Fdd's overnight brief

Russia

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the United Nations Security Council that Russia should be removed from the council or it should otherwise be dissolved, after warning that newly uncovered atrocities following the withdrawal of Russian forces near Kyiv could be worse than those in the city of Bucha. – Wall Street Journal  

The U.S. and the EU are set to unveil new sanctions on Russia this week, after allegations from Ukraine of potential war crimes against civilians by Russian forces galvanized a push for tougher measures against the Kremlin. – Wall Street Journal

The European Union has proposed sanctioning two daughters of President Vladimir Putin, according to diplomats familiar with the plan, a move that would add the Russian leader’s closest family members to a growing list of individuals sanctioned in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal  

Ukraine’s Western backers have vowed to respect Kyiv’s decisions in any settlement to end the war with Russia, but with larger issues of global security at stake, there are limits to how many compromises some in NATO will support to win the peace. – Washington Post  

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine pushed world leaders to impose more “powerful sanctions” on Russian banks and energy companies as he criticized their response to the invasion of his country. Hours earlier, he showed the U.N. Security Council a graphic video of what he called war crimes committed by Russian forces against civilians in the city of Bucha. – New York Times  

With evidence mounting of atrocities in the Kyiv suburbs, and Russian forces preparing for a new offensive farther east, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine delivered a scathing speech to the United Nations on Tuesday, accusing Russia of a litany of horrors and questioning whether a world body that takes no action to stop a war serves any purpose. – New York Times  

A Dominica-flagged cargo ship sank on Tuesday in the besieged southern Ukrainian port city of Mariupol after being targeted by Russian missile strikes, the vessel’s flag registry said. – Reuters  

Russia is turning to microchip manufactures in China to circumvent western sanctions which have boosted demand for bank cards linked to the Mir payment system, an executive with the domestic payment system said. – Reuters  

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin defended America’s response to the war in Ukraine on Tuesday during a heated exchange with a Republican lawmaker who accused the Pentagon of over-estimating Russia’s military capability. – Reuters  

Western governments were preparing Wednesday to impose tougher sanctions against Russia, as Ukraine documents and investigates widespread killings of civilians and other alleged war crimes. – Associated Press  

As gruesome videos and photos of bodies emerge from the Kyiv suburb of Bucha, Kremlin-backed media are denouncing them as an elaborate hoax — a narrative that journalists in Ukraine have shown to be false. – Associated Press

The Russian column of tanks and armored personnel carriers sped along a residential street in Bucha, a tree-lined suburb of the capital Kyiv. – CNN  

The U.S. is sending up to $100 million in additional military aid to Ukraine as Russia’s invasion of the country continues. – The Hill  

A trial regarding war crimes allegedly committed by Russia during its invasion of Ukraine could restrict Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ability to leave the country, according to experts. – Newsweek  

David Knight Legg writes: Despotic regimes control most of the world’s energy via state companies. The democratic West relies on private companies operating in free markets, which have driven most of the innovation in cleaner fuels, carbon capture, nuclear and hydrogen. As NATO reorients itself, member states should pursue trade deals connecting the vast supply and technological innovations of the U.S. and Canada to Europe. The best way to beat this particular thief is to steal back his market. – Wall Street Journal  

Holman W. Jenkins Jr. writes: We might also draw a tighter bead on why deterrence failed. It failed because of Germany’s inability to do without Russian gas. With the help of former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and German industry, Mr. Putin knew what he was doing. If one linchpin of his Ukraine plan was to capture Kyiv fast, the other was confidence that Germany would protest impotently and accept a fait accompli. By failing to make quick work of Ukraine, he defeated not only his own strategy but Angela Merkel’s . – Wall Street Journal  

David Ignatius writes: A systematic rebuttal began Monday with a post from Eliot Higgins, founder of the British investigative website Bellingcat. He examined Russian claims that images from Bucha showed “signs of video fakes and other forgeries.” Higgins showed that a supposed “moving hand” of a corpse filmed from a car was probably a water droplet moving across the windshield. Similarly, he clarified why Russian claims about a moving corpse supposedly reflected in a car mirror are explained by the mirror’s distortion. – Washington Post  

Paula Dobriansky and Richard Levine write: Ukraine can serve as an irreplaceable bridge to Russia in the period after Russian President Vladimir Putin. It cannot do so if it is rendered a wasteland, for while Russia’s soldiers cannot successfully occupy Ukraine, Russia can continue to destroy it from the air. This indiscriminate bombing is a war crime that cannot go unanswered: Steps must be taken to guarantee these cruel acts are not perpetuated. Whatever path Ukraine selects, NATO must ensure that there is never again a land war in Europe. – Washington Times  

Mark F. Cancian writes: One purpose of any foreign volunteer operation is political, showing worldwide support for the cause and appearing to distribute the burdens. Ultimately, however, only a militarily effective force brings both battlefield advantage and international credibility. A just cause and individual enthusiasm is not enough. Producing military effectiveness requires a highly organized effort of training, supply, and personnel administration. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Janan Ganesh writes: If there is such a thing as the court of world opinion, it now has to weigh the US against not an abstract ideal but the reality of a Moscow-Beijing partnership of unequals. More than the billions of cubic metres in new gas orders, or even the probable reprieve for Taiwan, it is this change in the intellectual atmosphere that leaves America enhanced. It need only be better than the alternative to be very attractive indeed. – Financial Times  

Graham Allison writes: In the complicated multilevel negotiations and diplomacy that will be required to create a similar off-ramp for Putin in Ukraine, the United States and its allies will need even more imagination than Kennedy and his advisors did in 1962. But as Biden and his team rise to this challenge, they can find inspiration in JFK’s finest hour. – Foreign Affairs  

Lawrence Kudlow writes: Mr. Biden is closer to that than he was a month ago, but Garry Kasparov is right: He’s not there yet. It’s time to get there. Because if we do, we will rid the world of Vladimir Putin the dictator, the war criminal, and the crook. – New York Sun  

Edward Fishman and Chris Miller write: These actions would isolate Russia from the global economy and dry up its main source of hard currency—oil sales. Such a strategy might not end Russia’s war against Ukraine. But it would ensure that Putin’s horrific violence carries enduring costs, and it would curb Russia’s ability to fund its military machine in the future. – Foreign Affairs  

Afghanistan

The Taliban have in recent weeks introduced draconian social restrictions, which in particular curb the freedoms of women, even as the group seeks international recognition after toppling the Western-backed republic in August. – Wall Street Journal  

Then, munching on a date, the bushy-bearded former Afghan soldier broke his first Ramadan fast in the United States – far from the Taliban threat, but also the three dozen relatives he would be marking the start of the Muslim holy month with if he was still home in Khost, Afghanistan. – Associated Press 

U.S. military forces have not conducted any counterterrorism strikes in Afghanistan since withdrawing all troops from the country last summer, but military officials insisted on Tuesday that they have the capability to monitor and neutralize threats there despite logistical challenges. – Defense News  

Gulf States

Iraq pumped 4.15 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in March, 222,000 bpd short of its production quota under an agreement with other OPEC+ producers, data from state-owned marketer SOMO seen by Reuters showed on Tuesday. – Reuters 

Kuwait’s Prime Minister Sheikh Sabah Al-Khaled Al-Sabah has resigned to avert a new push by opposition lawmakers to remove him from office, deepening a long-running political standoff that’s held back the economy. – Bloomberg  

Qatar has failed to deliver on that promise, so FIFA had to move the tournament to December, when temperatures are cool enough that athletes can play without dying. December, however, just happens to be right in the middle of the season for all of Europe’s best professional leagues. Imagine Major League Baseball stopping its season for the month of June so all the players could participate in the World Baseball Classic. – Washington Examiner  

David Schenker writes: For years, the Kurds have been a reliable partner for Washington and the U.S. has been a consistent supporter of the KRG, paying $240 million per year in salaries to the federal region’s Peshmerga forces and pressing the region’s interests with Baghdad. The KRG correctly complains that its close relationship with Washington makes it a target of Iran, but the ties clearly have helped to make the region Iraq’s most prosperous. It’s now time for the Kurds to do their part to ensure that Iraq succeeds. It would be a shame if they helped to perpetuate Iran’s domination of Iraq. – The Hill 

Mohammed Baharoon writes: These three keys can provide a better understanding of the UAE’s position on conflicts ranging from Yemen to Ukraine, as well as various opportunities from China to South America. […]The UAE and others that have fully endorsed and invested in a globalized economy are now having a difficult time coming to terms with how quickly the unipolar world order that heralded globalization is falling apart. – Middle East Institute

Korean Peninsula

North Korea sees its nuclear program as essential to regime survival, serving to deter a U.S.-led invasion. Decades of denuclearization talks, economic sanctions and diplomacy have done little to slow Pyongyang’s advance to becoming a self-declared nuclear state. – Wall Street Journal  

South Korea’s cabinet approved nearly $30 million on Wednesday to help president-elect Yoon Suk-yeol move the presidential office and residence from the traditional Blue House, clearing the way for a plan initially criticised by the current administration as rushed and a threat to national security. – Reuters  

Advisers to South Korea’s president-elect sought redeployment of U.S. strategic assets, such as nuclear bombers and submarines, to the Korean peninsula during talks held on a visit to Washington, one of the advisers said on Wednesday. – Reuters  

South Asia

India on Tuesday condemned the killings of civilians in Ukraine’s Bucha and called for an independent investigation, having earlier declined to explicitly criticise the invasion of Ukraine by its long-time partner Russia. – Reuters  

In 2020, Mahinda Rajapaksa won elections to become Sri Lanka’s prime minister, serving under his brother and president Gotabaya. In 2021, another sibling, Basil, was named finance minister, tightening the family’s hold on power. – Reuters

Lawyers for Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan began their defence in the Supreme Court on Wednesday of his bid to block an opposition attempt to oust him, a move his critics say was unconstitutional and has ushered in political turmoil. – Reuters  

Sri Lanka’s president will not resign and instead will face the country’s political and economic crisis, a key government minister said Wednesday despite the continuing huge protests that are demanding his resignation. – Associated Press  

Pakistan is in political turmoil as the South Asian country awaits a key court ruling that will decide whether embattled Prime Minister Imran Khan’s plan for an early election can go ahead. – CNN

Sri Lanka’s rupee has plunged to a record low to become the world’s worst-performing currency, as President Gotabaya Rajapaksa struggles to contain a worsening economic and political crisis. – Financial Times  

Yasser Kureshi and Asfanyar Mir write: Some in Pakistan are wondering whether the military had a last-minute change of heart and is supporting Khan’s actions from behind the scenes. But leaks to the news media suggest that the military was also surprised — and may be unwilling to get behind Khan’s foreign conspiracy narrative. In either scenario, the military is likely to be on standby for a more direct intervention in Pakistan’s governance, in case the crisis doesn’t abate easily. – Washington Post  

Europe

The United States, Britain, and Australia on Tuesday announced expanded cooperation on the development of hypersonics and other military technologies in an affirmation of a trilateral security pact whose unstated aim is to provide a bulwark against China’s military ambitions in the IndoPacific. – Washington Post 

Britain urged G7 and NATO nations on Tuesday to ban Russian ships from their ports, agree a timetable to phase out oil and gas imports from Russia, and further tighten sanctions on banks and key industries. – Reuters  

Ukraine has acquired “a couple of dozen” main battle tanks from the Czech Republic, according to a senior Ukrainian official, as Central European members of NATO race to empower the Ukrainian military to withstand an expected Russian onslaught in eastern Ukraine. – Washington Examiner  

Germany has received approval from Israel and the United States to purchase the Arrow-3 missile defense system. – Jerusalem Post 

Editorial: Berlin and many business chiefs warn that a sudden import ban would ruin the economy. Photos of Russian atrocities in Bucha, Ukraine, and elsewhere have reignited a public debate, however, and German voters may decide they’re willing to pay the economic price to punish Mr. Putin for his war crimes. Property rights are the cornerstone of the West’s economic success. But Mr. Putin has shown he views Russia’s state-linked energy firms as economic weapons. Berlin has taken another modest step toward energy sanity by recognizing this reality. – Wall Street Journal  

Andreas Kluth writes: They probably also had in mind Germany’s head of state. As is his wont, Steinmeier was until recently trying to gloss over his own responsibility with grand gestures of pacific high-mindedness. He invited Melnyk to a concert in which both Ukrainian and Russian musicians were to perform in demonstrative harmony. Melnyk RSVP’ed no, then called out Steinmeier’s hypocrisy. – Bloomberg  

Valentina Pop, Sam Flemming, and James Politi write: The weaponisation of finance has profound implications for the future of international politics and economics. Many of the basic assumptions about the post-cold war era are being turned on their head. Globalisation was once sold as a barrier to conflict, a web of dependencies that would bring former foes ever closer together. Instead, it has become a new battleground. – Financial Times 

Latin America

President Pedro Castillo lifted an unprecedented emergency decree that had suspended civil liberties in the Peruvian capital, Lima, on Tuesday, as his increasingly isolated government struggled to quell a series of violent protests over rising fuel, fertilizer and food costs that swept the country in recent days. – New York Times 

Brazil’s Supreme Court on Tuesday rejected an extradition request by Turkey for an opponent of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and member of the Hizmet organization of cleric Fethullah Gulen. – Reuters 

Cuba is struggling to cover a fuel deficit as imports from Venezuela and other countries remain below historical levels and global prices boosted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine make purchases almost unaffordable, according to analysts and data. – Reuters  

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador expressed concern about food inflation and asked U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack to work with Mexico to curb the impact of rising prices, Mexican Agriculture Minister Victor Villalobos said on Tuesday. – Reuters 

Cybersecurity

The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Tuesday on a prominent Russia-based darknet market site and a cryptocurrency exchange that it said operates primarily out of Moscow and St. Petersburg. – Reuters 

Canada on Tuesday laid out details of a proposed legislation that would compel platforms like Facebook and Google to negotiate commercial deals and pay news publishers for their content, in a move similar to Australia’s ground-breaking law passed last year. – Reuters  

The CEO of Russian internet search giant Yandex, who has fumed over the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, reportedly fled to Israel. – Washington Examiner  

Instagram failed to act on the vast majority of abusive messages sent to three women in public facing positions, according to a report released Wednesday. – The Hill 

German federal police said Tuesday they had shut down the dark web Hydra market, which trafficked in illegal narcotics and helped launder money for criminals worldwide. – Cyber Scoop  

Plans to review and potentially scale back a Trump-era rule providing broad authorities to the Department of Defense to launch offensive cyber operations without White House permission sparked concern from legislators at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing Tuesday. – Cyber Scoop  

Luke Hogg writes: Instead of punishing a few large firms, lawmakers would better serve American innovation in the long run by pursuing sensible enforcement of existing antitrust law. Our current legal framework has managed many cycles of “Big Tech” firms, from Ma-Bell to IBM to Microsoft. Rather than replacing it, Congress should focus on incremental reforms to make the system work. – The National Interest 

Daniella Jablanski writes: The next wave of cyber scholars and pundits will hopefully move away from the recent focus on cyber hygiene […]to focus on the subjective nature of cybersecurity mechanism deployed to compensate for gaps and vectors in the massive cyber threat landscape. The only way to address cyber policy is with an overall effort to reduce the success or benefit of any cyberattack […]It is and should be demonstrably a shared responsibility across partner and vendor ecosystems. […]We should all take that responsibility very seriously. – The National Interest  

Nadiya Kostyuk and Eric Gartzke write: We believe Russia is likely to continue conducting information campaigns to influence Ukrainians, its domestic public and international audiences. Russia is also likely to seek to further penetrate Ukrainian networks to access information that potentially assists its military operations. But because cyber operations have not been thoroughly integrated into its military campaigns so far, cyber operations are likely to continue playing a secondary role in the conflict. – Military.com