‘The month of Rafah’: Will Israel’s talk lead to defeating Hamas in Gaza?

The month of February 2024 should be remembered as the month of “Rafah,” considering all the talk and focus on the southern Gaza City that has gone on so far.

This area along the Egyptian border that Hamas continues to control after four months of an intense Israeli ground offensive has been important to Hamas for decades. The terrorist group used it for smuggling and to control the border so that humanitarian aid and international groups would have to partner with Hamas to enter Gaza.

Rafah thus enjoys particular importance for Hamas. While Gaza City and Khan Yunis were also important – as was control over the various camps in Gaza, such as Shati, Jabalya, Nuseirat, and Shejaia – Rafah is the lifeline.

The control is so important that Hamas has been redirecting the attention of international organizations and media to the city so Hamas could use it as a human shield. There are at least four terrorist battalions in Rafah – that’s thousands of men. Yet much of the coverage of Rafah – like of Gaza in general – doesn’t pay enough attention to the armed Hamas men who control the city, overshadowed by the human tragedy and destruction.

The question that remains now is whether all the talk about a Rafah operation is helpful and whether it will lead to results.

The tone of discussion about Rafah is very different today than in other areas in Gaza. For instance, when Israel went into northern Gaza in late October, it surprised Hamas by sending an entire division across the enclave to cut off Gaza City from southern Gaza. The decision to go into Khan Yunis in early December was also rapid and surprising for Hamas.

Rafah is different.

Israeli officials and leaders have all discussed it over the last month. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on February 7 that Israeli forces will “soon go into Rafah, Hamas’s last bastion. They will do so, as they have done up to now, by providing the civilian population safe passage to safe zones, and they’ll do so despite Hamas’s evil attempts to stop the civilians from leaving at gunpoint.

“Total victory over Hamas will not take years. It will take months.”

Two days later, The New York Times noted that Netanyahu had ordered a military evacuation plan for Rafah.

What is Israel’s plan for Rafah?

The prime minister reiterated the focus on Rafah on February 9, saying, “It is impossible to achieve the goal of the war of eliminating Hamas by leaving four Hamas battalions in Rafah. On the contrary, it is clear that intense activity in Rafah requires that civilians evacuate the areas of combat.” He then said on February 16, “We are thoroughly planning future operations in Rafah, which is a significant Hamas stronghold.”

He added that “whoever wants to prevent us from operating in Rafah is telling us, in effect, to lose the war. I will not allow this. The diplomatic campaign that I am leading, along with my colleagues, has allowed us unprecedented freedom of military action for five months, which has not happened in Israel’s wars.”

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has also focused on Rafah. On February 18, he met with IDF Southern Command, and his office later said that Gallant “was presented with operational plans for the fight against Hamas battalions in central Gaza and the Rafah area.” He made several remarks, including that “Hamas is left with forces in the central area of Gaza and the Rafah brigade.

“The only thing required for Hamas’s total collapse as a military system is a decision by the IDF. There is no one here to come to their aid – no Iranians and no international assistance.” He also said on Friday that “we are thoroughly planning future operations in Rafah, which is a significant Hamas stronghold… There were 24 regional battalions in Gaza – we have dismantled 18 of them. Now, Rafah is the next Hamas center of gravity.”

Benny Gantz, a member of the war cabinet, also said on February 19, “The world must know, and Hamas leaders must know: If by Ramadan our hostages are not home, the fighting will continue to the Rafah area.”

The statements about Rafah have become a kind of mantra of message discipline among Israel’s leadership, perfectly fine for preparing Israelis for the next steps in Gaza and also presenting a unified face to the world as pressure builds on Israel for a ceasefire.

There is no doubt about that pressure-gathering strength. The comments by Brazil’s leader, the Algerian proposal at the UN, and Qatar’s increasing criticism are all elements of this story. Reports have said the US is concerned about a Rafah operation as well.

What is the lesson for Hamas? Does it feel protected in Rafah? Is it afraid of Israel’s determination and threats to move forward? Or does Hamas think that the increased talk is evidence of a climb-down? Will the Ramadan timetable work? There will be little surprise if and when Israel does decide to proceed. Hamas will have plenty of time to decide what to do.

It has often had time during this war to move hostages and plot its next steps. This is because Israel has had to find ways to evacuate civilians before operations in most areas, meaning Hamas can decide whether to leave with the civilians, disguised among them and using them as human shields, or it can decide to stay and fight. With so much talk about Rafah, the only Hamas response so far has been to try to hide behind the civilians sheltering there.

Seth Frantzman is the author of Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machine, Artificial Intelligence and the Battle for the Future (Bombardier 2021) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.