China benefits more from U.S. trade

The excellent Feb. 22 editorial, “Mr. Xi is tanking China’s economy. That’s bad for the U.S.,” outlined the threats to the Chinese economy, but I disagree that a failing Chinese economy represents an existential threat to the United States and its allies.

Our economies are deeply integrated, but, in most cases, we have alternatives. China is our third-largest export market, as the editorial pointed out, but a distant third [ustr.gov] — buying less than half as much as either Canada or Mexico. China exports a lot of goods to the United States, but those exports are also a double-edged sword, impeding the development of domestic and allied capacity to support critical industries.

The editorial highlighted that U.S. farmers sell crops to China, but that is more of a vulnerability for China than for us. With 20 percent of the world’s population but only 9 percent of the arable land and 6 percent of the freshwater, China would struggle to feed itself [newsweek.com] in the event of a disastrous invasion of Taiwan. When it comes to preventing war, that point of leverage is strongly in our favor — a good thing for Taiwan and for the world.

What the editorial got right is that the dire economic situation is a direct consequence of China’s state-control over people, companies and capital. For China to “sharply adjust course,” as the editorial encouraged, everyday Chinese citizens, bearing the brunt of the economic implosion, will need to force the hand of the Chinese Communist Party. Unfortunately, it will take more economic pain before that occurs.

Elaine Dezenski is senior director and head of the Center on Economic and Financial Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.