Fdd's overnight brief

Syria

Syrian fighters backed by artillery fire from a US-led coalition battled a fierce jihadist counteroffensive as they pushed to retake a last morsel of territory from the Islamic State group in an assault lasting days. – Agence France-Presse

An Israeli drone fired four missiles near a demolished hospital and an army observation post in Syria’s southern Quneitra province near the border with Israel, but there had been only material damage, the Syrian army said on Monday. – Reuters

Two French women who fled the Islamic State group’s last pocket in Syria told AFP on Monday more foreigners were trapped inside, barred from leaving by Iraqi jihadists. – Agence France-Presse

Islamic State group militants cornered in their last foothold in eastern Syria fought back with suicide car bombs, snipers and booby traps Monday, slowing Kurdish fighters advancing under the cover of U.S.-led coalition airstrikes, Kurdish news agencies and a Syrian war monitor said. – Time

The United States is likely just weeks away from starting the withdrawal of ground troops from Syria ordered by President Donald Trump, the top commander overseeing American forces in the Middle East said on Sunday. – Reuters

An Indonesian militant who appeared on an Islamic State propaganda video showing the execution of a hostage and was said to be close to the militant group’s leader was killed in Syria last month, an Indonesian police spokesman and his brother said. – Reuters

Middle East & North Africa

Turkish courts are just weeks from concluding some 300 mass trials intended to draw a line under the most traumatic event of Turkey’s recent history: the failed 2016 coup that killed 251 people, mostly civilians, and wounded more than 2,000. – New York Times

The United Nations is seeking urgent access to a massive supply of grain at risk of rotting in silos in the besieged Yemeni port city of Hodeidah, as it mediates a resolution to the nearly four-year conflict that has pushed millions to the brink of starvation. – Wall Street Journal

A top Saudi official who was fired after being accused of playing a role in the killing of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi continues to serve as an informal royal adviser, and the U.S. is pressing the kingdom behind the scenes to hold him accountable, according to U.S. and Saudi officials. – Wall Street Journal

The Trump administration threatened on Monday to veto an effort in the U.S. Congress to end U.S. military support for the Saudi Arabia-led coalition in the war in Yemen, continuing a stand-off with lawmakers over policy toward the kingdom. – Reuters

Eastern Libyan military forces have full control of Libya’s biggest oilfield, El Sharara, a spokesman said, in a challenge to the internationally recognized government in Tripoli. – Reuters

Lebanon said Monday it will not take part in a Middle East conference in Poland this week that is widely seen as an effort to isolate Iran. – Associated Press

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will fly to Warsaw on Tuesday to attend a conference on the Middle East co-hosted by Poland and the U.S. State Department. – Haaretz

Turkey ordered the arrest of 1,112 people over suspected links to the network of U.S.-based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen, who is accused of orchestrating an attempted coup in 2016, broadcaster CNN Turk reported on Tuesday. – Reuters

Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan arrived in Baghdad on Tuesday for an unannounced trip that he said would emphasize the importance of Iraqi sovereignty and broach the issue of the future of U.S. troops there. – Reuters

Karen Elliott House writes: This is the winter of Mohammed bin Salman’s discontent. The young crown prince is beset on all sides by problems that would depress or deter most leaders, but there is no sign that his optimism or energy are flagging. Whether sheer determination will be enough to secure his success, however, seems more in doubt than ever. – Wall Street Journal

Eli Lake writes: The government of Turkey is facing a choice. Will it defend itself in court against a civil lawsuit that alleges Turkey’s president ordered his bodyguards to beat protesters nearly two years ago on a state visit to Washington? Or will it continue to ignore the case? A decision is due this week. – Bloomberg

Gevera Zaya writes: During the nine-month campaign to wrest the Nineveh Governorate and its capital Mosul from Islamic State (IS) completed in 2017, much of Mosul’s infrastructure was destroyed. […] Even with promises from the international community and the Iraqi federal government to support the reconstruction process, these vital sectors must be strengthened locally if the city is to survive. This is especially so because the city is emerging from destruction not limited solely to its infrastructure or architecture: more dangerous is the destruction of thought that will bog the city down with no real or true revival. – Washington Institute

Muhammad Mansour writes: Ironically, the major policy shift behind Pompeo’s speech—President Trump’s decision to remove American forces from Syria—actually reads as an echo of Obama’s attempts to reduce U.S. military involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan. In fact, the recent breakthrough in negotiations between the United States and the Taliban only solidifies this image of a continuing policy of military withdrawal. – Washington Institute

China

China has postponed a major tourism campaign in New Zealand days before its launch and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s visit to Beijing has been further delayed as concerns mount of strained ties over China’s growing influence in the Pacific. – Reuters

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo cautioned U.S. allies on Monday against deploying equipment from Chinese telecoms giant Huawei on their soil, saying it would make it more difficult for Washington to “partner alongside them”. – Reuters

US negotiators met with their Chinese counterparts in Beijing Monday for a new round of high-stakes trade talks, hoping to reach a deal before the March 1 deadline set by Donald Trump as the IMF warned of a possible global economic “storm”. – Agence France-Presse

Erin Dunne writes: President Trump has many justifications for his tariffs: national security, pushing back on unfair trade deals, and protecting American manufacturing. Not on the list: playing favorites with Chinese imports over those from neighboring Canada. But through the convoluted exclusions process of U.S. tariffs, that’s exactly what has happened. – Washington Examiner

Asia

Thailand’s election commission on Monday disqualified the king’s sister from running for prime minister, formally putting an end to a candidacy that had briefly upended the nation’s political landscape. – New York Times

Japan said on Tuesday it had lodged a complaint with Seoul and demanded an apology after a South Korean lawmaker said the Japanese emperor should apologize over the issue of “comfort women” who were used in military brothels. – Reuters

Joseph Bosco writes: These ongoing hostile actions, which defy Washington’s condition of a peaceful outcome, have long freed the US, morally and legally, to treat Taiwan and its leaders as the model global citizen it is, up to and including formal diplomatic recognition. An address by Tsai to Congress falls well within the range of permissible US options. – Taipei Times

Europe

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo opened a tour of Central Europe aimed at countering growing Chinese and Russian influence there with a warning to Hungary about the dangers of forging close ties with Beijing. – Wall Street Journal

The U.K. plans to send a new aircraft carrier to tour the Gulf and Pacific Ocean in a show of strength aimed at reassuring its U.S. and European allies that Britain won’t dial down its military ambitions following Brexit. – Wall Street Journal

Vice President Pence will visit the Auschwitz-Birkenau site on Friday, and tour a memorial to Jews killed at the former extermination camp run by Nazis in occupied Poland as part of a European trip that will also focus on the Trump administration’s view of Iran as the main source of instability in the Middle East. – Washington Post

Prime Minister Theresa May will tell British lawmakers on Tuesday they must hold their nerve over Brexit to force the European Union to accept changes to the divorce deal that would pave the way for an orderly exit. – Reuters

Twelve Catalan secessionist leaders go on trial in Spain’s Supreme Court on Tuesday, charged for their role in a failed independence bid 16 months ago that deeply divided the country and triggered the biggest political crisis in decades. – Reuters

A tree planted in a Paris suburb in memory of a young Jewish man who was tortured to death in 2006 has been chopped down, authorities said Monday, confirming the latest in a series of anti-Semitic acts in France. – Agence France-Presse

A British departure from the European Union without a deal could put 600,000 jobs around the world at risk, with Germany the hardest hit, a study published Monday found. – Agence France-Presse

France said Monday night that the number of anti-Semitic acts in the country soared last year, and decried the “poison” of hate. – Times of Israel

Belgrade’s Jewish community on Monday denounced comments from a Serbian opposition leader that appeared to embrace supporters of a Nazi collaborator who helped oversee the murder of thousands of Serbian Jews during World War II. – Agence France-Presse

The European Union must quicken its pace toward greater military prowess to ensure the bloc’s 500 million citizens can emerge from an ongoing reshuffling of global order on their own terms, according to a new think tank report. – Defense News

German authorities banned two media organizations it said are linked to the banned Kurdistan Workers party (PKK), considered a terrorist organization by the European Union and Turkey, after raids early on Tuesday. – Reuters

Janusz Bugajski writes: With the imminent entry of North Macedonia, NATO is consolidating its position in the Western Balkans as a producer of security and a facilitator of inter-state cooperation. The Alliance has always combined two missions – military and political. While its military muscle has been consistently acknowledged, particularly by arch-rivals such as Russia, NATO’s promotion of political agreements between members states is often underestimated. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Venezuela

Blessed with the world’s largest oil reserves, this South American nation was once the region’s richest per capita. Twenty years after the launch of the late Hugo Chávez’s Bolivarian Revolution, it is now one of the poorest. Blanco’s husband, a loyalist of Maduro — Chavez’s anointed successor — still calls socialism society’s great equalizer that gave the poor dignity. But like more and more Venezuelans, Blanco is questioning not just a man — Maduro — but an economic model. – Washington Post

Venezuela’s opposition supporters will take to the streets nationwide on Tuesday to keep up the heat on embattled President Nicolas Maduro and to call on him to let humanitarian aid into the country where food and medicine shortages are rife. – Reuters

Venezuela’s self-declared leader Juan Guaido he was working to restore ties with Israel that Caracas cut off a decade ago in solidarity with the Palestinians. – Reuters

Colin P. Clarke writes: Responding to a question on current instability in Venezuela and the presence of terrorist groups in the region, specifically Lebanese Hezbollah, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo confirmed in a recent interview that the Trump administration believes that the “Party of God,” as Hezbollah is known, maintains “active cells” in Venezuela. – RAND

Tom Rogan writes: To save lives, the U.S. should deploy a hospital ship off the Venezuelan coast. Doing so would also allow the Trump administration to show that its interests in Venezuela are ultimately humanitarian in nature. The first interest is clear. With basic medicines gone from Venezuelan hospital shelves, patients are now cared for simply by the best efforts of unequipped doctors. All but the wealthiest cancer patients can forget about treatment. […] This is what socialism and madman Nicolas Maduro have wrought in the nation with Earth’s largest proven oil reserves. – Washington Examiner

Tom Rogan writes: This week will be pivotal in the revolt against despotic ruler Nicolas Maduro. That’s because on Tuesday, Venezuelans will gather to demand Maduro’s resignation, and will also attempt to bring U.S. aid across the Colombian border. Maduro has ordered his military to stop them. So will the military fire on fellow Venezuelans? […] Where previous street protests have signaled great discontent with Maduro, they have not directly challenged his control over the military. But Venezuelan activist attempts to bring U.S. aid across the border would force Maduro to decide whether to blink and allow the aid to enter, or order action to constrain it. – Washington Examiner