Do US airdrops in Rafah affect Israel’s potential Gaza operation?

The US carried out its first airdrop of humanitarian aid to Gaza over the weekend. It dropped more than 30,000 meals to Gaza in cooperation with the Jordanian Air Force. 

US President Joe Biden has backed this in the wake of a stampede near food trucks that killed more than 100 people last Thursday. The airdrops follow the increasing use of airdrops by Jordan and several other countries.

However, the US involvement may put a spotlight on Israel’s next steps in Gaza.

Because the humanitarian situation in northern Gaza requires airdrops, it will leave questions about how any potential Rafah operation might play out. In short, the US involvement in Gaza is increasing, and this can have major ramifications. It could put more pressure on Israel and lead to more scrutiny over future operations.

The decision by the US to conduct an airdrop is an important development in the war in Gaza. The US has supported Israel’s campaign against Hamas in the wake of the Hamas attack on October 7. However, this has come with some caveats.

While the White House has acted to block UN resolutions condemning Israel or calling for a ceasefire, Israel has been urged to conduct a less intense campaign in Gaza since early December. The result is a relatively slow campaign in southern Gaza that has led to most of the civilian population fleeing to Rafah near the border with Egypt. This is also where the last major Hamas bastion is, and Hamas uses the civilians as human shields.

Providing aid doesn’t necessarily mean Gazans have access to it

Now, a new factor has entered the complexities of Gaza. With an estimated 300,000 Gazans in northern Gaza, it has become difficult for them to access humanitarian aid. This may be due to many factors. Hamas has an interest in slowing down aid because it wants suffering to lead to a ceasefire.

On the other hand, this could also be due to bad planning on the part of all those involved in Gaza. International organizations often rely on Hamas police to escort or control aid. This creates a symbiotic mafia-like connection between Hamas and many NGOs.

The humanitarian situation in northern Gaza has now reached a crisis point. The disaster that unfolded with the stampede around the truck is an example of this. Now, the US feels obligated to act. This could lead to the US becoming more systematically involved in Gaza. With this could come dependence on US aid and also more complexities for Israel in Gaza.

The airdrops in Gaza are coming from a number of countries, and the UK is also supporting them with material. Jordan is leading the effort. In essence Israel has outsources this part of the conflict to these countries, including France and Egypt.

This is due to the way the war has been conducted. Israel didn’t want to set up IDF camps for civilians or manage the civilian aspect of Gaza with a special authority. The government also didn’t want the Palestinian Authority controlling things. That has left a power vacuum. Hamas likes the power vacuum and is trying to return to northern Gaza. It also thrives on the suffering by holding it up as an example of why it is a necessary de facto ruler of Gaza.

Some have compared the Gaza war to the war against ISIS, but when the war on ISIS was conducted, the civilians were separated from ISIS and allowed to flee to IDP camps. There has been no orderly attempt to do that in Gaza.

This leaves the airdrops as an example of the difficulties that Israel will face going forward in Gaza. Any desire by Israel to ask people in Rafah to move will be met with questions about what happened in the north.

If northern Gaza became a chaos that requires airdrops and people are stampeding trucks due to hunger, many questions will be asked about what happens if a million people have to leave Rafah.

In addition, it means the US could be called upon more and more to be involved in Gaza, potentially setting up a situation with the US and Israel are at odds over the next steps to be taken there.

Seth Frantzman is the author of Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machine, Artificial Intelligence and the Battle for the Future (Bombardier 2021) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.