Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

The United States and its European allies said on Thursday that it was now just a matter of weeks to salvage the 2015 Iran nuclear deal after a round of talks in which a French diplomatic source said there had been no progress on the core issues. – Reuters  

Iran, China and Russia held their third joint naval drills in the northern Indian Ocean on Friday, state TV reported. – Reuters  

A verdict in Iran’s trial of French tourist Benjamin Briere, jailed for over a year on charges of “spying and acting against the Islamic Republic”, could be issued within days, one of his lawyers told Reuters on Thursday. – Reuters  

A court in Tehran has sentenced financial reporter Amir-Abbas Azarmvand to three years and seven months in prison after convicting him of “spreading propaganda against the system.” – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

Israeli fighter jets carried out a large drill over the Mediterranean that included practicing mid-air refueling, according to a report in a Saudi-run news outlet Thursday. – Times of Israel 

A. Savyon writes: In early January 2022, the Iranian regime marked the second anniversary of the killing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani with dozens of ceremonies and speeches across the country. At memorial ceremonies, regime officials glorified Soleimani and his activity to implement the regime’s vision of exporting Iran’s Islamic Revolution and to expand the political and military influence of the Iranian revolutionary regime in countries across the region. –Middle East Media Research Institute 

Ali Fathollah-Nejad and Mahdi Ghodsi write: By shoring up all three of these pillars, Tehran wants to prepare for more stormy times ahead, yet its reliance on repression and propaganda while potentially exaggerating future income may exacerbate the nation’s ills instead of helping to cure them. The jump in oil income that the proposed budget relies on may only be realized if a deal is reached in Vienna to revive the JCPOA. In other words, Raisi’s claim that the fate of Iran’s economy is not tied to sanctions and the JCPOA’s future is not only utterly misleading, but it is also contradicted by his administration’s own budget assumptions. – Middle East Institute  

Bilal Y. Saab writes: We don’t know which of these scenarios is more likely. But it’s obvious that the damage caused by the Houthis in Abu Dhabi has far more serious consequences than the loss of three innocent lives and the burning of a fuel depot. The attack raises critical questions about the extent of Iran’s involvement in the Yemen war and the exact nature of its relationship with the Houthis — questions to which we simply don’t have convincing answers. – Middle East Institute  

Maya Carlin writes: Tehran’s influence at home and abroad is faltering and its cooperation with aligned militias has, for the most part, continued unchecked. In order to display a mirage of stability and strength, regime officials will likely lean even more on their proxy apparatus in the upcoming months. – The National Interest 

Mark Regev writes: Unfortunately, a bad outcome from the current Vienna talks appears all but certain, avoiding such a scenario seemingly based on the hope that extreme Iranian intransigence will prevent an agreement. But the regime deserves more credit than that, a “compromise” will be found allowing the West a face-saver but leaving the Islamic Republic with the infrastructure that makes the future construction of nuclear weapons possible. – Jerusalem Post  

Turkey

President Tayyip Erdogan’s approval rating rose 2.1 percentage points in January, a poll by Metropoll Research showed on Thursday, as the Turkish lira steadied in recent weeks on the back of government measures despite soaring inflation. – Reuters 

Both Russia and Ukraine are open to the idea of Turkey playing a role to ease tensions between the two countries, as proposed by Ankara in November, Turkish diplomatic sources said on Thursday. – Reuters  

Turkey and Qatar have reached agreement on ensuring security at Kabul’s main airport should they be awarded the mission amid ongoing talks with the Taliban government, Turkish diplomatic sources said on Thursday. – Reuters 

Kareem Fahim writes: Amid the latest economic crisis, Erdogan has framed developments, including the plunging value of the lira, as calculated steps designed to foster export-led growth, increase access to credit and reduce the country’s current account deficit. This explanation is part of a populist pitch ahead of the 2023 elections. – Washington Post 

Yemen

Yemen lost its connection to the internet nationwide early Friday after Saudi-led airstrikes targeted a site in the contested city of Hodeida, an advocacy group said, plunging the war-torn nation offline. – Associated Press 

The director of SITE Intelligence Group said on Thursday that AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) announced the death of a military commander in a U.S. air strike in Yemen. – Reuters  

Sanaa, held by Iran-aligned Houthi forces since 2014, had since 2020 enjoyed relative calm as fighting flared elsewhere in Yemen. But in September the coalition resumed attacks on military sites belonging to the Houthis, which had ramped up cross-border missile and drone launches on Saudi cities and on Monday struck the United Arab Emirates. – Reuters  

Gerald M. Feierstein writes: With these new attacks and expansion of Houthi regional aggression, the balance between listing and not listing the Houthis may have shifted. The administration might suggest the time has come to reconsider the original decision, beginning by engaging humanitarian relief organizations on whether a listing of the Houthis could be implemented that would insulate essential relief efforts from harm. – Middle East Institute  

Middle East & North Africa

The Islamic State, the Syrian government and Russia blamed the United States, but the dam was on the U.S. military’s “no-strike list” of protected civilian sites and the commander of the U.S. offensive at the time, then-Lt. Gen. Stephen J. Townsend, said allegations of U.S. involvement were based on “crazy reporting.” – New York Times 

Libya’s central bank said on Thursday that it has started a process to reunify after being split for years during the country’s civil war. – Associated Press 

A rocket attack on a northern Syrian town controlled by Turkey-backed opposition fighters killed six civilians and wounded over a dozen people on Thursday, Syrian rescuers and a war monitor said. Both blamed U.S-backed Syrian Kurdish forces for the attack. – Associated Press 

Islamic State militants attacked a prison in Syria’s al-Hasaka in an attempt to free prisoners belonging to the group who had mutinied, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) said in a statement on Thursday. – Reuters  

Israel Prime Minister Naftali Bennett spoke with Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post 

Elizia Volkmann writes: Unfortunately, Tunisia’s lack of stability and seeming inability to make radical changes to its Ministry of the Interior and police force have seen numerous rollbacks toward authoritarian-style laws, such as the draft of a new state of emergency law first tabled in 2019, which Amnesty International said would have pushed back human rights to pre-2011 days. […]With these arrests and reports from anti-coup campaigners and the warrant issued for the arrest of former President Moncef Marzouki, it seems that Saied’s campaign to eliminate and discredit his opposition is only likely to continue. – Middle East Institute  

China

China’s central bank lowered its benchmark lending rates, stepping in to support a slowing economy that has been weighed down by a slump in the property market during a politically important year for leader Xi Jinping. – Wall Street Journal  

The extra yield that Chinese government bonds offer over U.S. Treasurys this week dropped below a percentage point for the first time in nearly three years, as the central banks of the world’s two largest economies move in opposite directions. – Wall Street Journal   

A bipartisan group of more than 140 U.S. lawmakers called on U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai to immediately revive and expand a tariff exclusion process on Chinese goods to help U.S. manufacturers. – Reuters   

The new head of Hong Kong’s Bar Association pledged on Thursday to defend the Chinese-ruled territory’s vaunted rule of law amid concerns over the impact of a Beijing-imposed national security law on the Asian financial hub. – Reuters    

At some of the world’s most sensitive spots, authorities have installed security screening devices made by a single Chinese company with deep ties to China’s military and the highest levels of the ruling Communist Party. – Associated Press 

France’s parliament passed an opposition-led motion asking the government to condemn China for “crimes against humanity and genocide” against its Uyghur Muslim minority and to take foreign policy measures to make this stop. – Reuters  

The U.S. Navy on Thursday denied a Chinese claim that the People’s Liberation Army Navy chased an American destroyer away from islands in the South China Sea. – USNI News 

Tom Rogan writes: As EU leaders and the European Parliament consider the next steps in their relationship with China, they should pay close heed to Beijing’s willingness to watch Europe burn. It says much about the political nature and duplicity of this regime. – Washington Examiner  

Eswar Prasad writes: The Chinese economy has held up remarkably well through the pandemic but now faces a combination of waning growth and financial market volatility. This reflects a number of dilemmas that Beijing is grappling with, some of which are of its own making. – Financial Times 

Derek Scissors writes: The Biden administration stuck to tariffs and Phase One in part because it feared political fallout from abandoning them. The fallout would be minor if the administration overcame business lobbying and offered substantial policies that treat China, correctly, as an economic rival. Relocating key supply chains is the single best option. – China Business Review  

Asia

The United States is looking for ways to potentially accelerate delivery of Taiwan’s next generation of new-build F-16 fighter jets, U.S. officials said, bolstering the Taiwanese air force’s ability to respond to what Washington and Taipei see as increasing intimidation by China’s military. – Reuters  

Myanmar’s military has arrested three people working for the independent news portal Dawei Watch, an editor at the publication said on Thursday, the latest detentions under a media crackdown that has occurred since last year’s coup. – Reuters  

President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will hold their first formal talks on Friday as the two leaders face fresh concerns about North Korea’s nuclear program and China’s growing military assertiveness. – Associated Press 

Washington has suggested Lithuania consider changing the name of Taiwan’s representative office in the capital Vilnius in an effort to help ease tensions between the Baltic state and China since the mission was established. – Financial Times 

Europe

The U.S. dispatched the head of the Central Intelligence Agency to Berlin and Kyiv, as part of its efforts to persuade European nations to rally around a tougher response against Moscow and in support of Ukraine, an approach that is complicated by the countries’ closer economic ties with Russia. – Wall Street Journal   

President Biden said Thursday that any Russian troop movement into Ukraine would be considered an invasion, seeking to clear up confusion over his position on a potential incursion as the administration gave approval for U.S.-made weapons to be transferred to Kyiv. – Wall Street Journal   

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday highlighted Western unity in confronting Russia’s pressure on Ukraine, even as the standoff over Moscow’s military buildup exposes differences among the United States and its European allies. – Washington Post  

Federal prosecutors unsealed an indictment Thursday against several Belarusian government officials for allegedly plotting to divert a Lithuania-bound aircraft to a Minsk airport so a dissident and his girlfriend could be arrested there. – Washington Post  

Britain warned Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday that its allies would stand together to fight for democracy against dictatorships that it said were more emboldened than at any time since the Cold War. – Reuters  

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson discussed the situation on the Ukrainian border and agreed that further Russian military aggression against Ukraine must be averted, a German government spokesperson said on Friday. – Reuters  

The U.S. Treasury Department levied new sanctions Thursday against four Ukrainian officials, including two current members of parliament who administration officials say are part of a Russian influence effort to set the pretext for further invasion of Ukraine. – Associated Press 

Short of an all-out invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin could take less dramatic action in Ukraine that would vastly complicate a U.S. and allied response. He might carry out what President Joe Biden called a “minor incursion” — perhaps a cyberattack — leaving the U.S. and Europe divided on the type and severity of economic sanctions to impose on Moscow and ways to increase support for Kyiv. – Associated Press 

Belarus has set February 27 for a referendum on constitutional amendments initiated by Alyaksandr Lukashenka that will allow him to further strengthen his authoritarian rule and remain in office until 2035. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

Officials in Berlin have rejected a renewed request by Ukraine for lethal, defensive equipment in the face of Russia’s massive troop buildup, effectively testing the restrictive arms-export policy enshrined in the government’s coalition agreement. – Defense News 

Editorial: At the press conference, Mr. Biden was assessing the current state of affairs between the U.S. and Europe, but he isn’t a foreign-policy analyst speaking on a Washington panel. The world listens when a President speaks. His job is to try to shape reality in terms favorable to American interests. That means leading the West toward a unified and stern response to any aggression against Ukraine—not commenting on how tough a job that is. – Wall Street Journal   

Editorial: As important as what Mr. Blinken said was where he said it: Berlin, capital of Europe’s most populous, richest and most influential democracy, and the one that has attempted simultaneously to get its energy from Russia and its security from the United States and NATO. Events are rapidly making Germany’s position less and less tenable. However belatedly — and however clumsily — the Biden administration has tried to rally the West. In the end, though, Germany and other European countries cannot outsource all the political will to the United States. They must supply some themselves. – Washington Post 

Nolan Peterson writes: Apart from the symbolic value, however, I fear it’s already too late for Western military aid to improve Ukraine’s ability to defend against a major Russian offensive. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union should also consider pre-emptive deliveries of humanitarian aid to prepare for the possibility of millions of displaced people in the dead of winter. – Wall Street Journal  

Michael Vickers writes: The Biden administration has sought a “stable and predictable relationship” with Russia. What it has received in return is the prospect of a Russian-instigated major war in Europe with far-reaching strategic consequences. – Washington Post  

Mihir Sharma writes: There are very few ways in which Great Britain can still claim to be a global power. It does not set the terms of world trade as China does. It has ceded the waves to the U.S. Navy, which boasts ten times as many aircraft carriers. It does not have regulatory or standard-setting power, unlike the European Union it so huffily left. Sure, the United Kingdom has nuclear weapons. But then, so does North Korea. – Bloomberg   

Andreas Kluth writes: What are we going to call these different and varying assaults? Incursions? Skirmishes? Invasions? As Biden said, we’ll probably end up fighting about definitions for months, and then reach very different conclusions. This is the West’s greatest weakness. Leadership — in both North America and Europe — now means recognizing that, and then doing everything possible to turn the many into one. – Bloomberg   

Francesca Ghiretti writes: The European Union should provide more detailed guidelines so member states only forward risky transactions to Brussels rather than simply sending notifications for all of them. […]In this way, both member states and Brussels can become aware of transactions that have not been notified and trigger the relevant national and regional screening mechanisms. The commission would still have a limited ability to influence a member state’s decision over specific investments. But once these potentially risky investments were identified and publicized, media attention and peer pressure could work wonders. – War on the Rocks  

The Americas

U.S. prosecutors in Miami have detained and charged a second suspect in connection with the July assassination of Haitian President Jovenel Moïse, highlighting progress by American investigators even as the six-month probe in Haiti remains stalled. – Wall Street Journal  

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Thursday said he spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin about cooperation between the two countries. – Associated Press  

Network operators of critical Canadian infrastructure should boost their defenses against Russian state-sponsored threats, Canada’s signals intelligence agency said on Thursday. – Reuters  

Brazil’s top electoral authority, the TSE, is considering whether to ban the messaging app Telegram during the run-up to October elections because it has not responded to requests to help combat the spread of misinformation. – Reuters 

Cybersecurity

A recent cyberattack in Ukraine has heightened concerns in Kyiv that Moscow is plotting to support a land invasion with destructive hacks, although some experts remain puzzled about the Kremlin’s intentions. – Wall Street Journal 

Twitter shook up the top ranks of its security team this week with the termination of the head of security and the exit of the chief information security officer, the company told employees on Wednesday, as its new chief executive reorganizes the social media service. – New York Times 

Alphabet Inc.’s Google escalated its spending on Washington lobbyists last year as the technology behemoth fought antitrust scrutiny from both federal enforcers and new legislation that would change the way some of its most popular products work together. – Bloomberg 

Facebook has apologized to the director of a prominent pro-Israel lobbying group at the United Nations for threatening to close his account, and said it had restored a post from last year that had prompted it to impose restrictions on his page. – Times of Israel 

Annabelle Chapman writes: Yet Pegasus is unlikely to bring down the Law and Justice government. It has ridden out other scandals in the past. Yet even if the Pegasus affair blows over, it once again shows how the Polish government and the EU see the world differently and will be another issue that divides Warsaw and Brussels. – Center for European Policy Analysis 

Kevin Sheives writes: The solution to disinformation is not to substitute government power for that of tech giants, or to leave it to the tech giants in the hope their platforms don’t trample the truth. Regulating speech and online expression presents many dangers to democratic ideals and freedom of expression. […]But this vision for a powerful, networked response to meet the global disinformation challenge will fail if the organizations at the front lines are not equipped with the right tools. – War on the Rocks