Analysis of the IAEA’s Iran NPT Safeguards Report – February 2024

Excerpt

For the first time, the latest quarterly International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards report on Iran’s compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) draws a direct line between Iran’s non-compliance with its comprehensive safeguards agreement (CSA) and concern about Iran’s current ability to make nuclear weapons. A former high-level Iranian official recently made comments about the regime’s ability to make nuclear weapons. The IAEA writes, “Public statements made in Iran regarding its technical capabilities to produce nuclear weapons only increase the Director General’s concerns about the correctness and completeness of Iran’s safeguards declarations.”

The report emphasizes Iran’s lack of complete nuclear declarations, as required by its safeguards agreement. In particular, the IAEA stated that it had not changed its assessment of the undeclared nuclear material and/or activities at four sites – Lavisan-Shian, Varamin, Marivan, and Turquzabad. While inspectors are still seeking Iran’s clarification of activities at Varamin and Turquzabad – in essence continuing to provide Iran the option of telling the truth – the report highlights Iran’s complete lack of cooperation. With Iran’s refusal to cooperate, the IAEA will likely finalize its investigation of these two sites in the same way as it did with the other two – namely, stating that Iran had undeclared nuclear materials and/or carried out nuclear weapons-related activities at the sites.

Concluding that a declaration is incomplete means Iran has violated its safeguards agreement. In its next report, the IAEA should take the next step and directly indicate that Iran is in violation of its CSA, to signal that this issue needs urgent consideration by the Board of Governors, in addition to the issues that the IAEA still considers outstanding.