Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

The Trump administration imposed sanctions Monday on two Iranian intelligence officials it holds responsible for the abduction, detention and probable death of Robert Levinson, a former FBI agent who disappeared in Iran almost 14 years ago. – Washington Post

Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on Tuesday condemned U.S. sanctions against Turkey over Ankara’s acquisition of Russian S-400 air defence systems as “contempt for international law”. – Reuters

A tanker chartered by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) is loading Venezuelan crude for export, documents from state-run PDVSA show, providing evidence of the two countries’ latest tactics to expand their trade in defiance of US sanctions. – Reuters

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani defended on Monday the execution of a prominent dissident journalist based in France and captured by Iran last year, saying the death sentence passed on Ruhollah Zam was carried out lawfully. – Reuters

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Monday that Tehran’s missile programme, seen by Washington as a threat to regional stability, was non-negotiable and that U.S. President-Elect Joe Biden is “well aware of it”. – Reuters

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani said on Monday Tehran could move past a diplomatic quarrel with Turkey over a poem recited by President Tayyip Erdogan during a visit to Azerbaijan, which Tehran had called a threat to its territorial integrity. – Reuters

Turkey has detained 11 people involved in the abduction and smuggling to Iran of an Iranian dissident wanted by Tehran in connection with a deadly 2018 attack in southwestern Iran, Turkish authorities said on Monday. – Reuters

Iran would return to compliance with the nuclear deal within an hour of the US doing so, its president said – but he faced further pressure from the outgoing Trump administration after it sanctioned two Iranian officials over their alleged involvement in the abduction of a former FBI agent. – The Guardian

A common criticism of assassinations such as the one that took out Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh last month is that those targeted are simply replaced while the regional conflict escalates. In the case of Iran, though, US President Donald Trump’s special representative for the Islamic Republic does not believe that conventional wisdom applies. – Times of Israel

Herb Keinon writes: The imminent changing of the guard in Washington, formalized by the Electoral College balloting on Monday – and the prime minister’s natural desire to want to start off with the president on the right foot – does not change the way he views the JCPOA: as a threat to the survival of Israel. And Netanyahu made clear in his comments alongside O’Brien that he will not shy away, once again, from shouting this from the highest hilltop – even if doing so, once again, puts Jerusalem on a collision course with Washington. – Jerusalem Post

Israel

In the two weeks since commercial flights began between Tel Aviv and the Emirati cities of Dubai and Abu Dhabi, Israelis have caused a remarkable tourism boomlet in the Gulf nation. Suddenly, Hebrew can be heard throughout the markets, malls and beaches of a destination that was strictly off-limits until the two countries achieved a diplomatic breakthrough in August and established normal relations. – Washington Post

Editorial: If the Bhutan-Israel agreement further strengthens Israel-India ties, that also redounds to the benefit of the U.S. as it tries to balance China’s influence in Eurasia. As Joe Biden begins Middle East diplomacy, he will be engaging with an Israel that is in a stronger strategic position than when he was last in the White House. He says he wants to build on the Trump Administration’s diplomatic progress between Israel and the Arab world, and a November Journal report suggests Saudi Arabia is holding out on recognizing Israel in the hope of using it to improve its standing with the Biden Administration. – Wall Street Journal

Lior Lehrs writes: Israeli efforts to squeeze final concessions from the Trump administration may serve Netanyahu in the short term but risks generating a crisis with the Biden administration in its early days in office. Israel would do well to focus instead on preparations for the incoming administration and on rehabilitating its relations with the Democratic Party upon its return to the White House. – Jerusalem Post

Neville Teller writes: Is a future Biden administration likely to endorse or renege on it? As president, Joe Biden is unlikely to view the development with much relish, but the balance of US interests probably lies with allowing the deal – and with it US recognition of Morocco’s disputed claim to Western Sahara – to stand. As far as Sahrawi national liberation aspirations are concerned, Israeli-Moroccan normalization has been bought at a high cost. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

Italian prosecutors last week pressed charges against four members of Egypt’s security forces over Mr. Regeni’s abduction, torture and death as they laid out the most detailed case to date against the government of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, for whom it has become a source of severe international embarrassment. – Wall Street Journal 

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has proposed new envoys to mediate conflicts in Libya and the Middle East, who could be given the greenlight by the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday after months of delay, diplomats said. – Reuters

Moroccan authorities on Monday prevented a protest in the capital Rabat against the kingdom’s move to normalise ties with Israel following a deal brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump. – Reuters

Across Syria, Yemen and Iraq, millions have lost their homes in war and struggle to find livelihoods, educate their children or even to feed themselves. Armed factions have proliferated in those countries and Libya, raking in money and recruiting young people who find few other options. Poverty rates have risen around the region, especially with the coronavirus pandemic. – Associated Press

A Norwegian diplomat with extensive experience in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been tapped to become the United Nations’ next special envoy for the Middle East Peace Process. – Times of Israel

In the context of his effort to improve Palestinian relations with the Arab countries, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas began a two-day visit to Qatar, where he met on Monday with the country’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. – Jerusalem Post

An Australian public health professor and his son have been detained in Qatar for almost five months without charge, and are receiving consular assistance from the Australian embassy. – The Guardian

Andrew Peek writes: In any case, Embassy Baghdad is safer now than it has been at any point since the United States invaded Iraq. Its countermeasures and Iraqi commitment to its safety have increased. Critically, the domestic political cost of attacking the embassy has also increased, dramatically. The threat from Shia militants has also declined from the heyday of the Mahdi Army battles in 2007, though it will never go away, not without also taking away this zero-sum quasi-sectarian balance of power that dominates strategic life in the Gulf. – The National Interest

Anshel Pfeffer writes: The bigger question is how will the new administration use Trump’s unexpected achievements to further its new-old priorities? It won’t be simple. The four normalization deals were fueled by shared enmity toward Iran and a blatant disregard for the Palestinians. Biden’s team will have to find a way to reverse the foreign policy paradigms of both Trump and Obama, if it wants to build on the successes of one to further the goals of the other. – Haaretz

Asia

Kabul’s deputy governor and his assistant were killed in a bombing in the Afghan capital Tuesday morning, Afghan security officials said. – Washington Post

South Korea on Monday banned the launching of propaganda leaflets into North Korea, drawing the criticism of rights activists and defiance from a prominent North Korean defector who said he would not stop sending messages to his homeland. – Reuters

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose” for the environment and their trading relationship. – Reuters

Taiwan may become a supplier of weapons to Western democracies, President Tsai Ing-wen said on Tuesday, praising the island’s ramped up weapons-design ability as she launched an advanced, missile-laden warship and commissioned a new minelayer. – Reuters

Peter Suciu writes: Although nothing has been formalized, the mere talks have been among the most progress made as Beijing was previously unwilling to even discuss the pulling back from the Finger areas of Pangong Tso, while it insisted that the Indian Army vacant the dominant heights. Now it seems with colder weather coming, cooler heads have prevailed. – The National Interest

Michael Rubin writes: That Pakistan should have relations with communist China is not the problem. After all, it was through Pakistan’s offices that Nixon-era “Ping Pong” diplomacy and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s secret trip to Beijing became possible. There is a qualitative difference, however, between maintaining good neighborly relations and the wholesale betrayal of both Pakistani sovereignty and, given the ongoing genocide against the Uyghurs, Islam as well. Perhaps not since Vidkun Quisling has there been a politician who has so willingly and enthusiastically sold out his country’s sovereignty. Sharif came close, but Khan has surpassed even his example. – The National Interest

Russia

Officers from a secret Russian spy unit with expertise in poisonous substances trailed the Russian opposition leader Aleksei A. Navalny for years and were nearby at the time he was exposed to a highly toxic nerve agent that almost killed him last summer, according to a report by Bellingcat, a research group that specializes in open-source investigations. – New York Times

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia congratulated Joseph R. Biden Jr. on Tuesday on having won the American presidential election — more than a month after the Democrat became the U.S. president-elect. – New York Times

The Russian Air Force has continued to remain on alert and ready to respond to alleged incursions near the nation’s borders. On Friday, a MiG-31 fighter scrambled to intercept a U.S. Air Force RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft approached the Russian borders over the neutral waters of the Bering Sea. – The National Interest

Russia has struck a deal with Sudan to establish a naval base in the country, as Moscow seeks to expand its military reach in the Middle East and North Africa. The deal, made public on Dec. 8, allows Russia to station four ships and up to 300 personnel at Port Sudan on the Red Sea as part of a 25-year agreement. It will be Russia’s first naval base in Africa. – Foreign Policy

Vladimir Kara-Murza writes: Analysts have been forecasting mass protests in Russia for 2024, the year Putin will probably seek another term in violation of constitutional limits. The Kremlin’s change of plan for the Duma election could bring the clock forward. And the test in September will be not just for the resilience of Russian civil society, but also for the West’s adherence to its principles. At a recent European Parliament hearing, Navalny urged Western leaders to refuse to recognize the results of the Duma vote if opposition candidates are blocked from the ballot. An election intended to showcase Putin’s public support for Joe Biden’s benefit might turn out to be the first major foreign policy test for the next U.S. leader. – Washington Post

Africa

Nigeria’s Boko Haram jihadist rebels have claimed responsibility for the abduction of hundreds of students in an attack on a boys school in northern Katsina State, a Nigerian online newspaper says. – Associated Press

Southern Africa’s leaders are meeting in the Mozambican capital of Maputo Monday to discuss ways to help fight the Islamist extremist rebels who have killed thousands of people and displaced tens of thousands in Mozambique’s gas-rich north. – Associated Press

Jabbing needles in prisoners’ genitals, pouring melted plastic on their skin and hanging them upside down for long periods: These are tortures allegedly being perpetrated by South Sudan’s National Security Service, according to an international human rights group. Electric shocks, gang rapes, abductions and killings are also abuses carried out by the security agency charged Human Rights Watch in a study launched Monday. – Associated Press

An attack blamed on Boko Haram killed 28 people and burned 800 homes in an attack in Niger’s Diffa region on Saturday, Nigerien authorities and the United Nations said. – Reuters

The Trump administration offered up to $850 million to American victims of terrorist attacks as part of efforts to save a deal with Sudan to establish full diplomatic ties with Israel. – The Hill

U.S. Africa Command showed it is not about to scale back the fight against Islamic terrorist group al Shabab in Somalia, releasing its first video of a targeted airstrike Dec. 10 as American soldiers prepare to leave the country at President Trump’s orders. – Washington Examiner

Ethiopia sent civil servants in Tigray back to work on Monday and ordered gun owners to disarm as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government sought to restore normality in the northern region after weeks of war. – Reuters

Mike Rogers writes: We should realize the diversity and challenges of these countries in Africa, and use all the levers of statecraft to enable economic development, build stronger education and health systems, and end political corruption. So a smart and comprehensive foreign policy toward Africa must be part of our national security and economic strategy. At the end of the day, it is part of the great power competition that the United States must win. – The Hill

Uriya Rosenman writes: Until Israel’s government finally leverages our business and technological advantage in favor of political processes vis-à-vis African countries, the private sector must seize the opportunity and lead the way. Israeli companies from various fields produce innovative and creative solutions regularly, many of them answer major pain-points which African countries face, and which China cannot solve. – Jerusalem Post

Cybersecurity

The Department of Homeland Security, the State Department and the National Institutes of Health on Monday joined the list of known victims of a months-long, highly sophisticated digital spying operation by Russia whose damage remains uncertain but is presumed to be extensive, experts say. – Washington Post

The far-reaching Russian hack that sent U.S. government and corporate officials scrambling in recent days appears to have been a quietly sophisticated bit of online spying. Investigators at cybersecurity firm FireEye, which itself was victimized in the operation, marveled that the meticulous tactics involved “some of the best operational security” its investigators had seen, using at least one piece of malicious software never previously detected. – Washington Post

Two-and-a-half-years after going into effect, the European Union’s new privacy law has its first fine for a U.S. tech company in a cross-border case—an overdue development, critics say. – Wall Street Journal

The reported cyber breach through an IT contractor’s software used by the military highlights the risks the Department of Defense takes when it increasingly must rely on third party vendors for digital services. – C4ISRNET

Joseph Marks writes: A Russian hacking campaign that breached the Treasury and Commerce departments and ran roughshod through critical companies across the globe is a final stain on the Trump administration’s cybersecurity legacy. […]It likely represents the largest known Russian data theft in half a decade and is a sign Trump administration efforts to constrain Russian hacking have been spotty at best. – Washington Post