Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

A Jordanian gunman shot and killed three Israeli civilians at an important border crossing between the Israeli-controlled West Bank and Jordan on Sunday, Israel and Jordan said, amid heightened tensions between the two countries over the war in Gaza. – Wall Street Journal

A disagreement over a tiny strip of land along Gaza’s border with Egypt has become one of the major stumbling blocks to reaching a cease-fire. The Philadelphi corridor, also known as Salah al Din Axis, is a nearly nine-mile-long, 100-yard-wide area inside Gaza. – Wall Street Journal

Hamas released a video of American-Israeli hostage Hersh Goldberg-Polin filmed before he was killed that shows him urging President Biden to end the war in Gaza through a hostage deal, nearly a week after Israel accused the militant group of killing him and five others in Gaza. – Wall Street Journal

The effort that Hamas and other Gaza militants have devoted to filming the roughly 250 people taken during the Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel—even amid fierce fighting in the enclave—shows the centrality of hostage-taking to the U.S.-designated terrorist group’s strategy for putting pressure on Israel and surviving the war. – Wall Street Journal

Aysenur Eygi, 26, was killed Friday at a protest in Beita, where witnesses said she was shot in the head by Israeli forces who had opened fire. The White House said it was “deeply disturbed” by her death and that U.S. officials had contacted Israel to request an investigation. – Washington Post

At least 14 people were killed late on Sunday in multiple Israeli strikes targeting the vicinity of Masyaf, a city in Syria’s Hama province, Syria’s state news agency reported on Monday. – Reuters

An Israeli airstrike on a house in Jabalia on Sunday killed Mohammad Morsi, deputy director of the Gaza Civil Emergency Service in the northern areas of the Gaza Strip, and four of his family, health officials said. – Reuters

Abdulmalik Dehamshe, former leader of the Islamist Ra’am party, stirred up a storm after a series of statements he made in an interview with Makan, the Arabic-speaking outlet of the ‏Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation, in which he justified Hamas’s bloody incursion into Israel on October 7. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF has opened an in-depth investigation into who, why, and how the names of the hostages were leaked on social media last weekend before the IDF provided official confirmation, N12 reported on Monday. The leak led hostage families to learn of their loved ones’ deaths via social media. – Jerusalem Post

The chances of a phased hostage-ceasefire agreement being achieved on the basis of Israel’s May proposal are “close to zero” and there is “very broad pessimism” among the Israeli negotiators, Channel 12 reported Sunday, citing unnamed sources in the Israeli security establishment. – Times of Israel

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told ministers at the beginning of Sunday evening’s security cabinet meeting that they must coordinate any visit to Jerusalem’s Temple Mount holy site with him ahead of time. – Times of Israel

Released Hamas hostage Aviva Siegel on Saturday described the pressures of being forced to make propaganda videos for the terror group while being held in dire conditions in the Gaza Strip, including being coerced to repeat lines and pretend that adequate food was being given to her in captivity. – Times of Israel

Editorial: Meanwhile, the military wing of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah party took responsibility for two car bombings last Friday, contending with Hamas for credit. Any new sanctions on Fatah officials? Nope. What happened to that “revitalized” Palestinian Authority promised by Secretary of State Antony Blinken? – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: We cannot endure a society in which public servants are assaulted by citizens who don’t agree with them. At the same time, the country needs to have faith that the police are acting above all partisan concerns, and not acting as the long arm of their boss, the national security minister. The upshot of Ben-Gvir’s tenure as national security minister is that any police action is now suspect as having political motivations. That’s his muddy and dangerous legacy, and it must be nipped in the bud now, once and for all. – Jerusalem Post

Jason Willick writes: Netanyahu’s handling of the war hasn’t catered narrowly to the country’s far right. Recent polls have shown Netanyahu competitive with or ahead of his main rivals on the left and center in a reversal from his post-Oct. 7 political nadir. The folk theory of Israel’s prime minister is a distraction — and no matter how vituperative their condemnations, his critics aren’t even acting like they believe it. – Washington Post

Dov S. Zakheim writes: President Biden and his negotiators state that their forthcoming cease-fire plan will be the last they will offer — a “take-it-or-leave-it” deal. Whatever the plan’s terms, it is unlikely to succeed as long as Netanyahu continues to heed the demands of his extremist ministers. Only a change in the governing coalition will provide the necessary conditions for a successful U.S. proposal. Over the next seven weeks, Netanyahu has a chance to stop the killing and save hostages’ lives. And he can do so while remaining in office for the rest of his electoral term. – The Hill

Dan Diker writes: Israel finds itself in a catch-22 to which there are no easy answers. History has taught us painful lessons about confronting and overcoming evil. The US response to 9/11 and the British response to the 7/7 al-Qaeda attack was to eliminate al-Qaeda militarily in Afghanistan and Iraq. The West’s response to Nazi Germany’s invasion of Europe wasn’t to negotiate with Hitler but to destroy the Nazi regime. – Jerusalem Post

Susan Hattis Rolef writes: Unfortunately, the chance for a true national-unity government being formed at this time – which would deal with the hostage issue and many other urgent issues on the national agenda (including judicial reform) that the current government seems unable to cope with – requires a change of attitude by the prime minister on the formation of an authentic national-unity government. Unfortunately, such a change does not appear to be in the cards. – Jerusalem Post

Michael Freund writes: Just as it proved to be 19 years ago, a withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor would be a catastrophic strategic mistake, one that would inevitably give rise to the smuggling of arms into Gaza and make another Oct. 7 possible. If the words “Never again is now” are to have any meaning, this cannot and must not be allowed to occur. – Jerusalem Post

Seth Mandel writes: As for exerting psychological pressure on the families in order to whip up public division, well, the same day this report was published, Hamas released a propaganda video of the American hostage they just executed, Hersh Goldberg-Polin. No one reacted to this document leak by suggesting that it doesn’t sound like something Hamas would do. It is describing exactly what the public is watching in real time, showing Hamas planning to do what it is doing now, before our very eyes. – Commentary Magazine 

Russia & Ukraine

Kyiv has captured more than 100 Russian towns and villages since it thrust into the Kursk region last month. President Volodymyr Zelensky told NBC News last week that Ukraine doesn’t want to hold the area forever, but said his forces would occupy it for now as a bargaining chip in any future talks to end the war. – Wall Street Journal

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused countries that have donated billions of dollars in military aid of slow-walking their deliveries, a rebuke that comes just days after briefing the U.S. on his plan for ending the war. – Wall Street Journal

Russians are losing access to YouTube, the last major Western social platform freely available in the country, cutting them off from information independent from the Kremlin and alarming internet freedom advocates, journalists and opposition activists. – Washington Post

Canada plans to send 80,840 surplus small unarmed air-to-surface rockets to Ukraine as well as 1,300 warheads in the coming months, Defense Minister Bill Blair said in a statement on Friday. – Reuters

Russia said on Sunday its forces had taken full control of a town in eastern Ukraine as Moscow’s forces advance on the strategically important city of Pokrovsk and seek to pierce the Ukrainian defensive front lines. – Reuters

The governor of Russia’s southern Belgorod region said on Sunday Ukrainian forces attacked a fuel depot, triggering a series of fires after Moscow and Kyiv accused each other of launching overnight attacks on border regions. – Reuters

Supporters of President Vladimir Putin and his war in Ukraine were set to win gubernatorial races across Russia, according to early vote counts on Sunday, including in Kursk where Ukrainian forces have seized control of some towns and territory. – Reuters

Any Iranian transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia would mark a sharp escalation in the Ukraine war, the United States said on Friday, following reports that the two countries had deepened ties in recent weeks with such an arms transfer. – Reuters

Elisabeth Braw writes: Law-abiding governments should remind the easy-flag countries that their reputations are at risk, and that they may be held accountable for accidents. They could also mention that eager flag-of-convenience states would benefit from proper maritime expertise, a resource that Western governments can provide. Then they wouldn’t have to resort to the sorry practice of flagging the world’s worst ships. – Wall Street Journal

Iraq

U.S. officials suspect his banks were among more than two dozen Iraqi banks involved in funneling dollars to Iran and its militia allies, using front companies and falsified invoices to circumvent sanctions that block Iran from the global financial system. – Wall Street Journal

A political adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has rejected recent allegations that employees at the premier’s office have been spying on and wire-tapping senior officials and politicians. – Reuters

The United States and Iraq have reached an understanding on plans for the withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces from Iraq, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter. – Reuters

Arabian Peninsula

As the talks for a cease-fire and the release of hostages have stalled and sputtered in recent months, Qatar has leveraged its influence with Hamas in an effort to break through myriad impasses, according to interviews with more than a dozen officials with knowledge of the negotiations. – New York Times

Kuwait, perched atop around 6 percent of global oil reserves, is one of the world’s wealthiest states and a major energy exporter. But in June, as soaring temperatures strained the country’s electrical grid, a Kuwaiti elementary school teacher, Shaikha al-Shammari, found herself leading lessons in the dark when the power suddenly cut out. – New York Times

Kuwait’s Emir Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad al-Sabah issued a decree on Sunday accepting the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Oil Emad al-Atiqi. – Reuters

Libya

Turkey’s spy chief visited Libya as backers of the Tripoli government search for a way out of a political impasse that has shut down Libya’s oil exports and jeopardised four years of relative stability. – Reuters

Libya’s chief prosecutor ordered the detention of a militia leader and one of his aides pending an investigation into the killing of one of the country’s most notorious human traffickers. – Associated Press

Libya’s coast guard intercepted dozens of Europe-bound migrants on a boat and returned them to shore, authorities said Saturday, a few days after a shipwreck off the North African country left nearly two dozen dead or missing. – Associated Press

Korean Peninsula

Over the past five days, North Korea has sent hundreds more drifting toward the South with payloads of trash like waste paper and used plastic bottles. This salvo follows a barrage of thousands of similar North Korean balloons earlier this summer. – New York Times

South Korea convened an international summit on Monday seeking to establish a blueprint for the responsible use of artificial intelligence (AI) in the military, though any agreement is not expected to have binding powers to enforce it. – Reuters

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin sent greetings to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on the occasion of North Korea’s founding anniversary, state media KCNA said on Monday. – Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un underscored the importance of strengthening naval power as he toured a naval base construction site, state media KCNA reported on Sunday. – Reuters

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol called on Friday at a summit in Seoul to keep up the momentum behind an improvement in relations, which will be tested by imminent changes of leaders in Tokyo and Washington. – Reuters

Three airmen have died at Kunsan Air Base in South Korea in a span of five weeks, but Air Force officials are providing few details on the causes of death and how they’re specifically addressing the string of incidents. – Military.com 

SeungHwan Kim writes: Seoul must think beyond simply raising the enrichment cap above 20 percent for an effective ENR capability and develop a long-term, consistent plan that enhances alliance trust and transparency amid changing nuclear geopolitics. Adopting a long-term strategy regarding ENR capability will significantly benefit South Korea in building bilateral and international trust in its nuclear latency while maximizing its national security interests. – National Interest

South Asia

Indian and Emirati officials are expected to review their trade agreement this week amid concerns raised by Indian industry over a sharp increase in imports of precious metals from the United Arab Emirates, people familiar with the matter said. – Reuters

The head of Bangladesh’s interim government, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus, on Sunday called for a fast-tracked third-country resettlement of Rohingya Muslims living in the south Asian country, as a new wave of refugees flee escalating violence in Myanmar’s Rakhine state. – Reuters

Six people, including one civilian, were killed as fresh violence broke out between two warring ethnic communities in the northeast Indian state of Manipur on Saturday, authorities said. – Reuters

India had recorded a suspected case of mpox found in a man who recently travelled from a country suffering an outbreak of the virus, the health ministry said on Sunday. – Reuters

Pakistan is renegotiating contracts with independent power producers to rein in “unsustainable” electricity tariffs, the head of the power ministry said, as households and businesses buckle under soaring energy costs. – Reuters

Mihir Sharma writes: Things might be different if India had the kind of surging private-sector investment or job growth that could sustain high domestic demand. Or if it had shown greater enthusiasm for integration with partners in the West, particularly the European Union. But neither is the case. For India to keep growing, it will need trade. And it will need to become part of value chains that, for the foreseeable future, will have a large Chinese component. If there’s no escaping this fact, then surely being inside RCEP is better for India than staying out? – Bloomberg

Europe

Tens of thousands of people took to the streets on Saturday to protest against French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to appoint a conservative prime minister, after a coalition of left-leaning parties won the most seats in parliamentary elections in July. – Wall Street Journal

Tony Blair is out with a new book, “On Leadership,” which he says offers all the tips he wished he’d been told when he entered 10 Downing Street in 1997. Given the timing, one can’t help but think of it as a user’s guide for Keir Starmer, the first Labour leader to win a British general election since he did. – New York Times

Kosovo said on Saturday it had closed two border crossings with Serbia after protesters on Serbian soil partially blocked roads and turned back passengers with Kosovo documents in protest over recent tensions in Kosovo’s volatile north. – Reuters

France’s next government will not be limited to members of his own conservative political grouping but will also include members of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist camp, Prime Minister Michel Barnier said on Friday. – Reuters

Two German warships are set to pass through the sensitive Taiwan Strait in the middle of this month, becoming the first German naval vessels to do so in 22 years, Spiegel magazine reported on Saturday. – Reuters

Greek opposition leader Stefanos Kasselakis was ousted by his party’s central committee Sunday via a motion of no confidence, just a year after his election to the post by party cadres who accused him of being an authoritarian and not fully ideologically aligned with the party. – Associated Press

The Dutch government is expanding export restrictions on equipment used to make advanced processor chips that can be integrated into weapons systems, a Cabinet minister announced Friday, citing security risks. – Associated Press

Italian officials said the European Union’s plan to ban sales of new internal combustion engines from 2035 should be reviewed. “The ban must be changed,” Energy Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin said on the sidelines of the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, on the shores of Italy’s Lake Como, on Saturday. – Bloomberg

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Joe Biden are set to discuss issues including the Israel-Hamas war during a meeting in Washington next week, as the two nations show fissures in their handling of the 11-month-old conflict. – Bloomberg

The UK government said it’s supplying Ukraine with 650 lightweight multirole missiles to boost the country’s air defenses against Russian attacks. The first batch of missiles in the $213 million package is expected to be delivered by the end of this year, the Defense Ministry in London said by email. – Bloomberg

Latvia and Romania each reported incidents involving Russian drones during another UAV barrage fired at Ukraine over the weekend, a sign of increasing aerial threats posed to countries in the region. – Bloomberg

Brooke Sample writes: To keep fringe parties at bay and remain a dependable partner for international allies, the country desperately needs to rediscover its economic and political mojo. If not, a fretful Germany could become a problem for Europe and the world. Although populist groups on the left and right won more than 60% of the votes in the state of Thuringia and almost half in Saxony, the other parties have ruled out joining regional governments with the AfD, meaning it likely won’t be able to put its policies into action. – Bloomberg

The Americas

Tens of thousands of supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro took to the streets of Brazil’s biggest city Saturday on the country’s Independence Day to rally against the government and protest the Supreme Court’s ban of Elon Musk’s social-media platform X. – Wall Street Journal

Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes said he had called on X owner Elon Musk to block the accounts of criminals inciting attacks on police officers and their families. – Wall Street Journal

Tens of thousands of supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro took to the streets of Brazil’s biggest city Saturday on the country’s Independence Day to rally against the government and protest the Supreme Court’s ban of Elon Musk’s social-media platform X. – Wall Street Journal

Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes said he had called on X owner Elon Musk to block the accounts of criminals inciting attacks on police officers and their families. – Wall Street Journal

Venezuelan opposition figure Edmundo González, who the U.S. and other democracies said won the July presidential election against strongman Nicolás Maduro, arrived in Spain on Sunday to seek political asylum in a major setback for Venezuela’s democratic opposition forces. – Wall Street Journal 

Colombia’s government on Friday reached a deal with truckers to suspend a protest over a rise in diesel prices after road blockades threatened to cause food and fuel shortages in the biggest cities. – Reuters

Venezuelan opposition figure Edmundo González, who the U.S. and other democracies said won the July presidential election against strongman Nicolás Maduro, arrived in Spain on Sunday to seek political asylum in a major setback for Venezuela’s democratic opposition forces. – Wall Street Journal 

Colombia’s government on Friday reached a deal with truckers to suspend a protest over a rise in diesel prices after road blockades threatened to cause food and fuel shortages in the biggest cities. – Reuters

United States

Two decades later, Sun, now 40, was arrested this week on charges of acting as an illegal agent on behalf of China from her former perch as an aide to two New York governors. In return, she and her husband, exporter Chris Hu, allegedly received millions in kickbacks. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. officials have charged a Canadian resident with plotting to travel to New York to try to carry out a mass shooting against Jewish people on the first anniversary of the Hamas attacks in southern Israel, authorities announced Friday. – Washington Post

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Saturday that she is “probably done” serving at the highest levels of government after President Joe Biden’s term ends in January, but will likely meet again soon with her Chinese counterpart. – Reuters

U.S. House of Representatives Republicans will release a long-awaited report on Monday blasting Democratic President Joe Biden’s administration for failures surrounding the chaotic and deadly U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. – Reuters

U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and her running mate Tim Walz will tour several battleground states after her highly anticipated Tuesday debate with Republican former President Donald Trump, her campaign said on Sunday. – Reuters

Washington views Beijing as its biggest geopolitical rival, and the legislation is touted as ensuring the U.S. prevails in the competition. Many of the bills scheduled for a vote this week appear to have both Republican and Democratic support, reflecting strong consensus that congressional actions are needed to counter China. – Associated Press

Editorial: But as we wait for the fiscal crisis that may be required to galvanize entitlement reform, there is plenty that could be done to cut spending and reduce government waste. Democrats should welcome the effort as much as Republicans. Even trying could help increase public trust in government, which is reaching historic lows—22% this year in the Pew Research Center’s moving average. Mr. Musk has come up with a good idea here, and credit to Mr. Trump for seeing its substantive merit and political potential. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: The Justice Department is right to pursue the perpetrators of transnational repression. Calling attention to such outrageous behavior will help deter it. But the United States also needs to bolster the legal framework against it. FARA is essentially a registration and disclosure statute, an imperfect tool for fighting transnational repression. It could be strengthened to give law enforcement better tools to proactively identify and block repression by overseas despots. Freedom House suggested including transnational repression in the annual State Department human rights report. – Wall Street Journal

Gene Marks writes: This doubt will inevitably drive voters to seek out better, independent, objective and more reliable media sources they can trust. You’re still going to have your left and right media — that will never change — but at least it won’t be full of misinformation from China or AI-generated videos of fake events like we see now on social media. – The Hill

Defense

Passage of a six-month temporary spending bill would have widespread and devastating effects on the Defense Department, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said in a letter to key members of Congress on Sunday. – Associated Press

The Pentagon has invested $5.3 billion of congressionally appropriated money since Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine to boost US-produced munitions for the besieged nation and replenish stockpiles, mostly for the Army, according to new figures released Friday. – Bloomberg

The Air Force landed two F-35A fighters on a highway in Finland on Wednesday to practice how aircraft might operate in a high-intensity future war. – Defense News

The U.S. Army is aiming for one more major test of its Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon by the end of 2024 in order to decide whether to field it to the first unit next year, Doug Bush, the service’s acquisition chief, said Thursday. – Defense News

The Air Force is rethinking its approach to how it will fight a future air war as it considers a new path forward for its Next Generation Air Dominance fighter system, top officials said Wednesday. – Defense News

Soldiers will soon train on fewer systems and haul less gear downrange thanks to the Army’s adoption of an advanced new shoulder-launched munition. – Military.com