Fdd's overnight brief

Afghanistan

A key route out of Taliban-controlled Afghanistan was cut off Thursday when Pakistan canceled its national carrier’s flights between Islamabad and Kabul, citing disagreements with the Taliban. – Washington Post

Initially, it was used to smuggle out priority cases for the CIA, including intelligence assets, local agents and their families and a list of high-importance cases sent from the White House. Later, the entrance was expanded to become the main conduit for State Department efforts in the final 48 hours of the civilian evacuation mission to help vulnerable Afghans who worked at the U.S. Embassy and others who could not make it through Taliban checkpoints blocking access to the airport. – Wall Street Journal

The State Department plans to resume regular evacuation flights from Afghanistan before the end of the year to help U.S. citizens, residents and some visa applicants leave the country, a senior State Department official said, an effort that will require coordination with the Taliban and other governments. – Wall Street Journal

The Taliban is struggling to govern a drastically changed country in Afghanistan, the nation’s ambassador to the United States said Wednesday. – C4ISRNET

Amira Jadoon and Andrew Mines write: Regional coordination and intelligence sharing could allow governments to better track the movement of foreign fighters between conflict zones. Cooperation could also focus on tracking and disrupting cross-border alliances, which are a key source of the Islamic State in Afghanistan’s attack capabilities. […]Pakistan, China, Russia, and Iran have all put considerable stock in their future relationship with the Taliban. Washington can leverage this to make sure they all give the Taliban the support it needs to defeat the Islamic State in Afghanistan. – War on the Rocks

Israel

Iran-backed forces in Syria said on Thursday they would respond forcefully to an Israeli strike over Syria’s Palmyra area in the province of Homs on Wednesday evening in the second such strike within a week. – Reuters

The United States during talks this week made clear its opposition to Israel’s building of Jewish settlements on occupied land that the Palestinians want for a future state, a senior Israeli official said on Thursday. – Reuters

The United States has concerns with the United Nations Human Rights Council and will oppose its “disproportionate” attention on Israel, State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters on Thursday after the U.S. was elected back to the council. – Reuters

Mousa Abu Marzouq, a member of the Hamas political bureau and a senior member of the movement’s leadership, accuses Israel of failing to agree on an exchange deal in which IDF soldiers and missing Israelis will be returned in exchange for the release of Palestinian Arab security prisoners. – Arutz Sheva

A new computer game centering around the murder of Israeli soldiers has been removed from Facebook, following an outcry among pro-Israeli groups and Israeli lawmakers. – Arutz Sheva

Nathan Lewin and Alyza D. Lewin write: If the Biden administration converts the Agron Street complex or any location in Jerusalem into a de facto embassy to the Palestinian Authority, complete with a consul-general who reports not to the U.S. ambassador but directly to the State Department, America would be resurrecting from the grave a dangerous fabrication that it finally buried three years ago. – Newsweek

Meir Javedanfar writes: However, on balance, Azerbaijan is militarily and economically smaller than Iran. Its relations with Israel that anger Iran were partly established because of the threat it feels from the Iranian regime. Iran wants Azerbaijan to distance itself from Israel, but its recent military muscle-flexing is only likely to push Azerbaijan in the opposite direction, toward Israel. – Middle East Institute

Dr. Salem AlKetbi writes: However superficial this pretext may be, it provides Israel with a strong reason to convince the international community of the extent of Iran’s provocations. The mullahs, who repeat day and night that they will not tolerate Israel’s presence in their neighborhood, in return unintendedly give Israel the same right: the right not to tolerate any Iranian military presence in its neighborhood either. – Arutz Sheva

Yemen

The Saudi-led coalition supporting Yemen’s government said more than 150 Huthi rebels were killed Thursday in air strikes south of Marib city, where the insurgents are pushing on the government’s last northern stronghold. – Agence France-Presse

Yemen’s economy is collapsing, its humanitarian crisis is worsening, and the conflict in the Arab world’s poorest nation is growing more violent, the U.N.’s deputy humanitarian chief said Thursday. – Associated Press

Hundreds of Yemenis are trapped by fierce fighting between government and Houthi forces in the northern Marib governorate, residents and a local official said, after battles for control of the gas-rich region displaced some 10,000 people last month. – Reuters

China

Chinese President Xi Jinping will speak with European Council chief Charles Michel, the latest indication that Beijing and Brussels are seeking a way forward following a spat over alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang. – Bloomberg

China has stepped up pressure on Taiwan in recent weeks, flying dozens of warplanes near the self-ruled island in a show of strength that has put the entire region on edge. – CNN 

China is preparing to send three astronauts to live on its space station for six months — a new milestone for a program that has advanced rapidly in recent years. – Associated Press

China’s top national security decisionmakers are stunned by a devastating suicide bombing attack in Afghanistan last week reportedly carried out by a Uighur Muslim, sources say, provoking Beijing to either disrupt its march toward greater investments in the Taliban government or to commit further to the quagmire that has stymied other superpowers for decades. – US News & World Report

Tom Rogan writes: This mixture of Orwellian “whole process” language and soaring rhetoric reflects the ultimate truth of contemporary China: first, the quite obvious truth that China is not actually a democracy; second, the Communist Party’s paranoid need to remind itself that it is very special. This paranoia flows from the party’s recognition that where its citizens pursue actual democracy, the all-knowing party doesn’t do so well. Sorry, Xi, you might be the ruler of China. You might be immensely powerful. But Xi, you’re no democrat. – Washington Examiner

Chris Li and Eric Rosenbach write: To call for dialogue and communication with China’s military leadership is not to condone its aggression or Beijing’s repression at home. Even at the height of the Cold War, U.S. President Ronald Reagan, while denouncing the Soviet Union as the “evil empire,” hosted Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev for arms control negotiations. […]The United States and China are on a dangerous path in the Indo-Pacific. Both sides must seize the opportunity to prevent a wider conflict before it is too late. – Foreign Affairs

Anthony H. Cordesman writes: Given these trends, the strategic importance of the MENA region and the Gulf is at least as important as it was during the peak period of U.S. dependence on petroleum imports – and may well be higher now. So are America’s ability to deter conflicts and threats to and within the region as well as its ability to protect and work with its strategic partners. U.S. strategic partnerships in the MENA region have become a critical tool in maintaining U.S. countervailing power against China, in aiding America’s partners in Asia as well as in addressing the continuing threat of instability – and terrorism and extremism – in the MENA region. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Ben Noon and Chris Bassler write: Even if the PLA can overcome its internal challenges, success in war will remain uncertain. Ultimately, victory on the battlefield depends on where the battle is fought and against whom. China is increasingly becoming a formidable military adversary in the Western Pacific. Although the possibility of the PLA becoming “world class” by Xi’s own criteria seems unlikely, the U.S. military and key allies will have their hands full in a contingency inside the first and second island chains of the Indo-Pacific. Perhaps only opening Schrodinger’s box, with real combat experience, will reveal the PLA’s actual progress in achieving its modernization goals. – War on the Rocks

Russia

Russia’s foreign minister said he discussed the Russian media situation in Belarus during a visit to the country on Thursday following the arrest of a journalist who worked for a top Russian newspaper. – Associated Press

China and Russia are holding joint naval drills off the Russian Far East in the latest sign of their growing political and military alignment. – Associated Press

Natalia Antonova writes: Today, the Kremlin spokesperson practically foams at the mouth when he insists that Russia is a modern democracy, with every citizen’s rights enshrined by a relatively progressive constitution. But there are lofty words, and then there is reality. All of this is especially sad when you recall just how many brilliant, extremely dedicated people work in the Russian space program. […]And it is only possible because Russia remains committed to space—at this point, in spite of, and not because of, its rapacious ruling class. – Foreign Policy

Africa

President Biden on Thursday announced the donation of millions of coronavirus vaccines to a group of African countries during a meeting with President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya, which is contending with the pandemic and an unfolding humanitarian disaster in neighboring Ethiopia. – New York Times

A telecoms blackout will be maintained in large swathes of northwest Nigeria because it is helping the armed forces crack down on bandits responsible for a wave of abductions and attacks, the country’s top general said on Thursday. – Reuters

Katherine Tai, U.S. global trade representative, said Washington would “soon” decide on Ethiopia’s status under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), an agreement which gives it duty-free access to the United States. – Reuters

South African security forces freed two cabinet ministers held hostage by war veterans demanding reparations for their involvement in the fight against White-minority rule a quarter century ago. – Bloomberg

A mob lynched a military police officer after he killed a five-year-old girl when he fired on a car at a checkpoint in the capital of Cameroon’s English-speaking South West Region on Thursday, the defense ministry said. – CNN

When France pulls its troops out of Timbuktu, the city will still be protected by Malian forces and some 800 U.N. peacekeepers, mostly from Burkina Faso. French bases in Tessalit and Kidal will also be shuttered, the French military has said. Timbuktu Mayor Aboubacrine Cissé does not hide his unease with France’s decision to end its Operation Barkhane. – Associated Press

United States

The U.N. General Assembly on Thursday elected the United States to the Geneva-based Human Rights Council, more than three years after the Trump administration quit the 47-member body over what it called chronic bias against Israel and a lack of reform. – Reuters

The United States and Greece signed a deal Thursday expanding their defense cooperation agreement to grant U.S. forces broader use of Greek bases, as that nation deals with tensions between it and neighboring Turkey. – Associated Press

Defense

President Joe Biden plans to nominate Ravi Chaudhary, a former Federal Aviation Administration official who served in the Air Force for more than 20 years, as the Air Force’s next assistant secretary for installations, environment and energy on Thursday, a White House official tells Air Force Times. – Defense News

The U.S. Army’s Precision Strike Missile broke its distance record in a flight test at Vandenberg Space Force Base, California, Oct. 13, according to an Oct. 14 Lockheed Martin statement. – Defense News

Saab officially opened the West Lafayette production facility in Indiana from where it will build its share of the T-7A Red Hawk advanced jet trainer aircraft on which it is partnered with Boeing. – Janes

Kaman Air Vehicles unveiled its Kargo unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), an autonomous heavy-lift quadcopter capable of carrying approximately 363 kg payload, with a full-scale model at the Association of the United States Army’s (AUSA’s) annual convention. – Janes

The US Army has postponed plans to field Microsoft’s HoloLens 2 augmented reality (AR) system to soldiers while it ‘matures’ the technology, the service has confirmed. – Janes

The Army is still experimenting with the right command-and-control mechanisms for information advantage capabilities across various echelons and regions, a service official said this week. – C4ISRNET