Fdd's overnight brief

Hezbollah

A year after uncovering a network of cross-border Hezbollah tunnels, the Israeli military says the Lebanese militant group has beefed up its presence along the volatile frontier. – Associated Press 

Troops from the IDF’s 215 Artillery Division have completed a week-long tactical drill simulating war on the Lebanese front using a new operational concept aimed at producing a higher level of effectiveness on the battlefield. […]And while the battalion is drilling for possible war with Hezbollah in the North, they took part in the last round of violence between Israel and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip (Operation Black Belt). – Jerusalem Post 

Joseph Haboush writes: The Amal Movement, meanwhile, needs Hezbollah to maintain the two parties’ long-time political stranglehold on the Shi’a community. While Hezbollah supporters were reportedly initially among those protesting against Berri in south Lebanon, as the threat to both parties has become more apparent, their interests have converged. This means that their tactical shift toward street-level violence is likely to intensify if no political solution is reached soon. And as this threat continues, all options are on the table for Hezbollah as per orders from Iran and what it sees as an expanding foreign plot against the “axis of resistance.” – Middle East Institute

Amos Harel and Yaniv Kubovich write: Hezbollah’s years of fighting in Syria alongside Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Russian army officers have given the organization and its commanders critical experience in fields that were unfamiliar to them in the past. […]But the return to the south gives Hezbollah another advantage: The proximity of its top units to the border theoretically shortens the time it needs to carry out a surprise attack against Israel, in the nature of a move talked about it recent years – a surprise takeover of communities or Israeli army positions along the border. – Haaretz 

Arabian Peninsula

Saudi Aramco priced its initial public offering Thursday at the high end of the targeted range to give the oil giant a total value of $1.7 trillion in the world’s biggest-ever IPO. – Wall Street Journal 

An oil producers’ committee led by Saudi Arabia and Russia recommended deepening crude-production cuts by 42% next year, according to Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, signaling the plan is likely to be adopted Thursday by OPEC. – Wall Street Journal 

In a shift that analysts said reflects progress in Saudi talks with Yemen’s Houthi rebels to end the Yemen war, State Department Iran envoy Brian Hook said today that Iran does not speak for the Houthis, whom he described as playing a more constructive role in issuing a cease-fire proposal. – Al-Monitor 

David Ignatius writes: The U.S.-Saudi security relationship needs a reset — but the only way to rebuild shattered trust is a new system of accountability and controls to prevent abuses. The GIP training issue reminds us of what went so badly wrong in the kingdom with Khashoggi’s murder a year ago, and the urgent need to begin fixing it. – Washington Post

Middle East & North Africa

The United Nations center in Libya was opened as an “alternative to detention,” a last, safe stop for migrants before they were resettled in other countries. Now, just a year later, it looks increasingly like the notorious Libyan lockups it was supposed to replace. – Associated Press 

The Department of Defense has been struggling to explain its position on the possibility of sending more troops to the Middle East to counter Iran. – Business Insider 

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did not discuss normalizing ties with Israel with Moroccan officials while visiting that country, a senior State Department official said Thursday. – Agency France-Presse 

Russia and Turkey are working on a contract for the delivery of a new batch of Russian S-400 missile systems, the Interfax news agency cited a senior official at a Russian military cooperation agency as saying on Friday. – Reuters 

Frederic Wehrey writes: All this may sound like good news to Haftar, who, for the first time, could conceivably take Tripoli. But the battlefield advantages that come with Russian aid may carry costs. On Nov. 14, the U.S. State Department issued its most forceful condemnation yet of his war, singling out his militia by name and asserting that his alliance with Russian mercenaries is a dangerous breach of Libyan sovereignty. In tandem, the U.S. Congress is growing considerably more concerned about the war’s effect on civilians and its boon to Russian influence in the region. Bipartisan legislation is pending in both the House and Senate that would place sanctions on the Russian contractors and their enablers. – Foreign Policy

China

China’s trade negotiations with the U.S. remain on track, Beijing said, offering official reassurance after tensions flared between the world’s two biggest economies over human-rights issues in China. – Wall Street Journal 

But whereas Trump and other U.S. officials tweet in English to a largely domestic audience, China’s Foreign Ministry appears to be targeting international audiences with a sometimes crude message. […]However, changing international attitudes via tweet may be an uphill battle for China. – Washington Post 

China reacted angrily to President Donald Trump’s approval of legislation supporting Hong Kong protesters last month, but movement on another congressional bill, backing Uighur Muslims in China’s northwest, has cut even closer to the bone and could trigger reprisals and hurt efforts to resolve the U.S.-China trade war. – Reuters 

China is reportedly demanding a reduction in U.S. tariffs ahead of the “phase one” trade deal between the two countries. Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng told reporters that Beijing and Washington remain in “close communication,” but he did not have additional information, according to multiple reports. – The Hill 

The World Bank said its board on Thursday adopted a new plan to aid China with $1 billion to $1.5 billion in low-interest loans annually through June 2025, despite the objections of U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and several U.S. lawmakers. – Reuters 

If the U.S. military intends to technologically keep pace with China, now is the time to invest in the long-term health of the defense industrial base, including creating a new national guard-esque unit for technology and adding a special visa program, a new report warns. – Defense News Tom Rogan writes: Well, Huawei’s real motivation here isn’t actually about America. It’s about the rest of the world and about Europe in particular. […]Huawei’s litigation is only one part of a much broader lobbying effort led by Xi’s government. And the Chinese are playing hardball here, making clear to Berlin, Paris, and London that lucrative trade deals depend on their compliance. – Washington Examiner 

Russia

The Trump administration Thursday placed a $5 million bounty on the leader of a Russian hacker group called Evil Corp for his alleged work for Moscow’s intelligence agency, part of what U.S. officials say is a broader reprisal for a Kremlin-directed cyber offensive against the U.S. – Wall Street Journal  

Russia is ready to extend the New START nuclear arms control treaty by the end of this year without any more conditions or discussion, President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday, appearing to drop Moscow’s earlier defiant tone. – Reuters 

NATO, the U.S. and Russia have a new domain to compete and conflict over: space. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Wednesday that the U.S. saw space as as “theater of military operations” and that the development of the U.S. Space Force posed a threat to Russia. – CNBC 

In the article, Patrushev explained that his job as Russia’s Security Council Secretary, is to identify scenarios for global development, in order to preserve a role for Russia. […]The first is the transition to a polycentric world order. The second is the continuation of the US attempts to preserve its dominance. The third is the formation of a bipolar world order. And, the fourth development scenario is the enhancement of regionalization processes. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Alina Polyakova writes: Past Russian behavior suggests that when the West is preoccupied elsewhere, Russia seeks out new opportunities to advance its influence. As the United States grows skeptical of Chinese technology companies and tries to pressure other countries to join a crackdown, Russian surveillance technology exporters may step in to offer an alternative, and perhaps more affordable, model of digital authoritarianism. – New York Times 

Africa

Armed militants in northeast Nigeria have kidnapped 14 people, including two Red Cross workers and an army sergeant, security sources said on Thursday. – Agence France-Presse 

Burundi’s ruling party youth league is forcing citizens to donate money to fund next year’s election, Human Rights Watch said on Friday, as fears of abuses and renewed violence grow ahead of the vote. – Reuters 

Ivory Coast, the largest economy in francophone West Africa, is too focused on doing business with France and should open up its market to investors from a wider range of countries, an opposition leader said. – Bloomberg 

Being caught with alcohol in Sudan’s capital of Khartoum used to mean 40 lashes under former President Omar al-Bashir, who turned the African country of 40 million into an autocratic Islamic state over three decades. He was ousted by the army in April, and now the country that emulated Saudi Arabia in its pursuit of puritanism is rivaling the kingdom when it comes to loosening up. – Bloomberg 

Cybersecurity

ManTech and General Dynamics are joining forces to compete for the Pentagon’s top cyber training contract, a deal that is thought to be worth nearly $1 billion. – Fifth Domain 

The bipartisan Congressional Artificial Intelligence Caucus is concerned about the lack of coordination between individual federal departments’ AI offices. – Federal Times 

When the Navy returns to holding large-scale fleet exercises in summer 2020, the operations will involve information warfare and tactical cyber teams, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday said Thursday morning. – USNI News 

The U.S. State Department, which is hoping to slow the spread of 5G networks using hardware from China, said it supports a plan from the European Union Council that highlighted the risks to 5G networks if they are built from certain companies, according to a Dec. 4 statement. – C4ISRNET 

To keep up with the changing nature of war and in response to nations such as China and Russia restructuring their militaries around a consolidated information warfare discipline, senior leaders at the Navy and Marine Corps recently said they are looking to boost their own prowess in that area. – C4ISRNET 

Long War

The head of Britain’s armed forces has publicly contradicted Donald Trump’s repeated claims of victory over Islamic State. – Sky News (UK) 

Editorial: But Mr. Trump was making a crucial point—granted, in his undiplomatic way—about European irresponsibility in the fight against Islamic State. […]Mr. Trump’s rash decisions often distract from his antagonists’ bad choices and undermine his more considered policies. The President’s abrupt shift in Syria made the foreign fighter problem worse, but he is right to press Mr. Macron. – Wall Street Journal 

Rita Katz writes: It was a big deal when accounts for the Islamic State and al-Qaeda started disappearing from the Telegram messaging app over the past month. […]The Internet is a critical lifeblood for terrorists, so they are more disoriented online now than they have been since they embraced social media in the early 2010s. This is progress, no doubt. But why did it take so long for Telegram to act with such aggression? – Washington Post