Iran believes Gaza war will ‘shape new world order’

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi said the war in Gaza will lead to a “transformation in the unjust order that rules the world.” He made the claims at a gathering on Monday, according to Iran’s pro-government Fars News. Iran’s president appears to believe that the war in Gaza will accelerate various processes in the global order. He said that after the war, the new world order will be “very close and achievable.”

In Iran’s view, the war in Gaza is part of a larger process. It could be seen as a precursor to a major global conflict.

Battlegrounds are not the only arenas in which this war unfolds. It may include other types of struggles, such as Iran joining the BRICS and the SCO, two economic groups that are linked to China or Russia and which Iran wants to be part of in order to balance the Western-led economies such as the G7.

Raisi’s statement matters. It shows how Iran is thinking about October 7 and its long-term plans. Iran sees the fighting in Gaza as a benefit. It also sees the suffering of Gazans as a benefit. What that means is that Iran believes it can use the suffering in Gaza to take advantage of the war and exploit it for its own interests. Iran’s president also “described Palestine as the most important issue in the Muslim world and stressed that the resistance by the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip will lead to changes in the status quo in the world,” Fars News said.

Why Raisi’s statements matter

His comments show the Janus face of Iran’s talking points. On the one hand, it claims to back the Palestinians. But it also wants to exploit them as part of its war on the West and on Israel. Iran also wants to use the war to diminish US influence in the region. Iran is also collaborating with Russia, providing Moscow with drones for use in Ukraine. Russia also sees the war in Ukraine as part of a war on the US-led world order. China is taking advantage of the Ukraine war and the October 7 war.

It’s important to listen to Raisi’s words because it isn’t that often that Iran openly says how it will exploit this war to reshape the region and the world. Iran has long-term plans. As such, Iran doesn’t care much about the tactics in Gaza or a ceasefire; it cares more about the grand strategy. It is happy to see the war go on and on. 

Seth Frantzman is the author of Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machine, Artificial Intelligence and the Battle for the Future (Bombardier 2021) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.