Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Iran and Russia are forging tighter ties than ever, as their international isolation drives the two staunch American foes toward more trade and military cooperation, alarming Washington. – Wall Street Journal

The United States and Iran have found a way to address the U.N. nuclear watchdog’s investigations of Tehran’s atomic program that allows both to claim victory for now but delays a final resolution, according to three sources familiar with the matter. – Reuters

A German tourist has been detained in Iran, the German foreign ministry said on Saturday, declining to give further details beyond saying the man was receiving consular assistance. – Reuters

Iran’s president warned Monday that any roadmap to restore Tehran’s tattered nuclear deal with world powers must see international inspectors end their probe on man-made uranium particles found at undeclared sites in the country. – Associated Press

Iran said back-and-forth exchanges with the US over a European Union proposal to revive the nuclear deal will drag on into next month. – Bloomberg

The US and Iran remain at loggerheads over key details of an emerging deal to revive a landmark nuclear agreement and may need several weeks to resolve their differences, according to officials familiar with the talks. – Bloomberg

French President Emmanuel Macron said Friday that the fate of a revived nuclear deal is up to Iran, and that an agreement would be “useful” even if it doesn’t settle everything. – Agence France-Presse

Despite being a Sunni Muslim, Kalim admired what had happened in 1979 in Iran – a predominantly Shia Muslim country. He viewed the revolution as having freed Islam from Western domination by overthrowing the Western-backed Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. – BBC

Prime Minister Yair Lapid was surprised by Mossad chief David Barnea’s harsh warnings about an emerging Iran nuclear deal between the Islamic Republic and world powers, according to Friday reports. – Times of Israel

Iran Army Ground Forces Commander General Kioumars Heydari was quoted as having said that this drone is capable of carrying out strikes with either the Almas missile or the Ghaem bomb. Iran often boasts of its military accomplishments, though it is not always possible to say with certainty that it is telling the truth about those accomplishments. – Arutz Sheva

The Iranian Greco-Roman wrestling champion Mohammad Ali Geraei praised Adolf Hitler as an inspirational leader. – Jerusalem Post

The draft agreement for a revived nuclear deal with Iran outlines a timeframe of 165 days from the date of signing before the treaty goes into full effect. According to the understandings that appear in the European Union’s draft proposal presented last month, the treaty will be completed only after four rounds designed to establish trust between the parties. – Haaretz 

If no last-minute problems crop up, Iran is expected to deliver its response to American reservations about Tehran’s latest demands by the end of the week. Several Iranian lawmakers estimated that the expected American response may leave no other choice than to engage in a further round of talks to “polish” and “explicate” the final version of the accord. The working hypothesis is that the remaining controversies will not be an obstacle to signing the agreement. – Haaretz 

On “day zero,” the day on which the deal would be signed, the Joint Commission founded when the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as the Iran nuclear deal is known, was formed in 2015, would convene without the US, which would only be able to join the commission 165 days later. – Jerusalem Post

Russia has significantly ramped up gold exports to China as Western governments closed their markets to the precious metal over the war in Ukraine, media outlet RBC reported Friday citing Chinese customs data. – The Moscow Times

Dov S. Zakheim writes: The White House should act quickly to brief Congress and should proceed with extreme caution before it enters into any undertakings with Iran that could result in even more instability in the Eastern Mediterranean than already is the case. – The Hill 

Michael Rubin writes: Wars in the Middle East erupt not because of oil or water but rather because of overconfidence. This is the real danger. Biden may believe he is furthering diplomacy, but by convincing Tehran that it can act without consequence, he is setting the stage for a real “forever war” across the region. – Washington Examiner

Seth J. Frantzman writes: With Russia distracted by the Ukraine war and angered by close ties between the US, Israel and the West; Russia could try to let Iran conduct more operations in Syria which threaten Israel. In addition there could be more Russia-Iran defense cooperation which could impact drone sales and also Central Asia. This could enable Iran to increase its defense abilities in missile, space and drones. All of this could lead to more Iranian threats either from Syria, Lebanon, Yemen or other places. – Jerusalem Post

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Iran’s success with the Mohajer 6 and other larger drones, and putting missiles on them, is still a major hurdle for Tehran, especially if it wants to export them in the future. Iran has learned from Turkey’s success exporting the Bayraktar that it needs a consistent platform that can be armed. For that reason, it wants its capabilities to be publicized in foreign reports. – Jerusalem Post

Yonah Jeremy Bob writes: It will be interesting to see if Lapid stays in office past the November election, and whether at some point he will strike a more independent tone from Barnea. Some of this may come assuming Lapid and Defense Minister Benny Gantz follow through soon on appointing a new IDF chief of their choosing. At this critical juncture in the Iran nuclear standoff, Barnea will have an almost free hand regardless of what the piece of paper says on which representatives from Washington and Tehran sign their names. – Jerusalem Post

Salem Alketbi writes: Iran has not hesitated to make bad use of it, which undermines regional and global security, since the beginning of its ascent up the nuclear ladder. The threat will not recede or be pushed aside. It will run its course, and the next one will be even worse, especially given the new international balance of power, international polarization, Europe’s need for Iranian oil, and the need of all competing international powers to engage Iran, which plays well in this tense environment to achieve its strategic objectives. – Jerusalem Post

Catherine Perez-Shakdam writes: Like its Iranian master, IHRC declares its struggle to be one of liberation in the face of injustice – on the basis, of course, that such justice is seen through the lens of its fundamentalism. For an organization that proffers its dedication to fairness and equality, sectarianism remains a recurrent theme, so does its call to restrict freedom of the press and free speech. But that is not what should worry us… if only! – Jerusalem Post

Israel

Israeli troops clashed with Palestinian gunmen while operating in the northern West Bank town of Qabatiya on Monday morning, the military said. Palestinian media reports said soldiers surrounded a building in the town near Jenin where several suspects were holed up and called on them to surrender. – Times of Israel

In a rare joint TV interview, five former chiefs of staff of the Israel Defense Forces discussed their decades-long efforts to thwart Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, with several saying that they believe that a breakdown in internal social cohesion presents a greater threat to Israel than Iran becoming a nuclear threshold state. – Times of Israel

Shots were fired Sunday night at two Israel Defense Forces positions near the northern West Bank city of Nablus and the Palestinian town of Silwad, the military said. – Times of Israel

Mossad chief David Barnea will travel to Washington next week as part of Israel’s intensifying efforts to shape the emerging nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers, which in its current form both Barnea and senior government figures have lambasted as a bad deal. – Times of Israel

Israel and the US are looking to set up a meeting between Prime Minister Yair Lapid and US President Joe Biden next month, as Washington appears nearer to signing onto a renewed nuclear agreement with Iran, according to a Saturday report. – Times of Israel

As Tehran and Washington review the European Union’s latest nuclear deal proposal, Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid denounced the draft on Sunday as a “bad agreement,” claiming it does not reflect what he had talked about with U.S. President Joe Biden during his visit to Jerusalem last month. – Haaretz

Editorial: Far from transforming Palestinian refugees into self-sufficient individuals, UNRWA has fostered dependency and a culture of entitlement; given the Palestinians no motivation to return to the negotiating table in good faith; and furthered false dreams of a “right of return,” to destroy Israel, instead of building lives based on peace and economic security alongside the Jewish state. – Jerusalem Post

Barry Shaw writes: Even when Israel treats Palestinian Arabs with respect, we are portrayed as doing something devious. Instead, Israel should be applauded because this new service offers non-Israeli Arabs a far more convenient and cheaper way of flying to foreign destinations. Instead, one Jordanian parliamentarian, Khalil Attieh, threatened that any Palestinian Arab using Ramon Airport should be banned from entering Jordan. – Arutz Sheva

Gideon Levy writes: Iran certainly didn’t intend this, and neither did Israel, but in recent years nothing has served the Israeli occupation so much and so efficiently as the Iranian threat. Now all that’s left is only to hope that the agreement with Iran doesn’t take the matter off the agenda, perish the thought. Israel needs it like air to breathe. – Haaretz

Sajjad Safaei writes: This might further erode Israeli deterrence vis-à-vis Iran and its allies, thus unsettling a longstanding tenet of Israeli strategic thinking: that Israel must at all times be able and willing to eradicate even the most embryonic challenge to its military superiority deep inside enemy territory. But this is a far cry from constituting a serious and immediate threat to Israel’s existence. – Middle East Institute

Syria

Militias backed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards force attacked a U.S. military base in southern Syria with drones recently and on the same day, a different base used by the U.S.-led coalition near Syria’s eastern border with Iraq came under rocket fire. – New York Times

U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish security forces have launched a new operation targeting Islamic State sleeper cells in a large northeastern detention camp where violence has reached record levels. – Reuters

Russia forces based in Syria on Friday said four Israeli jets had launched a total of four cruise missiles and 16 guided aerial bombs against a research facility in the city of Masyaf on Thursday, Russian agencies reported. – Reuters

Deadly skirmishes have been on the rise in recent days between U.S. forces and Iran-aligned militias in Syria’s oil-rich east, where both have carved out strategic footholds […] The United States says its presence there aims to ensure the lasting defeat of IS, but skirmishes with Iran-backed groups have sporadically broken out over the last five years. – Reuters

Satellite imagery showed widespread destruction at a giant military facility in western Syria targeted in a recent Israeli airstrike, and the head of a Syrian opposition war monitor said Sunday the strike targeted a depot housing hundreds of middle-range missiles for Iran-backed fighters. – Associated Press

Russia has shipped its advanced S-300 air defense system in Syria back home amid its invasion of Ukraine, an Israeli satellite intelligence firm said Friday. – Times of Israel

New details of the 2012 massacre in the Syrian town of Daraya, during the early stages of the country’s civil war, have emerged in a comprehensive report issued on Thursday. – Times of Israel

Iraq

Turkey’s military and intelligence unit “neutralised” nine members of the banned Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in operations in northern Iraq, the Defence Ministry and state-run media said on Saturday. – Reuters

A small homemade explosive detonated on Friday near Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone as an Australian diplomatic convoy made its way into the area, two security officials told The Associated Press. – Associated Press

Iraq’s caretaker Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi warned Saturday that the political crisis in the country is threatening security achievements made in past years. Al-Kadhimi’s warning is a clear indication of the dangers of one of Iraq’s worst political crises since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. It is the result of disagreements between followers of influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and rival Iran-backed groups since last year’s parliamentary elections. – Associated Press

Baghdad has threatened legal action against international buyers of crude oil from Iraq’s Kurdistan region, the latest move in an escalating row over oil exports. – Financial Times

Munqith Dagher writes: It is evident that the Iraqi political regime is on the verge of collapse, but the bigger question remains as to whether Sadr and his followers will be able to topple the regime with their broad popular coalition in the short term, or whether this be pushed further into the future—and perhaps into the hands of another popular force—if the Sadrists fail to take advantage of their present opportunity. – Washington Institute

Egypt

An economic crisis spurred by the Ukraine war is casting darkness upon Egypt’s streets, as the government dims lights to free up energy for export and bolster hard currency reserves. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had an immediate impact on Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat importer which has relied on the ex-Soviet states for over 80 percent of its grain. – Agence France-Presse

The IDF spokesperson Brig. Gen. Ran Kochav said on Sunday that the military has increased its success rates in thwarting drug and weapon smuggling attempts across the Jordanian and Egyptian borders. – Ynet

Women wearing hijabs (Muslim headscarves) are being discriminated against by businesses in Egypt, a BBC Arabic investigation has discovered. The evidence appears to violate Egypt’s constitution, which bans discrimination based on religion, sex, race or social class. Since 2015, some Egyptian women wearing a hijab have taken to social media to complain about such treatment. – BBC

Gulf States

When the United Arab Emirates forged diplomatic relations with Israel in 2020, it redrew the geopolitical contours of a region in which Israel had previously been shunned. On a practical level, it allowed Israeli citizens to live and work in Dubai. – New York Times

The United Arab Emirates tried in 2017 to get a former Republican congressman appointed as US ambassador, but the plan was scuttled after he was arrested on fraud charges, prosecutors said in a separate case against a onetime fundraiser for Donald Trump. – Bloomberg

The United Arab Emirates is aligned with Saudi Arabia’s thinking on crude oil markets, a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Friday. – Reuters

Kuwait will hold a parliamentary election on Sept. 29, state news agency KUNA reported, after the Gulf state’s crown prince moved to dissolve parliament in a bid to resolve a political standoff between the government and the elected legislature. – Reuters

Middle East & North Africa

The leaders of France and Algeria took an important step Saturday toward mending relations scarred by disputes over migration and the legacy of colonial crimes, agreeing to cooperate on energy, security and reassessing their joint history. – Associated Press

Tunisia said Saturday it would recall its ambassador from Morocco for consultations, a day after the kingdom did the same in response to Tunisia’s president hosting the Polisario movement’s head. – Agence France-Presse

Israeli security forces busted a gun-smuggling network along the Jordanian border last weekend, arresting its leader and several members and seizing 10 handguns, law enforcement officials said Sunday. – Times of Israel

China

Wearing a laboratory coat, China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, inspected a subsidiary of Yangtze Memory Technologies Company, a national semiconductor company based in Wuhan. It was April 2018, shortly after the U.S. government had barred the Chinese telecommunications firm ZTE from doing business with American suppliers. – New York Times

The U.S. and China have reached a tentative agreement to allow U.S. regulators to inspect the audits of Chinese companies whose stocks are traded on U.S. exchanges. In a long-festering dispute, U.S. regulators have threatened to boot a number of Chinese companies off the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq if China doesn’t permit inspections. – Associated Press

Chinese state media outlet the Global Times on Saturday praised an agreement reached between Beijing and Washington over the auditing of U.S.-listed Chinese companies as a “symbolic case” and a “useful lesson” for both nations. – Reuters

Russia and China will embark on a series of military exercises this week, a sign of Moscow’s deepening ties with Beijing and of the Kremlin’s desire to project a “business as usual” image despite the mounting costs of its war in Ukraine. – Financial Times

China is attempting to increase its naval warship capabilities by restarting its mass production of guided-missile destroyers, according to multiple reports. – Washington Examiner

Editorial: It isn’t enough for the US simply to reaffirm that its one-China policy hasn’t changed. Biden needs to find a way to agree with Xi on a set of basic principles and commit to observing them. The aim should be a mutual understanding that Taiwan is a long-term issue to be managed, rather than a near-term problem to be solved. – Bloomberg

Mordechai Chaziza writes: Maintaining a technological edge is critical for the United States to manage the rivalry with China successfully. Thus, U.S.-China competition will become increasingly entwined with rivalries between China and U.S. allies and partners in the Middle East. When managing relations with China, the Biden administration must consider the independent dynamics of those separate rivalries. – The National Interest

Asia

Ridge Alkonis is serving a three-year prison term in Japan for a car crash that left a Japanese man and woman dead. As the United States’ efforts to free Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan from Russia make headlines amid the heightened tensions of the war in Ukraine, the Alkonis family hopes their fight will draw attention to detained Americans around the world — those held not just by adversaries but also allies. – Washington Post

The death of a Harvard transgender student in Indonesian custody has caused uproar in his native Peru and the United States, with authorities in Lima pressing for an investigation into the circumstances of his detention and death after the public backlash. – Washington Post

The U.S. Navy said that two of its warships sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Sunday, the first such passage by American ships since China began large-scale military exercises in response to a visit to Taiwan by Speaker Nancy Pelosi early this month. – New York Times

The passage of two U.S. warships on Sunday through international waters in the Taiwan Strait is “very consistent” with the U.S. “one China policy” and seeking a free and open Indo-Pacific, a White House official said. – Reuters

China’s military said on Sunday it was monitoring U.S. Navy vessels sailing through the Taiwan Strait, maintaining a high alert and ready to defeat any provocations. – Reuters

Taiwan’s defence ministry said it had detected 21 Chinese aircraft and five Chinese ships operating around Taiwan on Saturday, as Beijing continues its military drills near the island. – Reuters

The head of Taiwan’s main opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT) defended its “brave” outreach to Beijing on Sunday after a senior official visited China on a trip condemned by Taipei’s government and which upset even some party members. – Reuters

The head of Taiwan’s China-policy making Mainland Affairs Council will visit the United States to meet officials and speak at think-tank events to help garner international support for the island, his department said on Friday. – Reuters

For nearly 70 years an imagined line running down the Taiwan Strait between Taiwan and China has helped keep the peace but the so-called median line is looking increasingly meaningless as China’s modernised navy asserts its strength. – Reuters

A U.S. coast guard cutter conducting patrols as part of an international mission to prevent illegal fishing was recently unable to get clearance for a scheduled port call in Solomon Islands, an incident that comes amid growing concerns of Chinese influence on the Pacific nation. – Associated Press

Sending a murder suspect to face trial in China could end up costing New Zealand taxpayers millions of dollars because officials would need to post an extra diplomat to Shanghai to monitor his treatment, documents exclusively obtained by The Associated Press show. – Associated Press

The State Department this week approved a $1.95 billion sale to Australia of 40 UH-60M Black Hawk helicopters, which will replace the Australian Defence Force’s troubled MRH90 Taipan utility helicopters. – Defense News

Editorial: The point isn’t to be provocative. It’s to underscore freedom of navigation and the U.S. willingness to defend it. As it builds its own blue-water navy, China has designs on a network of global bases and on turning the South China Sea and the entire Western Pacific into a region of Chinese dominance. Sooner or later China is likely to declare the Taiwan Strait off-limits without its permission, and the U.S. urgently needs a bigger Navy to counter that threat. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: On this issue, symbolism is substance, especially to China; the question, as always, is to maximize deterrence for Taiwan while minimizing unnecessary provocation of China. The bill’s authors are right that recent history — especially the Russian invasion of Ukraine — shows appeasement doesn’t work and “provocation” is the aggressor’s all-purpose excuse to lash out. – Washington Post

Gearoid Reidy writes: Japan will eventually resume full-scale tourism, with the country soon to scrap a pre-departure PCR test requirement and politicians suggesting visa waivers will return next. But even when it does, there’s little hope that Chinese tourists, who made up a third of annual visitors, will be among those returning. Miniso’s about-face might only be the first sign that Asia’s two largest economies risk drifting further apart. – Bloomberg

Mohammed Soliman, Pierre Morcos, And C. Raja Mohan write: This can then grow into a format capable of engaging on a more global level by coordinating with other issue-based transregional groups, such as Israel-India-United Arab Emirates-United States and the Quad. By doing so, France, Egypt, and India would contribute to an emerging and promising trend of greater integration among the littoral states of Eurasia. – War on the Rocks

Africa

So when Joana Gomes, now a lawmaker in the West African country of Guinea-Bissau, heard about the war between Russia and Ukraine, her allegiance was clear from the start: It would be with Russia, although she sometimes slips and still calls it the Soviet Union. – New York Times

An Ethiopian government airstrike ripped through a kindergarten in the northern Tigray region on Friday, killing at least seven people including several children, medics said, as the hunger-stricken region plunged into a new round of fighting. – New York Times

African heads of state, representatives of international organizations and private business leaders gathered in Tunisia on Saturday for the Tokyo International Conference on African Development, a triennial event launched by Japan to promote growth and security in Africa. – Associated Press

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida Saturday pledged $30 billion over three years for Africa in a virtual address to a development conference in Tunis aiming to counter China’s growing continental influence. – Agence France-Presse

Sudanese journalists have formed the country’s first independent professional union for decades, in what campaigners said was an important step towards re-establishing freedoms after a military coup. – Reuters

Unidentified gunmen killed six people and wounded two others in an attack on a convoy from the Boungou gold mine in eastern Burkina Faso, the army said on Saturday. – Reuters

Nigeria’s state oil company has hired a company owned by former militant Tompolo, whose movement’s attacks on facilities in the early 2000s crippled oil production, to protect installations and tackle rampant theft, his spokesman said. – Reuters

K. Riva Levinson writes: And no U.S. emergency humanitarian assistance program, however generous, will fill the void of a bold U.S. trade agenda and its potential to drive private sector-led growth in Africa and at home. As for me, I’m not discouraged — at least not yet. The Africa Leaders’ Summit is four months away. There’s still time. – The Hill

United States

Intelligence officers will scour sensitive documents seized from Donald Trump’s Florida resort this month for potential compromises of national security. Avril Haines, US director of national intelligence, has told members of Congress that her office will lead a review into what FBI agents took from Mar-a-Lago as part of their investigation into whether the former president broke the law in his handling of those documents. – Financial Times

The United States plans to name an ambassador at large for the Arctic, reflecting the region’s growing strategic and commercial importance as its shrinking opens up new sea lanes and vast oil and mineral resources. – Reuters

Stephen Collinson writes: Given the sensitive nature of the material under discussion, it appears unlikely that the review will do much to add to the public’s understanding of the extraordinary circumstances of a search of a former president’s home. That means that the political fallout from the operation is only likely to take on a more extreme cast as the midterm elections approach and is likely to further deepen the nation’s divides over Trump, which he is managing to further widen even while out of office. – CNN

Defense

The Western military alliance NATO must boost its role in the region around the North Pole given Russia’s recent military activities there, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said. – Politico

The US Navy christened its latest Ghost Fleet Overlord unmanned surface vehicle, Mariner, during a small ceremony on Tuesday, putting the service on a path to ramp up autonomy experimentation with its fleet of USVs. – Jerusalem Post

The future makeup of the Marine Corps was at the center of discussion during an online event hosted by the Brookings Institution Friday morning. – Defense News

David Ignatius writes: America’s wars in the Middle East took a terrible toll. It’s good that one result is a new code that says, in the words of Austin’s directive last week: “The protection of civilians is a strategic priority as well as a moral imperative.” War changes countries, usually for the worse. But here’s one change that’s for the better. – Washington Post

Michael D. Lumpkin and Peter L. Levin write: Unless and until we unravel this queer policy imbalance — near defenselessness against hardware zero-days, reliance on offensive capabilities as defensive deterrence, and the incessant intrusions we already endure because we know less about our exposure than our enemies do — we could find ourselves in a hot war we could have avoided with better imagination and real alternatives for our leaders. – The Hill

Douglas Ligor writes: International and multinational institutions, diplomatic processes, and binding international agreements are effective tools that can be employed to both reduce the existing dangers in space and preserve a sustainable space in the future for the entire global community. – War on the Rocks