Fdd's overnight brief

Afghanistan

Rank-and-file Taliban fighters have been having too much fun in Kabul after seizing the Afghan capital without a fight last month, and the Taliban leadership has now issued a stern order to stop. – Wall Street Journal 

The U.S. spent $145 billion over two decades in Afghanistan to turn one of the poorest nations on earth into a self-sustaining economy—the boldest effort this century at Western nation-building. That project has largely failed. – Wall Street Journal 

Interviews with more than a dozen members of the Afghan special forces, army and police in three provinces from May to July illustrate that the collapse of security forces was not abrupt. Instead, it was a slow, painful breakdown that began months before the fall of Kabul.  – Washington Post 

Taliban authorities have put the bodies of four alleged kidnappers on public display, in a sign the militant group is returning to a harsh version of Islamic justice in Afghanistan following the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops last month. – Washington Post 

For the Ukrainians, it was a crash course in dealing with a Taliban government struggling with internal division, bureaucratic chaos and a barely controlled inclination for violence. – New York Times 

The Taliban government in Afghanistan appealed on Sunday for international flights to be resumed, promising full cooperation with airlines and saying that problems at Kabul airport had been resolved. – Reuters 

U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said on Friday that Washington condemns in the strongest terms reported comments by a Taliban official who said the group would restore the use of amputations and executions as punishment in Afghanistan. – Reuters 

Afghanistan is at risk of “imminent hunger” with winter approaching and services disrupted by the return to power of the Taliban, a UN official warned in an interview with AFP. – Agence France-Presse 

The State Department is under pressure to find creative solutions to aid vulnerable Afghans who were left behind in the evacuation now that the U.S. doesn’t have an embassy or any obvious way to facilitate their exit. – The Hill 

US President Joe Biden’s widely-criticized military withdrawal from Afghanistan could lead to the Taliban, the country’s new Islamist rulers, obtaining nuclear weapons from Pakistan, former US national security advisor John Bolton said Sunday on the WABC 770 radio station. – Jerusalem Post 

The U.S. military has identified the person who was targeted in the first of two drone strikes in Afghanistan during the withdrawal and evacuation from the country. – Washington Examiner 

Melissa Skorka writes: Mr. Haqqani marches in lockstep with his al Qaeda base. General John R. Allen, who commanded U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan from 2011 to 2013, said, “it seems impossible to imagine the U.S. and our liberal democratic allies recognizing the Islamic Emirate so long as Haqqani ‘officials’ and their allies are part of the emerging Afghan system of government.” – Wall Street Journal 

Peter Martin writes: Despite intense, bipartisan pressure in Congress to keep troops in Afghanistan or at least delay the withdrawal, President Joe Biden gave several reasons for ending America’s longest war after almost 20 years. […]It’s a tactic the U.S. has put to effect using weaponry such as Reaper drones in other places, including Syria and Somalia. The pilotless aircraft can be deployed with minimal risk to U.S. lives. But those efforts have also faced heavy criticism from human rights advocates, who say U.S. strikes too frequently miss their mark, killing innocent people and ultimately undermining U.S. interests. – Bloomberg 

Gary M. Shiffman writes: Finally, the United States can create a cacophony of voices expressing and supporting narratives to counter the Taliban. Freedom and respect for human dignity matter, and those who fight for these values will benefit from friendship with the American people. By diminishing the Taliban’s narrative, brand and funding, the U.S. can have an impact on what happens next in Afghanistan. – The Hill 

Roie Yellinek writes: All these domestic and international dynamics, including the superpower competition, are affecting the lives of hundreds of thousands of refugees. It is clear and understandable that the U.S. itself cannot take responsibility for all the refugees, and neither can Germany, France, or Italy. But just as the American government combined forces with other democracies to overthrow the Taliban, it must once again work to find the right solution for all the people and countries involved, especially in the context of the Chinese and American struggle for global influence. – Middle East Institute 

Israel

The reconstruction of homes in Gaza that were destroyed or damaged in the May conflict between Israel and Hamas will begin in the first week of October using aid from Qatar, a senior Palestinian housing official said on Sunday. – Reuters 

The Palestinian Authority urged Sudan’s government on Saturday to hand over assets it has seized as part of a crackdown targeting Sudan-based operations to fund the Palestinian militant group Hamas. – Reuters 

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas accused Israel on Friday of destroying the two-state solution with actions he said could lead Palestinians to demand equal rights within one binational state comprising Israel, the occupied West Bank and Gaza. – Reuters 

Israeli troops firing rubber bullets shot and killed a Palestinian man and injured others on Friday during clashes at a protest against Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, the Palestinian health ministry and medics said. – Reuters 

The IDF is bracing for a possible barrage of rocket fire from the Gaza Strip later on Sunday in response to the deaths of at least five Palestinians in a wave of Israeli arrest operations across the West Bank. – Jerusalem Post 

The IDF took down a Nazi flag bearing a swastika after it was hoisted by unknown perpetrators in the Palestinian town of Beit Ummar near Hebron on Saturday. – Jerusalem Post 

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett will seek to portray Israel as a global player whose expertise can offer solutions to pressing world problems during his speech at the United Nations on Monday, a senior adviser said. – Times of Israel 

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett recently told settler leaders that he pushed back against United States President Joe Biden on Iran’s nuclear program, the reopening of the American consulate in East Jerusalem, and Israeli settlement building, during his meeting with the American leader at the White House in August. – Times of Israel 

Israel has released Palestinian legislator Khalida Jarrar, a senior member of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), after two years in Israeli prison. – Times of Israel 

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett met with UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Khalifa al-Marar and Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif Al Zayani at his hotel in New York on Sunday evening, and told them that Israel’s original Arab peace partners support the Abraham Accords. – Times of Israel 

Editorial: Policy on Iran is important but that will anyhow be determined by the political echelon. Policy on the Palestinians is also important but everyone knows that not too much can happen now anyhow due to the unique makeup of the current government. Where the needle can potentially move is in the relationship between Israel and the current ruling party in the US. – Jerusalem Post 

Herb Keinon writes: A visit by Bennett to a Conservative or Reform synagogue would help rip off this mask . […]Such a visit won’t solve the problem of alienation from Israel among a swath of American Jewry, just as setting up an egalitarian prayer space at the Western Wall won’t stop this estrangement. What it will do, however, is demonstrate in a tangible way that Israel now wants to be a more inclusive place for Jews, regardless of how they pray and whom they count in a minyan. – Jerusalem Post 

Dov S. Zakheim writes: There are a variety of ways to push Jerusalem both to improve the lives of Palestinians and take a two-state solution seriously. Denying defensive systems to a state that continues to view itself as embattled is not one of them. On the contrary, it would simply reinforce Israel’s sense that its existence remains in jeopardy, with results that not only would reverse America’s ability to lower its profile in the Middle East but could drag it back into that region even more deeply, and dangerously, than ever before. – The Hill 

Ron Ben-Yishai writes: The Shin Bet and the IDF sought a large and swift operation that would demonstrate to both the Palestinian Authority and Hamas that Israel will not allow Hamas to entrench itself either in Gaza or the West Bank militarily, politically and mentally. To put it simply, Israel will not allow Hamas to coalesce Gaza and the West Bank into a single, unified front in which it controls and leads the population according to its interests and ideologies. – Ynet 

Tzippy Shmilovitz writes: If we put the progressives aside, the Democratic Party, including President Joe Biden, still overwhelmingly belongs to the older generation that supports Israel unconditionally. But the future of the Democratic Party isn’t Biden, who will soon turn 79. The future is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Cori Bush and even young Jews who support Bernie Sanders. So, in order to turn back the clock and return to the days when the U.S.’s policy vis-à-vis the Jewish state was not a wedge issue, Israel must find a way to reach out to them. – Ynet 

Amos Harel writes: Hamas faces a more difficult dilemma. Because it rules Gaza, its leaders know that rocket fire from Hamas would likely prompt a harsher Israeli response and could thereby endanger Egypt’s efforts to broker a long-term truce between Hamas and Israel. – Haaretz 

Amir Tibon writes: Bennett won’t be happy, obviously, about this new approach in Washington. But he would be wise to remember what he just learned about Israel’s friends in Washington – when he needed them last week in Congress, they came through for him. He shouldn’t agree to all of their wishes and demands, obviously, but unlike his predecessor, he should offer them constructive steps and bold ideas that can truly improve things between Israel and the Palestinians. If he fails to do that, he will discover that 420-9 was a one-time kind of margin. – Haaretz 

Jack Rosen writes: Biden will need bipartisan Congressional support for each of these, and he is now able to get it, demonstrating the true breadth of support for Israel across America under his leadership. When Naftali Bennett speaks at the UN, there’s one thing he can be assured of – that Israel’s relationship with America has never been stronger. – Times of Israel 

Lebanon

French President Emmanuel Macron urged Beirut on Friday to implement urgent reform measures and push ahead with International Monetary Fund (IMF) talks, adding that France would continue to support Lebanon. – Reuters 

The reverberations of terrorism across the oceans and war in their own neighborhood have left Lebanon and its fellow nations in the Middle East struggling with the consequences, Lebanon’s president said Friday, calling for international help to save his own crisis-hit country. – Associated Press 

Editorial: Lebanon has long been buffeted by larger geopolitical struggles. A few tankers of fuel from Iran, or a trickle of gas from Egypt, will not repair its long-mismanaged energy industry. As ever, though, fixing Lebanon’s problems is not the real goal. – The Economist 

Middle East & North Africa

Algeria may escalate its dispute with Morocco and take more steps after having cut off relations and closed airspace, a senior Algerian diplomat said on Friday. – Reuters 

President Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey still intended to buy a second batch of S-400 missile defense systems from Russia, a move that could deepen a rift with NATO ally Washington and trigger new U.S. sanctions. – Reuters 

At least 50 Huthi rebels and Yemeni pro-government troops have been killed as fighting intensifies for the city of Marib, a key battleground of the seven-year conflict, military sources said on Sunday. – Agence France-Presse 

Haisam Hassanein writes: Generally, the reduction of U.S. power does not worry Cairo in the same manner as the Gulf states in the region, which have a tight security architecture with Washington. What does concern Egypt is that the vacuum left by America will likely increase the peak of terrorism throughout the region. Hence, further crackdowns on Islamists and further efforts to regional alliances with likeminded states is likely to be the Egyptian strategy in the years to come when navigating these new regional realities. – Washington Institute 

China

Chinese authorities have seized and sold at auction tens of millions of dollars in assets owned by jailed Uyghur business owners amid a broad government campaign to assimilate ethnic minorities in the country’s northwest Xinjiang region. – Wall Street Journal 

The U.S. Justice Department agreed to allow Huawei Technologies Co. finance chief Meng Wanzhou to return to her home in China nearly three years after she was detained in Canada on behalf of the U.S., removing one irritant in a deteriorating relationship between the U.S. and China. – Wall Street Journal 

In a rapid-fire climax to a 1,030-day standoff, China welcomed home a company executive whose arrest in Canada and possible extradition to the United States made her a focus of superpower friction. – New York Times 

The release of Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou is an opportunity for a reboot of bilateral relations with the United States and Canada but “toxic political rhetoric” could still “poison” the atmosphere”, Chinese state media said on Monday. – Reuters 

The situation in the Taiwan Strait is “complex and grim”, Chinese President Xi Jinping wrote in a congratulatory letter on Sunday to the newly elected leader of Taiwan’s main opposition party, who has pledged to renew talks with Beijing. – Reuters 

China is set to debut its dedicated electronic-attack aircraft on public display at the upcoming Zhuhai airshow, giving observers a first look at the newly developed type. – Defense News 

Editorial: The Biden Administration wants better relations with China, which has been bullying U.S. envoys and refusing to cooperate on climate change (which seems to be President Biden’s main foreign-policy priority). The Huawei case looks like collateral damage in a diplomatic repair effort. The release of Messrs. Spavor and Kovrig is good news. But China, and the rest of the world, will get the message that the coercive diplomacy of hostage-taking gets results. – Wall Street Journal 

Editorial: This episode illustrates the pitfalls of growing Chinese influence over the world’s multilateral institutions. The World Bank has discontinued its “Doing Business” reports, which seems like the right call in the immediate aftermath of such a blow to its credibility. […]Ranking systems are not perfect, or incorruptible, but, at their best, they can provide a measure of transparency, in a world that needs more. – Washington Post 

Ruchir Sharma writes: What we are likely to witness over the coming months is an epic clash between a leader with supreme powers determined to change the course of his nation, and the economic constraints imposed by gargantuan debts. For now, the markets are still betting that the stakes are too high, even for a leader as powerful as Xi, to wean China suddenly off a debt-fuelled form of capitalism the world has been practising for years. – Financial Times 

Joshua P. Meltzer writes: As President Biden made clear in his speech to the UN General Assembly this week, the U.S. needs to lead a collation of countries to counter China’s strategic challenges. To do this, the U.S. will need to continuously show up, lead and demonstrate consistency of purpose. […]Leaving CPTPP was costly and China’s decision to join CPTPP has raised the stakes even higher. – The Hill 

Tom Rogan writes: China is also likely to look at the Biden administration’s decision as evidence that it should advance its climate change strategy. That is to say, Beijing’s strategy of claiming that it takes climate change seriously while demanding U.S. concessions in other areas in return for carbon emissions cuts. Coming so soon after his Afghanistan debacle, and his enabling of Vladimir Putin’s energy war on Europe , Biden’s foreign policy credibility isn’t looking great. – Washington Examiner 

Hal Brands and Michael Beckley write: The United States, then, will face not one but two tasks in dealing with China in the 2020s. It will have to continue mobilizing for long-term competition while also moving quickly to deter aggression and blunt some of the more aggressive, near-term moves Beijing may make. In other words, buckle up. The United States has been rousing itself to deal with a rising China. It’s about to discover that a declining China may be even more dangerous. – Foreign Policy 

Asia

The race to become Japan’s next prime minister has set up an unpredictable leadership election — with candidates facing challenges over the pandemic, a stagnant economy and a region increasingly dominated by China. –  Washington Post 

No official representing Myanmar will speak on Monday, the final day of the United Nations General Assembly plenary, U.N. officials said, in an apparent 11th-hour compromise that would deny a global platform to the country’s warring democratic and militarist factions. – New York Times 

An air transport mission by China’s military to island bases in the South China Sea has drawn a rebuke from Vietnam and raised concerns among security experts that Beijing is trying to normalize its activities in the disputed waters. – Wall Street Journal 

President Biden gathered the leaders of Japan, Australia and India at the White House on Friday to cement an emerging partnership of four Indo-Pacific countries, known as the Quad, united in their misgivings about China. – Washington Post 

Taiwan needs to have long-range, accurate weapons in order to properly deter a China that is rapidly developing its systems to attack the island, Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said on Monday. – Reuters 

Myanmar’s military launched air strikes at the weekend after clashes with fighters opposed to the junta in the Sagaing region, according to media and a militia member, as phone lines and the internet were also severed in some districts. – Reuters 

A British frigate was sailing through the sensitive Taiwan Strait on Monday en route to Vietnam, according to an official tweet from the vessel, in a move likely to anger Beijing amid heightened tensions between China and Taiwan. – Reuters 

Taiwan’s main opposition party elected former leader Eric Chu as its chairman on Saturday with a pledge to renew stalled talks with China, which has ramped up military and political pressure against the island Beijing claims as its own territory. – Reuters 

A Hong Kong group that organises an annual vigil on June 4 to remember protesters killed in China’s 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown will disband, it said on Saturday, after facing national security charges. – Reuters 

Harlan Ullman writes: China views AUKUS as a clear and present danger. That may not be a bad thing. But if China takes the long view, 2040 is a long way off and this consortium is ripe with pitfalls and lurking technological land mines.  Other options are feasible. Australia could lease a nuclear submarine on a trial basis. […]There are far too many unknowns and imponderables to predict with certainty how well or badly AUKUS will evolve. But as this unfolds, do not forget Skybolt. – The Hill 

Dan Hannan writes: Macron has not behaved like an ally. He has twice threatened an energy blockade against Britain, backed an export ban on Italian-manufactured vaccines that Australia had legally purchased, and supported a deal that gave China better investment access to the European Union than the Anglosphere nations have. It is hardly surprising that those nations do not turn to France when freedom is in the balance. Yet the French may benefit despite themselves from the resolve of the Anglo-Saxon powers. Not, it must be said, for the first time. – Washington Examiner 

Michael Martin writes: Under the current circumstances, the appointment of a new special representative and policy coordinator for Burma would facilitate the coordination of interagency policy on Myanmar, centralize efforts to organize multiparty opposition to the Tatmadaw’s coup, and improve communications with Congress on framing U.S. policy in Myanmar, including improved oversight and possible new legislation—all duties mentioned in the JADE Act. – Center for Strategic and International Studies 

Luke Coffey writes: Central Asia has been, is, and will continue to be an area of geopolitical importance to the United States. The situation developing in Afghanistan is a reminder of this. If the U.S. is to have a strategy to deal with the geopolitical fallout from the crisis in Afghanistan, policymakers in Washington simply cannot ignore Central Asia. Unfortunately for the U.S., the level of engagement by Washington in the region has been minimal in recent years. The U.S. needs a new approach to protect its national interest in the region. – Heritage Institute 

Europe

Germany faces weeks and perhaps months of uncertainty as Sunday’s narrow victory for the center-left in national elections left open the shape and agenda of its next government and offered little clarity about who would succeed Chancellor Angela Merkel. – Wall Street Journal 

An Italian court released a former leader of Spain’s Catalonia region from jail on Friday, a day after his arrest on a warrant seeking his return to Spain for trial over a failed independence bid he led four years ago. – New York Times 

Two Serbian warplanes flew close to a border crossing with its former province of Kosovo on September 26 amid an intensifying dispute over license plates as U.S. and European Union officials scramble to calm the situation. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

French President Emmanuel Macron spoke over the phone on Friday with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, said Macron’s office, during which Johnson had told Macron that Britain wanted to restore its co-operation with France. – Reuters 

Catalan separatist leader Carles Puigdemont said on Saturday he would be in Sardinia on Oct. 4 to attend a court hearing on his European arrest warrant after being kept in police custody in Italy for less then 24 hours. – Reuters 

The European Union warned Britain on Sunday that triggering a safeguard clause in its Brexit deal governing trade with Northern Ireland was “not helpful” and the country should instead pursue solutions. – Reuters 

The United Nations human rights chief called on Belarus’ neighbours on Friday to protect asylum seekers after four people died near the Polish border earlier this week amid a surge in illegal migration across the European Union’s eastern frontier. – Reuters 

Italian Foreign Affairs Minister Luigi Di Maio said on Sunday that the Taliban government in Afghanistan could not be recognised, but urged foreign governments to prevent a financial collapse there that would spark massive flows of migrants. – Reuters 

Henry Foy and Sam Fleming write: To optimists, an EU partnership with the UK could provide a way to draw a line under the bitter Brexit withdrawal agreement negotiations and pivot relations towards a more constructive footing. […]The most urgent question facing the EU now, however, is how to respond to the realisation that while America’s rhetoric may have changed from the Trump years, its intensifying focus on its rivalry with China has not. – Financial Times 

Tom McTague writes: When you step back, it is hard to avoid concluding that there are as many similarities between Britain and France as there are differences. The mirror they provide for each other has long projected back an image they wish to see, obscuring the reality of the challenge they both face. – The Atlantic 

John R. Deni writes: Worrisomely, the exercise may result in a permanent Russian presence in Belarus. Meanwhile, Belarus has recently weaponized migrants, sending thousands of Iraqis and sub-Saharan Africans across the border into Lithuania over the last year. […] Lithuania and its Baltic state neighbors are punching above their weight within NATO, consistently bearing more than their share of the common defense burden. But Washington needs to fix the holes in NATO’s deterrent posture in the region and the glaring lack of persistent U.S. presence. – Defense News 

The Americas

Venezuela has agreed to a key contract to swap its heavy oil for Iranian condensate that it can use to improve the quality of its tar-like crude, with the first cargoes due this week, five people close to the deal said. – Reuters 

Mexico has sent a letter to Israel’s government urging it to facilitate the extradition of a former Mexican official in charge of a controversial investigation into the disappearance of 43 student teachers seven years ago, a senior official said on Friday. – Reuters 

Up to 4,000 migrants, most of them Haitians, have passed through the treacherous jungles of the Darien Gap in Panama on the Colombian border as they make their way north to the United States, two Panamanian government sources said. – Reuters 

Canada’s “eyes are wide open” when it comes to normalizing its relationship with China, Foreign Minister Marc Garneau said on Sunday, two days after the release of a Huawei executive following almost three years of house arrest in Vancouver. – Reuters 

Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes: The border mess is only the latest fallout from a strategy that puts the accumulation of power by Democrats above national security. Flying below the radar is another troubling Biden project: resuming the effort, begun during the Obama administration, to impose progressivism on Guatemala. […] So why is Mr. Blinken engaged in what appears to be a smear of this respected legal mind, who is also a U.S. ally? Americans have no way of knowing because the evidence is being withheld by the U.S. government. – Wall Street Journal 

David Wilezol writes: The U.S. also has an obligation to confront China’s attempts to create economic dependencies in the hemisphere. But the Development Finance Corporation’s efforts to support projects in Latin America seem to have cooled. […]Continued failure to engage with greater seriousness of purpose and respect for democratically elected governments will mean a generational erosion of the distinction between what the U.S. and China stand for. A drastic erosion of U.S. interests in Latin America won’t be far behind. – Washington Examiner 

Cybersecurity

China on Friday escalated its crackdown on cryptocurrency trading, issuing a nationwide ban on crypto mining and reiterating that all virtual currencies were considered illegal in the country. – Washington Post 

The European Union’s foreign policy chief has warned Russia against carrying out “malicious cyber activities” on the eve of elections in Germany that Berlin fears are being targeted by Kremlin-backed hackers. – Washington Post 

Kiril Avramov writes: To make informed decisions, lawmakers need to continue to solicit an intelligence community assessment on the nature of Russian state involvement in the ransomware industry. And, although it may seem counterintuitive, policymakers should attempt to secure limited Russian cooperation on developing norms against AI-enabled ransomware attacks. – The Hill 

Long War

Islamic State’s Afghan franchise, which is also known as ISIS-K, poses a threat to the country’s new rulers because it was formed by former Afghan and Pakistani Taliban members who thought that the insurgent movement wasn’t radical enough. – Wall Street Journal 

In a critically acclaimed documentary on the rescue of women and girls sexually enslaved by ISIS, tension-filled scenes play out in a Syrian detention camp and later in a safe house where victims are faced with agonizing choices. – New York Times 

A suicide car bomb killed at least eight people in the Somali capital on Saturday at a street junction near the president’s palace, police said, and al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab said it was behind the attack which targeted a convoy going into the palace. – Reuters 

A French serviceman was killed early on Friday in a clash with an armed militant group in Mali, French officials said. – Reuters 

Rwandan President Paul Kagame said the country cannot stay forever in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, where allied Rwandan and Mozambican troops have been recapturing areas from Islamist militants since July. – Reuters 

When U.S. Central Command authorizes strikes against groups like ISIS-K or al Qaida in Afghanistan, they won’t be negotiating with the Taliban about where and when they can drop bombs. – Military Times 

Alex Tarquinio writes:The young Afghan democracy was far from perfect. Voter turnout had been low in recent elections because of Taliban attacks on polling places and widespread sentiment that the government was corrupt. Still, before the Taliban returned to power, the political transitions had all been democratic and freedom of expression was arguably better than it had been during South Korea’s early years. […]Historically, had the US walked away from its role in South Korea, millions more Koreans might have grown up in an oppressive gulag, facing the prospect of hunger and arbitrary group punishment. –New York Post