Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

The Iranian parliament has overwhelmingly approved declaring the entire U.S. military “terrorist.” The Tuesday vote was an escalation from last week, when Iranian lawmakers voted to declare all U.S. troops in the Middle East terrorists. – Washington Examiner

Iranians, already hard hit by punishing US economic sanctions, are bracing for more pain after Washington abolished waivers for some countries which had allowed them to buy oil from Iran. – Agence France–Presse

China signaled an intention to defy U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil industry on Tuesday, denouncing the loss of a waiver renewal as an unacceptable threat against “normal energy cooperation” with Tehran. – Washington Examiner

The United States has made a bad mistake by politicizing oil and using it as a weapon, Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said in a parliamentary session on Tuesday, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported. – Reuters

The French government and the European Union both said they will abide by the terms of the Iran nuclear accord with world powers even after the latest U.S. move. France and its European partners intend to continue efforts to ensure that Iran derives economic benefits as long as Tehran complies with its nuclear obligations, the Foreign Ministry in Paris said. – Bloomberg

The most important issue for predicting whether the US’s upped-economic pressure campaign on Iran will work is probably knowing whether the US and China are about to strike a major deal ending their trade war.If they cut a deal in the coming weeks, the US’ removal of waivers for sanctions against countries who buy Iranian oil could really bring the Islamic Republic’s oil experts to close to zero and force Tehran to cut a new deal. – Jerusalem Post

Eli Lake writes: For now, however, Iran’s leaders appear to be waiting out the Trump administration with the hope that the next president will be a Democrat. After all, three leading candidates have pledged to re-enter the nuclear bargain if elected. Iran might therefore decide just to endure the economic pain inflicted by escalating sanctions on oil and other industries for another 21 months. This is why it’s unlikely there will be negotiations before 2021. Ironically, the best chance for advocates of a new bargain with Iran to get what they want is if Trump wins re-election. – Bloomberg

Israel

Just three weeks before Israel’s closely fought election, President Trump gave incumbent Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a political boost by recognizing the Golan Heights as Israeli territory. Now Netanyahu, who ended up winning, says he wants to repay him: by naming a new settlement there after him. – Washington Post

America’s ambassador to Israel says slow but steady progress is being made toward putting down a permanent U.S. diplomatic footprint in this city in the approach to the first anniversary of President Trump’s historic but divisive move of the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv. – Washington Times

The Palestinians’ outspoken resistance to U.S. mediation in the Middle East peace process is justified because President Trump broke a promise two years ago to avoid any moves before announcing his blueprint that unfairly favored Israel, according to longtime chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat. – Washington Times

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has denied reports that the Lebanese Shi’ite terrorist organization is planning for war with Israel this summer, saying that the IDF would not start a military conflict with the group because the Israeli home-front is not prepared. – Jerusalem Post

An Israeli cabinet minister condemned U.S. Democratic Party presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders on Tuesday for describing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government as racist over its treatment of Palestinians. – Reuters

President Donald Trump’s long-delayed proposal to break a deadlock in finding a resolution to the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians is to be unveiled after the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan ends in June, White House senior adviser Jared Kushner said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The IDF early Wednesday morning, together with the Border Police and the Civil Administration, demolished the home of the terrorist who carried out a shooting attack near Ariel, killing a solider and a father of 12, according to the IDF Spokesperson. – Jerusalem Post

In a clear indication that the Trump administration’s peace plan will depart from the two-state solution as a framework for a permanent Israeli-Palestinian accord, senior White House adviser Jared Kushner said on Tuesday peace efforts by previous administrations had “failed” and that the new proposal would be different. – Times of Israel

The Arab League has pledged $100 million per month to the Palestinian Authority to make up for funds withheld by Israel because of payments made to the families of Palestinian attackers and prisoners. – Associated Press

Michael Rubin writes: China’s reticence to treat Israel as normal is not a problem. Israel’s willingness to pretend that its bilateral ties do not impact broader Western security, however, is a problem. […]Simply put, if the United States was ever to fight a major war, it would likely be with China. That Israeli officials did not recognize that every Pentagon official and most members of Congress would see the sale as benefiting an army poised to kill Americans displayed tremendous self-deception. – The National Interest

Middle East & North Africa

Egyptians overwhelmingly voted to extend President Abdel Fatah al-Sissi’s rule and expand his powers, deepening his hold over the Arab world’s most populous nation, according to results of a snap referendum announced Tuesday. – Washington Post

For an administration not exactly famed for strategic patience and deliberative policymaking, President Trump’s push for an impending Middle East “deal of the century” could be a notable outlier. Trump administration officials have spent the past two years quietly pursuing back-channel communications with wealthy Gulf Arab powers and Palestinian business leaders in preparation for the much-anticipated rollout of a major peace plan aimed at resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict once and for all. – Washington Times

At least 264 people have been killed and over 1,200 wounded in weeks of fighting on the outskirts of Libya’s capital, the World Health Organization said Tuesday, as African leaders called for an immediate ceasefire. – Agence France–Presse

Thousands of Algerian students marched Tuesday through the capital calling for the overthrow of the “system” and trials for members of ousted president Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s inner circle. – Agence France-Presse

Lebanon is prepared to demarcate its maritime border with Israel under the supervision of the United Nations and with the same mechanism used for the Blue Line. – Jerusalem Post

China

Orbiting 22,000 miles above Earth, a fleet of American-built satellites is serving the Chinese government in ways that challenge the U.S. Nine of these satellites have been part of efforts to connect Chinese soldiers on contested outposts in the South China Sea, strengthen police forces against social unrest and make sure state messaging penetrates far and wide, according to corporate records, stock filings and interviews with executives. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. authorities have charged an American engineer and a Chinese businessman with economic espionage and conspiring to steal sophisticated turbine designs to benefit the government of China and their personal business interests. – Washington Post

These images stirred speculation about Mr. Xi’s health among politically minded Chinese, foreign diplomats and China watchers, who quietly wondered if the Chinese leader, who turns 66 in June, had an ailment that caused him physical discomfort. Guessing games have played out on overseas Chinese news outlets and social media, where users offered theories from muscle sprains to gout. – Wall Street Journal

Freedom of navigation should not be used to infringe upon the rights of other countries, China’s navy chief Shen Jinlong said on Wednesday, taking a dig at the United States and its allies who have sailed close to disputed South China Sea islets. – Reuters

United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will go to Beijing for trade talks beginning April 30, the White House announced Tuesday. – The Hill

China showed off a new naval weapon, the first of a new generation of hard-hitting destroyers, at a celebration of the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army Navy on Tuesday. – Business Insider

Tom Rogan writes: Thanks to his investments, China now retains ships and submarines that can operate far away from Chinese waters. […]All of this serves a clear strategic objective: establishing the military architecture to serve Xi’s mercantile empire. That is to say, establishing the architecture to displace and defeat U.S. efforts to defend our order against China’s aggression.We must get more serious about China’s growing threat. The U.S. Navy continues to overemphasize aircraft carriers as the linchpin of its naval-air battle doctrine. And the U.S. military command responsible for China-related operations continues to lack the tools it needs to win. President Trump should urgently remedy these issues. If not, he may preside over China’s global hegemony. – Washington Examiner

Eli Lake writes: And yet Guterres is acting as if it’s business as usual with China. This week he will travel to Beijing to attend a forum to promote China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative, an ambitious plan where China provides often-predatory loans to other countries to build ports, railways and other transportation infrastructure. [..]Such equivocation from the UN Secretary General is provocative. His hosts in Beijing must be delighted, as they proceed with their ethnic and religious cleansing in the western provinces, that he has accepted their invitation to celebrate their Belt and Road initiative. – Bloomberg

Asia

Myanmar’s highest court ruled against two Reuters reporters on Tuesday, upholding their conviction for violating a state secrets law after they uncovered a military massacre. – New York Times

A Hong Kong court has sentenced democracy activists to prison terms of up to 16 months for their roles in demonstrations that led to a 79-day occupation of major roads in 2014. – New York Times

Afghan and international forces have killed more civilians in the war with the Taliban and other militants in the first three months of this year — the first time deaths caused by government forces and their allies have exceeded those of their enemies, a new U.N. report said Wednesday. – Associated Press

Africa

Hundreds of protesters arrived on a packed train in Khartoum Tuesday to join a weeks-long sit-in outside army headquarters, as a top US official reiterated Washington’s backing for demands the country’s military council hand power to a civilian government. – Agence France–Presse

African leaders at an emergency summit in Cairo urged Sudan’s military rulers on Tuesday to implement a democratic transition within three months, the Egyptian presidency said. – Agence France–Presse

Al Qaeda-linked militants in Mali claimed responsibility on Tuesday for an attack on a military base that killed at least 11 soldiers, saying it was revenge for the massacre of some 160 Fulani civilians last month, the SITE Intelligence Group said. – Reuters

South Sudanese rebels warned the nation could plunge again into all-out civil war if there isn’t a six-month delay to properly prepare a power-sharing government that seeks to end one of Africa’s worst conflicts. – Bloomberg

A Chabad rabbi and his wife were violently assaulted during a home invasion at a Chabad House in Nairobi, Kenya before dawn early Wednesday morning. – Arutz Sheva

Emmanuel Balogun and Anna Kapambwe Mwaba write: Citizens have continued to call for an immediate civilian government — a request that the military council denied Sunday. In response, the AU Peace and Security Council released a communique stating unequivocally that Bashir’s overthrow qualifies as an unconstitutional change in government and demanding that the Sudanese military hand over power to civilians within 15 days or else it will be suspended from the AU. But will it? Given the AU’s past inconsistency, it remains unclear whether the union will leverage its capacity and mandate to offer strong support for the will of Sudanese citizens. – Washington Post

Sarah Feuer writes: The administration’s impulse to streamline peacekeeping missions and make them more effective is understandable, but conditioning MINURSO’s renewal on elusive political progress could precipitate just the sort of military confrontation the force was created to deter. Limiting MINURSO’s peacekeeping abilities would heighten the sense of insecurity in Morocco, the Polisario, or both, raising the likelihood they would resort to military action. And given North Africa’s current volatility, any escalation in Western Sahara could plunge the region into greater instability. To avoid this outcome and preserve the momentum of recent talks, Washington should endorse MINURSO’s renewal in the upcoming vote and take other confidence-building steps. – Washington Institute

Karen E. Young writes: Developing countries from Africa to the Middle East to Asia now have some interesting choices in development finance partners. Where the money comes from matters. […]Sudan’s windfall today will be tomorrow’s institutional challenge, to build open and rule-based markets that create jobs and provide food for its citizens. – American Enterprise Institute

Cybersecurity

Concerned about the potential for cyberespionage or even sabotage, the United States last month took the extraordinary step of telling the German government not to include the Chinese firm Huawei in its plans to roll out the next generation of Internet technology. If Germany ignores the advice, officials have warned, U.S. intelligence sharing could be at stake. – Washington Post

New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said Wednesday that she and French President Emmanuel Macron will host a meeting in Paris next month seeking to eliminate acts of violent extremism and terrorism from being shown online. Ardern said she and Macron will ask world leaders and chief executives of technology companies to agree to a pledge called the “Christchurch Call,” named after the New Zealand city where an attack took place last month. – Associated Press

Britain will block China’s Huawei Technologies from all core parts of the 5G network and access to non-core parts will be restricted, a security source said. – Reuters

The heads of the international “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing agencies from the U.S., Australia, Canada and New Zealand will join the U.K. at a summit in Glasgow, Scotland, to discuss ways to combat cyber-crime and terrorism, as the host nation mulls a partial or total ban on telecoms giant Huawei Technologies Co. over national security concerns. – Bloomberg

Joshua Tucker writes: In the aftermath of Sunday’s violent terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka, the Sri Lankan government shut down access to social media sites as the investigation into the bombings proceeded. […]As stories proliferate about the links between misinformation on social media and violence, the temptation for policymakers to seek quick fixes in moments of crisis will undoubtedly grow, as well. That does not, however, mean that banning access to social media at these moments will reduce the risk of violence. – Washington Post

Bill Greenwalt writes: As U.S. technological dominance diminishes and the threat from China and Russia grows stronger, a true allied partnership will need to be formed — one that comes with fewer U.S.-mandated controls in order to incentivize greater defense-industrial collaboration. The establishment of such a partnership should not be not based on some muddle-headed call for cooperation for cooperation’s sake, but because it is in the United States’ national security interest to do so. – Defense News

Long War

Ten women repatriated to Kosovo from Syria at the weekend have been placed under house arrest on charges of participating in terrorist groups, a court said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Human rights lawyer Amal Clooney on Tuesday demanded justice for victims of an “epidemic of sexual violence” in conflicts, especially rapes and other abuses perpetrated by Islamic State extremists in Iraq and Syria. – Associated Press

David Ignatius writes: One disturbing aspect of the Easter Sunday bombings in Sri Lanka was that the slaughter of 321 victims came at a time when the United States is suffering what might be described as terrorism fatigue. The wars against al-Qaeda and the Islamic State are part of a painful past that policymakers and the public want to escape.  […]But the networks of violent extremists are still there, stretching to places most of us probably hadn’t even imagined, like Sri Lanka. – Washington Post