Iraqi Security Forces Five Year Plan: An updated projection

 In August 2007, the Projected Iraqi Security Forces Five Year Plan (end-2012), a rough estimate of the end-state for Iraqi forces, was published. Additional information and details have since become available to clarify Iraqi Security Force (ISF) development and probable plans, however, the same rule applies: What follows is heavy on speculation, estimation, and extrapolations. If sixty percent proves accurate, the estimate will be considered good. Many of the decisions that affect what is being projected here have not been made yet.

Changes from previous factors and basic assumptions are underlined in this portion and should be kept in mind when reviewing this update:
1. This is an estimate of the planned state of the main forces by the end of 2012.
2. The principal role of the Iraqi Army (IA) is external security. Internal security is a secondary role for IA.
3. The primary and secondary countries posing an external threat are Iran and Syria.
4. The Iraqi Ground Forces Command (IGFC) sectors are not the basis for the Iraqi Army Corps. There are to be four active corps.
5. Iraqi Special Operations Force (ISOF) is considered a five-brigade strategic reserve with brigades assigned as needed.
6. The Iraqi Army is projected to grow to 20 divisions (including ISOF as a division equivalent).
7. The mechanization of the heavy components of the Iraqi Army and the artillery will probably be incomplete.
8. An Iraqi Army reserve probably will be based on existing Ministry of Interior paramilitary formations.
9. The principal forces for internal security belong to the Ministry of Interior (MoI).
10. The Iraqi National Police (INP) is currently inadequate for the planned primary internal security role.
11. The Iraqi National Police is expanding to a minimum of four or five divisions. In addition to police training, it is trained and operates as light infantry in wartime.
12. The Department of Border Enforcement (DBE) requires further expansion in logistics and may get artillery.
13. Kurdish Regional Guards (KRG) is being re-designated as army and police.
14. The KRG is retaining one de facto active IA (V) corps of three divisions and transferring two other divisions to the other IA active corps.
15. The Iraqi Air Force has a long-term plan for 38 squadrons in 10 years. It will be an army centric force.
16. The Operational Commands are not the basis of the four active corps, but will be used as joint corps/division headquarters for mobilization.
17. Provisional Emergency Response Units (ERU) and Brigades (ERB) would be mobilized as infantry in an emergency, and probably are planned to be incorporated into the INP/DBE.

Iraqi Special Operations Forces Command (ISOF): ISOF is forming a 2nd Brigade composed of the four independent regional battalions and a new Garrison Support Unit. These battalions are also getting a regional counter-terrorism center (RCTC) and a support detachment from the new forming GSU. They probably will expand to a total of five brigades, with each composed of a brigade special troops battalion (BSTB) formed from expanding the RCTC, two commando or counter-terrorism battalions, a Mi-17 equipped helicopter squadron, and a brigade support battalion (BSB) formed from expanding the GSU detachments. This is the same organization that the Baghdad-based 1st ISOF Brigade is transitioning to when the 15th Special Operations Squadron completes training in early 2009. ISOF will be under the Counter-Terrorism Bureau in peacetime.

Iraqi Air Force (IZAF): This is still the least clear component in the ISF. One key detail that was mentioned in December's 9010 Quarterly Report to Congress is that there is a long-term plan for 38 squadrons. These squadrons would not be built by the end of 2012. They are probably planned for the end of 2018 timeframe. Very few details have been released, so what follows is mostly best guesses (SWAG).

Currently building, operational, and announced planned is 10 squadrons. There are seven IZAF squadrons built or building at this time, with 10 planned by the end of 2008. Most of them are helicopter, training, and reconnaissance/utility composite squadrons. The three forming by the end of 2008 are a training squadron and two utility/reconnaissance squadrons. Of note, the Mi17 has been chosen as primary helicopter for the IZAF since they have 900 pilots and engineers with experience in this helicopter – enough for 10 squadrons of 22 Mi17 each.

• Fixed wing (6):

    • 23rd Transport Squadron with three C130s and planning to acquire six more. 40 C130s were mentioned as planned last fall.
    • 3rd Utility/Reconnaissance Squadron with CH2000, Cessna Caravan ISR, King Air 350ISR and King Air transports. Expect to get a light attack capability in 2009-10.
    • 70th Utility/Reconnaissance Squadron with CH2000, Cessna Caravan ISR, King Air 350ISR and King Air transports. Expect to get a light attack capability in 2009-10.
    • ??? Utility/Reconnaissance Squadron planned. Expect to get a light attack capability in 2009-10.
    • ??? Utility/Reconnaissance Squadron planned. Expect to get a light attack capability in 2009-10.
    • 12th Training Squadron (Fixed Wing) with Cessna 172 basic trainers.

• Rotary wing (4):

    • 2nd Utility Squadron with UH-1 Hueys. Probably will expand and be reassigned to Navy/Marine support.
    • 4th Transport Squadron with Mi17s. Probably will be assigned to direct support of 6th Division in the future.
    • 15th Special Operations Squadron to receive Special Ops version of Mi17 in 2009. Training with 4th Sq now. Assigned direct support to ISOF.
    • ??? Training Squadron (Rotary) with Jet Rangers. Doubling the number of helicopters this year.

Probably planned by the end of 2012 is approximately 25 squadrons. Most of the assets gained will be army support and predominately Mi17s because of the availability of aircrews that require only refresher training. The following includes the above squadrons.

• Fixed wing (6-10):

    • One or two C130-equipped Transport Squadrons. As the US upgrades to C130J, the older airframes will become available.
    • Four Composite Squadrons providing utility transport, reconnaissance, and light attack capabilities.
    • One Training Squadron.
    • Zero-three jet trainer/light attack aircraft are possible but, probably planned for later.

• Rotary wing (11-20):

    • One Utility Helicopter Squadron for maritime support.
    • Four Mi17 equipped Squadrons assigned as direct support, one per brigade to 6th Airmobile Division.
    • Five Mi17 equipped Special Operations Squadrons assigned as direct support, one per brigade to ISOF.
    • Zero-nine Composite Helicopter Squadrons with transport (Mi17), scout, and attack helicopters. Assigned as corps' support. These may be organized as three squadrons of each type for peacetime operations.
    • One Training Squadron.

Possibly planned by the end of 2018 are 38 Squadrons but, the composition is more nebulous the farther out you project. Many of these squadrons may be under strength because of the cost and delivery time of aircraft.

• Fixed wing (18):

    • Two C130-equipped Transport Squadrons.
    • Four Composite Squadrons providing utility transport, reconnaissance, and light attack capabilities.
    • Three jet trainer/light attack aircraft.
    • Eight Fighter Squadrons.
    • One Training Squadron.

• Rotary wing (20):

    • One Utility Helicopter Squadron for maritime support.
    • Four Mi17 equipped Transport Squadrons assigned as direct support, one per brigade to 6th Airmobile Division.
    • Five Mi17 equipped Special Operations Squadrons assigned as direct support, one per brigade to ISOF.
    • Nine Composite Helicopter Squadrons with transport (Mi17), scout, and attack helicopters. Assigned as corps' support.
    • One Training Squadron.

Iraqi Navy and Marines: The only significant change to this projection from the previous is that delivery of the new vessels has been delayed six months to a year and the Iraqi Marines have added a 2nd Battalion assigned to Umm Qasr port security. The Iraqi Marines are still likely to become a brigade by the end of 2012.

Iraqi Ground Forces Command: The principal role of the IGFC is external security and the components for that role are to be added starting 2009. The IGFC is currently announced at four corps, 10 IA divisions (growing to 14), and five Kurdish divisions plus independent brigades. Each division is to have four line brigades. Two of the Kurdish divisions are to be assigned to the IGFC's four corps while the remaining three form the de facto fifth active corps – the Kurdish Regional Guards (KRG) Corps. The old IGFC sectors are not the basis of organization. The operational commands are not the basis for these army corps. The following corps designations and subordinations are notional – that is, one way to imagine how the IGFC units could be organized and named.

I (Strike) Corps. Acts as national strategic reserve.
• • Presidential (Armored Cavalry) Brigade – central Baghdad
• 6th Commando Division – southern Baghdad
• 9th Armored Division – northern Baghdad
• 11th Armored Division – eastern Baghdad
• 15th Airborne Division – western Baghdad

II (Central) Corps. Threat focus is the central Iranian border.
• • ? Armored Cavalry Brigade – Balad
• 4th Mechanized Division – Kirkuk
• 5th Mechanized Division – Diyala
• 12th Motorized Division – Salahadin
• ? (KRG) Mountain Division – Sulmaniyah

III (Southern) Corps. Threat focus is the southern Iranian border.
• • ? Armored Cavalry Brigade – Karbala
• 1st Mechanized Division – east Anbar/Karbala
• 8th Motorized Division – Wassit/Babil/Qadisayah/Najaf
• 10th Motorized Division – Maysan/DhiQar/Muthanna
• 14th Mechanized Division – Basrah

IV (Western) Corps. Threat focus is the Syrian border with a secondary role as a strategic reserve element.
• • ? Armored Cavalry Brigade – Ninawa
• 2nd Mechanized Division – eastern Ninawa
• 3rd Mechanized Division – western Ninawa
• 7th Mechanized Division – western Anbar
• ? (KRG) Mountain Division – Dohuk

Kurdish Regional Guards (Northern) Corps. Threat focus is the northern Iranian border.
• ? (KRG) Mountain Division – Irbil
• ? (KRG) Mountain Division – Dohuk
• ? (KRG) Mountain Division – Sulmaniyah

IA Corps: Each corps is likely to consist of a support brigade, three to four divisions, one armored cavalry brigade, one or more artillery brigades, one ISOF or 6th Division airmobile brigade (attached), a composite aviation squadron (attached), and an engineering brigade/regiment. Additional elements may be assigned to active corps for mobilization corps.

IA Divisions: Division troops consist of a special troops battalion (headquarters), probably a reconnaissance battalion, and a Base Defense Unit (battalion).

    • Divisions will have a Location Command (Support Brigade) composed of a Brigade Special Troops Battalion (BSTB), a motor-transport regiment, a Base Support Unit (Support Battalion), and a maintenance battalion. The Division will also have one or two engineer battalions.
    • The Divisional Field Artillery Regiment will be composed of a Headquarters and six field artillery battalions (four attached to brigades). An air defense artillery battalion will probably be assigned to the artillery regiment.
    • Each Division will have four line brigades. Armored divisions will have three armored brigades and one mechanized brigade. Mechanized divisions will have four brigades — one armored, two mechanized, and one motorized. Infantry, motorized, and mountain divisions will have four type brigades. One brigade will be airmobile qualified.

IA Line Brigades: The IA line brigades will consist of a Brigade Special Troops Battalion, an attached artillery battalion, and three (four or five for independent brigades) line battalions. Armor brigades have two armor battalions and a mechanized battalion. Mechanized brigades have an armor battalion and two mechanized battalions. Motorized, infantry, and mountain brigades have three type battalions.

Iraqi National Police (INP): The current INP is three divisions. According to the Senior Deputy of the Ministry of Interior: ”  we are forming brigades in each a national police brigade in each province .” There are 18 Iraqi provinces but, four rate more than one brigade:

    • Baghdad rates a reinforced division due to population (6.6 million).
    • Basrah rates two brigades for its high population (2 million).
    • Mosul rates two brigades for its population (1.7 million).
    • Anbar rates two or three brigades because of its large geographical area.

Current plans for one support brigade are insufficient for support of this sized force, and an additional support brigade for each division will be required to support deployability. Each division will probably have a mechanized brigade and three-four motorized brigades. The expansion of the INP will probably be from redesignating and retraining most of the current 26-plus emergency response brigade equivalents. The INP is increasing to a five- to nine-division structure. It is possible that the smaller four operational commands represent future INP divisional headquarters since the INP is to take over internal security eventually. Using six INP divisions of five brigades each (including one mechanized brigade) plus the expansion of the INP Emergency Response Unit, a possible total of 31 brigades is arrived at. Notional future INP organization:

    • Division in Mosul with the mechanized brigade and a regular INP brigade plus a brigade each in Dohuk, Sulmaniyah, and Irbil.
    • 3rd INP Division with the mechanized brigade in Tikrit and a regular INP brigade each in Bayji, Samarra, Kirkuk, and Diyala.
    • Division in Baghdad (1st INP Division?) with a mechanized brigade, four regular INP brigades, plus an expanded Emergency Response Unit (brigade).
    • Division in Anbar (probably Provincial Security Force converted) with a mechanized brigade and three regular INP brigades plus a regular INP brigade in Karbala. (Pilgrimages will require regular deployments from Anbar to Karbala to reinforce. Anbar and Karbala already have security coordination ongoing.)
    • Division in Babil with the mechanized brigade and a regular INP brigade plus a brigade each in Wassit, Diwaniyah, and Najaf.
    • Division in Basrah with the mechanized brigade and a regular INP brigade plus a brigade each in Maysan, DhiQar, and Muthanna.

Department of Border Enforcement (DBE): The five DBE Regions will add support brigades and probably field artillery, but the artillery will be in-progress at best by the end of 2012. The line brigades will probably grow to four battalions each. Some of the current emergency response brigades will probably be retrained/re-designated as DBE. DBE structure indicates eight additional brigades planned (five division headquarters, but only 12 brigades current).

Wartime mobilization of combined forces: The original projection in August 2007 was based on the six sectors of the Iraqi Ground Forces Command becoming corps sectors because six was the minimum number of corps necessary for covering the Iranian border frontage. The estimate of 20 Divisions and 6-12 reserve divisions was calculated as the most that could be built by the end-2012. This projection has been changed since the original projection did not factor in Ministry of Interior (MoI) formations being used as a wartime emergency reserve. The four active IA corps (with the KRG Corps) should be looked at as wartime Army Groups of two or three corps each with three to five divisions to each corps, eight or nine divisions to the army group: A total of nine wartime corps in the Iraqi Security Forces.

The five active corps are additional to the operational commands (OC). These joint headquarters commands vary in size from division to corps and would be used as mobilization headquarters. The Anbar, Baghdad, Basrah, and Ninawa OCs are corps-level headquarters while the Samarra, Karbala, Diyala, and DhiQar OCs plus the Rusafa and Karkh Area Commands are divisional level headquarters. MoI's paramilitary elements combined with the Joint Operational Commands expand the combined Iraqi field force to approximately 36 division equivalents from the 20 active Iraqi Army divisions. The de facto IA wartime reserve is the five to nine INP Divisions, the three DBE Division equivalents with five Divisional HQs, and the five division equivalents of Emergency Response Units/Battalions (76+), which are already organized as Brigades and a Division (Anbar PSF) with the OCs filling in the current missing division and corps headquarters.

• 4 corps/15 divisions/65 brigades of Iraqi Army (including ISOF).
• 1 corps/05 divisions/20+ brigades of Kurdish Regional Guards (KRG).
• 0 corps/01 divisions/26+ brigades of known IP emergency response forces.
• 0 corps/04 divisions/20+ brigades of Iraqi National Police (INP).
• 0 corps/05 divisions/12 brigades of Department of Border Enforcement (DBE).
• 4 corps/06 divisions/00 brigades of Operational Command headquarters.
• 9 corps/36 divisions/143 brigades total

In wartime, the ISOF and 6th Division commando brigades would probably be assigned to the nine corps as corps reserve. The corps reserve would also get the independent mechanized and INP mechanized brigades as their armored cavalry (reconnaissance) brigades. The INP will probably expand the number of Light Mechanized Brigades to one per Division.

When it is announced, the artillery establishment will give away the total number of divisions/corps planned. Except for the DBE, the MoI has no requirement for field artillery so the IA will probably form extra regiments/brigades for round-out of the Iraqi Police Infantry Divisions.

This concludes my projection of the five-year plan of the ISF. Whether or not this estimation of planned forces is accurate, much of the following is still useful for analysis of the Iraqi Table of Organization and Equipment (TO/E). What follows is a working checklist and notes of current missing or deficient items in the IA TO/E:

Battalion:
_____Senior NCO Shortage. Again, only time and experience can correct this.
__/__Mortar Batteries. Battalions are in the process of receiving their mortar batteries.
__/__Heavy Weapons Sections. Battalions are still in the process of receiving heavy weapons.
__/__Motorization. Iraqi army is to be motorized by the end of 2009.

Brigade:
_____Senior NCO Shortage. Only time and experience can correct this.
__/__Brigade Combat Engineer/EOD elements. These are being trained but are a work in progress.
_____Field Artillery Battalions. IA has not formed or started training the brigades' indirect fire-support battalions. These are scheduled for 2009.
__/__Medical. Medical personnel are still in training.
__/__Communications. Equipment and qualified personnel shortages exist. Training is ongoing.
_____Brigade Support Battalions (BSB). As the brigades become fully motorized and gain their artillery battalions, they will need to add BSBs. Only the brigades of the 9th Division and ISOF have BSBs so far.

Division:
__/__Leadership.
_____Intelligence. An intelligence and reconnaissance company (scout company) is insufficient for both roles at division level. A dedicated military intelligence company is needed.
__/__Medical. Medical shortages in equipment, facilities and personnel. In progress.
_____Communications. Equipment and qualified personnel shortages exist.
_____Engineer Battalions. The division engineering regiments' components are partially formed. The training of engineers/EOD has been slow.
_____FA Regiments. The formation of the divisions' fires brigades (FA) has not started. These regiments are scheduled for 2009/10.
_____Division Reconnaissance Battalion. The divisions' special troops battalion has a scout company, but that is insufficient for division level and they are probably expanding the SOF/reconnaissance capability of the divisions.
_____Air Defense Artillery (ADA) Battalions. While there are reports of Iraqi MoD shopping for anti-aircraft missiles, no ADA battalions have been announced as planned. Standard US Army TO/E is one ADA battalion per division, while other countries have ADA brigade or regiment per division.
__/__Maintenance Battalions. Expanding.
__/__Motor Transport Regiments. Three of the 12 infantry divisions are still forming their MTRs. The 9th Division already has a maintenance battalion but does not have an MTR. Expect the 9th to add an MTR and to form a support brigade.
__/__Location Commands. Formation of a support brigade in each division composed of a BSU, MTR, and maintenance battalion is in progress.

Corps:
_____Leadership.
_____Intelligence. Forming at this level.
_____Medical. Forming at this level.
_____Communications. Forming at this level.
_____Corps Support Brigades. Unformed. The previously identified corps' level elements have been cannibalized for the expanding divisional support.
_____Corps Independent Brigades. Normally, corps have additional field artillery, ADA, engineer, aviation, and other brigades. The Presidential Brigade is the only brigade announced forming.

Army:
_____Leadership. There is a limited pool of trustworthy senior officers and NCOs.
__/__Intelligence. Intelligence at Army/Ministry level has improved.
__/__Medical. Work in progress.
__/__Communications. Work in progress.
__/__Logistics. The National Depots are expanding and a maintenance depot is being established. Divisional Location Commands filling out. Corps and Brigade level deficient.
_____Artillery. Nonexistent. It is scheduled to start in 2009.
_____Air Defense. Nonexistent. Only ATC radars are fielded and there are reports that tactical anti-aircraft missile are being shopped for by MoD.
_____Aviation. Iraqi Air Force is an under-strength transport and reconnaissance group. The Iraqi Air Force is grossly insufficient in size and capabilities.
_____Engineers/EOD. At all levels the engineers/EOD elements are short on trained personnel and equipment.
__/__APCs/MRAPs/HMMWVs. The additional purchases of trucks and HMMWVs indicate a plan to be fully motorized by the end of 2009.
_____Armor. There are not enough tanks to fill the 9th division. That is being filled out later in 2008. The IA requires a minimum of six additional mechanized/armored divisions to counter the probable threat (Iran and its ally Syria).
_____Size. The Iraqi Army remains deficient in leadership, logistics, artillery, mortars, engineers/EOD, APCs, armor, and most of all size. Current announced force structure would require 150,000-200,000 more personnel to fill out mission components in their TO/E.