Russia’s Influence in the Balkans

Excerpt

As the war in Ukraine continues, Russia, with the help of its ally Serbia, is provoking chaos in the Balkans to distract the West. The Kremlin’s goal is to exacerbate the existing perilous ethnic tensions in the region into violence and thus to undermine NATO’s regional peacekeeping attempts and to reassert Russia’s dominance in the region. The ultimate question arises as to why Russia and Serbia would benefit from the crisis in the Balkans.

Vladimir Putin does not need to roll out tanks and jets in the Balkans, as he is successfully using hybrid warfare to undermine the West. While Brussels and Washington have forgotten the Cold War, the Russian autocrat has not. Russia’s goal in the Balkans is to position itself as the region’s only reliable conflict negotiator. The game plan accomplishes two goals: strengthening Moscow’s standing in the region, and giving Putin leverage over Western powers that would lead to broad concessions and thus keep conflict in the region from escalating. Although Russia does not have a “grand strategy” for the Western Balkans, the region is part of Putin’s game, whereby Moscow has been exploiting the existing domestic vulnerabilities in Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan by weaponizing secessionist movements.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić’s ultimate goal is to remain in power for as long as possible. By undermining pro-Western opposition in Serbia and strengthening far-right nationalists, Vučić has positioned himself as a moderate deal broker and a source of stability in the region. Vučić also benefits from Russian malign influence by escalating and then deescalating and using crises as a bargaining chip with the West.

Ivana Stradner is a Research Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow her on X @ivanastradner. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.