Market Call

Joining me to make the “Tough Call” is Chris Preble, of the CATO Institute, and Eleana Gordon, of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Good to have you on the program.

Eleana, let me start with you. It sounds like a very laudable (ph) goal. But is it really achievable?

ELEANA GORDON, FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES: It is a difficult one. I think it’s one on which the Bush administration has had a lot more rhetoric than very concrete policy. But I think it’s one where there’s no choice. We have to help the Middle East move forward.

It’s an economic imperative for them. It’s a national security imperative for us. Because there’s a clear link between their failures and the terrorist threat that is threatening our democracies.

At the same time, when we don’t do anything, we end up supporting the dictators. We are criticizing the Arab World for supporting many atrocities. So it’s not like we’re a neutral force in any case. We always influence the Middle East. Let’s at least influence it towards democracy.

SCHAFFLER: Chris, how important will the expected success of Iraq, according to the Bush administration, be toward this overall goal?

CHRIS PREBLE, CATO INSTITUTE: Well, I would start by questioning the likelihood of success, and certainly success in the very near term. The problem with the case of Iraq is that in the very near term it is likely to weaken the United States. And weaken our mission — our stated mission — of trying to help spread democracy throughout the Middle East.

So the problem that the Bush administration has set up for itself is they’ve set a very, very high bar in Iraq. That is, the establishment of a stable, liberal democracy in Iraq. And they expect that to extend the rest of the region. And my fear is they’re going to get exactly the opposite.

Continued unrest in Iraq and continued focus on the U.S. military presence in that country, not as a stabilizing force but as force for anger and resentment. And really a reflection that the Iraqi government is not truly independent and sovereign but is dependent on the United States for its survival.

SCHAFFLER: Eleana, how would you respond to that?

GORDON: I think there are valid points to that argument. But I think there are other forces also in play in Iraq that make it difficult to know where things will go. Yesterday, when the Iraqi Governing Council announced its own government, that was a pretty clear sign of independence. I think it was promising there were six cabinet ministers who were women out of 26. That’s unusual anywhere in the world, especially in the Middle East.

And there is an irony in the Middle East right now. When our media covers Iraq and Arab leaders talk about Iraq and say we need have elections, we need to have a legitimate government — it raises the questions where else are there election and when else are there legitimate governments in the Middle East? So the has been a certain debate and level of discussion unleashed in the Middle East thanks to Iraq. But it could go either way. Because there is such a focus on it and we have put such high expectations on it.

SCHAFFLER: Chris, back to you. It’s interesting when we talk about democracy, and the Middle East as a whole — we’re talking about some very different countries, very different economic and political states. Are we at this point perhaps reaching too far? And should we focus in a little bit greater, rather than look at the Middle East in the big picture?

PREBLE: I think we need realistic expectations about what the United States or any other third party — even the United Nations itself, you know, a body of other countries — can do to impose or lead to democracy in another country. The reality is that democracy has to grow up from the inside. And the least effective mechanism for making that happen is military force. Even is its military force under a U.N. blue helmet.

I will say the rest the world can help the process of democratization in the Middle East by liberalizing trade and by economic development. Most of that should come from private actors, not from government.

SCHAFFLER: Eleana, that’s an interesting point. Sometimes we see a lot of changes, when we change on the economic front. Is that perhaps a realistic approach?

GORDON: It should definitely be part of it. Because the crisis in the Middle East is an economic one, from their perspective. It’s the high unemployment. That is what is pushing pressure on Arab leaders, and forcing them to move where they may not move otherwise. But I don’t know the private actors alone can do it. You do need legislative changes in Egypt or in these various governments enabling private enterprise.

And the Arab leaders tend not to listen until something is brought up at the presidential level. It’s when President Bush brings things up that they start to pay attention. So I think there’s a combined effort. But certainly it should be a — private enterprise has it be a part of that. Free markets has to be a part of this. That will force liberalization at all levels.

SCHAFFLER: Eleana Gordon, and Chris Preble, we have to end our discussion there. Thanks so much for joining me. A very interesting discussion, appreciate your time.