April 20, 2024 | The Wall Street Journal
Iran’s Nuclear Calculus Has Now Become More Dangerous
Supreme Leader Khamenei must wonder if the Islamic Republic’s situation would be better if it had already tested a nuclear weapon. The West shouldn’t underestimate the ailing ayatollah’s need for a glorious legacy.
April 20, 2024 | The Wall Street Journal
Iran’s Nuclear Calculus Has Now Become More Dangerous
Supreme Leader Khamenei must wonder if the Islamic Republic’s situation would be better if it had already tested a nuclear weapon. The West shouldn’t underestimate the ailing ayatollah’s need for a glorious legacy.
Excerpt
The rising tensions between Iran and Israel have provoked understandable foreboding. On April 1, an Israeli airstrike killed a senior Iranian commander in Damascus. Last weekend, Iran responded by launching more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel, which in turn prompted Israel to strike targets in the Iranian city of Isfahan on Thursday night. As the two historic antagonists climb the tiger’s back, the Biden administration is hardly alone in fearing a regional conflagration.
The Islamic Republic seeks revenge for its dead, while Israel needs to restore deterrence, badly damaged by Hamas’s Oct. 7 assault. If Israel fails to reestablish sufficient deterrence, it must prepare for a future filled with air-raid warnings and Israelis continuously in bomb shelters.
Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former Iranian-targets officer at the Central Intelligence Agency, is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.