Kudlow & Company

Welcome back, folks. Here at KUDLOW & COMPANY, we believe in the triumph of free-market capitalism, and we are heartened by the dominoes of democracy that are spreading across the Middle East and about the potential positive impact on our economy here at home because of greater peace over there.

Anyway, this week crowds of up to a million people have been demonstrating in the streets of Beirut, pushing Syria to withdraw from Lebanon. I believe it’s gonna happen. But will Hezbollah go quietly, and ultimately, who’s gonna be left in charge of Lebanon? Joining us now from Beirut, Lebanon, is our friend, star journalist Claudia Rosett. She’s with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, writes for lots of newspapers, appears on KUDLOW & COMPANY.

Claudia, it is wonderful to see you safe and sound. Let me begin with this question. What is the political impact of this million-person march not only on Lebanon, but does it echo and reverberate throughout the so-called Arab street in the Middle East?

Ms. CLAUDIA ROSETT (Foundation of the Defense of Democracies): Oh, of course, Larry. I should add I’m here reporting for The New York Sun, which you just mentioned in your–yes, of course it echoes. People are watching this. In fact, Lebanese television reaches into Syria itself, and there are reports of tremors going on there right now. And people are not stupid. They see that there are opportunities to actually stand up and speak for themselves. They look for ways to do it. And it’s just what’s been happening in Lebanon, which is actually–of all the countries in the Middle East, has the deepest democratic foundations from before the civil war. There is real promise here.

KUDLOW: Claudia, can this Lebanon democracy movement actually spread into Syria, into Damascus? How realistic is that hypothesis?

Ms. ROSETT: Well, let’s take Lebanon first, you know, where the seed of revolution is not yet entirely out of the woods. And again, these things are not necessarily neat. Step one is Syria should have been out of Lebanon years ago. You know, it’s a totalitarian regime. They have no business running Syria, let alone Lebanon.

And what will then come? It’s hard to say. There is a large question of what will happen with Hezbollah, which has heavy weapons. These are–you know, that’s–and a terrorist record. There’s quite a bit to deal with there. But part of what has helped keep the Syrian regime in power for all these years is it has served basically as the colonial overlord of Lebanon, a source of money, of traffic, prestige and so on. Remove that and you’re left with a fairly isolated Syria. It’s backed up against Iran.

And the Syrians themselves have had a miserable time with their own government. It’s a desperately poor country. It’s a horribly repressive country. There’s no reason to believe that that is a popular government at all.

KUDLOW: Claudia…

Ms. ROSETT: And they are seeing right now what can happen when–yeah.

KUDLOW: Let me go–you’re there.

Ms. ROSETT: Yes.

KUDLOW: You’re on the scene. You’ve actually been in…

Ms. ROSETT: Yes.

KUDLOW: …according to your New York Sun reports. Are the marchers anti-Syria, and are they pro-American? I mean, I know they want Syria out. Are they welcoming America…

Ms. ROSETT: Yeah.

KUDLOW: …both in fact and in spirit?

Ms. ROSETT: That is certainly what came across at the demonstration on Monday at that enormous demonstration. I was prepared for anti-Americanism. I got welcomes, handshakes, a sign that said `Thank you, free world.’ I heard people praising George Bush here. In fact, it’s not only praise; what they are saying over and over again is `Please do not forget us,’ that George Bush has spoken up to say he backs this democratic revolution, and we have not always kept faith with Lebanon. We abandoned this country to Syria years ago. And they are saying, `Please, now that you’re back, don’t forget us.’ There is–you know, the first priority of this has been Syria out. That is the cry. But what I have heard over and over from Lebanese here is `We like Americans.’

KUDLOW: Right.

Ms. ROSETT: In fact, one quick anecdote: Someone who thought I was French walking by, these two young men, called out, `Viva la France,’ and I said, `I’m actually American.’ And they got to their feet and came over and said, `Welcome to Lebanon.’

KUDLOW: Ah, that’s great. Well, all right, another question. Hezbollah is not gonna go quietly. Here in Washington and New York, there’s a flap today. President Bush is reaching out to Hezbollah to say, `If you put down your terrorist arms, you can come into the political process.’ Senator Chuck Schumer, on the other hand, saying, `These are terrorists, they’ve killed so many Israelis, they’ve stopped peace in the Middle East, and we can’t let them go this easily.’ What’s your thinking about Hezbollah? Are they gonna go? Will they come into the political process? Can they be trusted?

Ms. ROSETT: No, they certainly can’t be trusted. There was an old saying from the North Vietnamese, `Talk, talk, fight, fight.’ And there’s a lot of talking going on right now as well as demonstrating. But it was only eight days ago that Hezbollah wrapped itself in the Lebanese flag and showed up, basically making its bid to get into this process, basically hijacking what the demonstrators and the opposition had been doing. And that is far too soon, and there is no evidence on the ground at this point that they are in good faith. You know, wait to see that. Listen to them, but there’s no reason to trust anything here until you see real signs that they are disarming, that they stop preaching the kind of hate that they broadcast from their television station. There are real signs to watch for.

KUDLOW: And…

Ms. ROSETT: We haven’t seen those yet.

KUDLOW: And let me ask our final question. This will be your last word, last 45 seconds. Will there be elections…

Ms. ROSETT: Yeah.

KUDLOW: …parliamentary elections in May, and will it be necessary for the United States and maybe France and maybe others from the United Nations to have soldiers on the ground to permit an election?

Ms. ROSETT: Larry, to the extent possible, this has got to be left to the Lebanese. It is so important. They have had everybody meddling in here. There is all kinds of pressure the US can bring to bear on Syria without sending troops into Lebanon. The thing we have to do is create the room for them to do that, create the international pressure and hope that that gets us to elections by the end of May here. Those have got to take place. It has to start to give somewhere.

KUDLOW: All right. Claudia Rosett from Beirut, Lebanon, New York Sun. Thank you, Claudia. Hope to you see you soon right here in New York.

Ms. ROSETT: Thank you.

KUDLOW: All right.