Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

There’s no warning when incoming fire slams into the grounds of Europe’s largest nuclear plant, sending workers scrambling for cover. – Washington Post

Over the past six months, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has become an inspiring wartime leader and champion of his country. During an hour-long, wide-ranging interview with The Washington Post at the presidential office, where hallways are kept dark and are lined with sandbags to protect against Russian attack, Zelensky discussed U.S. warnings about Russia preparing to launch a full-scale invasion — and if he believed them. – Washington Post

The United States had discovered Putin sharply increasing funding for military operations while leaving his pandemic response underfunded. “We assess that they plan to conduct a significant strategic attack on Ukraine from multiple directions simultaneously,” Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, told Biden. “Their version of ‘shock and awe.’ ” – Washington Post

On a sunny October morning, the nation’s top intelligence, military and diplomatic leaders filed into the Oval Office for an urgent meeting with President Biden. They arrived bearing a highly classified intelligence analysis, compiled from newly obtained satellite images, intercepted communications and human sources, that amounted to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war plans for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. – Washington Post 

In their summer campaign to drive Russian troops from the southern region of Kherson, Ukraine’s forces have decimated Russian command centers and ammunition depots, severed supply lines with precision strikes on key bridges, and sown terror among collaborationist officials with a spate of car bombings, shootings and, Ukrainian officials say, at least one poisoning. – New York Times

It was the beginning of six weeks of “hell,” said Vasiliy, 37, who like most people interviewed for this article declined to give his surname for fear of reprisals. Shunted from one place of detention to another, he was beaten and repeatedly subjected to electrical shocks under interrogation, with little understanding of where he was or why he was being held. – New York Times

The Ukrainian military said Monday that it had repelled more than a dozen Russian attacks in the country’s east and north, including attempts to advance on key cities in the eastern industrial heartland known as the Donbas. – Associated Press

With much fanfare, ship after ship loaded with grain has sailed from Ukraine after being stuck in the country’s Black Sea ports for nearly six months. More quietly, a parallel wartime deal met Moscow’s demands to clear the way for its wheat to get to the world, too, boosting an industry vital to Russia’s economy that had been ensnared in wider sanctions. – Associated Press

Lawyers for American basketball star Brittney Griner have filed an appeal of her nine-year Russian prison sentence for drug possession, Russian news agencies reported Monday, amid talks between the U.S. and Russia that could lead to a high-profile prisoner swap. – Associated Press

An independent military intelligence group says Russia is amassing anti-aircraft missile systems in Belarus in preparation for what it says is a large-scale attack against Ukraine. – Newsweek

A video that has gone viral on social media appears to show Russia’s defenses failing to block a HIMARS attack on a strategic bridge in Ukraine’s occupied Kherson region. – Newsweek

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday that Russia’s actions could “cause a catastrophe” should Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine not be defended properly. – The Hill

The sweeping Western sanction imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine have hit Russia’s access to technology intensive products again raising the call for Russia to achieve technological sovereignty. Vladimir Putin and Denis Manturov the Deputy Prime Minister and head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade have promised an intensive program to achieve that purpose relying on capital-rich companies to make the necessary investments. Russia can call upon a legacy of scientific prowess to generate innovation. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Afghanistan

The Biden administration has decided it won’t release any of the roughly $7 billion in foreign assets held by Afghanistan’s central bank on U.S. soil and has suspended talks with the Taliban over the funds after the killing of al Qaeda’s leader in Kabul, according to U.S. officials. – Wall Street Journal

Soon after the U.S. military mistakenly killed 10 civilians, including seven children, last August in the final U.S. drone strike before American troops withdrew from Afghanistan, the Biden administration pledged to help surviving members of the family relocate to the United States for their safety. – New York Times

A year after the Taliban swept across Afghanistan, sparking a chaotic withdrawal of US and allied forces, the country’s dire economic and human rights outlook has only worsened. – Bloomberg

In a new memo, the White House is defending President Joe Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal last year, claiming it strengthened national security by freeing up military and intelligence resources that the United States can deploy in other areas. – Washington Examiner

Russia, China and other non-Western powers are making diplomatic overtures to Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government as the U.S. continues to stonewall the hardline Islamist group a year after it forcefully seized control of the country. – Newsweek

David Ignatius writes:  The war in Afghanistan from the beginning was a story of overly optimistic assumptions about our Afghan partners’ ability to contain the Taliban, and that continued to the end. Nobody predicted that a panicked President Ashraf Ghani would flee the country and that the Afghan army would suddenly collapse — and perhaps nobody could have. But the Biden administration could have hedged better against the possibility of such “black swan” disasters — and, indeed, some officials tried, unsuccessfully, to do just that. – Washington Post

Obaidullah Baheer writes: Of course, there’s fear. I often wonder whether I am pushing too much and whether the Taliban’s patience will finally run out. I just hope that if Taliban fighters do come for me, many more Afghans — inspired by my nonviolent actions and eagerness to change society through dialogue and cooperation — pick up where I left off. – Washington Post

Fereshta Abassi writes: But would it be too much for the United Nations Security Council to impose travel bans on senior Taliban officials — and for the UN Human Rights Council to mandate an international body to collect evidence of the grave human rights abuses being committed in Afghanistan today so that there could be justice one day? […]We have lost our beautiful Afghanistan for now, but it is still my home. Many of my close friends and extended family members are still in Kabul Jan, and more importantly, so is my heart. And it is broken. – The Hill

Rep. Steve Scalise and Jake Ellzey write: House Republicans are committed to honoring those who served, and those who lost their lives in Afghanistan. We will not let their sacrifice be in vain. We will leave no stone unturned in our oversight of this embarrassing disaster of American foreign policy, and in our efforts to ensure Afghanistan never again becomes a haven for terrorists. – FOX News

Jen Wilson writes: One year later, I wish our nation had done more to assist and save our brothers and sisters that gave 20 years to our democracy project. But I stand here in awe of what the veterans community has built and continues to fight for every single day for their friends. The men and women who stood shoulder to shoulder with them during years of deployments to ensure they came home. – FOX News

Saad Mohseni writes: Many continue to view the Taliban leadership as intransigent, recalcitrant, and unyielding. A year in office has helped some Taliban leaders recognize the need for compromise, even though they have mostly not acted on that impulse. But the cement is not yet dry. […]But Washington ignores Afghanistan at its own peril: by failing to support the Afghan people or engage with the Taliban, the West may be consigning the country to a future as a humanitarian catastrophe and terrorist haven. – Foreign Affairs

Husain Haqqani writes: The need to focus on the U.S.-China peer rivalry was touted as one of the reasons for American withdrawal from Afghanistan. But from China’s perspective, the U.S. now no longer has a military presence in South and Central Asia. Working with Russia and Iran, China can now call the shots over much of the continental Asian landmass. Responding to public frustration instead of building public opinion, two American presidents made decisions relating to Afghanistan that have wider strategic implications than they probably recognized. – Washington Examiner

Marvin G. Weinbaum writes: Experiences have shown that normal canons of international diplomacy do not apply very well to a movement whose goals and ethics are guided by a rigid set of core religious beliefs. Sanctions and other pressures cannot succeed with a Taliban that feels its faith is being tested. For the foreseeable future, the United States would seem to have no choice but to accept the Taliban for what it is. With American security and strategic interests and the well-being of the Afghan people at stake, we may have little choice but to carve out a narrow, if uncomfortable, relationship. – The National Interest

Korean Peninsula

The United States and South Korea will begin their biggest combined military training in years next week in the face of an increasingly aggressive North Korea, which has been ramping up weapons tests and threats of nuclear conflict against Seoul and Washington, the South’s military said Tuesday.  – Associated Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to expand relations with North Korea, reaching out to his neighbor as the Kremlin scours the globe for weapons for its war in Ukraine. – Bloomberg

Microsoft Corp co-founder and philanthropist Bill Gates called on Tuesday for South Korea to play a bigger role in global health and to increase aid, working with his foundation to strengthen the fight against diseases. – Reuters

South Asia

A senior U.N. official is visiting Myanmar this week, the United Nations said, on a rare visit that comes amid domestic political turmoil and fraying ties between Myanmar and its Southeast Asian neighbours. – Reuters

A Chinese scientific research ship whose port call was earlier deferred due to apparent security concerns raised by India arrived Tuesday at a southern port in Sri Lanka. – Associated Press

Indrajit Samarajiva writes: The Western media accuses China of luring us into a debt trap. Tucker Carlson says environmental, social and corporate governance programs killed us. […]But from where I’m standing, ultimate blame lies with the Western-dominated neoliberal system that keeps developing countries in a form of debt-fueled colonization. The system is in crisis, its shaky foundations exposed by the tumbling dominoes of the Ukraine war, resulting in food and fuel scarcity, the pandemic and looming insolvency and hunger rippling across the world. – New York Times

Nisid Hajari writes: Modi likes to call India the “mother of democracy.” But the central test of a democracy is how it treats its most vulnerable citizens — whether their rights are protected and their views heard. Nehru and India’s other founding fathers saw it as their most basic duty to prove Jinnah wrong, forging a pluralistic India that would thrive because of its diversity not despite it. Three quarters of a century later, Indians should ask themselves whether they, not their former brethren across the border, are the ones now making a mistake. – Bloomberg

Europe

The UK is set to launch formal dispute proceedings against the European Union, accusing the bloc of breaking the post-Brexit trade deal by blocking its access to three international science programs. – Bloomberg

Latvia, a former member of the Soviet Union that shares a border with Russia, could move to restrict the Russian language in workplaces in the near future in a potential blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to the country’s deputy prime minister. – Newsweek

On July 27, Poland signed one of its largest arms deals ever for more artillery, tanks, and aircraft to modernize its military amid heightened tensions in Europe. – Business Insider

Editorial: Parties in opposition may be entitled to use a party-wide vote to choose a leader, who will then face the broader electorate. For a party in government, whose programme has been endorsed in a general election, the job of replacing a leader midterm should be returned to MPs. […]It is logical and consistent that they decide who should lead them — allowing the government quickly to get back to managing the crises of the day. – Financial Times

Christopher Tremoglie writes: Petkov helped position his country at the forefront of toppling Putin’s energy behemoth. By being the first country to stand up to Putin and pivot away from dependency on Russian energy, Bulgaria has shown itself to be a trailblazer in both European energy independence and freedom. – Washington Examiner

United States

John R. Bolton writes: Biden’s bizarre policy of “nuclear deal über alles” reflects an instinct for the capillary when it comes to Washington-Tehran relations. Iran’s nuclear program is only a symptom of the real problem: the regime itself. That is what the United States must focus on ending. – Washington Post

Andrew Latham writes: The bottom line? If you are looking for a critique of the GPC narrative, you need look no further. “America’s Great-Power Opportunity” is without question invaluable as an antidote to the more simplistic notions of great-power politics currently in circulation. But if you are looking for an analysis that might provide a conceptual foundation for a next-generation U.S. grand strategy that is more restrained – more committed to prudent balancing and less interested in yet another exercise in international order building – then this work is bound to leave you disappointed. Count me in the latter camp. – The Hill

Tom Corben and Peter K. Lee write: Roosevelt’s call to arms came a year before the United States formally entered World War II. Yet he presciently recognized that the power of American industry would tilt the scales of the war. That expectation has been revived in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Biden administration’s commitment to provide advanced weapons systems to Kiev for “as long as it takes.” But this endeavor, like many others, is one that the United States can no longer fulfill alone. The K-arsenal can help. – War on the Rocks

Defense

Despite plans to decommission Littoral Combat Ship USS Sioux City (LCS-11) next fiscal year, the Navy is preparing funds to repair a latent issue with the ship’s propulsion system, USNI News has learned. – USNI News

The Navy wants to shed 39 ships in Fiscal Year 2023, with the first ship set to depart on Halloween. – USNI News

The Air Force announced Monday that its F-35A Lightning IIs are flying again, after a recall related to the aircraft’s ejection seats grounded the fighter jets late last month. – Military.com

Nicholas Dockery and Margaret Smith write: Using the blueprint of the multi-functional Jedburghs and the lessons learned from the embedded JTACs – models known to work effectively – a joint Cyber-SOF effort could better thwart attacks from peer adversaries like China, and provide another layer of proactive defense to the strategy of integrated deterrence. – C4ISRNET