December 4, 2012 | Quote
Analysts: Egypt’s Military Won’t Buck the Brotherhood
Egypt's military played a decisive role in the 2011 uprising that ended the rule of dictator Hosni Mubarak in the face of a popular uprising. The generals are likely to stand aside this time, however, as Egypt's new Islamist president, Mohammed Morsi, consolidates his hold on power, and demonstrators clog Cairo's Tahrir Square in protest, Egypt watchers say.
Signs of the military's shift are evident in the proposed constitution that has prompted strong opposition in the square, says Eric Trager, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who has studied the Muslim Brotherhood organization that backs Morsi.
“The military gets something in the constitution and it has an incentive to play along with the Muslim Brotherhood,” Trager says.
The constitution, drafted without input from secularists and Christians and passed Thursday night in a rushed session of parliament, preserves the military's control over its budget and foreign policy, meaning it can maintain peace with Israel and retain billions of dollars of U.S. aid, Trager says.
The military did not withdraw its representative from the constitutional assembly that drafted the document. And it did not protest this year, when Morsi retired 70 senior officers and replaced the top generals after security lapses in the Sinai Peninsula.
It appears that the Brotherhood and Morsi have solidified a deal with the military in which Morsi is the political leader of Egypt, Trager says.
Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators have thronged Cairo's central square and cities across Egypt. The protests and street battles were sparked Nov. 22 when Morsi announced himself beyond judicial review, seizing absolute power and prompting a general strike by Egypt's judges.
On Saturday, Morsi supporters led by the Brotherhood conducted demonstrations of their own in front of Cairo University, some distance away.
The Brotherhood has dismissed the relative strength of anti-Islamist demonstrators battling security forces in the streets this week, in sometimes threatening language.
A post by the Brotherhood's official Twitter account Tuesday, @Ikhwanweb, said: “Opposition thinks the significance of today is # of Tahrir protesters (200-300k), they shld brace for millions in support of the elected prez.”
Khairi Abaza, a former member of the secular Wafd Party, said from Cairo on Friday that while Islamists are numerous, the opposition is a powerful rival, newly united by Morsi's actions.
The anti-Islamist faction sees the military as having “set up a scenario that led to an Islamist win,” Abaza said.
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which ruled Egypt after Mubarak stepped down, decided to hold elections a few months after his overthrow and before drafting the constitution. At the time, only the Brotherhood was organized enough to win, Abaza said.
Rather than pin their hopes on the military, the opposition plans to cripple the country through demonstrations and a continued strike by the judiciary, he said.
Some analysts, such as Wayne White, a former senior State Department intelligence official, say the military would step in if the conflict threatens their economic interests and the stability of the country.
The United States, other Western countries, Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states have spent billions to prop up the Egyptian economy and “now to see the country descending into chaos again is jolting,” White says.
White believes the generals, who control a huge segment of Egypt's economy, are waiting to see whether Morsi will back down, which would leave him weakened and damaged politically, or if the situation worsens.
Others doubt the military will want to step back into the role of ruler and decider in case of street battles between Islamists and the opposition.
“Crowd control is not their (the military's) forte,” says David Schenker, director of the program on Arab politics at the Washington Institute.