Fdd's overnight brief

Hezbollah

Harsh rhetoric from Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah appeared to threaten further conflict after border unrest this week, but experts predict both sides will try to avoid escalation. – Agence France-Presse

Zvi Bar’el writes: Hezbollah can no longer portray itself as Lebanon’s savior, because the enemy isn’t Israel, but a shortage of bread and gasoline. […]True, Israel is threatening the Lebanese government and demanding that it stop Hezbollah from conducting military operations against it. But it is more likely that villages in the south will be the parties that actually show Hezbollah the limits of its power. – Haaretz  

Ron Ben-Yishai writes: The lack of sufficient financial and sanitary resources such as hospital beds will also surely prevent the government from successfully managing a security crisis. Not to mention the current political leadership crisis that bodes nothing but bad news during wartime. Therefore, the decision to show restraint was the right call. But if Nasrallah is arrogant and irresponsible enough to retaliate, action must be taken. A preemptive strike is the best way to get rid of the organization’s missiles, thus eliminating the threat and creating a deterrence. And while this was not the right time, Nasrallah is sure to give us more opportunities in the future. – Ynet

Turkey

The contest over newfound gas riches in the Eastern Mediterranean has triggered a slew of rival maritime claims, pushing the region’s main powers—all of them America’s partners or allies—toward open confrontation. – Wall Street Journal

Egypt said on Saturday that part of a seismic survey planned by Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean potentially encroached on waters where Cairo claims exclusive rights. – Reuters

In a July 14 article titled “Can Hagia Sophia Unites Russians and Turks?”, Petr Akopov, a lead commentator for the Russian news agency Ria.ru, argued that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had freed Turkey from the militant secularism of Ataturk in the same way that Russia had been liberated from the militant atheism of Communism. […]Leading foreign policy intellectual Fyodor Lukyanov agreed. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Nick Danforth writes: In truth, Erdogan welcomes international condemnation. He draws strength from his constant sparring with domestic and foreign foes, and the battles over Hasankeyf and Hagia Sophia fuel his posture of indignation and grievance. […]The mystery is how long such victories will be enough for Turkish voters—and what Erdogan will do when they aren’t. – Foreign Affairs

Yochanan Visser writes: As for the Muslim world, Erdogan is trying to become the leader of the Ummah, the entire Islamic nation, and that’s why he dared to convert the Haga Sophia church into a mosque. That is also why he is vowing to launch a holy war on Israel under the pretext that the al-Aqsa mosque must be ‘liberated’ – Arutz Sheva 

Iraq

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi on Friday called an early general election for June 6, 2021, roughly a year ahead of when it would normally be held. – Reuters

Jason Dominguez remembers vividly his last conversation with David Kreuter, as they were doing an overnight security watch from a rooftop in western Iraq. […]The Columbus, Ohio-based Reserve unit was among the hardest-hit of the war in Iraq, losing 23 men after 180 deployed in early 2005. They held a reunion in 2015, and another was planned this month but had to be canceled amid coronavirus restrictions. – Associated Press

Murad Ismael and Nadine Maenza write: The Iraqi government, with the support of the U.S. and the international community, must address issues that still remain in both Sinjar as well as the entire Nineveh Plains, home to Christians, Yazidis, and other religious communities in Iraq. Stabilization and economic prosperity should be a priority if we want to help Iraq build a just society where everyone is treated equally, especially the weakest. – Washington Examiner 

Middle East & North Africa

The United Arab Emirates became the first Arab country to open a nuclear power plant on Saturday, raising concerns about the long-term consequences of introducing more nuclear programs to the Middle East. – New York Times

Algeria’s president phoned his Turkish counterpart last month to secure the return of a fugitive military official who fled Algeria days after its powerful army chief died in December, a top Algerian security source said. – Reuters 

Egypt’s president has approved new legal amendments that further exclude any serious competitors from elections and give the military greater control over civilian affairs, a leading rights group said on Thursday. – Associated Press 

Yemen’s Houthi rebels claim they shot down a U.S.-made drone over the country’s northern border with Saudi Arabia. The kingdom and the U.S. military on Monday did not immediately acknowledge losing a drone. – Associated Press

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Whether it can transform this into increased regional influence to compete with Iran’s slow digestion of Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen – and the Turkey-Qatar axis that seeks to export its brand of Muslim Brotherhood-infused extremism to places like Gaza, northern Syria and Libya – is the major question. – Jerusalem Post 

China

The Trump administration announced sanctions Friday on a powerful government entity and two senior officials who have helped manage it, citing systemic human rights abuses against predominantly Muslim ethnic minorities in the Xinjiang region in China’s far northwest. – New York Times

President Trump’s promise this week to bar the popular, Chinese-owned TikTok from operating in the United States is the latest move in his increasingly hostile posture toward Beijing that echoes a broader, anti-China stance within the Republican Party ahead of the November elections. – Washington Post

President Trump has blamed China for the coronavirus pandemic and the ensuing economic crisis, but as the White House looks to stabilize small businesses in the United States, the rescue effort has had an unintended beneficiary: Chinese companies. – New York Times

For weeks, as Beijing quickly drafted and imposed a stringent new national security law for Hong Kong, many in the territory feared the rules would be used to intimidate the opposition, but hoped they would not presage a broad crackdown. Now those hopes have been dashed. Brushing aside international criticism and sanctions, the Chinese government has used the letter and spirit of the law to crush Hong Kong’s pro-democracy opposition with surprising ferocity. – New York Times

China’s embassy in Germany condemned Berlin’s suspension of its extradition treaty with Hong Kong, a move Germany said was a response to the postponement of an election in the Chinese city. – Reuters 

Editorial: All of this violates the treaty China signed with the British in 1984 promising legal autonomy for Hong Kong until 2047. Hong Kong is dying as a free society, and America should offer its 7.5 million talented and entrepreneurial people a refuge with green cards and open arms. – Wall Street Journal

Jackson Diehl writes: If that election brings about a new U.S. administration under Joe Biden, a first order of foreign policy business will be a China reset. Only the fixing will need to be done not so much with Beijing, but with the would-be alliance against it that Trump has done his best to sabotage. – Washington Post 

James Stavridis writes: Pompeo may be right about China’s bad behavior, but he seems unaware that more cooperation a key to changing things. The alternative is stumbling into a new Cold War. – Bloomberg 

Ross Andersen writes: Walking in their midst, I kept thinking about the contingency of history: The political systems that constrain a technology during its early development profoundly shape our shared global future. We have learned this from our adventures in carbon-burning. Much of the planet’s political trajectory may depend on just how dangerous China’s people imagine AI to be in the hands of centralized power. Until they secure their personal liberty, at some unimaginable cost, free people everywhere will have to hope against hope that the world’s most intelligent machines are made elsewhere. – The Atlantic 

Asia

Tokyo 2020 organisers on Monday unveiled the new schedule for the coronavirus-postponed Paralympics next year, with only minor modifications to the original calendar for the event. – Agence France-Presse

One of Australia’s most prestigious universities has been accused of censorship following its decision to delete social media posts promoting an article critical of Beijing’s crackdown on Hong Kong. – Financial Times 

Clara Ferreira Marques and Matthew Brooker write: Hong Kong’s rapid dismantling of its institutions has been unparalleled. Even Putin took years to mount his assault. Add in the background of a grim economic situation and the mishandling of a public health emergency, and the alarm among international businesses is only likely to grow. – Bloomberg  

Arye Gut writes: Relations between the two, as well as between Azerbaijan and Azerbaijani Jews, cannot be explained by simple mutual interest. Common values and common history permeate modern interstate relations. Both countries are enriched with human ties and determination to live in diverse and religiously tolerant societies. – Jerusalem Post 

Europe

As Belarusian state television aired footage of the arrests of 33 suspected Russian mercenaries near Minsk, the anchor explained why the men raised suspicions: They weren’t drinking alcohol or visiting entertainment spots and wore plain military-style clothing. […]The detentions on Wednesday have expanded an unusual run of tension between Belarus and Russia, once tight allies that have drifted apart as Belarus’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, tests policies independent of Moscow’s backing. – Washington Post 

France will push for financial sanctions under the EU’s 750 billion euro ($880 billion) coronavirus recovery fund against states that undermine fundamental human rights, its junior European affairs minister told the Financial Times newspaper on.ft.com/33iEmzj. – Reuters

The German defence minister said on Friday that she would hold talks after the summer with the premiers of states affected by U.S. plans to withdraw about 12,000 troops from Germany to see how the national armed forces can help those regions. – Reuters

Ukraine will ask Belarus to extradite 28 people, including nine Ukrainian citizens, whom Kyiv suspects of participating in the conflict in eastern Ukraine, reported the Interfax Ukraine news agency on Friday citing Ukraine’s General Prosecutor’s office. – Reuters

Liz Truss, the UK’s international trade secretary, will express frustration at American officials this week over “punitive” tariffs levied on British goods in her first face-to-face meeting since negotiations for a trade agreement began. – Financial Times  

The United States will station a permanent garrison of troops in Poland, according to an agreement reached today between Washington and Warsaw. The announcement of the pact came just days after the Pentagon announced it was pulling 12,00 troops out of Germany. – Breaking Defense

Vladimir Kobets and David J. Kramer write: In a free and fair election, Belarusans would likely vote for a change in leadership and a shift in their country’s orientation toward the West. Neither Lukashenko nor Moscow wants that to happen. The stakes are high, and Western leaders should make clear that they stand for a free and fair process and with the people of Belarus, no matter what. – Washington Post 

Charlene Barshefsky writes: If Europe persists in its approach, US policymakers will have no choice but to treat it as a strategic threat. In the near term, it is difficult to imagine that the US will be able to strike a meaningful trade deal with the EU — a priority of both sides for many years — so long as the EU pursues the techno-nationalist moves aimed at the US. The Europeans need to reverse course before the economic and geopolitical damage cannot be undone. – Financial Times

The Americas

Members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee said Friday they were “extremely alarmed” by assertions that the American ambassador in Brazil had signaled to Brazilian officials they could help get President Trump re-elected by changing their trade policies. – New York Times

The Trump administration is willing to consider dropping its insistence on pursuing the death penalty to secure British cooperation in the prosecution of two admitted Islamic State detainees accused of involvement in the executions of American, British and other foreign hostages in Syria. – Washington Post 

The Supreme Court declined, 5-4, Friday to halt work on the border wall the Trump administration has been building without authorization from Congress, likely ensuring that more than 200 miles of the president’s signature project will be completed before litigation over its legality is resolved. – Wall Street Journal

US President Donald Trump called Sunday for Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev to be re-sentenced to death after an appeals court overturned the death penalty. – Agence France-Presse

As the November 3 presidential vote nears, there are fresh signs that the American electoral system is again under attack from foreign adversaries. – Associated Press 

The affluent gated community of Basti Hills has long inspired speculation and envy among Iranians. Its name a tribute to California’s Beverly Hills, the development’s luxury mansions — complete with swimming pools, jacuzzis and stunning views over the surrounding mountains — are home to some of the wealthiest and best-connected figures in Iranian society. – Financial Times

U.S. officials frowned upon the opening of an Iranian supermarket in Venezuela’s capital, saying Thursday that any presence of Iran in the Western Hemisphere is “not something we look very favorably on.” – Associated Press

A coalition of political parties in Venezuela led by U.S.-backed Juan Guaidó said Sunday that it won’t participate in upcoming congressional elections called by officials loyal to President Nicolás Maduro. – Associated Press

Defense

The Defense Department announced Sunday that controversial nominee Anthony Tata has been appointed to fill the Pentagon’s No. 2 policy job, in a move that some members of Congress will see as circumventing the Senate’s confirmation process. – Defense News

The U.S. Navy is taking major steps in an attempt to shake off years of false starts and setbacks with the Littoral Combat Ship program, an effort Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday said he’d oversee on his watch. – Defense News

The Army’s first iteration of new network tools, known as Capability Set ’21, was heavily influenced by existing network gaps identified by the 82nd Airborne on more than a year’s worth of deployments. – C4ISRNET

The Pentagon’s top IT official provided an update July 30 on a wide range of ongoing initiatives underway at the department as it continues to grapple with a remote workforce amid the coronavirus pandemic. – C4ISRNET

Up and coming U.S. government launch provider Rocket Lab says it has identified the anomaly behind a July 4 in-flight failure of one of its rockets, and the Federal Aviation Administration has cleared the company to resume launches, the company announced July 31. – C4ISRNET

The space economy continued its decade-long expansion in 2019, growing more than $9 billion to hit $423.8 billion, according to Space Foundation. This represents a 2.2 percent increase from the 2018 estimate of $414.75 billion. – Breaking Defense

Lt. Gen. David Deptula (ret.) and Douglas A. Birkey write: If past DoD budget cuts are any indicator, DoD budget “experts” will once again resort to their traditional monetary spreadsheets focused on unit cost and service-focused budget columns. Leadership from the very highest levels is crucial to ensure the very best options are preserved and prioritized. Joint cost-per-effect analysis is what will ensure a given amount of money will yield the most value at a time when it matters the most. – Defense News