To Pressure Iran, Obama Should Work on Europe — Not Russia and China

The Obama administration is squandering valuable time and resources in making extended overtures to Russia and China to join the West’s crackdown on Iran’s illegal atomic program. Secretary of State Clinton should instead turn to Europe – where leading economic powerhouses such as Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom are, after years of drowsiness, amenable to punishing Iran.

Combined pressure from U.S. and European leaders is enough to ratchet up pressure on Tehran. If together they impose tough sanctions, it will be more effective than weakened measures agreed to simply in order to win the cooperation of China and Russia.

Clinton has over the past year engaged in an elaborate tango dance to secure the votes of Russia and China for a fourth round of UN Security Council sanctions against Iran. Yet Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu reiterated China’s longstanding position on Monday that “pressure and sanctions cannot fundamentally solve” the Iranian nuclear crisis.

No wonder: Oil-starved China is highly dependent on the Islamic Republic and imports almost 12% of its energy needs from Iran. To compound China’s addiction to Iranian oil, the China National Petroleum Corp. sealed a $4.7 billion contract last year to develop Iran’s South Pars gas field.

There is no pressing incentive for Russia to discipline Iran for Tehran’s brazen violations of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, either, due to flourishing Iranian-Russian trade relations. Russia is working overtime to ensure that the Bushehr nuclear power plant in that Iranian southern port city is operational this coming summer. Intelligence experts view Bushehr as an additional gateway to advancing Iran’s drive to attain atomic weapons. The Russians contracted with the Iranians to rebuild Bushehr for a total of $800 million. Instead of sending the mullah regime a harsh rebuke that it will not tolerate Iran’s defiance, the Russians snubbed Clinton during her visit last month and declared that their engineers will proceed with jump-starting Bushehr.

All of this helps to explain why China and Russia are not responsible and reliable partners of the West – and are not worth being chased through the diplomatic hallways. Even if the Obama administration wins over the Chinese and Russians for a new round of sanctions, the quid pro quo will entail a fluffy set of penalties that will not influence a change in Iran’s recalcitrant behavior.

In sharp contrast to the Russians and Chinese, Europe is moderately awake and willing to inflict economic pain on the Iranians. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose country remains Iran’s No. 1 European trading partner, announced this year her support for a “coalition of the willing” – independent of UN Security Council sanctions – to clamp down on Tehran. While Merkel’s administration and the German parliament previously rejected American-style unilateral sanctions legislation to restrict the flourishing German-Iranian economic relationship, Merkel’s initiative could well bring about a sea change.

The efficacy of Merkel’s proposal should not be underestimated. According to the former head of the German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce in Tehran, Michael Tockuss, “The Iranians are totally dependent on German spare parts and suppliers.” Leading German enterprises, such as the energy engineering company Linde, are active in Iran, and the Iranians are averse to relying on Chinese and Russian technology for infrastructure because European goods cannot be substituted due to their high quality.

If the motor of Europe’s economy – Germany – is prepared to contribute to escalate the pace of pressure on Iran, the preconditions for solidifying a robust coalition of Europeans will be in place.

Italy – the second largest European Union trade partner of Iran – announced in early February that it will retreat from investments in critical economic sectors in Iran. French President Nicolas Sarkozy has advocated for “all necessary efforts to make sure Europe as a whole engaged in the sanctions regime.” His British counterpart, Prime Minister Gordon Brown, has also sought to isolate Iran where it is most vulnerable, namely, in its energy sector. And just as the United Kingdom and France were ahead of the security curve in Europe, their countries’ oil and gas giants (Royal Dutch Shell and British Petroleum) have largely pulled the plug on their operations in Iran.

The European Union’s annual total trade relationship with Iran amounted to $35 billion in 2008. If the Obama administration genuinely seeks to force Iran to suspend its drive to develop nuclear warheads, it should walk away from Russia and China and turn to Europe as the decisive pressure point. Otherwise, we miss an amazing opportunity to capitalize on the continent’s surprising enthusiasm for robust sanctions.

Weinthal is a journalist based in Berlin and currently a fellow at the Iran Energy Project at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.