Iran’s far reaching influence: Are the Houthis getting leverage via attacks?

The Iranian-backed Houthis appear to be increasing their influence through their continued attacks on ships in the Red Sea. This is because they have not been deterred, and their attacks have become increasingly deadly and serious. The Houthis began attacks in October, first targeting Israel and then targeting ships. They have increased the range of the attacks and expanded the number of ships they threaten. The US and allies such as the UK have responded with airstrikes. However, the Houthis continue to attack.

Last week, Iran, Russia, and China began a joint naval drill. This may influence the Houthis because Iran backs them and has refrained from attacking Iranian and Chinese vessels. The Houthis are thus part of a broader global shift in which Iran, Russia, and China work together and seek to reduce US power. The three countries also benefit from the wars in Gaza and Ukraine that Russia launched in 2022.

On March 16, between 7:50 a.m. and 8:15 a.m. (Sanaa time), US Central Command says that  “Iranian-backed Houthis launched two unmanned Aerial vehicles (UAV) from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen toward the Red Sea. United States Central Command (CENTCOM) forces successfully engaged and destroyed one UAV, and the other is presumed to have crashed into the Red Sea. There were no reports of damage or injuries from ships in the vicinity.”

There were more attacks in the evening. The US spotted unmanned surface vessels, or naval drones, and destroyed them. “It was determined these weapons presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and US Navy ships in the region. These actions are taken to protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for US Navy and merchant vessels.”

Iran’s secret talks and Houthi connections

New reports claim Iran held secret indirect talks with the US in Oman. The US wants Iran to reduce the Houthi attacks. Iran wants a ceasefire in Gaza in order to save Hamas. This would make it appear the Houthi threats have succeeded by creating a new front. Now, if Iran agrees to reduce the Houthi attacks, it gets a quid-pro-quo. This is a win for Iran and the Houthis.

Iran can then operationalize them again when it wants to wring concessions. Another report says the Houthis met with Palestinian terrorist groups, including Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the PFLP. The Houthis have said in the past that they already had a “joint operations” room in Yemen back in late October. Therefore, this coordination is not entirely new, but the reports about it show how the Houthis have regional pretensions for power.

Al-Ain media in the UAE reported over the weekend about the US desire to stop arms smuggling to Yemen. The smuggling fuels the Houthis war. Smuggling comes from Iranian ports, such as Bandar Jask. The focus of Al-Ain media shows how this is an important issue.

Another report over the weekend also suggests Iran is using European ports to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah. While this isn’t directly related to the Houthis, it is related to oceangoing vessels and cargo. It is part of the broader Iranian naval strategy that is linked to backing the Houthis, smuggling to the Houthis, and the naval drill with Russia and China. All of this gives the Houthis more leverage after five months of war in Gaza. 

Seth Frantzman is the author of Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machine, Artificial Intelligence and the Battle for the Future (Bombardier 2021) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.