Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

A new policy allowing Iranian women to pass down their citizenship to their children marks a long-sought victory for activists and is raising hopes for an estimated 1 million undocumented children born to foreign fathers in the country. – Washington Post

Swaths of the Iranian economy are retooling in response to more than two years of U.S. sanctions, finding pockets of resilience in the country’s large domestic economy. – Wall Street Journal

Iran is extending a night-time traffic curfew to 330 lower-risk cities and towns in an effort to sustain a recent decline in the number of new coronavirus infections and deaths, state television reported on Saturday. – Reuters

Iran executed an ethnic Baluch militant on Saturday for the shooting death of two Revolutionary Guards five years ago, the judiciary’s official news website Mizan reported. – Reuters

Iran’s foreign minister on Thursday dismissed U.S. President Donald Trump’s allegations that Tehran was behind the recent rocket attack on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. – Reuters

Iran on Thursday warned the US president against any “adventurism” before leaving the White House, after Donald Trump said he would hold “Iran responsible” for any fatal attack on Americans in Iraq. – Agence France-Presse

President Hassan Rouhani said Saturday that Washington was demanding Iranian transactions for novel coronavirus vaccines pass through US banks, and expressed fear the money could be seized. – Agence France-Presse

While subjected to years of sanctions and a “maximum pressure” campaign inflicted by the Trump administration, reports indicate that the Iranian regime and its military wing – the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – may have found a crack in their financing system giving them access to millions in funds. – Fox News

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Iran doesn’t want a conflict on the eve of the Biden administration. It knows the new US administration has hinted at a return to the Iran deal and engagement with Iran. Tehran has no reason to burn those bridges. It does want to show it can strike at the US in Iraq. But its foreign ministry and leaders of Iraqi militias, such as Qais Khazali, claim they didn’t attack the US Embassy on Sunday. This is the dance of messages between Washington, Tehran and Jerusalem. The question is when the music will stop. – Jerusalem Post

Andrew Lövy writes: If the US signs onto the deal and removes sanctions, terrorism across the region and world will increase, as Iran will have the ability to adequately fund its proxies. Moreover, with the influx of cash, Iran would be able to purchase new conventional weapons since the UN arms embargo on it was lifted in October 2020. It is for the reasons listed above that the Biden Administration must not reenter the JCPOA. – Jerusalem Post

Yonah Jeremy Bob writes: So dealing with Iran will get nowhere before the June elections unless the parties that care most about it get in the incoming president’s face. However, they should be aware that Biden is a more visceral and spontaneous personality than the famously cerebral Obama, and could take offense if pushed too far. Still, with Biden seemingly on the fence about how hard to press for new concessions from the ayatollahs, whoever is loudest and hardest to ignore might make the difference. – Jerusalem Post

Yonah Jeremy Bob writes: Biden has committed not to just be a third Obama term and talked tough about Iran’s missile and precision-rocket programs. Yet, this is a long way from him being ready to stare down the ayatollahs while 150 Democrats in the House of Representatives press him to simply rejoin the deal. If Iran was not on the ropes in 2020, it was certainly on the run. But with no knockout blow delivered, 2021 could be very different. – Jerusalem Post

Amitai Etzioni writes: This is clearly the time to explore what the policy of the United States—and its allies—ought to be toward Iran. […]In short, we need a rather different deal, one that does not merely remedy the several serious defects the current one has, but that also governs ballistic missiles and precision-guided munitions—and a commitment from Iran to stop supporting terrorism. – The National Interest 

Turkey

Turks had been grappling with a falling currency and double-digit inflation for two years when the pandemic hit in March, sharply worsening the country’s deep recession. Nine months in, as a second wave of the virus sweeps through Turkey, there are signs that a significant portion of the population is overwhelmed by debt and increasingly going hungry. – New York Times

Turkey’s parliament passed a law on Sunday that would ramp up oversight of foundations and associations and, according to rights groups including Amnesty International, risks limiting the freedoms of civil society organisations. – Reuters

Turkey would like better ties with Israel but Israeli policy towards the Palestinians remains “unacceptable”, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday. – Reuters

The wife of detained Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas said on Thursday she expected Turkey to comply with a call from Europe’s top rights court to free him, but that the country’s overall legal system still needed to be fixed. – Reuters

Turkey’s Foreign Ministry said on Friday that Ankara welcomed the trade deal reached between Britain and the European Union. – Reuters

The U.K. expects to sign a continuity agreement with Turkey on Tuesday to roll over tariff-free trade arrangements worth 18.6 billion pounds ($25 billion) last year. – Bloomberg

Lebanon

Lebanon’s top Christian cleric urged politicians on Friday to rid themselves of external pressure and form a government to end political deadlock and help resolve a severe financial crisis. – Reuters

Hundreds of Syrian refugees fled their makeshift camp in north Lebanon after their tents were torched when fighting broke out between local youths and camp residents, aid officials said on Sunday. – Reuters

The army said it “arrested two Lebanese nationals and six Syrians over a personal dispute… between a number of Lebanese men and Syrian workers,” according to a statement. – Agence France-Presse

Libya

Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar warned on Sunday that the forces of Khalifa Haftar and their supporters based in eastern Libya would be viewed as “legitimate targets” if they attempted to attack Turkish forces in the region. – Reuters

Egyptian diplomats and intelligence officials arrived in the Libyan capital of Tripoli on Sunday, Libyan officials said, the most senior Egyptian delegation to visit the western part of the conflict-stricken country in years. – Associated Press

Libya’s rival leaders kicked off a U.N.-brokered prisoner exchange, United Nations and Libyan officials said Saturday, which was part of a preliminary cease-fire agreement between the warring Libyan groups. – Associated Press

China

Chances looked good for the resolution of a years-in-the-making investment agreement between China and the European Commission before the end of the year. This week, that changed. – Washington Post

A Chinese court on Monday sentenced a citizen journalist who documented the early days of the coronavirus outbreak to four years in prison, sending a stark warning to those challenging the government’s official narrative of the pandemic. – New York Times

Chinese regulators on Sunday ordered the financial-technology giant Ant Group to fix what they described as a litany of business failings, escalating a pressure campaign that has been building since the government abruptly halted the company’s plans for a record-breaking share listing last month. – New York Times

China will overtake the United States to become the world’s biggest economy in 2028, five years earlier than previously estimated due to the contrasting recoveries of the two countries from the COVID-19 pandemic, a think tank said. – Reuters

China urged the United States to stop using the Hong Kong issue to interfere with its domestic affairs on Monday, after the U.S. embassy called for the release of 12 Hong Kong fugitives on trial in Shenzhen. – Reuters

China’s finance ministry said on Friday it will extend tariff exemptions for imports of 6 products from the United States including white oil and food-grade petroleum wax, for another year. – Reuters

China will conduct talks on an investment pact with the European Union “at its own pace”, its foreign ministry said on Friday, raising doubts about whether a deal can be sealed by year-end. – Reuters

The United States should stop using Taiwan to meddle in China’s domestic affairs, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Monday, after U.S. President Donald Trump signed into law the Taiwan Assurance Act of 2020. – Reuters

The Chinese foreign ministry on Monday said it firmly rejected new U.S. legislation on Tibet signed into law by President Donald Trump over the weekend. – Reuters

Chinese state media has hit out at President Donald Trump’s administration for its politicization of the coronavirus pandemic, as the commander in chief again blames Beijing for the precarious financial position of many Americans. – Newsweek

Editorial: The costs of continuing on this course — moral, economic, and strategic — are simply too high. Voters and consumers must demand that basic moral and legal ethical standards be applied as a fundamental element to any corporation doing business with China. They would not support neo-Nazis, or neo-Confederates, and they should not support Xi’s regime for exactly the same reasons. – Washington Examiner

Josh Rogin writes: Some of Biden’s advisers will surely tell him Tibet is just one more uncomfortable issue to be avoided in his effort to manage a complex and already rocky U.S.-China relationship. But ignoring Tibet helped embolden Beijing to expand its repression scheme to Xinjiang in the first place. That sickness is still spreading. Biden must not allow it to further metastasize. – Washington Post

Scott Trail writes: The Chinese understand the importance of logistics in the Western Pacific. Extending their reach in the South and East China seas is an attempt at increasing their logistical advantage in the region. The seas will provide food to feed their people, oil and gas to fuel their machines, and control of approximately 20 percent of the world’s trade. If Chinese expansion in the South China Sea remains unabated, China could exert influence well beyond its borders, undermining the international law of the sea. – Defense News

Kishore Mahbubani writes: In short, if the Biden administration were to attempt a complete reboot of American strategy towards China, it could chart a new path, demonstrating public toughness and firmness, where necessary, while picking up concrete benefits for the American economy and chipping away at Trump’s political base. In the process, it will also find a more intelligent and thoughtful strategy towards China that would bring back many of America’s allies and friends. – The National Interest

Gideon Rachman writes: The United States and its allies should also work to strengthen international rules on trade and the rule-of-law, which will help to shape the way China has to behave. In the current political climate in America, it is probably impossible for the United States to rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership—negotiated by the Obama administration but abandoned by the Trump administration. But this is the kind of open, norm-setting arrangement that the United States and its allies should work on together, as they cope with the power of a truculent China. – The National Interest

James Siebens writes: It remains to be seen whether President Biden will renew America’s commitment to its past agreements and joint communiques with China or maintain the more confrontational, and arguably provocative course set by the Trump administration. What’s most important is that the next administration sets a clear, realistic line on terms with China, and sticks to it. If recent history has taught us anything about how to use the military to advance objectives while avoiding war, it’s this: Washington must be crystal-clear about where its lines are, then communicate them, then stand by them, and show up when lines are crossed. – The National Interest

Gordon G. Chang writes: Because Xi has accumulated almost unprecedented political power, he now has almost unprecedented accountability. […]China’s ruler, therefore, has a very low threshold of risk. We may think he should be cautious, but Xi Jinping now has incentives to lash out and start a crisis that is unimaginable. At this moment, free societies do not appreciate the danger posed by an incredibly arrogant and deeply insecure China. – Newsweek

South Asia

The Trump administration has significantly invested in its relationship with India over the past four years, seeing the country as a crucial partner in counterbalancing the rise of China. – New York Times

The Pakistani authorities were seeking new legal means to continue to detain the man convicted in 2002 as the mastermind of the kidnapping and killing of Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl, officials said, after a court Thursday ordered the man’s release. – Wall Street Journal

India’s government detained at least 75 Kashmiri political leaders and activists to forestall political unrest after an alliance of Kashmir’s regional political parties won a local election, leaders and a police official said on Saturday. – Reuters

Bangladesh is set to move a second batch of Rohingya refugees from neighbouring Myanmar to the remote island of Bhasan Char in the Bay of Bengal this month, officials said on Sunday, despite calls by rights groups not to carry out further relocations. – Reuters

A senior Chinese official arrived in Kathmandu on Sunday to assess the political situation, local party officials said, a first diplomatic step by the neighbouring power after Nepal’s Prime Minister dissolved parliament a week ago. – Reuters

Neha is one of nearly 1,000 girls from religious minorities who are forced to convert to Islam in Pakistan each year, largely to pave the way for marriages that are under the legal age and non-consensual. – Associated Press

Patrick Mendis and Antonina Luszczykiewicz write: For the United States to counterbalance an increasingly assertive China, President Biden has to push the India policy envelope conceived by the Trump administration while championing America’s founding values of freedom and democracy. By upholding these values on the world stage, Biden would at least be remembered as an authentic U.S. president who re-established the American narrative as the “shining city upon a hill” for the rest to emulate.  – The National Interest

South Caucasus

Human rights groups say hundreds of videos showing atrocities by troops on both sides have been posted online in the month since a cease-fire deal halted the fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave within Azerbaijan’s borders but under ethnic Armenian control. – Washington Post

Azerbaijan’s Defence Ministry said on Monday that one serviceman had been killed in an attack in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. – Reuters

Israel and Turkey both offered the government of Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev military support during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. Now Baku suggested to Jerusalem and Ankara it could help build new bridges between its two allies, Walla! reported on Wednesday.  – Jerusalem Post

Armenia’s beleaguered prime minister has for the first time signaled a willingness to hold early parliamentary elections as opposition groups mount pressure for his resignation over the handling of a six-week war with Azerbaijan. – Radio Free Europe / Radio liberty

Europe

For weary Brexit negotiators on both sides of the English Channel, a Christmas Eve trade agreement sealed 11 months of painstaking deliberations over Britain’s departure from the European Union, encompassing details as arcane as what species of fish could be caught by each side’s boats in British waters. – New York Times

Earlier this month, 271 former members of Spain’s armed forces used the anniversary of the country’s Constitution to issue a manifesto criticizing the left-wing coalition government and warning that Spain’s unity was under threat. – New York Times

Instead, as the U.K. prepares to leave the EU’s economic orbit Jan. 1, the EU has regained confidence, helped partly by a revived Franco-German partnership and encouraged by the anticipated arrival of the Biden administration in Washington. – Wall Street Journal

Since Britain’s 2016 referendum vote to leave the European Union, the U.K. government has said its aim is reclaiming sovereignty—the ability to set its own rules for its own benefit. – Wall Street Journal

Britain on Saturday published the text of its narrow trade agreement with the European Union just five days before it exits one of the world’s biggest trading blocs in its most momentous global shift since the loss of empire. – Reuters

With Britain and the European Union having clinched a deal, the United Kingdom is now pursuing trade deals with Australia, the United States and countries in the Indo-Pacific region, UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab wrote in The Telegraph late on Sunday. – Reuters

Britain on Monday urged businesses to prepare for Brexit, just days before a transition period designed to smooth the UK’s departure from the European Union comes to an end. – Reuters

Four people were injured in a shooting in the German capital Berlin in the early hours of Saturday, police said. – Reuters

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said Madrid and London would continue to negotiate an agreement on the British territory of Gibraltar on the Iberian peninsula after the Brexit trade deal clinched with the European Union on Thursday. – Reuters

China’s long-serving envoy to Britain, Liu Xiaoming, a staunch defender of closer UK-China economic ties and the imposition of new security laws in Hong Kong, is standing down, marking the end of an era in relations between the two countries that hit a high in 2015 but has since worsened markedly. – The Guardian

Members of the European parliament will start belated scrutiny of the post-Brexit trade agreement on Monday, after EU and UK negotiators finally struck a deal on Christmas Eve. – The Guardian

Steven Erlanger writes: In the end, this is a narrow free-trade deal, but one that grants Britain more trading rights within the European Union than any other third country. […]It has been a satisfying end to a difficult year for Ms. von der Leyen and the European Union as a whole. The bloc was buffeted by serious challenges ranging from the pandemic to securing a new seven-year budget and a sizable virus recovery fund to help those countries most badly hit. That fund embodies a collective European debt for the first time. – New York Times

Dominic Green writes: The agenda contains no EU commitment to reducing ties to Russia, China or Iran. It expects the U.S. to support European powers as they subvert American interests and undermine America’s global position. This is known as having your gateau and eating it. The Biden administration will claim that it has restored the old amity with Europe, but the EU’s new world is what it is: a growing strategic problem for the U.S., in which historic partners claim to be allies but act as they choose. – Wall Street Journal

Yasmeen Serhan writes: For years, Lukashenko’s rule has been predicated on presidential contests that were never really contests at all. His loss of legitimacy at home and abroad means the only certain outcome for the country, as Tsikhanouskaya told me, is that life in Belarus cannot return to what it was before the election. The scale of the protests, paired with the brutality of the government’s response, all but ensures that at least. This doesn’t make the prodemocracy movement’s success a given. Even the most promising campaigns have faltered as a result of fatigue, division, and fickle media attention. – The Atlantic

The Americas

A court said Wednesday it has cleared the only Argentine still facing charges in the 1994 bombing that killed 85 people at a Jewish cultural center in the nation’s capital. – Washington Post

Venezuela’s opposition-held National Assembly on Saturday approved a statute extending its term into 2021, after a disputed Dec. 6 election in which allies of President Nicolas Maduro’s ruling socialist party won 91% of the seats in Congress. – Reuters

Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes: The Citgo Six may be destined to become mere footnotes in an old-fashioned purge. But an attempt to use the Americans as bargaining chips in future negotiations with the Biden administration cannot be ruled out. – Wall Street Journal

Cybersecurity

Russian government hackers have compromised Microsoft cloud customers and stolen emails from at least one private-sector company, according to people familiar with the matter, a worrying development in Moscow’s ongoing cyberespionage campaign targeting numerous U.S. agencies and corporate computer networks. – Washington Post

Britain is as vulnerable to a devastating Russian cyber attack as the United States, John Bolton has warned. – Telegraph

Foreign hackers, who some top US officials believe are from Russia, were able to use the hack to spy on private companies like the elite cybersecurity firm FireEye and the upper echelons of the US Government, including the Department of Homeland Security and Treasury Department. – Business Insider

If Russian hackers suspected of a vast cybersecurity breach slipped into the Pentagon or military’s computer systems, the strength of protective network blockades is key to keeping them from burrowing in to try to access increasing amounts of information. – C4ISRNET

New Yorkers remain on edge following the antisemitic cyberattack that took place at a Jewish high school in Great Neck on December 14. As the FBI continues its investigation, Jewish leaders are speaking out about proactive ways to mitigate further incidents. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: The United States and its allies should be building norms against the corruption of the Web, not turning sovereign states’ social media landscapes into irrealities full of false personas making farcical claims. Acting otherwise sends a message around the globe that has never been especially effective: Do as we say, not as we do. – Washington Post

Douglas Schoen writes: In order to confront the threat from Russia and China, we must bolster our alliances with our partners in Europe, a task that Trump often approached with disinterest or outright scorn. Biden enters office with the mandate to gather countries in favor of democracy to a stalwart resistance to counter the militaristic belligerence and aggression from Russia and China. This is a difficult feat that we must not and cannot achieve alone. – The Hill

George Beebe writes: We need to weaken the perilous link between cyber espionage and cyber sabotage by old-fashioned hardening of our critical infrastructure and reducing our dependency on digital networks. […]Building such resilience and redundancy will be expensive. The alternative, however, could be catastrophic. – The National Interest