Obama’s Middle East Gambit Abandoned?

Obama nevertheless will face skepticism on the right, aside from the cost. Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies expressed concern that we are just going to be shoveling money at unstable states: “Rather than blindly providing aid to Middle East countries undergoing transition, we should make it clear that we will only provide support for those countries that are making real progress. That means demonstrating increased respect for human, minority and women’s rights, among other reforms. We should also make it clear that that we’re not going to provide support to countries that appear to be drifting toward Islamist or populist rule.” Egypt may get there, and the Obama administration may be savvy enough to dole out aid when conditions are met. But for now, as Schanzer notes, “Cairo has yet to prove itself on these fronts.”

As for Iran, Schanzer’s colleague Mark Dubowitz, who has been a key player in developing and analyzing sanctions, e-mailed me last night: “I am hoping for forceful comments by Obama on Iran, the most significant threat to both the Arab Spring and American national security. Everyone has taken their eye off the Iranian ball during the tumult of the past few months. Obama needs to get everyone refocused.” He added, “Obama must directly address the issue and make it clear that his administration will never tolerate an Iranian bomb which will be a weapon of both mass oppression and of destruction, and will destroy any hope of liberal democracy in the Arab world.” The opportunity exists here to undo some of the damage done by Obama’s muteness during the Green Revolution. As Dubowitz put it, “He must ask Iran’s leaders to tear down their wall of fear and repression. He must finally speak to the brave Iranians who long for a future free of murder, torture and rape at the hands of their rulers.”

If Obama were to ignore Iran and save that for Sunday’s AIPAC appearance, he would send a bad message. Dubowitz suggested that would give “all the proof you need that his AIPAC speech is a political speech meant to reassure Jewish donors concerned about his handling of Israel.” And it would perpetuate the notion that Iran is Israel’s problem, not ours. In fact, if the Arab Spring has demonstrated anything, it is that an aggressive Iranian regime poses a threat to the entire region.