Analysis of IAEA Iran Verification and Monitoring Report — February 2024

Excerpt

This report summarizes and assesses information in the International Atomic Energy
Agency’s (IAEA’s) quarterly report, dated February 26, 2024, Verification and monitoring in
the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231
(2015), including Iran’s compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Findings

• Iran is able to produce more weapon-grade uranium (WGU) and at a faster rate since the IAEA’s last report in November 2023 due to increased stocks of enriched uranium and increased uranium enrichment capacity.
• Iran’s stocks of enriched uranium and its centrifuge capacity combined are sufficient to make enough WGU, taken as 25 kilograms (kg) of WGU, for seven nuclear weapons in one month, nine in two months, eleven in three months, 12-13 in four months, and 13 in five months.
• With Iran’s growing enrichment experience and using only a portion of its stock of 60 percent highly enriched uranium (HEU), Iran could produce its first quantity of 25 kg of WGU in as little as seven days. The short timeframe results from a scenario in which Iran dedicates four advanced centrifuge cascades to the task and uses a higher tails assay, causing faster production of WGU but requiring more 60 percent feed to do so. This breakout could be difficult for the IAEA to detect promptly, if Iran delayed inspectors’ access.