Fdd's overnight brief

Afghanistan

More than 100 people were killed, including at least 13 U.S. service members and 90 Afghans, at the Kabul airport Thursday when two blasts ripped through crowds trying to enter the American-controlled facility, disrupting the final push of the U.S.-led evacuation effort. – Wall Street Journal 

However, the Islamist movement’s victory in Afghanistan has elevated its most radical and violent branch, the Haqqani network. – Wall Street Journal 

President Biden on Thursday confronted the most volatile crisis of his young presidency, the deaths of at least 13 Americans in Afghanistan that threatened to undermine his credentials as a seasoned global leader and a steady hand. – Washington Post 

Condolences and condemnation poured in from world leaders following the twin blasts outside Kabul’s airport Thursday that left dozens dead or wounded. The Taliban, Afghanistan’s de facto ruler, said it launched an investigation of the attack. – Washington Post 

Evacuation flights from Afghanistan resumed with new urgency on Friday, a day after two suicide bombings targeted the thousands of desperate people fleeing the Taliban takeover. – Associated Press 

Sahar is one of the many groups suspending operations in Afghanistan in the wake of the Taliban takeover and ensuing violence. – NPR 

The spokesman and head of foreign relations for Afghan resistance leader Ahmad Massoud said the Biden administration has not been in touch with the group since Taliban insurgents seized control of Afghanistan this month. – Washington Examiner 

U.S. officials reportedly provided the Taliban with a list of people to grant entry to at Hamid Karzai International Airport — a decision with potentially deadly consequences. – Washington Examiner 

Most of the 1,000 American citizens known to be in Afghanistan “are nearly or already out of the country,” according to Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s team. – Washington Examiner 

The suicide bombing at Kabul’s airport is crystalizing a harsh reality for aid groups and U.S. policymakers: thousands of Afghan allies are likely to be left behind on Aug. 31 when the American evacuation is set to end under President Biden’s deadline. – The Hill 

Editorial: But the Kabul airport massacre compounds the humiliation of the botched Afghan withdrawal and will further embolden jihadists. Mr. Biden is telling Americans that Afghanistan won’t again become a terror haven, but it already is. The hundreds of jihadists released from prisons with the Taliban victory are already on the attack. More Americans will become targets—and far beyond the borders of Afghanistan. – Wall Street Journal 

Editorial: The future agenda for a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan and its relations with the world now includes accountability for what has happened. The United States should take swift retaliation on ISIS-K, whose deed certainly reminds, as if there were any doubt, that terrorism threats still do exist in, and emanate from, the Afghan territory that U.S. troops are about to abandon. […]New questions can, and should, be raised about the wisdom of his decision to withdraw and the manner in which he and his team have executed it. – Washington Post 

Editorial: Who miscalculated how quickly the Afghan government would collapse? Who decided that giving up Bagram Airfield and operating out of Kabul airport was the best option? Who decided to trust the Taliban to provide security? Somebody made these decisions and must be held accountable. For starters, Austin and Milley must resign. – Washington Examiner 

Josh Rogin writes: Yes, the United States will save billions by not arming the Afghan National Army (problematic partner that it was). But now we face the costs of dealing with the fallout, which already includes caring for tens of thousands of new refugees. The United States undermined its credibility with its allies, damaged its ability to earn the trust of future local partners and abandoned millions of innocent people it professed to care about to a cruel fate. Meanwhile, Taliban-ruled Afghanistan is already becoming a haven for terrorist groups of all stripes. – Washington Post 

David Ignatius writes: And while the CIA warned that the Afghan government was shaky, even pessimists thought it might not fall until October or November. Biden sought to calm that discord Thursday with an embrace of a military that is grieving. But rest assured: When the histories are written, there will be enough blame for all to share. For today, too much sorrow. – Washington Post 

Mark Mazzetti, Julian E. Barnes and Adam Goldman write: Any terrorist attack originating from Afghanistan would expose Mr. Biden to fierce criticism from his political opponents that it was a result of his decision to pull American troops from the country — yet another factor that is likely to bring intense White House pressure on spy agencies to keep a laser focus on Afghanistan. – New York Times 

Nolan Peterson writes: By giving the Afghans a taste of democracy for 20 years, we have sown the expectation of freedom in their minds. Taliban leaders can try to suppress it, but the desire for freedom is an immutable part of the human heart. Freedom is always worth fighting for, and plenty of dark forces like the Soviets have foundered in the end, even after gaining power. The Taliban will be no exception. – Wall Street Journal 

Peggy Noonan writes: But what if we’d gotten Tora Bora right? Think of what might have followed. Bin Laden and his lieutenants captured or dead, an insult answered. Maybe a few more months in Afghanistan for America while the bad guys were fully, truly broken. […]Human, ragged and clear. What would have followed? Who knows? But it’s hard to imagine it would be worse than the 20-year muddle and the troops and treasure lost. – Wall Street Journal  

Ruth Pollard writes: Adding fuel to this fire is the increasing belief — particularly among those who lean toward jihad and violence but are not quite there yet —  that politics doesn’t work, nor does democracy or the nation state as defined by the West. […]Al Aqeedi says IS actions will actually help the new rulers of Kabul. “If anything,” she says, “it strengthens the Taliban’s positioning as a lesser evil.” Just think about that: The Taliban as the lesser evil. If there’s anything that symbolizes the failure of the U.S. campaign in Afghanistan, this is it. – Bloomberg 

Greg Gross writes: So our objective today remains getting Americans, allied citizens, and Afghan friends out of the country without a firefight. But if the Taliban, al Qaeda, or ISIS-K prevent this, and do worse, all bets are off. […]A controlled strategic withdrawal from our longest war is now an ignominious capitulation with the prospect of a renewed, bloodier war. – Washington Examiner 

Tom Rogan writes: Robinson offers another possibility: covert ground rescues conducted on a case by case basis. While similar operations to bring people to Kabul airport have been carried out by the U.S. and by the British, in particular , a covert pipeline out of Afghanistan could also be employed. The risks would be high and the scale limited, however. Put simply, Biden now has a most difficult choice in front of him. – Washington Examiner 

Kaylee McGhee White writes: The Americans in Afghanistan took Biden at his word. Our president assured them that his withdrawal would not result in chaos, and they believed him. It is not their fault that he lied; it is not their fault that he created the conditions that have left them stranded. No one but Biden is to blame for this tragedy, and if even one American is left behind because of the decisions he made, he should be forced to own it. – Washington Examiner 

Terree Bowers writes: For many, withdrawal from a perpetual war will be viewed as a good result. I understand, but I keep remembering the faces of those brave Afghan women who were leading their country towards a more just and free nation. What about them? – The Hill 

David J. Wasserstein writes: Rational actors in the West surely understand that. When U.S. officials suggest otherwise, they are talking more to their TV audiences at home than to the Taliban. To the Taliban they are talking – a rational act – about getting a few more days to get their people out. That is why CIA Director William Burns went to Kabul last weekend. While it is comforting for the defeated to think that the victors will somehow disappear very quickly, the Taliban is here to stay. – The Hill 

Nadia Schadlow writes: While there are no silver linings of the debacle in Afghanistan, perhaps at least more Americans will once again become aware that we live in a dangerous world, and that messy conflicts do not simply disappear when we refuse to acknowledge them. – The Hill 

Skye Christensen writes: If we are to avoid future Kabulesque failures, we need to free our otherwise capable foreign service officers to do their jobs. This means accepting that people serving abroad will face a reasonable amount of risk — and giving them impetus to do their work out in the real world where it matters. American taxpayers should demand that the Biden administration make American embassies great again, by abolishing the security apparatus that prevents diplomats from being diplomats and spies from spying. – The Hill 

Bhaskar Chakravorti writes: Whatever steps Facebook takes in Afghanistan, it should make sure that its technology does not displace human judgment. Its own left hand must track what its right one is doing, even as Facebook joins hands with the larger international community to not get things wrong yet again in Afghanistan. To the Afghan people now left to their fate under the Taliban, we owe at least this much. – Foreign Policy 

Sajjan M. Gohel writes: Although the Taliban will face criticism for not preventing the attack, to them the bigger prize is the West’s departure. For them, the death of innocent Afghans at the hands of the Islamic State-Khorasan is merely a strategic means to an end. Islamic State-Khorasan and the Taliban may resume their squabbles, but they also have more in common with each other than they have differences. The perennial losers in this remain the Afghan people. – Foreign Policy 

Michael Hirsh writes: Considerable skepticism remains about the Taliban’s intentions, especially since the militants still maintain a relationship with al Qaeda. But in the weeks since the Taliban takeover, it has become clear that the group’s leadership is wary of again becoming an international pariah. […]One potential problem for maintaining U.S. counterterrorism capabilities in Afghanistan is the shift in focus away from fighting terrorists and back toward rivalries with great powers, especially China. – Foreign Policy 

John Podhoretz writes: The status quo held. And then Joe Biden, in between licks of his ice cream cones, heedlessly and vaingloriously smashed it to bits. He wanted to be the bringer of peace; he is instead the bringer of chaos. And we haven’t seen anything yet. – Commentary Magazine 

Noah Rothman writes: Your American passport used to mean something that no one on earth could afford to ignore. The Biden administration chose to sacrifice that hard-won advantage—no one else. Many will share the blame when we leave the Americans to fend for themselves while they’re surrounded by a vengeful fundamentalist militia. But the fault will not lie with those who have been abandoned by their own government. Some will do their best to make that case. Don’t let them get away with it. – Commentary Magazine 

Daniel F. Runde and Shannon McKeown writes: The short-term flow of humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan is necessary for the country’s stability and to mitigate the effects of famine and Covid-19. Any disruptions could seriously threaten the country’s future and erode important humanitarian gains over the last 20 years. Actions speak louder than words and several key steps from the Taliban will likely need to be made, especially on human and women’s rights, freedom of movement, and security conditions, for conversations on U.S. recognition and future long-term foreign aid to take place. – Center for Strategic and International Studies 

Turkey

U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai told Turkey’s trade minister it was critical that countries remove individual digital services taxes in connection with a broader multilateral agreement reached in talks led by the OECD, her office said. – Reuters 

As Turkey braces for a possible influx of refugees fleeing Afghanistan following the Taliban takeover, concern over the potential impact is growing – fuelled by festering resentment over refugees already sheltering in the country. – Reuters 

Turkey has not made a final decision on a Taliban request for support to run the Kabul airport after foreign forces withdraw over security concerns and uncertainty in Afghanistan, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday, adding talks were still underway. – Reuters 

Lebanon

Lebanon’s energy ministry said it had picked Dubai’s ENOC in a tender to swap 84,000 tonnes of Iraqi high sulphur fuel oil with 30,000 tonnes of Grade B fuel oil and 33,000 tonnes of gasoil. – Reuters 

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed deep concern on Thursday about the deteriorating socio-economic situation in Lebanon and called on all “political leaders to urgently form an effective government of national unity,” his spokesman said. – Reuters 

The judge leading the investigation into last summer’s Beirut port blast issued a subpoena for caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab on Thursday after he failed to show up for questioning, Lebanon’s state news agency reported. – Reuters 

The European Union is deeply concerned at the rapid deterioration of the crisis in Lebanon, its ambassador to Beirut said on Thursday, telling Lebanese leaders the time for action had run out and urging them to form a government. – Reuters 

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s vice defense minister on Thursday called for North Korea to resume cooperation under a 2018 military agreement on reducing tensions, which the North has threatened to abandon over U.S.-South Korean military exercises. – Associated Press 

U.N. human rights investigators have asked North Korea to clarify whether it has ordered troops to shoot on sight any trespassers who cross its northern border in violation of the country’s pandemic closure. – Associated Press 

Nearly 400 evacuated Afghans arrived on Thursday in Seoul, where the government said it was amending the law to allow long-term stays for those who worked on South Korean projects in Afghanistan before the Taliban seized power this month. – Reuters 

Asia

Public frustration at the spread of Covid-19’s Delta variant is hurting the political standing of some Asia-Pacific leaders, including those in U.S. allies Australia and Japan. – Wall Street Journal 

Vice President Kamala Harris said the Biden administration would continue to call out China for its aggressive maritime claims in the South China Sea but doesn’t want a conflict with Beijing, as she sought to strike a balance with countries in the region caught between the rival powers. – Wall Street Journal 

A senior Hong Kong official has admitted that the city’s stringent travel quarantine regime had caused “suffering” for international businesses as executives warned that its reputation as a global financial hub was under threat. – Financial Times 

A series of blasts triggered by a fire at a military base in southern Kazakhstan killed five servicemen and wounded 90 people, authorities in the central Asian nation said on Friday. – Reuters 

Taiwan and Japan’s ruling parties discussed how to handle the rising challenge they both face from their neighbour China as well as possible military exchanges, during a virtual meeting that Beijing condemned as an affront to Chinese sovereignty. – Reuters 

A Hong Kong court on Friday approved bail for a student leader who is among four charged with “advocating terrorism” after their union passed a motion mourning the death of a 50-year-old who stabbed a police officer before killing himself. – Reuters 

Australia has stopped evacuation flights from Afghanistan after Islamic State suicide bombers killed scores of civilians and at least 13 U.S. military personnel in attacks outside the airport in Kabul, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Friday. – Reuters 

Taiwan announced a more modest pace in defence spending for next year on Thursday, but will spend $1.44 billion on new fighter jets, as the island bolsters its forces in the face of increased pressure from Beijing. – Reuters 

One of the last remaining independent members of Hong Kong’s legislature is losing his seat after a candidate vetting committee said he failed to uphold the former British colony’s mini-constitution, according to the city’s No. 2 official. – Bloomberg 

An ethnic Kazakh man from China’s northwestern region of Xinjiang has received a certificate confirming his Kazakh citizenship after serving 16 years in Chinese custody. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

Evan A. Laksmana writes: But rather than finding ways to address Indonesia’s strategic dependence and vulnerability, policymakers in Jakarta have been content to stick to their old, passive tactic—and wait for what the great powers might offer. Beijing and Washington are more than happy to oblige, each hoping it can tilt Jakarta. Indonesia, meanwhile, hopes to continue reaping the benefits of playing one great power off the other, with only ASEAN as a mechanism for maintaining regional order. This is hope, not a strategy. – Foreign Policy 

Russia

Russia has yet to determine its position towards the Taliban, and will see how they act toward the Afghan population and Russian diplomats, President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson said on Thursday. – Reuters 

A court in Moscow has fined two activists for picketing the Afghan Embassy to demand that women’s rights be protected in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

The Moscow City Court has refused to consider a request filed by former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, who was convicted in Russia on espionage charges that he denies, to transfer him home to serve the remainder of his sentence there. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

A court in Moscow has fined Facebook, Twitter, and WhatsApp for failing to localize the storage of personal data of its users amid a government campaign to gain more control over the Internet in Russia. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

William Courtney writes: The Kremlin might be tempted to think the U.S. is exhausted by burdens in the greater Middle East and will turn away from it. Despite some downsizing in the region, America is likely to retain substantial force to address threats from Iran or elsewhere. Washington is entering a period of deeper reflection and intensified debate over foreign and military policy. As it goes forward, the Kremlin might consider the U.S. record of overcoming previous misfortunes. – The Hill 

Africa

The ongoing war and humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia’s north could affect the country’s trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office said. – Reuters 

Gunmen killed at least 150 people last week in western Ethiopia in an attack by an armed group against local residents, the state-appointed Ethiopian Human Rights Commission said on Thursday. – Reuters 

Gunmen in Nigeria have freed a number of pupils who were kidnapped from an Islamic school in May, according to their head teacher. – BBC 

United States

In the days before the twin explosions rocked the international airport in Kabul and left U.S. service members dead, former President Donald Trump and his associates sought to differentiate their planned withdrawal from Afghanistan from the one being carried out by President Joe Biden. – Washington Examiner 

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on Thursday called for bringing the chamber back from recess so lawmakers can vote on legislation that would prohibit withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan until all remaining Americans are evacuated.  – The Hill 

Michael Rubin writes: History is awash in valiant rescues. Biden’s team does not deserve to compare themselves to any. At best, they show themselves afflicted by the national security equivalent of Munchausen Syndrome By Proxy, seeking praise from an ailment for which they themselves are responsible. – 19fortyfive 

Michael Rubin writes: It is good to see Congress assert its role. Perhaps had Pelosi and McCarthy recognized that oversight trumps partisan sniping, the United States would not be facing its worst crisis in decades and a hostage situation which could make the 1979 Iran embassy seizure seem by comparison a walk-in the park. – 19fortyfive 

Shoshana Bryen writes: Don’t be satisfied with empty posturing when it comes to Russia. President Biden just banned the importation of Russian ammunition to the U.S., ostensibly because of President Vladimir Putin’s treatment of dissident Alexei Navalny. It is a small, petty, laughable thing to do on Navalny’s behalf after permitting Russia to finish the Nord Stream II pipeline, which will yield billions of dollars of hard currency earnings and the ability to hold Europe hostage to Russian energy sources in the winter. Biden’s move was designed to irritate American gun owners. Don’t think Putin doesn’t know it. – Newsweek 

Rachel Tecott writes: Too often, the United States’ efforts to train and equip foreign militaries have been motivated by bureaucratic logic rather than sound strategy. The fall of Kabul exposed more than the rot within the armies the United States builds. It also exposed the rot within the United States’ approach to building them. – Foreign Affairs 

Heather A. Conley and James Andrew Lewis write: Today, the international system stands at Berra’s fork and is heeding his advice by taking two roads simultaneously. The first road is the well-trodden one: the international community continues to practice multilateral diplomacy and follow the post 1945 international patterns of cooperation—but with fewer productive results. The second is an as yet unchartered path of new patterns of behavior marked by technological competition and coercion, the revitalization and modernization of industrial policies, and a radical rethink of the role of governance and diplomacy. – Center for Stratrgic and International Studies 

Will Mackie writes: Currently, there is a clear absence of any substantive domestic U.S. law that restricts U.S. citizens from serving abroad as foreign fighters. The question now for policymakers is whether to continue with this status quo in which U.S. citizens are free to serve as foreign mercenaries for hire around the globe. […]The risks such unregulated private paramilitary conduct poses to U.S. foreign policy interests greatly outweigh the value of any “personal freedom” to engage in armed combat anywhere for personal profit. – War on the Rocks 

Giselle Donnelly and Iulia Ioja writes: Chinese propagandists are delighted, not least by Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s supplication for help in creating a “soft landing” for Afghanistan under the Taliban. “After the fall of the Kabul regime, the Taiwan authorities must be trembling,” tweeted Hu Xijin, editor of the Global Times (the English-language equivalent of the People’s Daily) “Don’t look…to the U.S. to protect them.” Napoleon got it backwards: The world will shake as America sleeps. – The Hill 

Defense

In a couple years, cyber warriors in the military branches will use a single, new platform to deliver electronic fires over networks for offensive operations. – C4SIRNET 

The U.S. Navy has conducted a second-stage solid rocket motor test for a hypersonic weapon in development, the service announced Aug. 26. – Defense News 

U.S. Space Force leaders said the service has made headway in implementing its vision to become the world’s first fully digital service, when asked at the 36th annual Space Symposium. – Defense News 

Army leaders in charge of aviation modernization say they have carved out a realistic, but ambitious schedule to move through a competitive development effort and field a Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft by 2030. – Defense News 

China’s recent full-speed-ahead breakout in nuclear forces, space and cyber efforts, and hypersonic systems adds new urgency to America’s need to ensure its deterrence systems are holding, U.S. Strategic Command’s top officer said Thursday. – USNI News 

The United States has actively pursued the development of hypersonic weapons—maneuvering weapons that fly at speeds of at least Mach 5—as a part of its conventional prompt global strike program since the early 2000s. […]Critics, on the other hand, contend that hypersonic weapons lack defined mission requirements, contribute little to U.S. military capability, and are unnecessary for deterrence. – USNI News 

The ambitious startup Firefly Aerospace expects to launch its first rocket, Alpha, from Vandenberg Space Force Base one week from today, setting up what could be a spirited rivalry with California-based Rocket Labs. – Breaking Defense 

Jessica West writes: As someone who advocates for the development of new norms for military activities in space, I recognize both the value of effective norms — and the difficulty in creating them. Strong norms are the glue of collective governance. But without the right ingredients, that glue won’t adhere to all surfaces or will soon dry out. Needed are shared principles and values, combined with constant efforts to build community and trust through dialogue. – Breaking Defense 

Margaux Hoar, Jeremy Sepinsky, and Peter M. Swartz write: The next step in advancing a combatant command configuration that works for the peacetime competition of today and modern conflict of tomorrow would be for national security leaders to turn the unthinkable into new, feasible organizing principles. They should then test them and have the courage and fortitude to design a fit-for-purpose Unified Command Plan. – War on the Rocks 

Jonathan Freeman writes: New Air Force intelligence analysts are currently assigned missions they are wholly ill-equipped to solve. Tailoring the service’s learning policy and incorporating the ideas and theories presented here could provide the backbone and continuity for intelligence analysts to support new approaches to defense strategies and ensure future Air Force victories. – War on the Rocks