Sharon’s Next Step — Or Why I Gave up Jelly Donuts

By: Richard Z. Chesnoff.

Questions about Ariel Sharon's health have thrown the Mideast into a political dither. The seemingly indefatigable Israeli prime minister suffered “a ministroke” last week. His doctors claim there was no permanent damage, and the soldier cum politician was quickly on his feet and back at his file-laden desk.

But tough as he is, Sharon is almost 78. He is a notorious workaholic and thanks to a legendary appetite, dangerously obese. All that plus his ministroke have raised questions about Sharon's ability to continue leading Israel effectively – not to mention carry his newly created political party Kadima (Forward) to victory in the March Israeli elections and the Mideast toward real political solutions.

Still vastly popular, Sharon remains a political lightning rod. His support level is high, but his detractors run hot and vocal both at home and abroad – notably right here in New York. At a concert of cantorial music that I attended at Lincoln Center the other night, a wish of “complete recovery” for Sharon from the stage drew a loud hoot from the balcony: “Why, so he can give away more territory?” – a reference to Sharon's controversial unilateral withdrawal of Israeli troops and settlers from the Gaza Strip last summer.

Still, polls show his supporters vastly outnumber his critics. And now they're worried. As Yossi Verter of the Israeli daily Ha'Aretz put it, Israeli voters are asking: “Did his stroke affect his ability to function, damage his work capabilities, erode his near-mythical faculties that enable him to exhibit the judgment, self-control, clarity and sharpness that have made him the ultimate prime minister?”

Full answers will come in time. But today's hard-nosed political question is whether Sharon's Kadima Party can still forge ahead. Sharon dramatically bolted from his right-wing Likud bloc last month to establish the new centrist party. His goal: to attract supporters from both right and left.

Kadima has already drawn a wide range of political stars from left-wing doves like Shimon Peres to right-wing hawks like Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz. All of them share Sharon's belief that Israel will have to make more tough, possibly unilateral compromises on territory in order to achieve secure borders with the Palestinians and banish the specter of terror and war haunting both sides.

Problem for the moment is that Kadima remains more of an idea than a full-fledged party. It still has no official membership, no political organization. Sharon remains the glue that holds it all together. To succeed, Kadima must take shape quickly, and the aging Sharon must reassure Israeli voters by naming possible younger successors.

Mostly, the Israeli premier must follow his doctor's orders and his friends' advice. President Bush told “Arik” to eat healthier, exercise and spread out his work load. Or as one Israeli reader wrote to a Jerusalem daily: “Tell the big guy to cut out the jelly doughnuts!”

Now there's some sound political advice.