‘Minsk 2.0’ Provides Shaky Ukraine Ceasefire

After 16 hours of negotiations in the Belarusian capital, the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany ironed out a shaky short-term solution to the Ukraine crisis. The agreement was announced at three separate news conferences, suggesting the deal’s durability and longevity may be in doubt.

Central elements of the agreement include the creation of a demilitarized security zone 30-90 miles wide, a prisoner exchange, and removal of foreign weapons, units, equipment and mercenaries – all to be overseen by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.

Some of the parameters will be easier to implement than others. For instance, the provision which paves the way for the restoration of the banking system in eastern Ukraine may be more immediately feasible than changing the Ukrainian constitution to allow for Kiev’s full control of its own borders.

The “Minsk 2.0” ceasefire agreement, however, falls short of a comprehensive peace plan which addresses big strategic issues like Ukraine’s relations with the European Union and NATO. Importantly, it does not go into effect until after midnight on Sunday. Until then, we may see an escalation in fighting as both sides look to better position themselves for future battles. Moreover, although these talks squarely dealt with the war in eastern Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has thus far succeeded in turning attention away from Moscow’s annexation of Crimea.

While the new agreement may save lives, the duration of this ceasefire may not be much longer than its predecessor. Signed in September 2014, it subsequently unraveled as fighting for the Donetsk International Airport intensified. Without full implementation of the agreement as a stepping stone to a comprehensive deal, it is only a matter of time until this agreement fails as well.

In the meantime, the new agreement makes stronger Western financial action or military support less likely, while allowing Putin to continue cementing his regional gains.

Boris Zilberman is deputy director of congressional relations at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where he is also a Russia analyst.