Fdd's overnight brief

April 10, 2024

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News


The killing of three private security contractors in last week’s Israeli strike on an aid convoy in Gaza shined light on an industry that in recent years has shifted from working for military forces to helping protect humanitarian organizations that operate in conflict zones. – Wall Street Journal

After hearing that Israeli ground troops were leaving Khan Younis on Sunday, Walid Abu Amro traveled north from the tent he was sheltering in southern Gaza to check his home. – Wall Street Journal

Israel and Hamas on Tuesday were considering a new U.S. proposal for a cease-fire in the war in Gaza and the freeing of some hostages still held by the militant group, but mediators cautioned that the two sides remained far from a deal. – Wall Street Journal

Germany on Tuesday defended itself against accusations that its arms sales to Israel were abetting genocide in Gaza, arguing at the International Court of Justice that most of the equipment it has supplied since Oct. 7 was nonlethal and that it has also been one of the largest donors of humanitarian aid to the Palestinians. – New York Times

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III told a Senate committee on Tuesday that the Pentagon had no evidence that Israel was carrying out a genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. – New York Times

Israel says aid is moving into Gaza more quickly after international pressure to increase access, but the amount is disputed and the United Nations says it is still much less than the bare minimum to meet humanitarian needs. – Reuters 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s approach to the war in Gaza is a “mistake,” U.S. President Joe Biden said in an interview published on Tuesday, offering further criticism of Israel’s handling of the conflict. – Reuters

U.S. Agency for International Development Administrator Samantha Power acknowledged on Tuesday that humanitarian aid into Gaza had risen sharply in the past few days, and said the higher level of aid should be sustained and increased further. – Reuters

Turkey restricted exports of a wide range of products to Israel on Tuesday until a ceasefire is declared in Gaza, in Ankara’s first significant measure against Israel after six months of war. – Reuters

The Israeli defence ministry is purchasing 40,000 tents ahead of an evacuation of the southern Gaza city of Rafah, which Israel has said it plans to assault to destroy remaining battalions of the Hamas militant group, Israeli media reported on Tuesday. – Reuters

Israel for the first time used a seaborne missile defence system to shoot down a drone approaching from the Red Sea that had set off sirens in the port city of Eilat, the military said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Israel will complete the elimination of Hamas’ brigades, including in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, and nothing will prevent this, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Amid rising fears of a security escalation from Iran, Ashdod Mayor Yehiel Lasri sent a message to the city’s 250,000 residents on Sunday morning warning of possible missile attacks and instructing them to make the necessary emergency preparations. – Haaretz

Editorial: Why stop there? Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine now wants the White House to “withhold bombs and other offensive weapons that can kill and wound civilians.” Never mind that “offensive weapons” are necessary to defeat terrorists. Rep. Nancy Pelosi and 55 House Democrats also demand the White House cut off weapons to Israel—even while Hamas and Hezbollah fire on it, and Iran threatens an attack. When nearly the only message for weeks from the White House is to castigate Israel for the war’s toll, what do you expect from the camp followers? Betrayal is in the air. – Wall Street Journal

John Spencer and Liam Collins write: Ditto for the Battle of Mosul in 2016-17, when the U.S.-backed Iraqis employed conventional land and air power against a much smaller force in a less defensive posture than Israel faces in Gaza. Recent history has proved that commando raids and precision strikes are a tactic, not a strategy to win a war. No matter how much Washington argues to the contrary, Israel understands the fallacy. – Wall Street Journal

Yisrael Medad writes: His method is shared by many other denigrators of Zionism and is but a form of a totalitarian newspeak. As George Orwell wrote in his 1946 essay, “Politics and the English Language,” “if thought corrupts language, language can also corrupt thought.” And as he added, “debased language… is in some ways very convenient.” Israel needs better-trained warriors on its third-front battles. – Jerusalem Post

Prof. Louis René Beres writes: But they could still end up fighting in a catastrophic war. Among related considerations, this means that Israel should immediately muster its critical existential defenses against any formalized creation of “Palestine.” This survival obligation will remain “in force” even if such misguided creation is brokered by the “good offices” of an American president.Arutz Sheva

Dov S. Zakheim writes: Or he could instruct the American delegation to the United Nations to support, rather than abstain on, a new resolution condemning the Israeli operation. Surely, Netanyahu must be aware that he has treated the president with disdain once too often. He is playing with American fire. If he does not take heed of American concerns, his country, already reeling from the horrors of October 7 and the plight of the hostages, will indeed be burned as a result. – The National Interest

Michael Hirsh writes: That in turn gave rise to another intifada and ultimately the takeover of Gaza by Hamas. All in all, the nearly two-decade-long Oslo ordeal left many Israelis dubious of U.S.-led peace efforts. And that was before Oct. 7. It is likely to be doubly true today. All signs point to a long and bloody quagmire ahead. Israel is indeed confronting its own 9/11— in more ways than one. – Foreign Policy


Iran is operating a clandestine smuggling route across the Middle East, employing intelligence operatives, militants and criminal gangs, to deliver weapons to Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, according to officials from the United States, Israel and Iran. – New York Times

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said on Wednesday that Israel “must be punished and it shall be” for attacking the Iranian embassy compound in Syria. – Reuters

Sunni militants attacked two police cars in southeast Iran on Tuesday, killing at least five police officers and wounding one, Iranian state TV reported. – Reuters

The commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard’s navy said on Tuesday Israel’s presence in the United Arab Emirates was viewed as a threat by Tehran and it could close the Strait of Hormuz if deemed necessary. – Reuters

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi called Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid to call for a “collective effort” against Israel, according to a report in the pro-Iranian Al-Mayadeen media. – Jerusalem Post

Hal Brands writes: The Biden administration has mostly gone quiet about the Iranian nuclear issue. Perhaps it is trying, behind the scenes, to negotiate some standstill arrangement. Or perhaps it has no good answers to a devilishly difficult challenge and is trying to focus on one problem at a time. Whatever the case, it’s wishful thinking to expect that an end of the war in Gaza will lead to any sustained regional decompression. More likely, it will usher in the dangerous next phases of a deep, protracted crisis of Middle Eastern security. – Bloomberg

Brig. Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser writes: Many other options are possible and clearly Israel has to take the necessary measures to foil them, even if the probability that Iran will employ them is low. As for the damage to the Iranian effort to encircle Israel with Iranian proxies caused by the elimination of some of the key operatives who are responsible for promoting it, there might be a short-lived harm as the experienced leadership is replaced, but the commitment of Iran to this effort will remain very high. – Ynet

Russia & Ukraine

Masked Ukrainian security officers have raided properties, seized wads of cash and detained suspects in a recent crackdown on graft in the purchase of goods for the military ranging from eggs to artillery shells. – Wall Street Journal

The Pentagon has provided Ukraine with thousands of Iranian-origin weapons seized en route to Houthi militants in Yemen, U.S. officials said Tuesday, marking the Biden administration’s latest infusion of emergency support for Kyiv while a multibillion-dollar aid package remains stalled in Congress. – Washington Post

Russia launched 17 attack drones and several missiles targeting Ukraine’s south, Ukrainian air force and administrative officials said on Wednesday, with the country’s defences downing 14 of the drones and two guided air missiles. – Reuters

The U.N. nuclear watchdog’s Board of Governors will hold an emergency meeting on Thursday at the request of both Ukraine and Russia to discuss attacks on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, after the enemies accused each other of drone attacks. – Reuters

Ukraine’s air defence systems destroyed 20 attack drones launched by Russia overnight targeting seven Ukrainian regions across the country, Ukrainian Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Ukraine’s military spy agency GUR struck a main production facility of a Russian aviation factory in Russia’s Voronezh region, a Ukrainian intelligence source told Reuters. – Reuters

The European Union moved closer to extending its tariff-free trade with Ukraine, while tightening rules on food imports to placate protesting farmers’ concerns about oversupply. – Bloomberg

Ukrainian military intelligence was responsible for an attack on a Russian naval missile carrier in the Baltic Sea, according to an official familiar with the operation, underscoring Kyiv’s effort to strike Kremlin forces far from the front line. – Bloomberg

Michelle Grisé writes: Growing military and economic ties between Russia and Iran pose a threat to U.S. and Western interests; however, their relationship remains largely transactional. The Ukraine war has incentivized them to paper over their disputes for now, but it has not erased significant differences in the two countries’ threat perceptions, worldviews and strategic priorities. These differences are not insurmountable, but they ultimately make it more difficult for Moscow and Tehran to forge a true strategic partnership. – The Hill

Michael Peck writes: If there is any comfort to Ukrainians, it’s simply that Russia’s wonder weapons have yet to provide a decisive advantage. Bombs that leave big craters are useful, but ultimately the suicide battalions of paroled convicts and sullen conscripts will have to go in. Ukrainians can make those attacks as costly as possible while waiting for some technological countermeasure that will at least partly mitigate the glide bomb threat. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Olena Lapenko writes: Sanctions are effective only if the United States, along with the G-7+ coalition, demonstrates unity, strength, and resilience. Closer trans-Atlantic cooperation can create opportunities to reduce dependence on Russia and increase pressure on Moscow. If Russia’s nuclear industry remains sanctions-free, it will not only undermine clear U.S. foreign-policy goals but also risk failure in U.S. efforts to support Ukraine’s essential fight for freedom. – Foreign Policy


Clashes in Syria’s Daraa Governorate on Sunday resulted in the deaths of at least 20 individuals, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF on Tuesday evening struck military infrastructure that, based on precise intelligence, was used by the Hezbollah terrorist organization on the Syrian front. – Artuz Sheva

Mohammed Hassan writes: Al-Qahtani’s death is in the interest of all of his opponents. The first of those is al-Julani, since Abu Maria was his main competitor for the position of commander-in-chief. Al-Qahtani’s death also benefits other movements that he fought and tried to dismantle, such as ISIS, Hurras al-Din, and others. While Abu Maria al-Qahtani’s controversial days are over, only time will tell who was responsible for his assassination and the impact it will have on the Syrian landscape. – Middle East Institute 


The killing of a local politician has deepened sectarian and political faultines in Lebanon, raising fears of armed clashes between rival factions in a country already beset by a deep economic crisis, and cross-border shelling linked to the Gaza War. – Reuters

On Tuesday, the IDF attacked military infrastructure that was placed on the frontline between Syrian and Israeli territory, which intelligence indicated was in use by Hezbollah, according to an IDF statement – Jerusalem Post

Major General Aroldo Lazaro Saenz, head of Mission and Force Commander, United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), the UN military force entrusted with peacekeeping in southern Lebanon, said he believes that the danger of an escalation on the Israel-Lebanon border is “real.” – Ynet

Middle East & North Africa

The U.S. military said on Tuesday that it had destroyed an inbound anti-ship ballistic missile over the Gulf of Aden that was launched by Iranian-backed Houthis and likely targeting the MV Yorktown. – Reuters

An activist who criticized Morocco’s decision to normalize relations with Israel was sentenced to five years in prison, as some of the Arab world’s largest pro-Palestinian protests continue to sweep the country. – Associated Press

The Kingdom of Bahrain announced on Monday the release of 1,584 prisoners, some of whom were serving life sentences and others who had been convicted in relation to the protests of 2011. – Jerusalem Post

Saudi Arabia plans to merge its air and space forces into a single organization sometime this year, three Saudi military officials told Breaking Defense, in part of what experts say is an ambitious but ultimately long-term plan for the Kingdom to develop robust space-based defense capabilities. – Breaking Defense

Korean Peninsula

In the two years since he was elected, President Yoon Suk Yeol has made his mark in foreign policy, forging deeper ties with the United States and Japan. But his business-friendly domestic agenda has been stalled by his own missteps and an opposition-controlled Parliament. – Washington Post

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said on Tuesday his country will invest 9.4 trillion won ($6.94 billion) in artificial intelligence by 2027 as part of efforts to retain a leading global position in cutting-edge semiconductor chips. – Reuters

South Koreans voted to elect a new parliament on Wednesday in a bitterly fought race seen by some analysts as a referendum on President Yoon Suk Yeol, whose popularity has suffered amid a cost-of-living crisis and a spate of political scandals. – Reuters

Bruce W. Bennett writes: By the time North Korea can deploy a more capable hypersonic missile, the United States may well have fielded an advanced defense system capable of dealing with it. While North Korea’s recent test flight failed to establish hypersonic missiles as the latest addition to its arsenal of threats, it did demonstrate that the regime of Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un remains deeply engaged in the pursuit of new tools of intimidation and coercion. – The National Interest


Russia and China have pledged to deepen their growing alliance and shared opposition to what they describe as the U.S.’s attempts to dominate the world order, with Moscow again seeking to boost trade with Beijing as it looks for new ways to bypass the Western sanctions imposed for its war on Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. is considering easing advisories against its citizens traveling to China, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said on Tuesday, acknowledging concerns that the warnings may have curtailed exchanges between Americans and Chinese people. – Reuters

China’s Taiwan Affairs Office on Wednesday called remarks made by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell dangerous, after he suggested the AUKUS submarine project between Australia, Britain and the U.S. could help deter any Chinese move against Taiwan. – Reuters

The U.S. Coast Guard has rejected comments by a Chinese diplomat that its recent boardings of Chinese fishing boats in the Pacific Islands alongside local police are illegal, saying the joint patrols are at the behest of Pacific nations to protect coastal fisheries. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Tuesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping plan to have contacts but it gave no time frame for a possible Putin visit to Beijing. – Reuters

Fitch cut its outlook on China’s sovereign credit rating to negative on Wednesday, citing risks to public finances as the economy faces increasing uncertainty in its shift to new growth models. – Reuters

US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack implied that China may be favoring Brazilian corn and soybeans partly in retaliation against recent restrictions on ownership of American farmland. – Bloomberg

Karishma Vaswani writes: Failing to adequately defend the waterway from China’s claims would only confirm Beijing’s view that the US won’t follow through with its Indo-Pacific rhetoric and is preoccupied with domestic problems. It is not just American credibility at stake: The South China Sea is emblematic of how much control China will be able to exert in this part of the world. Ignoring that would allow Beijing’s narrative to persist unchallenged. – Bloomberg

South Asia

A popular opposition figure is in prison. Another major party’s election funds have been seized. As India, the world’s largest democracy, gears up for elections in less than two weeks, investors from the world’s oldest democracy are embracing it like never before. – Wall Street Journal

Pakistani authorities have deployed more than 100,000 police and paramilitary forces at mosques and marketplaces across the country ahead of the massive Eid al-Fitr holiday, officials said Tuesday. – Associated Press

Hundreds of protesters demanding the restoration of the monarchy in Nepal clashed with riot police on Tuesday in Kathmandu. – Associated Press

Pakistan’s new finance minister is on a mission to fix his country. To many, it’s an unenviable task. Muhammad Aurangzeb took up the post last month at a time when Pakistan’s economy is enduring the most turbulent period in its history. – Bloomberg


The leaders of the United States and Japan this week will commit to modernizing their military alliance, with the aim of eventually creating a truly operational hub for the most consequential defense partnership in the Pacific. – Washington Post

Vietnam aims to start building two high-speed railway lines linking its capital Hanoi with China before 2030, the Ministry of Planning and Investment said, another sign of a recent warming of ties between the two Communist-ruled neighbours. – Reuters

Taiwan President-elect Lai Ching-te appointed Cho Jung-tai, a former chairman of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), to be his premier on Wednesday, with appointments for other roles such as foreign minister due to be announced soon. – Reuters

There were sensitive issues in initiating talks between Myanmar’s junta and anti-junta groups, Thailand’s Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin said after a cabinet meeting that discussed the escalating conflict in its neighbouring country. – Reuters

The Vatican’s foreign minister Paul Richard Gallagher began an unprecedented six-day visit to Communist-ruled Vietnam on Tuesday as the two sides work on closer relations. – Reuters

Thai authorities have postponed until next month a hearing with influential former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra on whether to indict him over a royal insult complaint, officials said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida began a much-anticipated visit to Washington on Tuesday that spotlights shared concerns about provocative Chinese military action in the Pacific and at a rare moment of public difference between the two nations over a Japanese company’s plan to buy an iconic U.S. company. – Associated Press

Millions of Indonesians are packing bus and train stations, airports and highways as they head to hometowns to celebrate Thursday’s Eid al-Fitr festival with family. – Associated Press

The White House summit Thursday between President Joe Biden, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has one overriding goal: deepening US cooperation with two key allies on the front lines of tensions with China. – Bloomberg

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said he’s “horrified” to learn of an agreement between his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, and China that bars Manila from shipping construction materials to a military outpost in a disputed shoal in the South China Sea. – Bloomberg

Australia’s foreign minister has suggested the country could recognise Palestinian statehood, to increase momentum towards peace. However Hamas could have no role in its governance, Penny Wong said. – BBC

Daniel Moss writes: This challenge will outlast the current Thai premier or any of the generals that may aspire to succeed him. The innovation and urgency are well-placed. The direction is correct. The trick will be sustaining the pace of innovation. Thailand’s reinvention is one for the long haul. – Bloomberg

Alexander Gabuev writes: When considering how to protect European and Asian security, rein in climate change, govern new disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence, and address the challenges facing global financial architecture, Western policymakers must now reckon with the reality of an increasingly resolute Sino-Russian axis. – Foreign Affairs

John Lee writes: From a different culture and history, Japan has come to the same conclusion, and about its role in the world. Unlike the many diplomatic bodies in the Indo-Pacific, AUKUS is one which might make a difference in terms of altering the balance of power and putting constraints on Beijing. The possibility of Japan joining suggests AUKUS was and remains about the future and not the past. – Financial Review


In a major ruling Tuesday, Europe’s top human-rights court gave a boost to climate activists who are suing for tough limits on greenhouse-gas emissions, a decision expected to affect dozens of climate lawsuits against governments and corporations. – Wall Street Journal

Public safety officials in England, France and Spain said Tuesday that they would step up security for matches this week in the Champions League, Europe’s marquee soccer competition, after ISIS-related groups called for violent attacks on the contests.- New York Times

France’s foreign minister said on Tuesday that pressure, and possibly sanctions, must be imposed on Israel to open crossings to get humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza. – Reuters

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will meet several of his European Union counterparts over the next week to try to garner support for the recognition of a Palestinian state, the government said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Britain will not halt arms sales to Israel by British companies having reviewed the latest legal advice on the matter, Foreign Minister David Cameron said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Six northern Europe countries bordering the North Sea said Tuesday that they have signed an agreement to work together to protect underwater infrastructure in the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean from an increased risk of sabotage. – Associated Press

NATO has “no time” to lose as Europe’s military industry ramps up production to keep pace with Russia’s war economy, Lithuania’s defense chief said. – Bloomberg

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius wants to buy 35 additional Leopard 2 A8 battle tanks to bolster a planned brigade in Lithuania under NATO’s joint efforts to secure Europe’s eastern flank against Russia, two people familiar with the matter said. – Bloomberg

Germany on Tuesday hit back at accusations from Nicaragua at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) that it has been “facilitating genocide” in Gaza through its support for Israel, insisting that Israeli security is at the “core” of German foreign policy, CNN reported. – Arutz Sheva

Irish Deputy Premier and Foreign Minister Micheal Martin said on Tuesday that formal recognition of “Palestine” by Ireland “will happen”, The Independent reported. Speaking in the Dail parliament, Martin said he was bringing a formal proposal on the recognition of Palestinian statehood to Government. – Arutz Sheva

Serbia soon plans on ordering 12 Rafale fighter jets from Dassault after its president, Aleksandar Vucic, held talks with French President Emmanuel Macron as well as senior official from the French manufacturer during a two-day state visit to France. – Breaking Defense

Months of Russian GPS spoofing in the Baltic Sea isn’t just unsafe; the interference with aircraft and shipping is hurting the regional economy—and it’s time for NATO to take action, the head of Sweden’s Navy said Monday. – Defense One

Tim Sweijs and Paul van Hooft write: Maritime security from a European perspective would thus extend in any real military sense to the western Indian Ocean. The Thucydides Trap is not preordained, and there is nothing inevitable about a Sino-American confrontation. European states should continue to underline to their American and Chinese counterparts that it is time to cool down the rising temperature of the great power relationship; two world wars were more than enough. – War on the Rocks


Last year’s coup in Niger could bring about a surge in irregular arrivals to the European Union, Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson said on Tuesday, the eve of a key vote on overhauling the bloc’s migration rules ahead of a June election. – Reuters

A year into Sudan’s civil war, Iranian-made armed drones have helped the army turn the tide of the conflict, halting the progress of the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Force and regaining territory around the capital, a senior army source told Reuters. – Reuters

Drones hit the Sudanese city of al-Gadaref on Tuesday, eyewitnesses and the local governor said, bringing the country’s devastating war to a calm farming state where almost half a million displaced people have taken refuge. – Reuters

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Rwandan President Paul Kagame are looking forward to the first flights under Britain’s plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda departing in the spring, a readout of their meeting said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The U.S. must boost commercial ties with African countries to curb reliance on China for supplies of critical minerals, a Washington-based think tank said on Tuesday. – Reuters

South Africa’s Electoral Court on Tuesday ruled that former President Jacob Zuma can run for office in the upcoming general election, overturning an earlier decision that had barred him from contesting the polls. – Associated Press

Three Tanzanian soldiers were killed and three others injured after a mortar shell landed near their camp in eastern Congo, where the Tanzanians are deployed under the banner of a regional bloc to help quell violence. – Associated Press

Latin America

Former president Álvaro Uribe, one of the most powerful leaders in Colombian history, is set to become the country’s first president to face a criminal trial, on charges of procedural fraud and bribery. – Washington Post

Venezuelan former oil minister Tareck El Aissami, once one of the most influential officials in President Nicolas Maduro’s government, has been arrested in a corruption probe into state oil company PDVSA, the attorney general said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Argentina’s Banco Galicia, buying HSBC’s local assets in a near $500 million deal, is betting that new libertarian President Javier Milei will bring down soaring inflation and ease rates to boost lending in the South American nation. – Reuters

The United States condemned on Tuesday Ecuador’s use of force against embassy officials after its police and soldiers raided Mexico’s embassy last week to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas. – Reuters

Former Ecuadorean Vice President Jorge Glas is back in prison in the city of Guayaquil after being discharged from the hospital and is in acceptable health, the SNAI prisons agency said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Colombian leftist rebel group the National Liberation Army (ELN) has requested an extraordinary meeting with the government, saying peace talks were in a “critical state,” sources from the government and the rebel group said. – Reuters

North America

Canada has waded into the contentious issue of regulating online content with a sweeping proposal that would force technology companies to restrict and remove harmful material, especially posts involving children, that appears on their platforms. – New York Times

Mexico President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador suggested on Tuesday that Ecuador felt supported by other governments in its raid on Mexico’s embassy in Quito, which drew criticism from governments across Latin America. – Reuters

Fresh gunfire erupted Tuesday in downtown Port-au-Prince, forcing aid workers to halt urgently needed care for thousands of Haitians. – Associated Press

Mariana Campero writes: That would help her keep the radical wing of Morena and Lopez Obrador at bay. The opposite will be true for Gálvez. She would need the full support of her coalition parties, which so far she has not enjoyed. In either case, let’s hope that voters in key northern States — the ones that depend the most on U.S. exports — make their voices heard better than they did in the 2018 election, when higher southern participation gave Lopez Obrador his landslide victory. – The Hill

United States

President Joe Biden is seeking to revive interest in a plan to build the first high-speed rail in the U. S. using Japanese bullet trains, with sources saying he is likely to discuss the project with Japan’s prime minister in Washington this week. – Reuters

Donald Trump and British Foreign Secretary David Cameron had dinner on Monday at the Republican presidential candidate’s Florida home where they discussed the Ukraine war and “the need for NATO countries to meet their defense spending requirements,” Trump’s campaign said on Tuesday. – Reuters

President Joe Biden said he’s still considering unilateral action to shut the southern US border, and studying whether he has legal authority to do that without congressional approval. – Bloomberg

Vice President Harris on Tuesday met with family members of Americans still being held hostage by Hamas as the administration pushes for a cease-fire in Gaza that would lead to their release. – The Hill

Editorial: The data gathered under 702 has typically been most useful in the early stages of an investigation, before probable cause can be established. At that stage, agents often know little about a U.S. person of potential interest beyond that they’re interacting with or being talked about by a foreign intelligence target. Imposing a warrant requirement risks re-erecting the wall that existed between domestic law enforcement and foreign intelligence gathering before Sept. 11, 2001. The House should embrace 702 reform — not the mistakes of the past. – Washington Post

John Bolton writes: No one believes these actions amount to a mini-North Atlantic Treaty Organization, as Mr. Biden’s White House is at pains to emphasize publicly. Nonetheless, enhanced collective defense programs against Chinese and North Korean belligerence are necessary and urgent. Each additional measure helps solidify growing operational coordination on matters of mutual security, and makes it harder for Mr. Trump, if re-elected, to roll them back. – Wall Street Journal

Christopher Caldwell writes: For decades now, the United States has been deferring hard decisions at home and abroad and papering over partisan divisions with the tens of trillions of dollars that our advantageous international position has allowed us to borrow. Our options, though, are narrowing. If Mr. Johnson thinks the United States is “projecting weakness” now, wait till he sees it without its reserve currency. – New York Times

Jeffrey W. Hornung writes: But there are too many political and diplomatic issues that would have to be resolved to get to that step. Many describe NATO as the United States’ indispensable alliance—and it remains a top priority. But given the geopolitical shift to the Indo-Pacific, it is time to make the U.S.-Japanese alliance far more central to American grand strategy. – Foreign Affairs


Independent browser companies in the European Union are seeing a spike in users in the first month after EU legislation forced Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), and Apple (AAPL.O), to make it easier for users to switch to rivals, according to data provided to Reuters by six companies. – Reuters

Cyber defense chief Gaby Portnoy warned on Tuesday that the intensity of cyberattacks against Israel has tripled since the outbreak of the Hamas war on October 7, as Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah, are increasingly joining hacking efforts. – Times of Israel

When the payment processor Change Healthcare was breached in a ransomware attack last month as part of an incident that crippled parts of the U.S. health care system, the group that claimed responsibility said it had stolen some 6 terabytes of data. – Cyberscoop

Over 200 nonprofits, online research organizations and civil society groups are calling on social media platforms to step up their content moderation efforts ahead of elections in the United States and dozens of other countries this year. – Cyberscoop

Micol Bertolini writes: Since its launch three years ago, the TTC has helped repair and strengthen the transatlantic relationship. But it must be boosted. A permanent platform needs to be constructed. Stakeholder engagement should be expanded and real commercial benefits delivered. Is this possible? It’s far from sure. We will need to wait for the next elections and see if a TTC can survive and be reinvigorated. – Center for European Policy Analysis


The United States will sell Ukraine up to $138 million worth of equipment to maintain and upgrade its HAWK air defense systems to help defend against Russian drone and cruise missile attacks, a U.S. State Department official told Reuters on Tuesday. – Reuters

The National Reconnaissance Office could launch the first satellites in its proliferated space architecture as soon as next month, according to a top agency official. – Defense News

The Air Force is seeing the unit cost of the B-21 Raider, its next stealth bomber, come down after negotiations with manufacturer Northrop Grumman, the service’s secretary said Tuesday. – Defense News

Creating a new robotics warfare specialist rating signified a critical step in achieving a “truly hybrid” fleet, the Navy’s top civilian said Tuesday. – Defense News

Republican lawmakers will introduce a new bill Wednesday to accelerate the Defense Department’s use of quantum information science, from sensing and navigation to more ambitious goals of quantum computing for advanced artificial intelligence applications. – Defense One

According to the commander of U.S. submarine forces, the Australian-United Kingdom-United States agreement means “more subs forward” to deter Chinese territorial ambitions in the Indo-Pacific. – USNI News

While the Pentagon is standing up a new Joint Task Force-Micronesia under the direction of a two-star admiral, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told lawmakers his team is still studying the pros and cons of a regional, operational joint force headquarters. – Breaking Defense

The Navy’s secretive Project Overmatch is ahead of schedule and the service is reaching out eagerly to industry for new tech it can fast-track to the fleet, the head of Naval Information Warfare Systems Command said today. – Breaking Defense

Editorial: A final concern is shipbuilders’ reliance on union contracts that prohibit their hiring of freelancers to fill workforce gaps. If the nation is to resolve its shipbuilding delays, all available talent must be made available. National defense legislation is needed to protect shipbuilders who hire nonunion workers and compel work from union workers. Far greater effort must be taken to ensure that more warships are built quickly. – Washington Examiner

James Holmes writes: Military people and the weapons they carry are capability made manifest. They are implements of deterrence, coercion, and reassurance. Their professionalism, skill, and elan contribute directly to victory in the war for perceptions. Soldiers, marines, sailors, and airmen should think of themselves in these terms, and dream up new and enterprising ways to work together. If they do, they—and the society they serve—may prosper in strife-torn times such as our own. – The National Interest