Washington should brace for new Polish preferences in arms suppliers

Excerpt

The recent ouster of Poland’s government at the ballot box signals some significant potential changes to the security posture of NATO’s strongest ally in Eastern Europe. Under the next Polish government, U.S. defense firms may find tougher competition from European industry for big-ticket arms purchases by Warsaw. The total size of Polish defense spending may be smaller. Washington should take note and respond.

Poland’s Law and Justice, the leading party within the country’s previous ruling coalition, won the most seats of any single party in the Oct. 15 election — but not enough to hang onto power. In claiming victory, opposition leader and former Polish President Donald Tusk celebrated his party’s success. “Never in my life have I been so happy about seemingly taking second place,” he said.

Tusk’s excitement might be short lived. Without an outright majority in parliament, a future government under his centrist Civic Coalition party is likely to be weak and wobbly. Tusk will need the support of smaller leftist parties to form a government — and their interests will not always be aligned with his. Keeping these bedfellows within his political fold will almost certainly require the dispensation of large domestic spending programs, likely at the cost of Poland’s mighty defense budget, which is currently 3.9 percent of the country’s GDP. It may also require a reversion to Poland’s previous preference for “splitting the baby” on arms deals between the United States and European firms.

On the campaign trail, Tusk promised voters a return to pro-European Union policies. The last time that his party was in power it regularly divided major defense purchases between American firms and their EU competitors. The practice was intentional. Mega-deals with the United States, like the fielding of the Patriot air defense system, maintained a strong link with Washington. Other purchases from the EU allowed Warsaw to burnish its reputation as a “team player” in Brussels. While the outgoing government broke with this approach, Poland’s next government will likely return to it. As the former president of the European Council, Tusk might even have a greater affinity for the EU than before.

Peter Doran is Senior Adjunct Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.