will continue attacks against US forces based in Iraq and the region for what they see as America’s support of the Israeli bombardment of Gaza.  – Sky News

Michael Knights, Ameer al-Kaabi, and Hamdi Malik write: Dulaymi is viewed as the closest political advisor to Khazali, a U.S.-designated terrorist leader. He is also AAH’s most successful political experiment. For instance, shortly before his new appointment, he served as AAH’s representative on the small group of Coordination Framework factions that negotiated the carve-up of over 2,000 corrupt applications intended to be fast-tracked into the elite Counter Terrorism Service (aka the Counter Terrorism Command and Iraqi Special Operations Forces). – Washington Institute

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia’s U-turn on its oil capacity expansion plans was because of the energy transition, its energy minister said on Monday, adding that the kingdom has plenty of spare capacity to cushion the oil market. – Reuters 

The soon-to-open BAPS Hindu Mandir signals how far the United Arab Emirates has come in acknowledging the different faiths of its expatriate community, long dominated by Indians across construction sites and boardrooms. The temple nods back in its seven spires, the number of sheikhdoms in this autocratic federation on the Arabian Peninsula.- Associated Press

Declaring that “every innocent life lost in Gaza is a tragedy,” President Joe Biden welcomed Jordan’s King Abdullah II to the White House Monday for talks on how to end the months-long war and plan for what comes afterward. – Associated Press

French President Emmanuel Macron named the former head of gas utility Engie (ENGIE.PA), opens new tab as its special envoy to a multinational rail and ports project linking the Middle East and South Asia tipped as an alternative to China’s Belt and Road initiative. – Reuters

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis fired two missiles on Monday at an Iran-bound cargo ship in the Red Sea, causing minor damage to the vessel but no injuries, U.S. military officials said. – Reuters

Mary Beth Long writes: Finally, Yemen’s militants have nothing to offer Iran’s allies like Russia, Syria, Libya, China, and North Korea. None of these has any interest in paying a public price for supporting a global supply chain breakdown due to Iran’s continued impeding of the Red Sea through the Yemeni rebels. At a minimum, pressure on Iran to withdraw all its personnel and support to the insurgents could be a start. Left alone, even with transferred technology and know-how, the Houthis would likely be hard-pressed to continue their current pace of air assaults, and that may allow at least some measure of security to be restored. – The National Interest

South Asia

Human Rights Watch said Monday that Afghanistan’s public health system has been hit hard following a sharp reduction in foreign assistance, coupled with serious Taliban abuses against women and girls, jeopardizing the right to healthcare of millions of Afghans. – Associated Press

Allies of imprisoned ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan won the most seats in the lower house of parliament in the elections last Thursday. It was a shock outcome given the obstacles: His Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party could hold no campaign rallies, had no polling agents on election day and faced internet restrictions. They won 93 out of 265 National Assembly seats. It’s not enough to form a government, however. – Associated Press

Pakistan’s elections last week returned a hung parliament, with no party getting enough seats in the National Assembly to form a government by itself. – Reuters

Walter Russell Mead writes: Mr. Modi and his cabinet understand how closely Indian and American interests converge. They are asking whether Washington can still summon the intellectual coherence and political energy to do what needs to be done. It is a question many of America’s friends are asking. I wish I knew the answer. – Wall Street Journal

Europe

The leaders of Germany and Denmark joined in a ground-breaking ceremony for a new ammunition factory on Monday, underlining Europe’s efforts to ramp up its weapons production as Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on. – Associated Press

Donald Trump, the front-runner in the U.S. for the Republican Party’s nomination this year, says he once warned that he would allow Russia to do whatever it wants to NATO member nations that are “delinquent” in devoting 2% of their gross domestic product to defense. – Associated Press

Britain’s opposition Labour Party on Monday disowned an election candidate who claimed that Israel allowed Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack to happen as a pretext to invade Gaza. – Associated Press

France condemned “hostile” disinformation maneuvers after the country’s authorities on Monday accused Russia of operating a long-running online manipulation campaign against Ukraine’s Western backers, in the lead up to the second anniversary of Moscow’s military invasion of its neighbor. – Associated Press

The European Union won’t serve its own best interests if it doesn’t consider designating some parts of Syria as safe zones so refugees and migrants can return there, the president of Cyprus said Monday. – Associated Press

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Monday that any relativization of NATO’s mutual defence clause was “dangerous” and only served Russia, following comments by former U.S. President Donald Trump questioning the alliance’s key provision. – Reuters

France, Poland and Germany accused Russia on Monday of putting together an elaborate network of websites to spread pro-Russian propaganda to undermine their governments, warning of a mass spread of such content ahead of EU elections in June. – Reuters

Kyiv urged Warsaw on Monday to “hold to account” Polish farmers for stopping three trucks at a border crossing between Poland and Ukraine and spilling the Ukrainian grain they were carrying. – Reuters

A Dutch court on Monday ordered the government to block all exports of F-35 fighter jet parts to Israel over concerns they were being used to violate international law during the war in Gaza. – Reuters

The EU adopted a law to set aside windfall profits made on frozen Russian central bank assets, it said on Monday, in a first concrete step towards the bloc’s aim of using the money to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine. – Reuters

Faced with stubbornly high Russian gas imports as the war in Ukraine rages on, Austria is seeking to take more radical steps, including ending energy company OMV’s long-term contract to buy gas from Gazprom, Austria’s energy minister said on Monday. – Reuters

Foucault and his fellow protesters are restless, their list of grievances long: soaring costs, increasing bureaucracy, new European Union regulations in its Green Deal and imports diluting their markets. “He who sows misery reaps anger,” says one of their placards. – Bloomberg

Transatlantic ties are essential and will prevail irrespective of November’s US presidential election results, according to German Finance Minister Christian Lindner. – Bloomberg

In one fell swoop over the weekend, Donald Trump freed Europe from the confines of the American security bubble. – Politico

EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell on Monday called on the international community, and particularly the U.S., to stop providing arms to Israel in light of the growing number of civilians being killed in Gaza. – Politico

Royal Navy carrier HMS Prince of Wales (R09) departed its Portsmouth home port on Monday to participate in a massive NATO exercise in place of carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth (R09), which was sidelined for repairs. – USNI News

Dalibor Rohac writes: Because of Slovakia’s pliability, it is unlikely that the country will become a major liability for the EU or for the Western alliance. Nevertheless, without a compelling story about the purpose and significance of Slovakia’s statehood, and a clear geopolitical and moral compass, Slovakia’s future might lie simply in a lingering passively on the periphery of the Western world. That would be a shame. – American Purpose

Olga Lautman writes: A possible future President’s ongoing affection for Russia and his disruptive actions on the international stage, coupled with the media’s disproportionate focus on trivial matters, should worry us all. Trump continues to interfere with and disrupt the administration’s foreign policy. His outrageous statements and actions warrant a far greater danger than Biden’s age. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Krista Viksnins writes: With the US’s focus on domestic politics and the 2024 presidential election, Europe and the Baltics cannot wait for Washington’s leadership when it comes to Ukraine. So the continent must ensure it offers a clear and united voice. Russia as the aggressor must understand that the West is not fatigued by the war, despite ongoing distractions like elections. The issue is just too important for the continent to fail. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Pekka Virkki writes: Should this happen, the US would lose its most important ally, biggest trading partner, and likely ally in the century-defining struggle with China. Surely an under-gunned Europe and an inward-looking America can agree that this outcome makes no sense whatsoever. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Michael Peck writes: That’s not an impossible goal, and a European fighter is not a silly idea to those who don’t want to be totally dependent on American-made aircraft. The question is what Europe should be focusing on right now. Given the implications for European security of a Russian defeat of Ukraine, artillery shells this year are more important than jet fighters in 2040. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Amy Mackinnon and Jack Detsch write: NATO can only enforce Article 5, the alliance’s self-defense clause, if all 31 nations agree to do it—even if they’re not contributing troops. If Russia were to test Article 5, the fear is that a prospective President Trump could leave allies guessing about whether or not the United States would come to their aid. – Foreign Policy

The Americas

The whereabouts of a prominent human rights attorney, her daughter and ex-husband remained unknown Monday, three days after Venezuelan authorities detained her at the airport near the capital as she and her adult child awaited a flight to Miami, setting off condemnation inside and outside the South American country. – Associated Press

Trinidad and Tobago’s prime minister said a large oil spill near the twin-island nation in the eastern Caribbean has caused a “national emergency” as crews struggled to contain the oil already coating numerous beaches on Tobago’s southwest coast. – Associated Press

Police raids on former President Jair Bolsonaro and his associates for allegedly plotting a coup after the 2022 election has weakened right-wing opposition to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of October’s local elections, analysts say. – Reuters

Cybersecurity

The Australian government said on Tuesday it will outlaw doxxing — the malicious release online of personal or identifying information without the subject’s permission — after pro-Palestinian activists published personal details of hundreds of Jewish people in Australia. – Associated Press

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency on Monday released the 2024 priorities for the Joint Cyber Defense Collaborative, an operational-focused government and private collaborative which has faced recent criticism. – CyberScoop